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TP10: Blackbird VC + Canva 🎨 | OpenAI $1T IPO😱 | Tether $500B Val | EquityZen Acquisition

November 5, 2025

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  • OpenAI is restructuring its governance to move toward a potential $1 trillion IPO, involving a reduction in Microsoft's ownership stake from 49% to 27% and gaining approval from the California AG. 
  • Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta) are spending over $125 billion quarterly on AI infrastructure, a demand-driven phenomenon that is significantly contributing to US GDP growth, though power constraints are emerging as a key bottleneck. 
  • Blackbird VC's Managing Partner, Rick Baker, detailed the massive success of their early $250K seed investment in Canva, which is now valued at $40B, and discussed a 2019 GP-led secondary transaction that returned 3.5x to LPs while maintaining significant exposure. 
  • Blackbird Ventures manages concentration risk in their Canva holding by strategically selling down portions (from 15% to ~11% of peak ownership) to return capital to LPs, balancing potential upside against unmitigated risk. 
  • The extended time required for IPOs (12-15 years) is forcing VC funds like Blackbird to utilize secondary markets or fund extensions, as the traditional 10-year fund life is becoming problematic for long-held seed investments. 
  • Tether's potential $500B valuation is supported by its massive $13B+ annual profit (2x BlackRock's) derived from an aggressive reserve policy (including Bitcoin/corporate bonds), but this contrasts sharply with the safer, lower-yielding reserves held by competitor Circle, and future profitability may shrink due to anticipated regulatory compliance under the new 'Genius Act'. 

Segments

OpenAI Governance and IPO Path
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(00:01:26)
  • Key Takeaway: OpenAI is restructuring to a for-profit model to enable a potential $1 trillion IPO, reducing Microsoft’s ownership but securing their partnership.
  • Summary: Discussion on OpenAI cleaning up governance, leaking plans for a $1T IPO in 12-30 years, moving to a for-profit structure, and Microsoft’s reduced ownership stake (27%).
Big Tech AI Data Center Spending
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(00:00:34)
  • Key Takeaway: The four major hyperscalers are spending over $100 billion per quarter on AI infrastructure, a demand-driven phenomenon.
  • Summary: Review of Q3 earnings showing Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta spending nearly $125 billion quarterly on AI data centers, contributing significantly to U.S. GDP growth.
AI Spending Burn Rate Context
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(00:06:08)
  • Key Takeaway: OpenAI’s massive estimated annual expense rate ($44-45B) highlights the unprecedented capital required to sustain AI development.
  • Summary: Analysis of reports suggesting OpenAI’s expenses are near $12B annually, requiring $40B+ in new financing yearly, compared to Meta’s Reality Labs losses.
Hyperscalers Financing AI Expansion
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(00:11:49)
  • Key Takeaway: Meta and Oracle are raising massive corporate bond offerings ($30B and $38B respectively) to finance AI CapEx, leveraging low interest rates.
  • Summary: Discussion on Meta raising $30B in corporate bonds despite having cash, and Oracle raising $38B, indicating public markets support this debt-financed expansion.
Power Constraints on AI Growth
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(00:14:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Financial constraints are absent, but the physical constraint of power availability—requiring capacity equivalent to four Hoover Dams—is the major risk.
  • Summary: Concerns raised over whether enough power exists to support planned AI buildouts, such as OpenAI’s 30 gigawatts goal, and potential impacts on consumer power pricing.
Secondary Market Acquisitions by Banks
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(00:15:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Morgan Stanley acquiring EquityZen signals major banks are integrating secondary market access as a key third exit path for private companies.
  • Summary: News of Morgan Stanley acquiring EquityZen and Goldman Sachs acquiring Industry Ventures, suggesting expansion for the secondary market as IPOs/M&A fluctuate.
Nivon IPO Performance Review
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(00:18:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Nivon’s 20% drop on IPO day shows the market is distinguishing between high-quality, profitable companies and others, even if growth is strong.
  • Summary: Review of Nivon’s IPO pricing and subsequent drop, valuing the company at 9x trailing revenues, which is above the SaaS median but below top-tier flyers.
Mercor’s Massive Valuation Step-Up
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(00:21:11)
  • Key Takeaway: AI talent access company Mercor raised a Series C at a $10B valuation, a 5x increase from earlier this year.
  • Summary: Details on Mercor’s $350M Series C led by Felicis, highlighting the extreme valuation growth for companies supporting foundational AI model talent.
Tether’s Extreme Profitability and Valuation
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(00:25:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Tether generated $15B in profit year-to-date (Q3), making it potentially twice as profitable as BlackRock, and is rumored to seek a $500B valuation.
  • Summary: Discussion on Tether’s massive profits from stablecoin issuance and the rumor of a $500 billion private valuation, placing it among elite private companies.
Blackbird VC Founding Story
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(00:28:14)
  • Key Takeaway: Blackbird VC was founded in 2012/2013 after overcoming skepticism about venture capital viability in Australia.
  • Summary: Rick Baker discusses his background, his early secondary market success with Sequoia, and how he and Nikki Shivac started Blackbird with 97 individual LPs.
Blackbird’s Canva Investment Thesis
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(00:38:38)
  • Key Takeaway: Blackbird was drawn to Canva’s product-led, organic growth flywheel, mirroring the success model of Atlassian.
  • Summary: Baker recounts meeting Mel and Cliff in Perth, the initial challenges of Canva’s first round, and Blackbird’s decision to invest heavily in every subsequent round.
Australian Superannuation Capital Pool
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(00:51:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Mandated 12% salary contributions create a $4 trillion Aussie superannuation pool, which has become a sophisticated, long-term source of VC capital.
  • Summary: Explanation of the Australian superannuation system and how, after initial skepticism, these funds are now major, sophisticated investors in local and global venture.
Blackbird’s First Fund Secondary Sale
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(00:57:24)
  • Key Takeaway: Blackbird sold a slice of its first fund in 2019 at 13x TVPI, realizing 3.5x cash back for LPs while retaining significant upside.
  • Summary: Details on the GP-led secondary transaction using Lazard, where Stepstone and an Aussie Superfund bought a portion of the portfolio, providing early liquidity.
Canva Secondary Sale Challenges
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(01:02:46)
  • Key Takeaway: A planned Canva secondary sale was pulled due to market tumbling in early 2022, preventing them from achieving desired pricing.
  • Summary: The speaker discusses a secondary sale process for their Canva holdings that was halted because markets began to tumble at the beginning of 2022, leading them to pull the sale as they couldn’t secure the desired pricing.
Managing Canva Ownership Stake
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(01:03:06)
  • Key Takeaway: The firm has reduced its Canva ownership from 15% to about 11% through tender offers and bilateral secondaries to start returning capital to LPs.
  • Summary: Since the failed secondary, they have participated in Canva’s tender offer and sold down about 4% of their peak 15% ownership to begin returning capital to their 2012/2013 vintage funds, aiming for 1x DPI.
LP Views on Exiting Early
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(01:04:15)
  • Key Takeaway: LPs have widely dispersed views on selling Canva, ranging from wanting to sell everything to wanting to hold indefinitely, balancing return maximization against concentration risk.
  • Summary: The discussion covers the tension between LPs who want to de-risk by selling highly appreciated assets like Canva and the manager’s reluctance to sell, emphasizing the need to manage concentration risk when a single position becomes a very large percentage of the fund.
Fund Life vs. IPO Timelines
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(01:06:00)
  • Key Takeaway: The increasing time for IPOs (12-15 years) is problematic for standard 10+2 VC fund structures, necessitating fund extensions.
  • Summary: The speaker notes that with IPOs taking 12-15 years, the standard 10-year life of many VC funds is becoming problematic, forcing extensions for funds like their 2013 and 2015 vintages.
Secondary Market as Liquidity Driver
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(01:08:15)
  • Key Takeaway: The need for liquidity before fund life ends is a major driver for the rising secondary market, often executed alongside primary funding rounds.
  • Summary: The extended timeframes are fueling the secondary market, where they sell portions of holdings to other VC/PE firms, often timing these sales to coincide with primary rounds to secure the best pricing.
LP Requests for Liquidity
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(01:10:01)
  • Key Takeaway: LPs sometimes request liquidity, particularly regarding concentrated positions like Canva, but the firm tries to resist being unduly influenced by individual LP demands.
  • Summary: They receive requests from LPs, such as a super fund overloaded with Canva exposure, asking for liquidity. The firm generally tries to act in the best interest of the entire fund rather than catering to specific LP liquidity needs, directing them toward LP secondaries if necessary.
Australian Ecosystem Growth & AI
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(01:11:50)
  • Key Takeaway: The Australian ecosystem is thriving due to a ‘circle of life’ effect where alumni from successful companies like Canva are starting new ventures, and local players are stepping up in the AI wave.
  • Summary: Looking ahead, the speaker is positive about Australia’s growth, noting the emergence of experienced founders. Regarding AI, they are excited about specialist models leveraging unique local data sets, such as Harrison AI in medical diagnostics.
Canva Valuation vs. Figma IPO
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(01:14:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The speaker diplomatically suggests the Figma IPO outcome will indicate how well Canva will be received by public markets.
  • Summary: When asked about Canva’s valuation relative to Figma’s IPO, the speaker avoids direct comment but implies that the market reception of Figma provides a strong signal for Canva’s potential public debut.
Tether Valuation and Profitability
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(01:16:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Tether is reportedly seeking a $500B valuation based on massive profitability ($13B+ profit in 2024), far exceeding public asset managers like BlackRock.
  • Summary: The Valuation Corner segment begins by introducing Tether, the dominant stablecoin issuer, and the rumor of a $500B valuation round, contrasting it with their last $12B valuation in late 2022.
Tether vs. Circle Comparison
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(01:18:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Tether appears significantly more valuable based on PE ratio (36x vs. 240x for Circle) due to aggressive reserve investment, but Circle wins on transparency and regulatory compliance.
  • Summary: A side-by-side comparison shows Tether’s high profitability stems from investing reserves in riskier assets (corporate bonds, Bitcoin), yielding 11% ROA, whereas Circle is conservative (cash/treasuries), yielding 4% ROA, but Circle offers superior transparency and US regulation.
Regulatory Clarity for Stablecoins
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(01:28:28)
  • Key Takeaway: The hypothetical ‘Genius Act’ (passed July ‘25) classifies stablecoins as currency regulated by Treasury, requiring 1:1 USD peg, liquid reserves, monthly disclosures, and audits.
  • Summary: The discussion shifts to regulation, noting that the new framework would force Tether to adopt rules similar to Circle’s conservative approach, likely shrinking their high profits derived from aggressive reserve management.
Future Competition and Profit Compression
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(01:30:21)
  • Key Takeaway: Future competition and clearer regulation will likely force Tether and Circle to share float returns with customers, compressing their high margins (ROA).
  • Summary: The hosts speculate that increased competition from players like Coinbase, PayPal, and Square, combined with regulatory clarity, will lead to price competition, forcing stablecoin issuers to pay yields on reserves and shrink their ROA.