[trading places]

Nvidia $4.4T vs Cerebras $23B Val | Why Private Prices Are Wrong with Nick Fusco of PM Insights | Episode 27

March 18, 2026

Anthropic's reported ARR growth ($5B added in February) suggests it is rapidly catching up to or potentially surpassing OpenAI in momentum, despite OpenAI's larger valuation.

Iran Tanks IPOs | 2026 VC Outlook with PitchBook & CB Insights | ByteDance @ $550B | Ep26

March 10, 2026

The market is signaling that the impact of the Iran conflict on oil prices is expected to be a three to six-month event, as indicated by the backwardation in Brent crude futures.

OpenAI $110B Raise, Stripe at $159B, and the Donor Money Tax Hack VCs Use | Trading Places Podcast E25

March 4, 2026

OpenAI secured a historic $110 billion funding round, significantly broadening its strategic partnership base beyond Microsoft with major investments from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank.

OpenAI $830B vs Anthropic $380B: The Future of Private Market Pricing with Tyson Hendricksen | E24

February 24, 2026

OpenAI is reportedly close to finalizing a massive $100 billion funding round at an $830 billion valuation, dwarfing previous private rounds, while competitor Anthropic is valued at $380 billion.

Elon Musk $1.25T SpaceX + xAI merger, How to Get DPI in 2026 w/ David Zhou | Ep23

February 11, 2026

The reported $1.25 trillion SpaceX + xAI merger combines the two largest TAMs (Space and AI) but draws parallels to the Time Warner/AOL merger, raising concerns about AI multiples absorbing existing asset value.

xAI SpaceX merger, LatAm 2026 IPOs, Anurag Chandra wisdom from managing pension funds & FOs | Ep22

February 4, 2026

Rumors suggest Elon Musk is exploring a merger of SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI into "Elon Inc" as a potential path to an IPO, despite potential shareholder dilution concerns.

OpenAI Path To Profitability, Anduril Valuation, & India Unicorns | Qapita Ravi Ravulaparthi | Ep21

January 28, 2026

Public market optimism is currently underpinned by strong forecasted S&P 500 EPS growth (10-12% for 2026), with tech expected to lead at 25% growth, partially attributed to AI exuberance.

Top 20 Private Companies in 2026, The Billionaire Tax, Mistral AI Valuation | Augment + Sacra | Ep20

January 21, 2026

A proposed California billionaire wealth tax faces significant legal challenges regarding its structure (one-time nature, taxing control vs. economic value) and is already causing high-net-worth individuals like Larry Page and Sergey Brin to consider leaving the state.

Why LatAm Beats Other Emerging Markets, 2026 IPOs, & Discord Valuation | Guest Nathan Lustig | Ep19

January 14, 2026

Latin America has historically led other emerging markets in the quantity of exits above $1 billion, driven by strong local ecosystems in countries like Brazil and Mexico.

TP18: James Riney of Coral Capital 🇯🇵 | Japan's VC Explosion 🚀 | 2026 IPO Predictions 📈

January 7, 2026

The secondary market in Japan is becoming normalized as companies stay private longer, though capital supply still lags potential demand.

TP17: Caplight's Javier Avalos 📊 | Secondary Boom 🔥| Why Banks Need Private Mkts 🏦 | $230B xAI 🚀

December 23, 2025

Financial institutions lagging in providing private market access solutions to clients risk falling behind competitors, as evidenced by recent acquisitions like Schwab/Forge and Morgan Stanley/EquityZen.

TP16: Bridgespan VC 💰| Employee Stock Option Financing 🫴| Oracle Stock 📉 | Waymo Valuation 🏎️

December 16, 2025

Oracle's high debt-to-equity ratio (over 500%) makes its equity highly leveraged to downside risk, evidenced by credit default swaps hitting their highest level since 2008.

TP15: Ben Black Akkadian Ventures🏆 | Secondaries Secrets 💎 | RAISE Conf 🎯 | Vercel $9B 🚀

December 10, 2025

Managing Limited Partners (LPs) through consistent communication like quarterly updates and personal calls is highlighted as a crucial, often underestimated, aspect of a fund manager's job, more important than just deal selection.

TP14: Michael Burry vs Big Tech 🎯 | Grayscale IPO Disaster? 💥 | Thanksgiving Special 🦃

December 2, 2025

Michael Burry's claims against Big Tech accounting, specifically extending depreciation schedules, are deemed a reasonable accounting argument but an overstatement when compared to historical fraud like WorldCom, given the current financial strength of hyperscalers.

TP13: Emily Zheng of Pitchbook 📊 | VC Secondaries Hit $95B 🔥 | Ramp $32B 💳

November 25, 2025

The venture secondary market is now estimated at $95 billion annually, positioning it as the third major exit option alongside IPOs ($105B) and M&A ($107B).

TP12: Top Tier's Sean Engel 🎯 | AI Bubble? 🎈 | Data Centers 🏗️ | Kraken 💰

November 19, 2025

The current IPO market favors companies with an "AI or crypto veneer," leaving traditional SaaS and FinTech IPOs lagging despite solid fundamentals.

TP10: Blackbird VC + Canva 🎨 | OpenAI $1T IPO😱 | Tether $500B Val | EquityZen Acquisition

November 5, 2025

OpenAI is restructuring its governance to move toward a potential $1 trillion IPO, involving a reduction in Microsoft's ownership stake from 49% to 27% and gaining approval from the California AG.

TP7: Turner Novak 🍌🧢 | Prediction Market 📈 | Gold Rush💰 | OpenAI's $500B Valuation 😱

October 14, 2025

The current market is seeing a trend where IPOs occur for companies generating significant revenue (over $400M-$500M), exemplified by Navan pricing its IPO at a $6.4 billion valuation.

TP EP6: Peter Walker of Carta 📊 | OpenAI Tender 🧾| Revolut $75B Valuation 💳 | Is 3X 3X 2X 2X 💀?

October 7, 2025

The traditional SaaS growth benchmark of "triple, triple, double, double" is being challenged by VCs demanding much higher initial growth rates (e.g., 15x then 6x) due to the AI hype cycle.

TP5: Isomer Capital 🔬 | SpaceX $400B Valuation 🚀 | Nvidia 🤝 OpenAI | Revolut: Buy Sell or Hold? 🤔

October 1, 2025

Mega-deals in AI infrastructure, such as the NVIDIA/OpenAI $100B and Oracle/$300B computing power contracts, are causing massive, immediate jumps in the vendors' market capitalization, suggesting investors are valuing future revenue lock-ins highly.

TP #4: Sydecar 🛵 | TikTok deal 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 | Netskope Stubhub Figure IPOs 📈 | xAI @ 200B💰| Stripe @ 91B 💳 | Omni Ventures ⚙️

September 23, 2025

The IPO window appears to be opening, with recent successful IPOs from companies like Netskope and Figure, though StubHub experienced a weaker debut, indicating a market that favors companies with solid growth and clear paths to profitability.