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TP15: Ben Black Akkadian Ventures🏆 | Secondaries Secrets 💎 | RAISE Conf 🎯 | Vercel $9B 🚀

December 10, 2025

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  • Managing Limited Partners (LPs) through consistent communication like quarterly updates and personal calls is highlighted as a crucial, often underestimated, aspect of a fund manager's job, more important than just deal selection. 
  • SpaceX's reported $800 billion valuation, doubling in months, raises skepticism among the hosts regarding its 50x revenue multiple compared to OpenAI's valuation, suggesting the valuation is heavily based on future potential, particularly the launch business. 
  • The Netflix $83 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers is seen as a powerful combination of Netflix's distribution strength and Warner Brothers' rich content library, though its approval faces significant antitrust scrutiny based on consumer welfare standards. 
  • The RAISE Conference, founded by Ben Black, evolved from a tactical gathering for fund entrepreneurs into a highly selective event where LPs are now vetted, with over 200 rejected last year for not being "real enough, big enough." 
  • Emerging fund managers must establish a clear competitive advantage and build a powerful community/ecosystem around their thesis, as generic claims of being smart or well-connected are insufficient. 
  • Venture managers should adopt a 'fearful when others are greedy' approach to liquidity, selling material portions of winning deals (e.g., 5x return in years 3-5) rather than riding winners indefinitely due to inherent business volatility. 

Segments

LP Management Importance
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Managing LPs is a critical job function, often prioritized over deal investing by many managers.
  • Summary: Managing LPs is highlighted as an extremely important part of a fund manager’s job, contrary to the common belief that the role is solely about investing. Ben Black notes rejecting approximately 200 LPs last year for not meeting specific criteria regarding ‘realness’ or size. The importance of LP management is reinforced later by stating that personal calls, quarterly updates, and annual visits matter more than picking unicorns.
SpaceX Valuation Skepticism
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(00:00:56)
  • Key Takeaway: SpaceX’s leap to an $800B valuation, doubling in months, is viewed skeptically as potentially driven by ego to surpass OpenAI’s $500B valuation.
  • Summary: SpaceX floated a primary round valuation of $800 billion, doubling its previous Q3 valuation of $400 billion, with an IPO potentially slated for the second half of 2026. The hosts question this valuation, noting it approaches 50 times revenue, and speculate if Elon Musk is motivated to leapfrog Sam Altman’s OpenAI valuation. The bet on SpaceX is seen as valuing future potential, especially the launch business, more than current revenue.
Anthropic IPO Preparation
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(00:05:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic hiring IPO attorneys suggests serious intent toward a public offering, though achieving a $300B private valuation requires an even larger IPO.
  • Summary: Anthropic is reportedly hiring Wilson Sonsini for an IPO, potentially targeting 2026, following a recent $300 billion valuation raise. The hosts believe Anthropic can go public given its scale (over $10B ARR), but achieving a valuation that high would necessitate a massive half-trillion-dollar IPO. Anthropic’s focus appears enterprise-driven, making it a challenger to OpenAI’s consumer lead.
Anthropic Acquisition Strategy
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(00:07:18)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic is exploring acquisitions, like the potential purchase of developer tool BUN, leveraging its high private valuation as valuable stock currency.
  • Summary: Anthropic is reportedly in talks to acquire developer tool BUN, which has achieved $1 billion ARR on its Cloud Code Agent. Given Anthropic’s $300 billion valuation, using stock for M&A becomes a viable strategy, especially if cash reserves are being heavily utilized for CapEx and hiring. This move aligns with pursuing a build-and-buy strategy in the competitive AI landscape.
OpenAI’s Internal ‘Code Red’
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(00:08:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Sam Altman’s internal ‘code red’ declaration is interpreted as a motivational tactic to focus OpenAI employees following the Google Gemini 3 rollout.
  • Summary: OpenAI issued a ‘code red’ internally, likely accelerating the release of their next GPT/ChatGPT version, possibly in response to negative perceptions after Google’s Gemini 3 launch. The term is viewed as a motivational tool used by leadership to ensure employee focus on core priorities, similar to using terms like ’turnaround’ in past business crises. Despite the internal alert, OpenAI’s revenue and growth remain substantial.
Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers
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(00:10:35)
  • Key Takeaway: The proposed $83B Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers creates a content distribution giant, but faces significant antitrust challenges regarding market dominance.
  • Summary: Netflix announced an $83 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers, which possesses an exceptionally rich content library including DC properties and historical classics. The merger combines Netflix’s leading distribution (46% US viewing share) with A-grade content, potentially leapfrogging competitors like YouTube and Disney in screen time share. Litigation risk is high, depending on whether regulators apply the consumer welfare standard or focus on curbing dominant market share.
Prediction Markets Valuation Surge
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(00:23:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Prediction markets like Kalshi are experiencing massive valuation growth, driven by increasing legalization and adoption of sports betting in the US.
  • Summary: Kalshi recently raised at an $11 billion valuation, marking a significant jump from $2 billion in June, with investors including Sequoia and Paradigm. This growth is fueled by an 8x increase in annualized trading volume, largely due to the decreasing regulatory uncertainty surrounding sports betting across US states. This trend suggests prediction markets are successfully capturing market share from established players like DraftKings.
Harvey AI Valuation Spike
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(00:25:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Harvey AI achieved an $8 billion valuation in its third raise this year, reflecting rapid growth from $3B in February, supported by over $100 million in revenue.
  • Summary: Harvey AI secured a $160 million Series F at an $8 billion valuation, marking a significant markup from its $3 billion valuation in February. The legal AI company has surpassed $100 million in revenue, translating to an approximately 80X revenue multiple based on mid-year figures. Sequoia, an early investor, has seen substantial markups across its investments in fast-growing companies like Harvey and Kalshi.
Databricks Valuation Rationale
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(00:27:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Databricks’ current $134B valuation is justified by its sustained 50-60% growth rate, which is double Snowflake’s rate, despite a higher multiple compared to its peer.
  • Summary: Databricks is now valued north of $130 billion, trading at about 32 times sales, a 50% premium to Snowflake’s multiple at a comparable revenue stage. The justification lies in Databricks maintaining a growth rate nearly double that of Snowflake over the past year. The market appears to have corrected upward for Databricks’ continued success in its category since earlier valuations were considered potentially too low.
Meta Cuts Metaverse Spending
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(00:29:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Meta is reallocating significant capital from its Reality Labs (Metaverse) division, which has burned $73B-$77B, to fund massive AI infrastructure CapEx.
  • Summary: Meta is implementing headcount cuts in the Metaverse division as the Reality Labs segment has burned tens of billions of dollars without sufficient revenue returns. The company is prioritizing AI, planning $70 billion in CapEx next year, primarily for AI infrastructure. This shift reflects a necessary reallocation of resources from the unsuccessful ‘all-in’ bet on the Metaverse toward the current high-momentum AI sector.
Ben Black’s Secondary Origins
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(00:30:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Ben Black pivoted to secondary investing after losing his largest LP in the 2008 crisis, learning the business by solving liquidity needs for individuals, including a seller who bought a green Ferrari.
  • Summary: Ben Black started Akkadian Ventures after a traumatic seed fund experience in 2008 where he lost 15/26ths of his capital from one bankrupt LP. He began direct secondaries in 2010, focusing on smaller deals ($1M tickets) that larger secondary firms ignored, leading to early wins like DocuSign and Splunk in 2011. He learned the diverse motivations of sellers, including divorce settlements and purchasing luxury items like a green Ferrari.
Secondary Market Seller Motivations
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(00:41:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Common liquidity drivers for secondary sellers include buying a house, covering college tuition, medical emergencies, and divorce scenarios, often necessitating help from wealth managers.
  • Summary: A significant market need exists for liquidity among Bay Area tech employees holding illiquid equity, potentially numbering in the tens of thousands. Wealth managers are a key source of sellers because banks often refuse to lend against concentrated, illiquid positions. The need for liquidity is often immediate, driven by major life events like purchasing real estate or covering tuition.
LP Management and Reporting
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(00:52:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Regular, personal LP engagement—including in-person meetings and candid calls—is vital for investor relations, especially as many fund managers fail to send consistent quarterly updates.
  • Summary: Ben Black emphasizes that personal LP management is crucial for success, noting that many fund managers neglect sending regular updates, which creates a lost opportunity for building investor trust. For RIAs like Akkadian Ventures, detailed reporting is mandatory, meaning the necessary color and context must be delivered via personal calls. Sending back capital, even a small amount, is highly valued by LPs in the current tough market environment.
RA Status and Deal Act
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(00:53:54)
  • Key Takeaway: Secondary funds must become Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) upon reaching $150M AUM, subjecting them to strict marketing rules that primary VCs avoid, but proposed legislation could change this.
  • Summary: VCs typically must register as RIAs when assets under management exceed $150 million if their portfolio includes non-qualifying investments like secondaries or fund-of-funds. RIA status imposes conservative reporting rules, including leverage disclosure limitations and the ‘cherry-picking’ rule requiring reporting bad deals alongside good ones. The proposed Deal Act aims to allow VCs to engage in secondary investing without triggering RIA status, which would be a major change for secondary firms.
RAISE Conference Genesis
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(00:57:55)
  • Key Takeaway: The RAISE Conference was founded to serve ‘fund entrepreneurs’ by providing tactical content on fund operations, filling a gap where no similar events existed for fund managers.
  • Summary: The RAISE Conference began 10 years ago because Ben Black observed a lack of conferences focused on the operational challenges of running a fund, contrasting with the abundance of entrepreneurship events. The inaugural event in 2015 hosted 140 people, featuring tactical advice on LPAs, fund modeling, and hiring from established fund managers. The conference now receives over 1,000 applications from emerging managers competing for limited stage spots.
RAISE Conference Origin and Growth
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(00:58:36)
  • Key Takeaway: The RAISE Conference started by offering tactical content for fund entrepreneurs, evolving when Ben Black realized VCs primarily wanted to pitch their funds to LPs.
  • Summary: Ben Black initiated the RAISE Conference because there were no events focused on fund entrepreneurs, initially featuring tactical basics like LPA creation and fund modeling. The format shifted dramatically when he allowed friends to pitch their funds, observing that LPs were highly engaged in watching VCs pitch live. This led to the current structure where emerging managers compete for stage spots in front of LPs, with over 1,000 applications received annually.
RAISE Conference LP Selection
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(01:01:08)
  • Key Takeaway: The conference’s major breakthrough came from creating an LP selection committee, which attracted higher-quality LPs and subsequently increased demand from applying VCs.
  • Summary: The breakthrough moment for RAISE was establishing an LP selection committee featuring top-tier firms like Sapphire and San Jose, which validated the event’s quality. This structure allowed anyone to apply while ensuring high-quality LPs were present, causing the conference to significantly grow. Ben Black now rejects approximately 200 LPs annually to maintain the bar and ensure the room ratio favors VCs seeking capital.
Advice for Emerging Managers
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(01:03:41)
  • Key Takeaway: Successful emerging managers must clearly articulate their competitive advantage and build a powerful, differentiated ecosystem, rather than relying solely on being well-connected or smart.
  • Summary: Firms that succeed, like Fifth Wall, define a clear thesis and build an ecosystem around it, making their competitive advantage immediately visible to LPs. Differentiation is crucial because many emerging managers sound the same; simply knowing people or being smart is not enough to stand out among thousands of applicants. Building an ecosystem translates directly into winning deals and securing competitive positioning.
Importance of VC Partnerships
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(01:06:16)
  • Key Takeaway: Strong, pre-existing personal trust and positive partnership dynamics are core to withstanding the uncertainty and inevitable deal blow-ups inherent in venture capital.
  • Summary: Ben Black views his firm’s strong partnership with long-time friends as his greatest accomplishment, enabling them to weather poor financial results or external problems. He is skeptical of partnerships formed between people who do not know each other well, given the 10-12 year fund life ahead. In a business based on judgment calls and uncertainty, mutual trust between partners is essential for support and longevity.
Selling Winners and DPI Strategy
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(01:08:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Managers should sell material portions of investments when they feel safest and the returns are high (e.g., 5x in years 3-5), counteracting the urge to ride winners forever.
  • Summary: The hardest psychological aspect of selling is taking chips off the table when a deal seems invincible and poised to maximize fund returns. Ben Black enforces a rule to sell at least half of his position when achieving a 5x return on a deal within years three to five, as this constitutes a material impact (0.3x to 0.5x of the fund). This strategy mitigates the risk that unforeseen volatility could knock an otherwise invincible business off track.
Vercel Valuation Analysis
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(01:10:30)
  • Key Takeaway: Vercel commands a high valuation premium (45x revenue multiple vs. DigitalOcean’s 5x) due to its explosive 70-100% YoY growth, driven by its AI cloud platform and superior front-end developer experience.
  • Summary: Vercel raised at a $9 billion valuation based on a $200 million revenue run rate as of May, demonstrating significant progress from its prior $3.25 billion valuation a year earlier. The company’s growth is fueled by its AI-powered V0 product and SDK, which is setting industry benchmarks in the developer ops category. Vercel focuses on lightweight, efficient front-end hosting, contrasting with broader, clunkier platforms like DigitalOcean, justifying its premium valuation despite current unprofitability.