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Iran Tanks IPOs | 2026 VC Outlook with PitchBook & CB Insights | ByteDance @ $550B | Ep26

March 10, 2026

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  • The market is signaling that the impact of the Iran conflict on oil prices is expected to be a three to six-month event, as indicated by the backwardation in Brent crude futures. 
  • Employee tender offers are becoming a normalized and essential retention tool for private companies, especially in competitive sectors like AI, allowing employees earlier liquidity than traditional vesting schedules provide. 
  • Venture secondary markets hit record volumes in 2025 ($106B for VC secondaries, $226B overall), solidifying secondaries as a crucial, dependable liquidity path alongside IPOs and M&A, though trading remains heavily concentrated in top names. 
  • A sum-of-parts valuation for ByteDance, combining Douyin (at 4x sales), TikTok International (at 6x sales), and the 20% stake in TikTok US, lands near the current $550 billion valuation. 
  • The valuation of Douyin is benchmarked between Meta's 8x sales (generous) and Snap's sub-scale valuation, settling on 4x revenues, while TikTok International is assigned a 6x revenue multiple due to its highly engaged, young user base. 
  • Despite owning only 20% of the restructured TikTok US entity, ByteDance retains a crucial, non-zero asset: a license to collect 20% of the US entity's revenue (estimated at $4B-$5B annually) as long as it uses ByteDance's proprietary algorithm. 

Segments

LP Appetite Prediction
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: LP appetite will not fully return in the current year due to market uncertainty.
  • Summary: The prediction is that Limited Partner appetite will not fully recover this year. This is attributed to ongoing market uncertainty and geopolitical events. This lack of recovery favors mega funds, potentially widening the gap between them and emerging managers.
Augment Power 20 Review
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(00:01:04)
  • Key Takeaway: The top tier of private companies remains highly concentrated among a few names.
  • Summary: The Augment Power20 list was reviewed, noting that the top six or seven companies include SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. XAI is expected to merge with SpaceX, and companies like Ramp could enter the top tier. ByteDance and Canva are also considered contenders for the top seven spots.
Anduril Valuation Jump
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(00:01:50)
  • Key Takeaway: Anduril achieved a $60 billion valuation on $4 billion in revenue.
  • Summary: Anduril, a defense contractor, closed a funding round at a $60 billion valuation, up from $14 billion when the hosts invested. The company has doubled its revenue to $4 billion but is currently losing about $1 billion. Racin and Thrive Capital led the new funding round.
CEO Personality and Controversy
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(00:02:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Charismatic CEOs like Palmer Luckey can be effective fundraisers despite controversy.
  • Summary: Palmer Luckey fits the profile of a charismatic, larger-than-life CEO similar to Sam Altman and Elon Musk, which aids fundraising. Luckey’s controversial nature is noted, but his partnership with co-CEO Brian Schemp is seen as a strong complement.
Anthropic Pentagon Conflict
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(00:04:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic was designated a supply chain risk by the Pentagon for refusing certain defense contracts.
  • Summary: Dario Amodei leaked a memo regarding refusal to support AI use for autonomous weapons or mass surveillance on U.S. citizens, leading to the Pentagon flagging Anthropic as a supply chain risk. This designation is unusual for a U.S. company and was preceded by an attempt to invoke the Defense Production Act.
Iran Conflict Market Impact
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(00:06:30)
  • Key Takeaway: Geopolitical conflict caused high intraday NASDAQ volatility despite a modest weekly drop.
  • Summary: The NASDAQ experienced significant daily gyrations, with intraday volatility reaching 700 points on one day, even though the overall weekly drop was only about 2%. Oil prices surged by 30% to nearly $90 a barrel for Brent crude as of the recording.
Oil Futures Backwardation Signal
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(00:08:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Oil futures backwardation suggests the market expects high oil prices for three months, then a drop.
  • Summary: Backwardation, where near-term futures contracts are priced higher than longer-dated ones, is rare. The current curve suggests the market anticipates oil prices above $80 for the next few months before falling back toward the $70 range by year-end.
IPO Market Slowdown
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(00:10:09)
  • Key Takeaway: High volatility is currently stalling the IPO market, leading to delays and weak debuts.
  • Summary: The volatility makes pricing IPOs difficult, leading to the indefinite delay of major offerings like PayPay, Clear Street, and Liftoff. Mini Med, a Medtronic unit, priced poorly, dropping 8% on its debut and valuing at only 2x revenue.
Cerebras IPO Uncertainty
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(00:11:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Cerebras faces significant hurdles to its IPO due to extreme revenue concentration.
  • Summary: Cerebras is attempting an IPO after settling prior issues, having recently raised at a $23 billion valuation. However, 87% of its revenue comes from a single Abu Dhabi-based company (G42), which poses a major risk in the current environment.
Robinhood RVI Fund Launch
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(00:13:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Robinhood’s public VC fund, RVI, underwhelmed by raising less than its target.
  • Summary: The Robinhood RVI fund, a public vehicle for non-accredited investors to access private companies, raised only about $658 million against a $1 billion target. The fund’s selection of target companies, excluding major names like SpaceX or OpenAI, may have contributed to the underwhelming launch.
Secondary Market Records
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(00:16:47)
  • Key Takeaway: Venture secondary markets reached a record $106 billion in 2025.
  • Summary: Pitchbook reported that the VC secondary market exceeded $100 billion in 2025, specifically hitting $106 billion. The broader secondary market, including private equity, reached a record $226 billion. This growth reinforces secondaries as a primary liquidity tool.
Secondary Strategy Focus
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(00:18:33)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts prioritize investing in ‘secret stallions’ outside the top 30-40 companies for better secondary returns.
  • Summary: The hosts view secondaries as a way to gain faster liquidity and potentially better returns by skipping early volatility. They diverge from the market by focusing on companies outside the ‘private Mag 7’ cohort, targeting those valued between half a billion and $5 billion for better value.
Employee Tender Offer Mechanics
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(00:20:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Tender offers are controlled secondary sales arranged by the company for employees or early investors.
  • Summary: A tender offer involves the company bringing in new investors to buy shares from existing employees or shareholders who meet specific criteria (e.g., tenure, vested shares). This process is highly controlled by the company and is increasingly used as a retention tool, even by younger firms like Decagon.
Kraken Fed Access Milestone
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(00:25:09)
  • Key Takeaway: Kraken gained access to the Fed’s FedWire system, a major milestone for crypto integration.
  • Summary: Kraken is the first digital asset company to win access to the Fed’s core payment system, FedWire. This allows for more efficient movement of fiat currency in and out of crypto systems, signaling increased government support compared to the previous administration.
2025 VC Recap Insights
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(00:28:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Secondary market trading volume is extremely top-heavy, with the top five names accounting for over half of Q4 2025 volume.
  • Summary: The secondary market is highly concentrated, with the top five names driving over 50% of trading volume in Q4 2025. If major IPOs like OpenAI or Anthropic occur, a temporary dip in secondary volume is expected as attention shifts to the next cohort of popular companies.
AI vs. Non-AI Funding Pace
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(00:39:29)
  • Key Takeaway: AI companies are raising multiple rounds within 12 months with significantly higher valuation step-ups than non-AI peers.
  • Summary: AI companies are compressing their funding timelines, with about a quarter raising multiple rounds within a year. AI companies see valuation step-ups 20-30% higher than non-AI companies across all stages, reflecting greater commercial maturity upon funding.
Secondary Market Liquidity for EMs
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(00:41:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Secondaries are increasingly providing material DPI for early-stage VCs and emerging managers.
  • Summary: Secondaries are becoming a dependable liquidity source, allowing early-stage managers to realize returns before the typical 10-year fund life. Participation in tender offers is growing across younger cohorts, enabling reinvestment of capital mid-fund.
AI Labor Displacement Prediction
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(00:57:53)
  • Key Takeaway: Significant labor displacement across tech companies due to AI adoption is predicted for the coming year.
  • Summary: Continued labor displacement from AI adoption is expected, with tech companies likely making 20-30% workforce cuts this year. Sectors like customer success are anticipated to see high displacement first, driven by the rapid adoption of AI agents.
ByteDance Valuation Analysis
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(01:00:56)
  • Key Takeaway: ByteDance’s $550B valuation requires a 4x revenue multiple on its dominant Douyin business.
  • Summary: ByteDance is tendering shares at $550B, a 60% step-up from last fall’s $330B price, based on $186B revenue and $50B net income in 2025. Valuing the core China property, Douyin (two-thirds of revenue), at 4x sales is used as a baseline assumption for this new valuation.
Valuing Douyin Revenue Multiple
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(01:03:48)
  • Key Takeaway: A 4x revenue multiple is selected for Douyin, positioned between Meta’s 8x and Snap’s pessimistic valuation, acknowledging a China discount.
  • Summary: The valuation of Douyin’s 700 million users is assessed using social media comparables, settling on four times revenues. Meta’s 8x sales multiple is deemed too generous, while Snap’s low multiple is too pessimistic. The chosen 4x multiple accounts for Douyin being as fast-growing and profitable as Meta but subject to a China discount.
TikTok International User Base
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(01:05:09)
  • Key Takeaway: TikTok outside the US has 700 million users, with only 15% in North America, showing strong engagement metrics.
  • Summary: TikTok’s non-US business is global, with significant user bases across Asia Pacific (Indonesia, Pakistan, Japan) and Europe (UK, Germany, France). The platform boasts 70 minutes of average daily usage, double that of Facebook or Instagram, appealing strongly to advertisers targeting the under-34 demographic.
TikTok International Revenue Multiple
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(01:06:29)
  • Key Takeaway: A 6x revenue multiple is assigned to TikTok International, reflecting its fast growth and high user engagement, falling between Meta and Snapchat comps.
  • Summary: Given TikTok’s engaged user base and growth, a 6x revenue multiple is chosen as appropriate, being more optimistic than 2x but less than Meta’s 8x, as its profitability has not yet reached Meta’s level. This results in an implied valuation of $138 billion based on last year’s revenues, or 20-25 times profits.
Restructured TikTok US Ownership
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(01:07:47)
  • Key Takeaway: ByteDance’s ownership in the restructured TikTok US business is reduced to 20%, with significant stakes held by Silverlake, MGX, and Oracle.
  • Summary: Following restructuring, ByteDance only retains 20% of the $80 billion valued TikTok US business, with Silverlake, MGX, and Oracle each owning 15%. This requires adjusting the sum-of-parts calculation to credit ByteDance only for its minority stake in the US operations.
Final ByteDance Sum of Parts
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(01:08:50)
  • Key Takeaway: The final sum-of-parts valuation ($480B Douyin + $60B TikTok Int’l + $16B TikTok US stake) aligns closely with ByteDance’s current $550 billion valuation.
  • Summary: The combined valuation components—$480 billion for Douyin, $60 billion for TikTok International, and $16 billion for the TikTok US stake—total $556 billion, suggesting the current market price is near the pin. Additional assets like the Tutiao news service and CapCut are noted but not fully quantified in this primary calculation.
Algorithm Revenue Stream Confirmation
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(01:09:48)
  • Key Takeaway: ByteDance receives an annual revenue stream of $4B-$5B from TikTok US by licensing its algorithm, an asset not fully counted in the primary valuation.
  • Summary: As a condition of the license agreement, ByteDance collects 20% of TikTok US revenue, equating to approximately $4 billion to $5 billion annually, provided the US entity uses ByteDance’s algorithm. This growing annual payment stream represents a significant, uncounted asset supporting the overall valuation.
Valuation Multiple Sanity Check
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(01:10:31)
  • Key Takeaway: ByteDance’s valuation multiple appears favorable compared to China peers like Tencent and faster-growing but less profitable companies like Pinterest.
  • Summary: A comparison chart shows slow-growing Chinese firms like Alibaba trading at 2x sales, while Pinterest trades around 3-4x sales while growing 15-17%. ByteDance is priced slightly above Pinterest, which is justified by its higher profitability, high teens/low 20s growth, and AI advantage, suggesting its current valuation is fair.