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TP13: Emily Zheng of Pitchbook 📊 | VC Secondaries Hit $95B 🔥 | Ramp $32B 💳

November 25, 2025

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  • The venture secondary market is now estimated at $95 billion annually, positioning it as the third major exit option alongside IPOs ($105B) and M&A ($107B). 
  • The secondary market exhibits extreme concentration, with the top five companies accounting for 54.7% of all trading volume, while companies that last raised primary rounds between 2020 and 2022 face median secondary discounts ranging from 33.6% to 61.5%. 
  • The use of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) in the secondary market has exploded, with deal count increasing by 682% and capital raised surging by 1,340% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2023. 
  • Hive is attempting to raise its Series B round at a $650 million valuation directly on its own platform, using the recent Forge acquisition valuation as a comparable metric. 
  • Ramp achieved a $32 billion valuation, doubling from $16 billion in five months, driven by over $1 billion in ARR and 133% YoY growth, positioning it among the top fintech companies. 
  • The spend management space is highly competitive, but Ramp and Brex appear to be separating themselves as the leading players, with Ramp focusing more on SMBs and efficiency while Brex targets high-growth, VC-backed companies. 

Segments

Market Volatility and Macro Headwinds
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(00:01:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Bitcoin dropped 35% from its $125K peak to $84K, coinciding with negative market sentiment affecting high-risk AI-adjacent companies due to soft jobs data and low consumer confidence.
  • Summary: Bitcoin fell significantly from its peak, and the Mag 7 ETF also declined despite a year-to-date gain, signaling negative market sentiment. Weak macro signals, including soft jobs numbers and consumer confidence hitting post-2009 lows, are contributing to market nervousness. Uncertainty regarding the Fed’s guaranteed rate cut in December is also a major factor influencing market behavior.
AI Race: Gemini 3 vs. Laggards
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(00:07:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Google’s Gemini 3 launch was acknowledged as a significant positive, driving a nearly 7% stock increase and suggesting Google is re-entering the AI lead, notably running the model on its own TPUs.
  • Summary: The release of Gemini 3 garnered positive acknowledgment from competitors like Sam Altman, suggesting Google is regaining attention in the AI race. The model’s impressive visual reasoning capabilities are noted, especially since it runs on Google’s proprietary TPUs rather than relying solely on NVIDIA GPUs. Successfully running major models on TPUs frees up scarce NVIDIA GPUs to power Google Cloud, creating a potential double benefit for the company.
Anthropic’s Massive Funding Round
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(00:10:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic raised $15 billion from Microsoft and NVIDIA at a $350 billion valuation, signaling that major players are spreading their bets across competing AI camps.
  • Summary: Anthropic secured $15 billion, with $5 billion from Microsoft and $10 billion from NVIDIA, establishing a $350 billion valuation. This investment suggests that Microsoft and NVIDIA are backing multiple leading AI players (OpenAI and Anthropic), mixing the previously perceived distinct camps. NVIDIA is now invested in nearly all major AI entities, indicating a less siloed competitive landscape than previously assumed.
Ramp’s Valuation Surge
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(00:12:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Ramp doubled its valuation from $16 billion to $32 billion in approximately five months, driven by surpassing $1 billion in ARR and achieving triple-digit annual growth.
  • Summary: Ramp raised $300 million at a $32 billion valuation, a substantial increase from its July valuation of $23 billion and its prior $16 billion valuation. This rapid valuation doubling occurred while the company passed $1 billion in ARR, growing over 100% year-over-year and remaining profitable. This places Ramp among the top four largest fintech valuations, alongside companies like Stripe and Revolut.
Prediction Market Valuation Arms Race
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(00:14:38)
  • Key Takeaway: Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly escalating valuations, with Kalshi jumping from $5B to $11B in under a quarter, while Polymarket seeks a $12B-$15B round shortly after an $8B valuation.
  • Summary: Kalshi raised a round at an $11 billion valuation, more than doubling its valuation from just two months prior when it was valued at $5 billion. Its rival, Polymarket, is reportedly seeking a new round at $12 to $15 billion, just weeks after closing a round at $8 billion. These platforms are aggressively positioning themselves to compete with established sports betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kraken’s Crypto Validation by Citadel
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(00:16:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Kraken’s $200 million raise backed by Citadel Securities at a $20 billion valuation validates its strategy of focusing on federal regulation, security, and advanced trading features.
  • Summary: Citadel Securities’ investment in Kraken signals strong validation for Kraken’s focus on tight security, compliance, and features required by advanced traders, contrasting with Coinbase’s beginner focus. This backing is significant given Citadel’s historical skepticism toward crypto, suggesting a market shift toward supporting regulated digital asset platforms. Kraken is positioned to compete effectively against Coinbase and Binance by prioritizing regulatory adherence.
Secondary Market Size and Concentration
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(00:20:01)
  • Key Takeaway: The VC secondary market reached an annualized value of $95 billion, making it comparable to IPOs and M&A, but trading volume remains highly concentrated in the top 20 companies.
  • Summary: The secondary market’s annualized value is approximately $95 billion, establishing it as the third major exit pillar alongside IPOs ($105B) and M&A ($107B). Direct secondaries account for $80 billion of this total, fueled by rising valuations like Anthropic’s tripling in value over a few months. However, the top five companies drive 54.7% of all secondary trading volume, indicating significant market concentration.
Explosion of Secondary SPVs
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(00:39:36)
  • Key Takeaway: The use of SPVs in the secondary market has seen explosive growth, with the number of secondary SPVs increasing 682% and capital raised surging 1,340% in Q1-Q3 2025 versus 2023.
  • Summary: SPVs are becoming a cornerstone for emerging managers seeking access to high-conviction deals, especially given the concentration in the top companies. Data shows a 682% increase in secondary SPV deal count and a 1,340% surge in capital raised when comparing the first three quarters of 2025 to 2023. While 83% of SPVs are single-layer, these vehicles offer fund managers flexibility for managing liquidity and handling follow-on opportunities.
Discount Dynamics by Vintage Year
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(00:49:09)
  • Key Takeaway: Companies with primary rounds since 2024 trade at minimal secondary discounts (0-8.5%), whereas those last funded between 2020 and 2022 face steep haircuts (33.6%-61.5%).
  • Summary: The discount applied in secondary trades is heavily dependent on the timing of the last primary financing round. Recent 2024+ fundraisers show strong valuation support, while older 2020-2022 vintages reflect the compression from the peak ‘Zirp era’ valuations. This disparity shows that companies failing to mark down valuations post-peak are now facing significant price adjustments in the secondary market.
Platform Consolidation and Hive’s Raise
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(01:01:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The acquisition of secondary platforms Forge Global by Schwab and EquityZen by Morgan Stanley signals industry consolidation due to tough market conditions and concentrated deal flow.
  • Summary: The acquisitions of platforms like Forge Global (acquired at a premium to its depressed public valuation) and EquityZen indicate that consolidation is occurring because the market stalemate since 2022 has been difficult for standalone platforms. Hive, the remaining independent player, is attempting to raise a Series B at a $650 million valuation using its own platform, benchmarking against the Forge acquisition price.
Acquisition Comps and Hive Raise
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(01:04:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Hive is leveraging recent secondary market acquisitions like Forge for its Series B valuation target.
  • Summary: The acquisition of EquityZen likely resulted in a payday between half a billion to a billion dollars for its investors. Forge, having gone public over a $2 billion valuation, was acquired at a substantial premium after its valuation dropped below $300 million post-crash. Hive’s CEO is seeking a $650 million valuation for its Series B, raising the round on its own platform and using Forge’s exit valuation as a comparable.
Market Consolidation Speculation
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(01:07:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Further M&A activity is anticipated among major banks in the secondary market space.
  • Summary: The recent acquisitions suggest that large banks are trying to catch up in the market space, especially after Goldman Sachs made a significant move. More acquisitions are expected before the end of the year or certainly in 2026. The remaining independent players are likely targets for acquisition.
Ramp Valuation Corner Introduction
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(01:08:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Ramp’s new $32B valuation places it among the top five global fintech companies.
  • Summary: Ramp announced a $32 billion valuation, likely securing the fourth or fifth spot behind companies like Ant, Stripe, and Revolut. Ramp operates as a spend management platform integrating various finance functions, notably without relying on AI hype. Having raised only $2 billion to date, the company has a manageable preference stack to overcome.
Ramp Growth Metrics
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(01:09:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Ramp doubled its valuation in five months due to accelerating revenue growth exceeding 100% YoY.
  • Summary: Ramp’s valuation doubled from $16 billion in July to $32 billion recently, driven by strong performance metrics. The company is growing revenue at 133% year-over-year and is already past $1 billion in ARR as of August. Ramp has maintained a consistent history of up-rounds, only experiencing one sympathetic down-round in 2022.
Ramp vs. Brex Comparison
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(01:11:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Ramp and Brex are splitting the market focus, with Ramp emphasizing scale and efficiency while Brex targets high-growth VC-backed firms.
  • Summary: Ramp has greater scale ($1B+ revenue vs. Brex’s $700M) and faster growth (100%+ vs. 30-50%), though Brex has slightly higher gross margins (50% vs. 40%). Brex focuses on VC-backed companies, offering bank accounts and global spending features, whereas Ramp targets SMBs and larger enterprises with a focus on cost control and integration with accounting software.
Competitive Landscape Analysis
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(01:12:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The expense management space is crowded, but Ramp and Brex are positioned to dominate against pure competitors and broader HR platforms.
  • Summary: CFOs are constantly pitched expense management tools from various players, including payment companies like Bill moving into the space. Pure competitors like SAP Concur and Navan exist, but the growth rates suggest Ramp and Brex are pulling ahead of the rest. HR platforms like Rippling and Deel focus more on payroll and recruiting, making the core spend management category distinct for Ramp and Brex to capture.