The Indicator from Planet Money

ICE is bad for business, heat is bad for coffee, and sci-fi is bad for markets

February 27, 2026

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  • Operation Metro Surge in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area resulted in an estimated $106 million in lost wages for workers, according to a Minnesota research institute. 
  • Coffee prices have increased by 33% over the past year to an average of $9.37 per pound, driven by long-term climate change impacts on production in key growing countries. 
  • A fictional macroeconomic memo posted on Substack by Citrini Research, detailing a 'global intelligence crisis' related to AI, caused a temporary 1% drop in the S&P 500 index. 

Segments

Intro and Hosts Welcome
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(00:00:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The Indicator from Planet Money hosts introduce the weekly segment focusing on economic numbers.
  • Summary: The hosts, Waylon Wong, Darian Woods, and Adrienne Ma, introduce the segment dedicated to discussing fascinating economic numbers from the news. Today’s topics include the impact of an immigration crackdown, rising coffee prices, and market reaction to an AI scenario. The episode is part of the ‘Indicators of the Week’ feature.
Minnesota Wage Loss Indicator
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(00:01:47)
  • Key Takeaway: Operation Metro Surge in Minneapolis-St. Paul caused an estimated $106 million in lost wages for workers.
  • Summary: The first indicator is $106 million, representing estimated lost wages due to Operation Metro Surge, according to North Star Policy Action research. The analysis used payroll software data, showing a nearly 3% drop in employees and a 2% drop in hours worked compared to typical activity. Researchers used a proxy wage of $17 per hour, meaning the actual lost wages could be higher if higher-paid workers were factored in.
Coffee Price Inflation Indicator
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(00:03:50)
  • Key Takeaway: Coffee prices are 33% higher year-over-year, driven primarily by climate change impacting global supply.
  • Summary: The second indicator is $9.37, the current price per pound of coffee, which is 33% higher than a year ago according to the BLS. This price surge is attributed to climate change making growing conditions hotter in major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, thus hurting supply. Demand for coffee is considered inelastic, meaning consumers continue to pay higher prices for their caffeine needs.
Sci-Fi AI Market Jolt
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(00:07:32)
  • Key Takeaway: A fictional Substack memo detailing an AI-driven ‘global intelligence crisis’ caused a temporary 1% drop in the S&P 500.
  • Summary: The final indicator is 1%, the approximate drop in the S&P 500 following the release of a fictional memo from Citrini Research. This memo described a future economic crisis stemming from AI replacing jobs, leading to falling house prices and a stock market crash. While other firms like Citadel critiqued the scenario’s soundness, the event showed investor jitters regarding rapid AI advancement.