The Indicator from Planet Money

Jobs numbers, immigrants in healthcare, and ... Jesus Christ?

February 13, 2026

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  • The January jobs report showed a surprisingly strong 130,000 jobs added and a slight dip in the unemployment rate, potentially bucking a trend of lackluster hiring from the previous year. 
  • A working paper suggests that a 25% increase in immigration could save approximately 5,000 elderly lives annually by filling critical healthcare roles, with potential spillover benefits to U.S.-born healthcare workers. 
  • Betting markets like Polymarket are being used to wager on highly improbable events, such as the return of Jesus Christ (given a 4% probability), highlighting both the reach of these markets and their limitations for true black swan events. 

Segments

Introduction and Jobs Numbers
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(00:00:18)
  • Key Takeaway: January’s jobs report added 130,000 jobs, a number considered strong given declining working-age population growth.
  • Summary: The episode of The Indicator from Planet Money, “Jobs numbers, immigrants in healthcare, and … Jesus Christ?”, opened by welcoming Jerian Woods. The first indicator was the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, which estimated 130,000 jobs were added in January. This figure is considered strong, especially when factoring in the declining growth of the working-age population.
Job Market Revisions and Clouds
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(00:03:33)
  • Key Takeaway: The initial estimate for 2025 job creation was revised down by nearly 70%, indicating a much weaker prior year than initially reported.
  • Summary: The net number of jobs created in the previous year saw a massive revision, dropping by almost 70% from the initial estimate to 181,000. While January’s report suggests stabilization, ongoing concerns include reduced job postings and the threat of AI displacement. Uncertainty stemming from presidential policies on tariffs and immigration also casts a shadow over the job market.
Immigration and Elder Care
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(00:04:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Increased immigration could save 5,000 elderly lives annually by increasing the supply of healthcare workers, including U.S.-born doctors.
  • Summary: Healthcare hiring was particularly strong, accounting for over half of the jobs created in January. A working paper estimates that a 25% net increase in immigration could prevent 5,000 elderly deaths per year by boosting the healthcare workforce. This increase is projected to lead to more foreign-born workers and potentially more U.S.-born doctors, as employers can expand capacity when support staff is available.
Betting on Second Coming
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(00:07:14)
  • Key Takeaway: The Polymarket betting site assigned a 4% probability to the return of Jesus Christ this year, attracting millions in wagers.
  • Summary: The final indicator involved a bet on the probability of Jesus Christ returning to Earth this year, which stood at 4% on the Polymarket website. Some bettors may be engaging in strategic financial plays, betting on the derivative market that the probability itself will rise above 15%. While betting markets are often accurate for earthly matters, like predicting Federal Reserve interest rate moves, this highlights their use for extreme, low-probability events.