The Ancients

What if the Ides of March Failed?

March 19, 2026

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  • The assassination of Julius Caesar on the Ides of March was viewed by contemporaries like Cicero and Brutus as a pivotal, almost celebratory act of tyrannicide, commemorated on coinage. 
  • At the time of his planned departure for the East, Julius Caesar held the unprecedented title of *dictator perpetuo* (dictator without interruption), alongside numerous other honors that signaled a move toward Hellenistic kingship, alarming the Republican elite. 
  • Caesar's immediate plan before his assassination was a massive three-year military expedition against Parthia, a goal driven by a desire to emulate Alexander the Great and complete the conquest of the known world. 
  • Caesar's past legal stance against Cicero involved upholding the law that protected Roman citizens from execution without trial before the people, a principle that might have been tested if he had survived the assassination attempt. 
  • Exiling conspirators like Brutus and Cassius, while legally sound, could have created future issues by allowing them to potentially join forces with enemies like the Parthians, who already hosted other conspirators. 
  • Hypothetical episodes like this one in "The Ancients," "What if the Ides of March Failed?," are valuable because constructing plausible 'what if' arguments requires rigorous application of existing historical context and evidence. 

Segments

Ides of March Context and Aftermath
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(00:06:30)
  • Key Takeaway: Cicero’s letter and Brutus’s coinage demonstrate that the Ides of March event was immediately recognized and discussed by ancient figures as a defining moment of liberation.
  • Summary: Cicero, writing months later, referred to the assassination as a ‘banquet’ he wished he had attended, indicating his support for the conspirators. Brutus minted coins commemorating the date, featuring two daggers and a freedman’s cap to symbolize the act of tyrannicide. The Ides of March was the Roman term for March 15th, the date the Senate was summoned before Caesar’s departure.
Caesar’s Power Status
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(00:12:34)
  • Key Takeaway: Caesar’s title dictator perpetuo meant dictator without a fixed term, fundamentally challenging the constitutional structure of the Republic which relied on temporary emergency powers.
  • Summary: Caesar was co-consul with Mark Antony, but his continuous dictatorship was the primary constitutional concern for his peers. The traditional dictatorship was an emergency office limited to six months, making Caesar’s perpetual tenure deeply unsettling. He also held numerous other honors, including wearing the triumphal outfit publicly and having a priest appointed to oversee a cult to him.
Lupercalia and Kingly Ambitions
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(00:16:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The public offering of the diadem (a mark of Hellenistic kingship) to Caesar during the Lupercalia festival, despite his refusal, served as a calculated test of public acceptance for monarchy.
  • Summary: During the Lupercalia festival, Mark Antony placed a laurel crown containing a diadem on Caesar’s head, which Caesar refused and cast into the crowd. This event, coupled with his portrait appearing on Roman coinage (a privilege reserved for gods or long-dead ancestors), fueled fears that he was aiming for the title Rex (King).
Popularity and Political Support
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(00:19:39)
  • Key Takeaway: Caesar enjoyed immense popularity with soldiers and the common people due to legislation and bequests, but the elite minority who assassinated him feared his consolidation of power signaled the end of the Republic.
  • Summary: The conspirators represented only a small fraction of the 900-member Senate, which Caesar had expanded with his own supporters. Caesar ensured soldier loyalty through promises of retirement colonies and left his estates to the people of Rome in his will. Graffiti appeared on statues referencing the first Brutus who expelled kings, suggesting public concern over Caesar becoming monarch.
Parthian Campaign Logistics
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(00:22:47)
  • Key Takeaway: Caesar was scheduled to depart for the East on March 18th to conquer Parthia, a three-year campaign he intended to manage by pre-appointing magistrates for the next three years.
  • Summary: The Parthian campaign was Caesar’s goal to emulate Alexander the Great and avenge Rome’s previous defeat under Crassus. Caesar had already sent legions to Macedonia and planned the city’s administration in his absence by selecting magistrates, including Brutus and Cassius. The conspirators recognized the Ides of March as their final opportunity before Caesar left Rome for three years.
Caesar’s Health Concerns
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(00:40:43)
  • Key Takeaway: In his later life, Caesar suffered from sudden fainting fits and epileptic seizures, leading him to express a preference for a quick death over a long, degenerative illness.
  • Summary: Suetonius records that Caesar experienced ill health, including public epileptic fits, near the end of his life. He reportedly read Xenophon and stated he preferred a sudden end over a drawn-out illness, which may have motivated his desire for a glorious end on campaign. This contemplation of mortality suggests he was aware of his limited time.
Caesar’s Domestic Vision
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(00:43:48)
  • Key Takeaway: Caesar’s practical legislation focused on sound administration, including grain supply reform and infrastructure improvements, suggesting a focus on stability rather than immediate, overt kingship.
  • Summary: Caesar’s pre-departure legislation included appointing officials to oversee the grain supply and planning port improvements, indicating sound administrative goals. His relationship with Cleopatra and their son, Caesarean, presented a potential link to the East, contrasting with Augustus’s later decision to conquer Egypt outright. Caesar never publicly claimed Caesarean in Rome, though he allowed the boy to bear his name.
Octavian’s Future Trajectory
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(00:58:43)
  • Key Takeaway: If Caesar had lived, Octavian’s career would likely have followed a conventional elite path, but the existence of Caesarean as a rival heir would have created a succession crisis upon Caesar’s eventual death.
  • Summary: Octavian was studying in Apollonia when Caesar died, preparing for a traditional political career, and was named Caesar’s primary legal heir in the will. The presence of Caesarean, potentially favored by Caesar, alongside Octavian, would have led to conflict over who inherited Caesar’s power base. The philosopher Orisius warned Octavian that ‘Too many Caesars is not a good thing.’
Failed Assassination Scenario
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(01:02:21)
  • Key Takeaway: If the Ides of March plot had failed and the conspirators were arrested, Caesar might have followed his precedent of clementia (clemency) by subjecting them to trial rather than immediate execution.
  • Summary: Caesar was known for showing clemency to his civil war opponents, exemplified by Cato the Younger choosing suicide over accepting it. Caesar previously argued against executing the Catilinarian conspirators without a trial before the people, citing laws protecting Roman citizens. Exile, the traditional punishment for public violence, might have been the outcome for Brutus and Cassius if they had been caught.
Cicero, Catiline, and Caesar’s Law
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(01:04:11)
  • Key Takeaway: Caesar opposed Cicero’s execution of Catiline’s associates because Roman law required trial before the people for executing citizens.
  • Summary: During Cicero’s consulship, elite Senate members captured during the Catiline conspiracy were not put on trial but were slated for execution by Cicero’s faction. Caesar argued against this, citing existing laws that protected Roman citizens from injury or execution without a trial before the people. This highlights a fundamental legal conflict between Caesar’s adherence to citizen rights and Cicero’s expediency.
Consequences of Exile
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(01:05:11)
  • Key Takeaway: Exiling conspirators might have allowed them to join forces with enemies like the Parthians, potentially creating a powerful opposition group.
  • Summary: If conspirators had been exiled instead of executed, they might have joined Labienus in Parthia, forming a significant group of enemies under the Parthian king’s court. Although exiled conspirators wouldn’t have had the armies Brutus and Cassius later raised as praetors, exile might have prolonged issues by not completely eliminating the threat.
Reflecting on Hypothetical Scenarios
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(01:05:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Hypothetical explorations of history, like those in “The Ancients” episode “What if the Ides of March Failed?,” require constructing arguments based on available evidence.
  • Summary: The discussion concludes by noting that hypothetical scenarios allow for exploring infinite possibilities surrounding crux moments like the crossing of the Rubicon or Caesar’s assassination. Constructing a plausible ‘what if’ narrative necessitates thinking within the historical context and using evidence to support the proposed theory. This process is described as a fun way to explore the past and work the brain.
Closing Remarks and Promotion
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(01:07:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The episode marks the first time “The Ancients” has featured a dedicated hypothetical scenario, encouraging listener feedback.
  • Summary: The host thanks Dr. Hannah Cornwell for discussing the possibilities had Julius Caesar survived the Ides of March, 44 BC. Listeners are encouraged to follow “The Ancients” on podcast platforms and subscribe to History Hit for documentaries.