Conversations with Tyler

Joe Studwell on Africa, Asia, and What Development Actually Requires

February 18, 2026

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  • Population density, rather than governance alone, is argued to be the biggest historical constraint on African development, though density alone is insufficient for success. 
  • Despite political volatility, the private sector in Africa, particularly agriculture, is showing strong, historically fast growth and fostering the creation of diversified conglomerates. 
  • Industrial policy has historically been a highly effective engine for development globally, but its success depends critically on effective application, such as incorporating competition, which failed in places like India. 

Segments

Population Density and Development
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(00:01:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Low population density, exacerbated by disease burden, has historically been Africa’s primary development obstacle, overriding governance issues in importance.
  • Summary: Increased population density is cited as a factor contributing to Nigeria’s recent, albeit uneven, improvement compared to its post-independence struggles. The lack of density in Africa, one-fifth that of Asia in 1960, is presented as a more significant barrier than academic literature often suggests regarding governance or strife. Modern mining, exemplified by Botswana, does not require significant labor, thus low density is not a barrier for resource-dependent economies.
African Growth Stability Concerns
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(00:06:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Stable, predictable growth rates are crucial for signaling private sector confidence, a lesson from East Asia that many African nations, including Botswana, struggle to maintain.
  • Summary: Botswana’s success is attributed to well-managed diamond revenues stabilizing growth, but recent political feuds and rising corruption indices raise concerns about its trajectory. The failure of many African states to achieve stable growth prevents the private investment necessary for rapid development. Tanzania’s recent political volatility contrasts sharply with earlier market-oriented optimism surrounding the country.
Private Sector Traction in Agriculture
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(00:10:15)
  • Key Takeaway: Despite poor governance, Africa has seen the world’s fastest agricultural GDP growth since 2000, driven by farmer-led micro-investments like irrigation.
  • Summary: Agricultural GDP growth in Africa has averaged 4.5% since 2000, significantly outpacing other regions and closing the yield gap with Asia in some areas. This growth is largely due to farmer-led irrigation projects, contrasting with the decay often seen in large, state-led infrastructure projects. This agricultural success is now fostering the creation of large, diversified, cross-border agribusiness conglomerates similar to those in Southeast Asia.
Manufacturing Future and Automation
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(00:12:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Africa has a viable manufacturing future, starting with labor-intensive goods, as its low labor costs (as low as one-tenth of China’s) outweigh the current inflexibility and high upfront cost of advanced robotics.
  • Summary: African manufacturing will likely begin with textiles and garments, capitalizing on labor costs as low as $60 per month in places like Ethiopia or Madagascar. Robotics and AI are unlikely to derail this path because they lack the flexibility of human labor when demand fluctuates, as seen in the recent struggles of automated warehousing systems. Cheap industrial electricity, achievable through solar, wind, and hydro (as demonstrated by Ethiopia), is a critical input that Africa can secure.
Infrastructure Maintenance and Ports
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(00:20:42)
  • Key Takeaway: While infrastructure like roads has improved significantly across Africa, the historical problem of state-led projects decaying due to poor maintenance persists.
  • Summary: Road density has seen significant success over the last 50 years, with countries like Rwanda showcasing high-quality road networks. Farmer-led irrigation demonstrates a successful micro-approach to infrastructure building, unlike many large, often foreign-funded, state projects that fall into disuse. The East African port system remains a significant bottleneck, though Djibouti benefits from hosting international military bases.
Leadership and Human Capital Progress
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(00:24:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Positive political leadership, exemplified by Benin’s sensible development approach and Nigeria’s removal of the politically difficult petrol subsidy, is emerging alongside massive historical gains in African literacy.
  • Summary: Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya show strong performance in producing educated and entrepreneurial people, while Ethiopia and Rwanda have prioritized vocational education. Post-independence, African governments achieved the world’s fastest development of a formal education system, raising literacy from 16% in 1960 to levels sometimes exceeding South Asia’s. Tanzania’s government under Nyerere famously mobilized resources to increase literacy from 10% to 80% in one generation.
Colonialism and Financial Centers
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(00:30:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The duration of colonization is a poor predictor of current success, and the UAE is likely to become a major financial hub competing with Mauritius for African investment flows.
  • Summary: The qualitative differences in how colonialism was administered matter more than the simple duration of the colonial period. Investment funds are currently favoring populous nations like Nigeria and Ethiopia, regardless of strict East/West regional alignment. Special Economic Zones have historically failed unless they receive focused political attention or are managed externally, such as by Chinese entities.
Asian Challenges: Thailand and Depopulation
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(00:39:42)
  • Key Takeaway: Thailand’s political messiness is long-standing and has not significantly derailed its economy, while East Asian nations like South Korea and Japan face a more severe, potentially unsolvable, crisis due to rapid depopulation.
  • Summary: Thailand’s economy has functioned adequately despite chronic political instability and the strong currency driven by tourism. South Korea and Japan face a demographic trap where low birth rates will shrink their economies, and their cultural aversion to immigration makes foreign labor an unlikely solution. Japan’s massive debt-to-GDP ratio (200-230%) might only be solvable through sustained inflation, similar to Britain after the Napoleonic Wars.
Industrial Policy Effectiveness and Failures
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(00:45:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Industrial policy, defined by targeting cheap money at manufacturing and rewarding exporters, has been globally successful, but its failure in places like Brazil and India stems from poor, non-competitive application.
  • Summary: Effective industrial policy creates jobs and raises the technological level of an economy, though exiting the policy framework proves difficult, often leading to problematic trade surpluses. Brazil’s long-term underperformance is linked to the poor treatment of smallholder agriculture and inconsistent policy application, despite successes like Embraer. India’s industrial policy failed because leaders misunderstood that competition is fundamental, opting instead to simply pick winners without subjecting them to market pressure.
Future Research and Conclusion
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(00:51:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Joe Studwell’s next project will focus on the developmental history of the UK, aiming to explore aspects of its economy not clearly covered in existing literature.
  • Summary: Studwell plans to research the UK’s development, including the economic situation in its post-industrial cities, as he has not previously written about his home country. He reiterates that both How Asia Works and How Africa Works are essential reading for understanding development economics. The conversation concludes with thanks and recommendations for the podcast.