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- The conversation revisits the claim that trans identification is plummeting, noting that while researcher Jean Twangay's new data from the Cooperative Election Study suggests a recent drop, the methodology of previous claims by Eric Kaufman was flawed because it failed to ask about trans identity directly.
- The hosts discuss the inherent difficulty in accurately measuring identity trends, highlighting the conceptual confusion between 'trans' and 'non-binary' identities and the influence of social contagion on youth identity formation.
- The core of the premium discussion revolves around a specific online conflict on Bluesky involving CEO Jay Graber, user Jerry Chen, and a request to ban Jesse Single, which Jay Graber responded to cryptically with the word 'waffles'.
Segments
Road Trip and Housing Affordability
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(00:00:43)
- Key Takeaway: Middle America offers significant housing affordability, with houses available for $150,000, contrasting sharply with coastal elite areas, though job availability remains a concern for non-remote workers.
- Summary: The hosts discuss driving across the country, noting the stark difference between beautiful and boring American drives. They observe that large swaths of the country allow middle-class individuals to purchase a house for around $150,000. The primary counterargument to moving to these affordable areas is the lack of suitable employment for those who cannot work remotely.
Revisiting Trans Identification Data
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(00:05:19)
- Key Takeaway: Researcher Jean Twangay’s analysis of the Cooperative Election Study (CES) data shows a recent drop in both transgender and non-binary identification rates between 2021 and 2023, contradicting Eric Kaufman’s initial flawed methodology.
- Summary: The segment reviews Eric Kaufman’s previous claim about plummeting trans identification, which was based on surveys that did not directly ask about trans identity. Jean Twangay’s subsequent analysis using the CES data, which does ask directly, indicates a drop in both trans (cut in half from a 6% peak) and non-binary (cut in half from a 5% peak) identification over a few years. The CES data collection might be compromised in the future due to potential NSF funding mandates related to the Trump administration.
Social Contagion and Identity Theory
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(00:10:27)
- Key Takeaway: The concept that youth gender identity is influenced by peer and cultural factors, often termed social contagion, is presented as an almost undeniable reality, despite being highly controversial among certain progressive circles.
- Summary: The hosts argue that it is incoherent to suggest a 15-year-old’s sense of gender identity is completely uninfluenced by culture and peers. They note that the umbrella category of ’trans’ often conflates deeply dysphoric individuals with those exploring new labels, leading to internal tension within the community. The speaker mentions that speculating on social contagion has historically led to severe backlash against him.
Bluesky Waffles-Gate Conflict
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(00:16:40)
- Key Takeaway: A conflict on Bluesky erupted when user Jerry Chen referenced a meme about hating pancakes, prompting CEO Jay Graber to acknowledge the platform’s toxicity, immediately followed by another user demanding Jesse Single be banned, to which Graber responded only with ‘waffles’.
- Summary: The segment details the ‘Waffles-gate’ controversy originating from a meme about misinterpreting statements (liking pancakes implies hating waffles). Bluesky CEO Jay Graber acknowledged the toxicity on his platform, stating, ‘Social media doesn’t have to be this way,’ before being directly asked if Jesse Single had been banned. Graber’s singular response, ‘waffles,’ became the focal point of the ensuing dispute over moderation.
Jesse Single’s Bluesky Blocking Metrics
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(00:20:37)
- Key Takeaway: Jesse Single is the third most blocked user on Bluesky (84,000 blocks), behind JD Vance and the White House account, a metric inflated by Bluesky’s unique feature allowing users to subscribe to block lists.
- Summary: Jesse Single clarifies his high blocking count on Bluesky, noting he was once the most blocked until the Trump White House joined. Bluesky’s blocking functionality allows users to subscribe to block lists, meaning following disfavored figures like Single or JD Vance automatically racks up blocks. A Change.org petition demanding Single be removed, signed by nearly 30,000 people, accused him of distributing private medical information, which he denies.