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[00:00:00.960 --> 00:00:03.840] Hi, I'm Wendy Zuckerman, and you're listening to Sides Versus.
[00:00:05.760 --> 00:00:10.480] Today on the show, did we just cross the tipping point?
[00:00:10.480 --> 00:00:14.560] When it comes to climate change, how screwed are we?
[00:00:19.040 --> 00:00:26.640] And to add a little comedy to this drama, I've invited my mate, Australian comic Michael Hing to the show.
[00:00:26.640 --> 00:00:27.520] Hi, Michael.
[00:00:27.520 --> 00:00:28.320] Hello, Wendy.
[00:00:28.560 --> 00:00:32.000] When you say to bring some comedy to this, is this a hilarious topic?
[00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:36.320] Because I do feel like a lot of people listening to this will just broadly be bummed out.
[00:00:36.320 --> 00:00:39.760] Yes, no, I mean, there are a lot of reasons to be bummed out.
[00:00:39.760 --> 00:00:42.400] Let's just quickly go through a couple of them.
[00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:49.360] For one, it has been weirdly, some might say freakishly hot recently.
[00:00:49.360 --> 00:00:53.200] We've just been seeing like month after month of record-breaking heat.
[00:00:53.200 --> 00:00:59.680] And I know even for people like mildly following climate stuff, you'll be used to hearing record-breaking heat.
[00:00:59.680 --> 00:01:11.280] But it's just seriously, if you look at the graphs of this year and last year, the temperature of the globe, like the average global temperature, just jumped.
[00:01:11.280 --> 00:01:14.240] Yeah, I have seen some news stories about that.
[00:01:14.240 --> 00:01:22.640] Yeah, and temperatures were actually supposed to have dropped, but August numbers just came in and it's still really hot.
[00:01:23.920 --> 00:01:36.800] Yeah, there's no a decade ago, you would occasionally get these like hopeful climate stories where I'd be like, oh my goodness, they've invented these new plastic balls they can put on the top of water or something and that'll save us.
[00:01:36.800 --> 00:01:45.680] Or like, hey, have you heard about all these seaweed pills we can give cows and that'll and like those stories have really dried up in the last decade, haven't they?
[00:01:46.640 --> 00:01:50.480] All the stuff we were like, let's really put our hopes to this.
[00:01:51.080 --> 00:01:53.440] You know, where are they now?
[00:01:54.160 --> 00:01:58.160] And if you'll bear with me for just one quick doomsday story.
[00:01:58.160 --> 00:01:58.960] Of course.
[00:01:58.960 --> 00:01:59.760] So, Dr.
[00:01:59.880 --> 00:02:09.080] Ed Dodderidge at the University of Tasmania in Australia studies Australia's sea ice, which is this layer of frozen ocean that surrounds Antarctica.
[00:02:09.080 --> 00:02:09.400] Okay.
[00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:16.120] And he told me that for ages, the sea ice would melt in summer and then refreeze in winter in this very predictable pattern.
[00:02:16.120 --> 00:02:17.640] It was like a heartbeat.
[00:02:17.640 --> 00:02:21.240] Well, every year, boom, boom, boom.
[00:02:21.560 --> 00:02:30.520] And that heartbeat had been looking like a little less healthy, but then last year, everyone was just kind of gobsmacked.
[00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:34.360] As a community, we were just standing there, flabbergasted.
[00:02:35.640 --> 00:02:36.520] What happened?
[00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:38.040] What just happened?
[00:02:38.040 --> 00:02:40.120] The ice just didn't grow back.
[00:02:40.120 --> 00:02:41.320] It just didn't grow back.
[00:02:41.320 --> 00:02:41.720] Yeah.
[00:02:41.960 --> 00:02:44.200] How much ice is missing?
[00:02:45.480 --> 00:02:51.240] At the maximum, we were missing about 2.7 million square kilometers of sea ice.
[00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:56.920] So that's the size of Western Australia or Alaska and Texas combined.
[00:02:56.920 --> 00:02:57.480] Whoa.
[00:02:57.720 --> 00:03:01.320] Like huge, huge areas of ice.
[00:03:01.320 --> 00:03:02.680] And that's terrifying.
[00:03:03.000 --> 00:03:05.240] What do you feel when you see this?
[00:03:05.240 --> 00:03:10.840] As a human, I just want to sit in a corner and cry.
[00:03:10.840 --> 00:03:11.320] Yeah.
[00:03:12.200 --> 00:03:13.640] It's bad.
[00:03:13.640 --> 00:03:15.480] It's really bad.
[00:03:15.800 --> 00:03:26.680] I think, also, in terms of a metaphor, calling something the heartbeat of the planet and then it's stopping is like pretty powerful.
[00:03:26.680 --> 00:03:27.240] Yeah.
[00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:27.800] Yeah.
[00:03:27.800 --> 00:03:41.640] And I think now with all this crazy heat and these, you know, really bad things happening across the planet, there's all of this talk that we're sort of on the brink of a tipping point.
[00:03:42.280 --> 00:03:45.520] And that is actually what today's episode is all about.
[00:03:44.920 --> 00:03:49.760] There's just these headlines saying, you know, we're so close to the tipping point.
[00:03:50.320 --> 00:03:54.640] UN official this year said we've got two years to save the planet.
[00:03:54.640 --> 00:04:02.720] And so, Michael, when you read or you hear stuff like, you know, we're on the brink of a tipping point, what do you think it means?
[00:04:02.720 --> 00:04:19.760] I would guess it means that like we're at a point in the history of the planet where we will not be able as a species to reverse the effects of what we've done.
[00:04:19.760 --> 00:04:25.760] And it'll create like a, I don't know, like almost a whirlpool effect.
[00:04:25.760 --> 00:04:34.400] It'll get faster and faster and the deterioration of the environment will be beyond our control.
[00:04:34.400 --> 00:04:46.480] And even if we stopped all carbon emissions tomorrow, it's like the catastrophe has already underway and cannot be stopped.
[00:04:46.480 --> 00:04:48.160] Like a runaway train.
[00:04:49.440 --> 00:04:57.200] And when you like watch docos or news reports about tipping points, what you described is exactly what I feel.
[00:04:57.200 --> 00:04:59.040] So this is like an example.
[00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:00.880] We're near the tipping point.
[00:05:00.880 --> 00:05:02.240] Things are getting bad.
[00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:03.680] They're worse than we thought.
[00:05:03.680 --> 00:05:09.120] If tipping points are crossed, that could spiral beyond human control.
[00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:16.160] And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible.
[00:05:17.440 --> 00:05:23.680] And so today on this show, is the Earth truly on the brink of a tipping point?
[00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:29.760] And are things getting so bad that the climate is about to spiral out of our control?
[00:05:30.040 --> 00:05:30.440] Okay.
[00:05:30.760 --> 00:05:34.280] We are going to go on a grand adventure on this search.
[00:05:34.280 --> 00:05:35.720] We are going to sink a boat.
[00:05:35.720 --> 00:05:37.800] We're going to travel to the ends of the earth.
[00:05:37.800 --> 00:05:42.760] We're going to drill a massive hole in Greenland until we find out.
[00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:45.000] And actually, you know what?
[00:05:45.000 --> 00:05:57.720] I will, I just not just for like good radio craft, but also for my own personal sanity, I will remain committed to the idea that there is possibly light at the end of the tunnel.
[00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:02.440] It's all coming up.
[00:06:09.720 --> 00:06:12.600] This episode is brought to you by KPMG.
[00:06:12.600 --> 00:06:19.000] Science helps shape how KPMG views transformation, but it's their people who make it real.
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[00:06:41.640 --> 00:06:45.400] KPMG, make the difference.
[00:06:48.280 --> 00:06:50.600] This episode is brought to you by Diet Coke.
[00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:53.640] You know that moment when you just need to hit pause and refresh?
[00:06:53.640 --> 00:06:55.880] An ice-cold Diet Coke isn't just a break.
[00:06:55.880 --> 00:06:59.560] It's your chance to catch your breath and savor a moment that's all about you.
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[00:07:02.200 --> 00:07:05.240] Diet Coke, make time for you, time.
[00:07:12.280 --> 00:07:13.480] Welcome back.
[00:07:13.480 --> 00:07:19.520] Today on the show, comedian Michael Hing and I are working out if we just crossed a tipping point.
[00:07:19.840 --> 00:07:26.160] And so far, things have been, frankly, Wendy, I'm not putting this all on you, but it's been pretty grim so far.
[00:07:26.160 --> 00:07:28.560] All right, time for some fun.
[00:07:29.200 --> 00:07:35.440] So the term tipping point gets bandied about a lot every time something bad happens in terms of the climate.
[00:07:35.440 --> 00:07:38.160] It's like when you're the tipping point, when you're the tipping point.
[00:07:38.160 --> 00:07:54.160] I kind of might have led you there in our intro, but this kind of like grides the gears of a lot of scientists because when scientists talk about tipping points, they're actually talking about this incredibly cool and very particular thing.
[00:07:54.160 --> 00:07:58.480] And I talked about them with Felicity McCormack at Monash University in Australia.
[00:07:58.480 --> 00:08:02.080] I mean, personally, I find the science of tipping points just so fascinating.
[00:08:02.080 --> 00:08:03.600] Like devastating and fascinating.
[00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:07.520] It's this, wow, like this is how the earth works.
[00:08:07.520 --> 00:08:15.200] So to find out how the earth works and what a tipping point really is, Felicity was like, let's start with an analogy.
[00:08:15.520 --> 00:08:18.560] So backstory, 2020 lockdowns.
[00:08:18.560 --> 00:08:20.960] I'm zooming reading books to my niece.
[00:08:20.960 --> 00:08:24.000] And one of the books was Who Sank the Boat by Pamela Allen.
[00:08:24.320 --> 00:08:28.880] So as Felicity is reading this book, she realizes it's an excellent depiction of a tipping point.
[00:08:28.880 --> 00:08:32.240] So in this book, picture it, you've got a bunch of animals.
[00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:37.280] So there's a cow and a donkey, and a sheep and a pig and a tiny little mouse.
[00:08:37.280 --> 00:08:40.000] Can I ask which is your favorite of the characters in Who Sank the Boat?
[00:08:42.000 --> 00:08:43.440] The cow is quite delightful.
[00:08:43.760 --> 00:08:44.720] But the sheep.
[00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:46.560] The sheep is knitting.
[00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:53.360] The sheep is knitting.
[00:08:53.360 --> 00:08:59.280] So you've got all these animals: the cow, the donkey, the pig, the sheep with his little knitting needles.
[00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:03.000] And they all decide to jump into a small rowboat.
[00:08:59.840 --> 00:09:05.080] One by one, they jump in.
[00:09:06.280 --> 00:09:08.600] First the cow, then the donkey.
[00:09:08.600 --> 00:09:21.000] And as each animal jumps in, the level of the boat drops a little lower, drops and drops and drops until finally the tiny little mouse jumps in and the boat sinks.
[00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:23.560] So the mouse sank the boat.
[00:09:23.560 --> 00:09:27.160] Now in the book, the animals just kind of collapse into the water.
[00:09:27.160 --> 00:09:28.440] They're all very good swimmers.
[00:09:28.440 --> 00:09:29.480] All the animals survive.
[00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:32.120] No one was hurt filming this book.
[00:09:32.120 --> 00:09:33.320] Yeah, you'd hope so.
[00:09:33.960 --> 00:09:40.600] What a horrifying children's book it would be if it was about animals piling into a boat and then all of them drowned.
[00:09:41.560 --> 00:09:43.000] Drowned the animals.
[00:09:43.960 --> 00:09:46.920] But to put this all into the context of climate change.
[00:09:47.240 --> 00:09:53.640] You can imagine that the weight of the animals is the heat from all the greenhouse gas emissions that we're putting into the air.
[00:09:53.640 --> 00:09:57.240] And as it gets hotter and hotter, the animals are piling on.
[00:09:57.240 --> 00:10:00.920] The boat can somehow hold on, like it hasn't sunk yet.
[00:10:00.920 --> 00:10:04.680] But it is dropping a little bit further and a little bit further, but not sinking.
[00:10:04.680 --> 00:10:11.720] But then all of a sudden, mouse jumps in, tiniest bit of heat, and bam, the boat sinks.
[00:10:11.720 --> 00:10:14.200] And so that is the tipping point.
[00:10:14.520 --> 00:10:17.480] So you can think of it like a temperature threshold.
[00:10:17.480 --> 00:10:25.720] And once we pass it, what happens next leads to an irreversible and self-perpetuating change.
[00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:32.280] So that means that even if no other animals jump into the boat, you get like no more warming.
[00:10:32.920 --> 00:10:35.000] The boat is still underwater.
[00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:42.040] Like once it's inundated, goes down and down and down until it hits the bottom and it's sunk.
[00:10:42.040 --> 00:10:43.400] Can I ask a question?
[00:10:43.400 --> 00:10:43.800] Yes.
[00:10:43.800 --> 00:10:52.720] If all the animals fall out and they swim away, you know, the boat itself, that'll sort of pop back up, right?
[00:10:53.600 --> 00:11:05.280] The thing is that the carbon dioxide that we've currently been putting into the atmosphere, it's going to stay up there for generations and generations.
[00:11:05.280 --> 00:11:07.360] And so it's still going to be hot.
[00:11:07.360 --> 00:11:16.880] Methane, which is another greenhouse gas that we are currently putting into the atmosphere, that will stay in the atmosphere for about a decade before it goes away.
[00:11:16.880 --> 00:11:18.080] So that is good.
[00:11:18.080 --> 00:11:25.600] But most of the heat that we are putting into this planet, it's not going to go anywhere for a really long time.
[00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:34.800] One scientist told me that, you know, we've often got this view with climate change that someone's going to come and like magic our way out of this and make it all better.
[00:11:34.800 --> 00:11:39.360] But the idea with tipping points is that that boat is sinking.
[00:11:39.680 --> 00:11:42.800] Once you've crossed the threshold, there's really no coming back.
[00:11:42.800 --> 00:11:46.720] So here's how Ed put it: he's the guy that studies sea ice.
[00:11:46.720 --> 00:11:50.160] There is no way to go back from that decision.
[00:11:50.160 --> 00:11:52.160] That's what a tipping point means.
[00:11:52.160 --> 00:11:55.200] It's an irreversible change.
[00:11:55.200 --> 00:12:01.520] You change something in the climate system so fundamentally that we can't get it back.
[00:12:01.840 --> 00:12:06.160] So, Michael, in this analogy, do you want to have a guess?
[00:12:06.160 --> 00:12:07.680] What's the boat?
[00:12:09.280 --> 00:12:10.480] Ooh.
[00:12:11.760 --> 00:12:15.680] I would say the boat is meant to be the climate.
[00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:17.120] Planet Earth.
[00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:19.120] Yeah, like the environment we live in.
[00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:20.800] That's sort of what I had thought too.
[00:12:20.800 --> 00:12:21.680] And Dr.
[00:12:21.680 --> 00:12:29.760] Seva Wang, who's at the Breakthrough Institute in California, he says a lot of people seem to think that the climate of planet Earth is the boat.
[00:12:30.040 --> 00:12:37.480] And it comes up in the question that I and every climate scientist I know get all the time, which is, are we screwed?
[00:12:37.880 --> 00:12:39.240] Have we crossed the point of no return?
[00:12:39.240 --> 00:12:39.960] Yeah.
[00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:47.720] So I think that's how everyone imagines climate change to be, where it's a cliff and beyond a certain temperature threshold, then all hell breaks loose.
[00:12:47.720 --> 00:12:57.720] So, for example, you sometimes see these headlines that the temperature threshold, the tipping point of Earth, is like 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
[00:12:57.720 --> 00:13:00.680] Have you heard about this number 1.5 C?
[00:13:00.680 --> 00:13:01.800] Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:13:01.800 --> 00:13:07.000] The, you know, 1.5 degrees above like before the loom was motorized or whatever.
[00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:07.880] I don't know.
[00:13:08.920 --> 00:13:26.360] So the number came from the Paris Agreement, which is where all these countries came together and said, we've got a goal to limit the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which they say is 1850 to 1900.
[00:13:26.680 --> 00:13:29.800] It's a bit after the power loom was invented.
[00:13:29.800 --> 00:13:40.280] But anyway, so this number, 1.5 degrees Celsius, it's been great to have a goal like this, a clear target to talk about.
[00:13:40.280 --> 00:13:46.440] But now it's been reinterpreted as the tipping point of planet Earth.
[00:13:46.440 --> 00:13:47.000] Yep.
[00:13:47.000 --> 00:13:50.840] Some irreversible threshold for the whole climate.
[00:13:51.400 --> 00:14:04.840] Now, actually, according to some measurements, for 13 months in the past 14 months, we have actually been over 1.5 degrees Celsius.
[00:14:04.840 --> 00:14:12.520] Like we are like August, we are living in a 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
[00:14:13.400 --> 00:14:17.760] You know, like that is, that is such a, that is such a bummer on Brat Summer.
[00:14:17.760 --> 00:14:18.720] You know?
[00:14:19.360 --> 00:14:21.600] We're all having a great Brat summer, Wendy.
[00:14:22.640 --> 00:14:32.240] Okay, okay, but the thing is that this idea that the climate of planet Earth will fall off a cliff once we pass 1.5 C, that is not right.
[00:14:32.240 --> 00:14:33.760] So here's Save up.
[00:14:33.760 --> 00:14:37.360] People think that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a tipping point for the Earth.
[00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:44.160] And people, for example, have this mistaken idea that, you know, we're down to like maybe like six or seven or eight years left to save the climate.
[00:14:44.160 --> 00:14:46.400] But that is absolutely wrong.
[00:14:46.720 --> 00:14:47.200] Okay.
[00:14:47.520 --> 00:14:55.120] And the even better news is that planet Earth is actually not the boat that's sinking.
[00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:58.480] Yeah, so the planet doesn't have a, you know, a tipping point.
[00:14:58.800 --> 00:15:12.320] Yeah, so this like neat, tidy, and devastating story that we think that like the world will hit this specific temperature, this doomsday clock moment where bam, the planet slides into irreversible climate chaos.
[00:15:12.320 --> 00:15:14.000] Like that is not right.
[00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:15.200] So what's the boat?
[00:15:15.520 --> 00:15:16.320] What's the boat?
[00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:20.240] The boat is stuff on planet Earth.
[00:15:20.240 --> 00:15:21.200] Big stuff.
[00:15:21.520 --> 00:15:25.600] So like the Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet.
[00:15:25.920 --> 00:15:34.800] So Antarctica actually has two different ice sheets, east and the west, and each of them are like their own boats.
[00:15:34.800 --> 00:15:38.960] So we think that they tip at different temperatures.
[00:15:38.960 --> 00:15:39.600] Right.
[00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:44.080] Other tipping points are like warm water coral reefs.
[00:15:44.080 --> 00:15:46.080] They've got their own tipping point.
[00:15:46.080 --> 00:15:52.080] The AMOC, which is like this huge current system, plays a very important role in weather patterns.
[00:15:52.080 --> 00:15:53.920] That's another thing that can tip.
[00:15:53.920 --> 00:15:57.440] So there's like all these different tipping points on planet Earth.
[00:15:57.440 --> 00:16:08.600] So, wait, what you're telling me is that each individual system, you know, getting into a death spiral loop will not necessarily end life as we know it on planet Earth.
[00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:09.160] Yes.
[00:16:09.160 --> 00:16:16.280] But all I envision now is this flotilla of sinking boats.
[00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:17.080] Yeah.
[00:16:17.080 --> 00:16:21.880] And that any one of them could go wrong because of our mistakes we're making.
[00:16:21.880 --> 00:16:27.000] But so now the question becomes: when are they going to sink?
[00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:27.560] Right?
[00:16:27.560 --> 00:16:27.880] Right.
[00:16:27.880 --> 00:16:30.280] Like, when are they going to start to tip?
[00:16:30.280 --> 00:16:35.240] And I want to zoom in on the ice sheets.
[00:16:35.880 --> 00:16:48.600] And these are these like huge chunks of ice, and basically crossing their tipping points would ultimately mean that they slide into a state where they melt and melt and melt until possibly they've completely melted.
[00:16:48.600 --> 00:16:53.560] And then if the Antarctic ice sheets melt and Greenland ice and they all melt.
[00:16:53.560 --> 00:16:54.040] Yeah.
[00:16:54.040 --> 00:16:54.680] What are we?
[00:16:54.680 --> 00:16:55.800] Is it Water World?
[00:16:56.200 --> 00:16:57.720] Is it Kevin Costner Water World?
[00:16:57.960 --> 00:17:02.840] So if we just lose, so Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are the ones that are on the table.
[00:17:02.840 --> 00:17:03.480] For now.
[00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:04.200] For now.
[00:17:04.520 --> 00:17:05.240] For now.
[00:17:05.560 --> 00:17:12.120] If we just lose Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it's 13 meters of sea level rise.
[00:17:12.120 --> 00:17:14.120] Good, that'll hang out my house.
[00:17:14.120 --> 00:17:17.080] Yeah, so 42 feet for our American audience.
[00:17:17.080 --> 00:17:24.440] Say goodbye to chunks of large chunks of New York, Miami, Shanghai, the Netherlands, a ton of Bangladesh.
[00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:33.400] Not only that, there are then fears that the fresh water that comes from all of that melts will then enter the oceans and muck up the currents.
[00:17:33.400 --> 00:17:38.840] And if you read the news, it sounds like we are on the brink of crossing those tipping points.
[00:17:38.840 --> 00:17:39.640] Oh, no.
[00:17:39.640 --> 00:17:41.240] But is that true?
[00:17:42.520 --> 00:17:44.960] Well, hopefully you'll tell me.
[00:17:44.120 --> 00:17:46.240] After the break.
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[00:20:41.960 --> 00:20:42.680] Welcome back.
[00:20:42.680 --> 00:20:45.880] Today on the show, we're looking at tipping points.
[00:20:45.880 --> 00:20:48.600] Next stop, the ice sheets.
[00:20:48.600 --> 00:20:52.040] So we're going to find out when will they tip.
[00:20:52.040 --> 00:20:54.280] And I'm here with comedian Michael Hing.
[00:20:54.280 --> 00:20:54.680] Hello.
[00:20:54.680 --> 00:20:55.880] Hey, Michael.
[00:20:55.880 --> 00:21:02.520] Can I ask, like, what is the actual process of an ice sheet uncontrollably melting?
[00:21:02.520 --> 00:21:03.880] Like, what happens?
[00:21:03.880 --> 00:21:05.240] It's like it starts to melt.
[00:21:05.240 --> 00:21:10.600] And then, what is it about the water and the temperature that means it's all over?
[00:21:10.600 --> 00:21:14.600] So, it's different for different ice sheets, but let's just do the Greenland ice sheet.
[00:21:14.600 --> 00:21:22.880] So, with the Greenland ice sheet, picture this like big dome of ice, but ice can behave like a fluid.
[00:21:22.880 --> 00:21:24.720] So, here's Dr.
[00:21:24.720 --> 00:21:26.720] Felicity McCormack again.
[00:21:27.040 --> 00:21:29.760] The ice sheet actually spreads under its own weight.
[00:21:29.760 --> 00:21:31.040] So, it's like honey, right?
[00:21:31.040 --> 00:21:34.800] As you warm it up, it kind of like spreads across a table.
[00:21:34.800 --> 00:21:42.640] So, if you imagine at the top of this ice dome, this honey ice dome, there's a couple of things going on.
[00:21:42.640 --> 00:21:47.040] So, the air at the top of this icy dome is colder than the air at the bottom.
[00:21:47.040 --> 00:21:47.600] Sure.
[00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:50.240] And because the higher you go, the colder it gets.
[00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:52.240] Like, if you climb a mountain, classic.
[00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:52.640] Classic.
[00:21:53.440 --> 00:21:55.120] Outside an aeroplane, very cold.
[00:21:55.120 --> 00:21:55.600] Very cold.
[00:21:55.600 --> 00:21:56.080] That's right.
[00:21:56.080 --> 00:21:57.760] The higher you get, the colder it gets.
[00:21:57.760 --> 00:22:03.920] And so, the idea is that as it melts from the top, it'll just shrink because it'll be like melting and melting and melting.
[00:22:03.920 --> 00:22:04.400] Yeah.
[00:22:04.400 --> 00:22:13.920] So, the worry is that as this ice sheet melts, it's getting shorter, further and further away from the cold air and into the warmer air.
[00:22:13.920 --> 00:22:14.400] Yep.
[00:22:14.400 --> 00:22:16.160] That's going to make it melt faster.
[00:22:16.160 --> 00:22:29.760] But then, not only that, what will happen is because now you're imagining the whole thing sort of moving from the bottom, it starts to stretch out and move out into the coastline.
[00:22:29.760 --> 00:22:36.000] Oh, and so then more portions of it will be like at sea level or whatever.
[00:22:36.000 --> 00:22:36.640] Yes.
[00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:37.760] Oh, no.
[00:22:38.720 --> 00:22:43.600] The thing about sea level is like the sea, that's liquid water.
[00:22:43.600 --> 00:22:44.560] That's liquid.
[00:22:44.560 --> 00:22:45.440] That's liquid.
[00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:45.840] That's right.
[00:22:45.840 --> 00:23:00.000] And so basically, what scientists are trying to work out when they work out the tipping point of Greenland is like the temperature that tips that whole process into self-perpetuating cascade.
[00:23:00.760 --> 00:23:02.040] Yeah, yeah.
[00:23:02.360 --> 00:23:09.560] So will you come on an adventure with me as we explore how scientists get to this point?
[00:23:09.560 --> 00:23:10.360] Yes.
[00:23:10.360 --> 00:23:17.400] Okay, so one thing you can do is look at satellite data and see how the ice has melted in response to climate change.
[00:23:17.400 --> 00:23:19.080] Sometimes you see those on the internet.
[00:23:19.080 --> 00:23:19.480] Yes.
[00:23:19.480 --> 00:23:20.600] And it's never good.
[00:23:20.600 --> 00:23:21.240] It's never good.
[00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:26.040] It's like, hey, here's a picture of like, you know, the world in 1963 or whatever.
[00:23:26.040 --> 00:23:28.360] And did you know most of the world was ice caps?
[00:23:29.000 --> 00:23:37.640] And then they compare it to like, they go, hey, and then last Tuesday we took this photo and it's like, oh, it actually turns out Santa lives in a desert.
[00:23:37.640 --> 00:23:39.240] It's the North Pole now.
[00:23:39.240 --> 00:23:40.120] It's just Santa.
[00:23:40.600 --> 00:23:42.520] No, obviously not that bad.
[00:23:42.520 --> 00:23:43.560] It's not that bad.
[00:23:43.560 --> 00:23:44.680] But we've been losing ice.
[00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:46.120] We've been losing ice.
[00:23:46.120 --> 00:23:49.880] Now from this, scientists could tell like, yeah, ice is sensitive.
[00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:50.520] This isn't good.
[00:23:50.520 --> 00:23:53.160] But it can't tell us if we're on a tipping point.
[00:23:53.160 --> 00:23:57.080] So to get to that, we have to go deep into our past.
[00:23:57.080 --> 00:24:02.680] And Michael, where we're going, we don't need roads.
[00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:04.760] So Dr.
[00:24:04.760 --> 00:24:14.440] Sarah Daz at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution flies off to this vast cold mountain of ice.
[00:24:14.440 --> 00:24:17.240] We're heading to the Greenland ice sheet.
[00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:21.240] You're flying to a place where no one's set foot ever before.
[00:24:21.240 --> 00:24:33.160] And as you fly up over the edge, you're just going over the most dynamic and colorful and exciting features that ice is like nothing else on the planet, really.
[00:24:33.160 --> 00:24:37.160] It's melting, it's breaking, it's, you know, it's like lava, but it's cold.
[00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:45.280] And then you fly up over these just bluest of blue lakes and these raging rivers and the whitest white snow.
[00:24:44.840 --> 00:24:46.960] Yeah, it's extraordinary.
[00:24:47.280 --> 00:24:56.640] Sarah is out here in this majestic landscape, and what she's doing is drilling what are called ice cores, which I thought sounded very romantic.
[00:24:58.480 --> 00:24:59.280] No, I don't know.
[00:24:59.280 --> 00:25:00.880] I don't even know.
[00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:01.920] What do you mean?
[00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:02.960] What do you mean?
[00:25:02.960 --> 00:25:05.120] Well, Sarah agrees with you.
[00:25:05.120 --> 00:25:08.160] It's not all romance.
[00:25:08.160 --> 00:25:21.760] When you're out there working night and day with your small team, sleeping in tents on the snow and melting snow for water and eating dehyde, like you're not always so enamored with the ice cores.
[00:25:21.760 --> 00:25:29.440] You're just trying to get the work done and you not get too much frostbite and not get the drill stuck.
[00:25:30.720 --> 00:25:33.440] What has happened in your love life, Wendy?
[00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:37.280] I remember drilling ice cores, going back in time.
[00:25:37.600 --> 00:25:39.760] Look, Sarah set me straight.
[00:25:39.760 --> 00:25:49.600] And so what she's doing is basically to paint a picture of this industrial work that she's doing is she's pulling out these like giant cylinders of ice.
[00:25:49.600 --> 00:25:53.600] You can sort of imagine coring like a giant cold apple.
[00:25:53.600 --> 00:25:59.440] And scientists like Sarah are drilling deep into the ice because the deeper you go, the older the ice is.
[00:25:59.440 --> 00:26:00.480] Yeah, I've heard about this.
[00:26:00.480 --> 00:26:04.240] And you can look at the different, I guess, layers of ice.
[00:26:04.240 --> 00:26:05.280] And then you go back and back.
[00:26:05.280 --> 00:26:09.680] And it's like, oh my goodness, did you know like 250 years ago, it was just pure water or whatever.
[00:26:09.840 --> 00:26:11.280] So it's not like 200 years.
[00:26:11.280 --> 00:26:14.240] So scientists can go back like hundreds of thousands of years.
[00:26:14.240 --> 00:26:14.960] Oh, wow.
[00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:17.920] There's ice cores that go back a million years, right?
[00:26:17.920 --> 00:26:20.400] So I call it like this magic time machine.
[00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:21.360] It's not magic, right?
[00:26:21.360 --> 00:26:25.520] I mean, science isn't magic, but there is something magical about what we've learned.
[00:26:25.520 --> 00:26:30.000] And so Sarah calls it a magic, not magic, science time machine.
[00:26:30.440 --> 00:26:37.960] Because in the Earth's lifetime, there were times when it was like way hotter than it is today and the ice sheets had completely melted.
[00:26:37.960 --> 00:26:40.120] There were other times it was much cooler.
[00:26:40.120 --> 00:26:49.240] And so scientists can analyze these ice cores like tree rings to see like what was going on with the ice sheets when the Earth was at different temperatures.
[00:26:49.560 --> 00:27:02.520] And Sarah could see when it came to Greenland that nearly 10,000 years ago, when the climate was only like a little bit warmer than it is now, that parts of the Greenland ice sheet had significantly shrunk.
[00:27:03.320 --> 00:27:10.040] So does that mean, so when someone like Sarah looks at this, they probably think that's where we're headed.
[00:27:10.040 --> 00:27:11.320] Yeah, it's a clue.
[00:27:11.320 --> 00:27:12.360] It's a clue.
[00:27:12.360 --> 00:27:13.960] And then, so there's other clues.
[00:27:13.960 --> 00:27:16.440] This is a really cool clue I want to tell you about.
[00:27:16.440 --> 00:27:22.600] So scientists, they'll drill down through the ice and then keep going until you get to the dirt below.
[00:27:22.600 --> 00:27:27.320] And that in Greenland, that dirt is at least 400,000 years old.
[00:27:27.640 --> 00:27:45.400] And what they can see in that, in that dirt, this was reported just this year, is they found like a poppy seed and an insect eye from an insect that presumably would have been flying around 400,000 years ago when there was no ice sheet.
[00:27:46.680 --> 00:27:49.960] Do you want to see a 400,000 year old insect eye?
[00:27:49.960 --> 00:27:50.920] Yeah, yeah.
[00:27:51.560 --> 00:27:52.520] Yeah, of course.
[00:27:52.520 --> 00:27:53.240] Here we go.
[00:27:54.040 --> 00:28:05.400] It's like kind of like a classic hexagonal kind of print that you would see in a fly's eye if you zoomed in, but a chunk of it is missing, which I guess after 400,000 years, you'd expect some deterioration.
[00:28:05.560 --> 00:28:07.320] I mean, it's pretty well preserved, right?
[00:28:07.280 --> 00:28:07.600] Yeah.
[00:28:07.640 --> 00:28:10.120] And they actually say in the paper that it's possibly a fly.
[00:28:10.120 --> 00:28:11.720] Hey, I know my insect eyes.
[00:28:12.280 --> 00:28:14.440] But an insect eye can only get you so far.
[00:28:14.440 --> 00:28:30.640] So, just quickly, to understand what tipping points are, scientists also use climate models, which you've probably heard of, but what they are are these like computer simulations, very detailed computer simulations of how we think these ginormous hunks of ice melt.
[00:28:30.640 --> 00:28:36.400] And basically, researchers will take them and then make the temperature go up and up and up and up.
[00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:40.960] And then they look to see like basically when the boat starts to sink.
[00:28:40.960 --> 00:28:41.920] Uh-huh.
[00:28:41.920 --> 00:28:44.720] And so you put it all together.
[00:28:44.720 --> 00:28:48.160] Thank you for coming on this long, crowded path journey with me.
[00:28:48.160 --> 00:28:48.800] Here we go.
[00:28:48.800 --> 00:28:49.440] Here we go.
[00:28:49.440 --> 00:28:49.920] Here we go.
[00:28:49.920 --> 00:28:50.400] Here we go.
[00:28:50.400 --> 00:28:50.880] Come on.
[00:28:50.880 --> 00:28:52.320] Okay, you put it all together.
[00:28:52.320 --> 00:28:53.280] You got the ice cores.
[00:28:53.280 --> 00:28:54.320] You got the satellite data.
[00:28:54.640 --> 00:28:56.560] You got the computer models.
[00:28:56.880 --> 00:28:57.840] What do we know?
[00:28:57.840 --> 00:29:00.560] When will the ice sheets tip?
[00:29:01.200 --> 00:29:06.240] So a recent study that got a lot of attention looked through a ton of studies and it estimated.
[00:29:06.240 --> 00:29:10.720] Now, you know, Michael, these scientists are trying their darndest here.
[00:29:10.880 --> 00:29:12.480] They are trying their darndest.
[00:29:12.480 --> 00:29:19.280] They have tried so hard to understand that temperature that's going to make the whole thing tip.
[00:29:19.280 --> 00:29:25.280] And remember, the stakes are: ice sheets melt, sea levels rise 13 meters.
[00:29:25.280 --> 00:29:25.920] That's right.
[00:29:25.920 --> 00:29:26.320] Okay.
[00:29:26.320 --> 00:29:27.200] That's right.
[00:29:27.200 --> 00:29:27.760] Okay.
[00:29:27.760 --> 00:29:28.640] That's right.
[00:29:28.640 --> 00:29:29.120] Okay.
[00:29:29.440 --> 00:29:33.200] But in this paper, they gave a range.
[00:29:33.520 --> 00:29:36.400] So, best case scenario, let's start with the best case scenario.
[00:29:36.720 --> 00:29:45.760] They said the tipping point of Greenland is the Greenland ice sheet is three degrees above pre-industrial levels.
[00:29:45.760 --> 00:29:46.240] Okay.
[00:29:46.240 --> 00:29:50.560] Which could be, under current projections, at the end of the century.
[00:29:50.560 --> 00:29:50.880] Okay.
[00:29:51.120 --> 00:29:52.240] 75 years away.
[00:29:52.240 --> 00:29:53.360] I'll be dead by then.
[00:29:53.600 --> 00:30:02.360] I mean, that's not, that's very selfish of me to say that, but that's that was an honest reaction in the moment, and that's all we need.
[00:30:02.360 --> 00:30:05.080] The West Antarctic ice sheet, by the way, roughly the same.
[00:30:05.080 --> 00:30:05.560] Okay.
[00:30:05.560 --> 00:30:05.720] Okay.
[00:29:59.840 --> 00:30:06.520] So that was best case scenario.
[00:30:06.680 --> 00:30:09.080] Worst case scenario, end of the century.
[00:30:09.720 --> 00:30:10.360] Okay.
[00:30:10.360 --> 00:30:21.400] Worst case scenario: Greenland ice sheet has a tipping point of just under one degree above pre-industrial levels.
[00:30:21.400 --> 00:30:24.840] Oh, so we've already tipped.
[00:30:24.840 --> 00:30:26.600] We're post-tip.
[00:30:26.600 --> 00:30:28.760] Post-tip.
[00:30:29.640 --> 00:30:31.880] West Antarctic ice sheet as well.
[00:30:32.200 --> 00:30:38.920] Yeah, well, I mean, seems this has put like this.
[00:30:38.920 --> 00:30:44.520] Now that I know that, a lot of the laughing and joking we did before will seem insensitive.
[00:30:44.520 --> 00:30:46.440] The apocalypse is upon us.
[00:30:46.440 --> 00:30:51.160] And like, well, I guess that leads.
[00:30:51.480 --> 00:30:52.040] We can't.
[00:30:52.120 --> 00:30:53.240] We're not going to end here.
[00:30:53.240 --> 00:30:54.760] We're not going to end here.
[00:30:54.760 --> 00:30:55.720] Because then the question is.
[00:30:56.520 --> 00:30:57.640] That should be the end of the episode.
[00:30:57.800 --> 00:30:57.960] No.
[00:30:58.120 --> 00:31:03.400] Just you and I in stunned silence, feeling incredibly helpless.
[00:31:04.040 --> 00:31:06.600] Is that how you're feeling in this moment?
[00:31:06.600 --> 00:31:11.640] I did not realize that there's a chance we would already pass the tipping point.
[00:31:11.640 --> 00:31:12.200] Yeah.
[00:31:12.200 --> 00:31:18.440] And if we have passed a point where any of us can do anything, I mean, you sort of retreat to nihilism, right?
[00:31:18.440 --> 00:31:19.640] It's like, well, what's the point?
[00:31:19.640 --> 00:31:20.920] Nothing matters.
[00:31:20.920 --> 00:31:26.040] You know, should I even be paying $8 to offset the plane ticket that I, you know?
[00:31:26.040 --> 00:31:26.360] Yeah.
[00:31:26.360 --> 00:31:28.280] Does any of it matter?
[00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:37.080] I mean, probably don't pay that eight dollars right what do you mean wait, do you mean because of tipping point or just in general?
[00:31:37.080 --> 00:31:39.080] I mean, surely they're a scare, right?
[00:31:39.080 --> 00:31:42.360] Well, I continue with your thought process.
[00:31:42.360 --> 00:33:21.560] That's for another episode so is there anything that can happen in the next whatever i don't know 50 years two years a hundred years is there anything we can do that could possibly help any of this yes yes yes yes the thing that i think tipping points um bring out in people is this sense of like we have lost control that boat is sinking after all this is an irreversible the state of that ice sheet has shifted and now it's gonna melt and melt and melt that knitting sheep it's doomed that's right that's right but but when i asked like every scientist i spoke to a lot of them and i was like so does this mean game over and they were all like no no no no no no no no no no it's not game over there's at no point do you stop fighting because even if we've crossed the tipping point of greenland or the west antarctic ice sheet and we might not have right we might not have a lot of scientists i spoke to thought maybe we still have time uh-huh but even if we have crossed them what we do now it could matter a lot so i talked about this with sarah and she said that there's this big misconception out there that once we cross a tipping point climate collapse happens right away i mean you think about hollywood movies and everything happens fast ice sheets melt your house is underwater by sunday like 20 years or so ago right that's you're probably familiar with this movie the day after tomorrow yes yes that was like a hollywoodization of you know the shutdown of the AMOC, everything flash freezing over.
[00:33:21.560 --> 00:33:22.680] I mean, it was crazy, right?
[00:33:23.160 --> 00:33:33.480] And then, and then again, we have the don't look up where it's like you have the don't look up the metaphor of climate change was an asteroid coming very much so, yeah, and like tipping points really fit into that, right?
[00:33:33.480 --> 00:33:36.600] But it's not an asteroid.
[00:33:36.600 --> 00:33:52.520] So, even if, worst-case scenario, we have crossed the tipping points of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it would take probably more than a thousand years, maybe even 10,000 years for them to completely collapse.
[00:33:52.840 --> 00:33:57.720] So, you would not particularly worried about something that was 75 years away, right?
[00:33:58.040 --> 00:34:13.400] No, so what you're talking about there is completely liquid ice sheets, the 13 meters of sea level, yeah, that's 13 meters of sea level rise, yes, but but the seas don't have to rise 13 meters for our lives to be profoundly changed by the climate, right?
[00:34:13.720 --> 00:34:17.800] Right, yes, and as they melt, sea levels will rise.
[00:34:17.800 --> 00:34:26.440] But the fact that this is happening slowly is actually really important because it means that we have time to adapt.
[00:34:26.440 --> 00:34:32.040] People can move to higher ground, which is actually something that's already happening in the US.
[00:34:32.040 --> 00:34:39.160] They've moved like thousands of people to higher ground, like away from the like away from flood-prone areas.
[00:34:39.640 --> 00:34:42.440] And we can also build sea walls.
[00:34:42.440 --> 00:34:48.200] So, if we have you know hundreds, thousands of years, we can do something about it.
[00:34:48.200 --> 00:34:55.800] And not only that, we can actually get a handle on our emissions so we don't heat up the climate as fast as we have been.
[00:34:55.800 --> 00:35:02.200] And if we do that, we might also slow down how fast these ice sheets melt.
[00:35:02.200 --> 00:35:04.320] Um, I talked about this with Sarah.
[00:35:04.320 --> 00:35:10.160] Because if we keep heating up the world, these ice sheets will melt faster, we think.
[00:35:10.480 --> 00:35:12.320] Even once we've hit a tipping point.
[00:35:12.320 --> 00:35:12.800] Absolutely.
[00:35:12.800 --> 00:35:13.400] Absolutely.
[00:35:13.400 --> 00:35:27.600] That we know, even once we've hit a tipping point, even if Greenland reaches some point where it's just going to melt away, you know, if that could take 10,000 years versus 5,000 years, that gives us a lot more time to adapt and prepare.
[00:35:27.600 --> 00:35:29.760] You know, we can buy ourselves time.
[00:35:29.760 --> 00:35:34.080] So there's never a point at which we can be like, oops, all right, too late.
[00:35:34.080 --> 00:35:35.760] No need to do anything.
[00:35:35.760 --> 00:35:49.600] So I guess to all of this stuff about, you know, we have two years left to save the planet, or at the start of the show, how you said that you thought maybe tipping points meant that if we stopped all carbon emissions, it wouldn't matter.
[00:35:49.600 --> 00:35:51.360] The catastrophe is already here.
[00:35:51.360 --> 00:35:57.040] I mean, the truth is that it still does matter our carbon emissions.
[00:35:58.480 --> 00:36:02.640] There really isn't a planetary cutoff.
[00:36:02.640 --> 00:36:03.840] And so here's Dr.
[00:36:03.840 --> 00:36:04.960] Seva Wang.
[00:36:05.280 --> 00:36:14.400] There is no tipping point beyond which Mother Earth wrestles control of the whole climate system away from human beings and proceeds to punish us for our sins.
[00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:17.760] From a scientific perspective, that's just not how it works.
[00:36:17.760 --> 00:36:24.080] And so what I tell people is humans have their hand on the thermostat and that's that's not going to change.
[00:36:24.400 --> 00:36:40.320] And so with our hand on that dial, at least in control of how much hotter it's going to get, what it all really means is just forget this idea of runaway climate change.
[00:36:41.520 --> 00:36:51.200] It's more like the more emissions that we put into the atmosphere, the worse this gets, and the less emissions, the better it gets.
[00:36:51.200 --> 00:36:51.680] Yeah.
[00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:55.120] And I know you know this, but that is true.
[00:36:55.120 --> 00:36:55.760] That is true.
[00:36:55.760 --> 00:37:04.040] Like tipping points, whether we hit tipping points or whether we don't, climate change is here now.
[00:37:04.360 --> 00:37:06.200] Here's Sarah on this.
[00:37:06.520 --> 00:37:10.200] You don't need tipping points to scare me.
[00:37:10.520 --> 00:37:18.440] You can take them off the table, and the sea surface temperatures are warming off the charts, heat waves killing thousands of people.
[00:37:18.440 --> 00:37:20.120] We have coral reefs dying.
[00:37:20.120 --> 00:37:21.400] We have glaciers melting.
[00:37:21.400 --> 00:37:22.520] Never mind tipping points.
[00:37:22.520 --> 00:37:28.040] We have sea level rising, flooding all over the place, you know, rise of diseases.
[00:37:28.040 --> 00:37:29.720] I mean, all sorts of effects.
[00:37:30.200 --> 00:37:31.000] Fires, right?
[00:37:31.000 --> 00:37:31.480] You name it.
[00:37:31.480 --> 00:37:39.480] You wake up any given day and open the newspaper, no matter where you are in the world, and you can see an example of a climate change impact.
[00:37:40.840 --> 00:37:41.480] Yeah.
[00:37:41.480 --> 00:38:01.880] And maybe, maybe just to cap us off here, like given all of this, these terrible things that are happening to the planet right now because of climate change, I've actually, I've kind of started to think about tipping points a bit like that distracted boyfriend meme.
[00:38:01.880 --> 00:38:03.480] Oh, and the guy's looking over his shoulder.
[00:38:03.480 --> 00:38:07.800] Yeah, and everyone's like looking at the tipping points and being like, when are they going to come?
[00:38:07.800 --> 00:38:13.320] And then like the girlfriend in the back is like, I'm climate change and I'm right here.
[00:38:13.640 --> 00:38:15.640] Look at me now.
[00:38:15.960 --> 00:38:18.840] I am making your lives bad right now.
[00:38:19.960 --> 00:38:26.600] When did Sites Versus become a podcast that describes like memes from like eight years ago?
[00:38:27.640 --> 00:38:29.000] It was a big one.
[00:38:29.000 --> 00:38:29.480] Oh no.
[00:38:29.480 --> 00:38:31.560] Look, hey, everyone knows what you're talking about.
[00:38:31.520 --> 00:38:35.640] And it's, to be clear, it was a very effective communication tool.
[00:38:36.760 --> 00:38:37.640] Well, good.
[00:38:37.640 --> 00:38:38.760] Thank you.
[00:38:38.760 --> 00:38:43.080] And I know this has been a little bit depressing this whole episode.
[00:38:43.080 --> 00:38:44.040] I know.
[00:38:44.040 --> 00:38:52.800] But I do want to say that there is some good news when it comes to how we are solving this, how we are getting off fossil fuels.
[00:38:52.800 --> 00:38:58.880] I mean, because I had thought we were really just like twiddling our thumbs while Rome burns.
[00:38:59.200 --> 00:39:02.320] But I think there is some little bit of hope.
[00:39:02.320 --> 00:39:05.600] There is some exciting stuff happening with renewables.
[00:39:05.920 --> 00:39:07.280] There is some good news.
[00:39:07.280 --> 00:39:08.160] Here we go.
[00:39:08.160 --> 00:39:11.280] But we're going to save it for a different episode.
[00:39:11.280 --> 00:39:12.560] Oh, that I'm not on?
[00:39:12.720 --> 00:39:13.120] Great.
[00:39:13.120 --> 00:39:13.600] Okay.
[00:39:13.600 --> 00:39:14.400] Thanks, Wendy.
[00:39:14.400 --> 00:39:14.960] Thank you.
[00:39:14.960 --> 00:39:20.880] What we're going to do for our how to stop the climate crisis episode is it's going to be a QA.
[00:39:20.880 --> 00:39:30.640] So we're getting listener questions, which could include, should you, your question number one, should you get the $8 carbon offset?
[00:39:30.640 --> 00:39:36.160] So we've got a panel of experts to talk about renewables, how we get to net zero, questions.
[00:39:36.160 --> 00:39:40.480] If you've got questions about can we actually solve this?
[00:39:40.480 --> 00:39:48.640] You know, that's, I'm actually going to have to listen to that episode then, because if you've listened to this one and you're thinking to yourself, oh my goodness, it's all completely screwed.
[00:39:48.640 --> 00:39:54.400] And you're feeling like I am right now, which is exhausted and a little bit betrayed by your friend Wendy.
[00:39:54.400 --> 00:40:03.200] Frankly, then really the only remedy to that is listening to the next episode where, I mean, frankly, Wendy, you've got some work to do.
[00:40:03.200 --> 00:40:03.760] That's yes.
[00:40:04.080 --> 00:40:05.360] To regain my trust.
[00:40:05.360 --> 00:40:05.760] Yes.
[00:40:05.760 --> 00:40:11.040] So if you have any questions, then you can go to our Instagram sites underscore VS.
[00:40:11.040 --> 00:40:21.040] You could ask me on my TikTok at WendyZuckerman, or you can send us a video or voicemail to our wonderful senior producer, Meryl.
[00:40:21.040 --> 00:40:25.520] Her email is merylh at spotify.com.
[00:40:25.520 --> 00:40:27.520] If you're in the US, there's a number to call.
[00:40:27.520 --> 00:40:29.440] We're going to put all of this in the show notes.
[00:40:29.440 --> 00:40:32.520] Really, I'm really excited to know what your questions are.
[00:40:32.520 --> 00:40:35.000] Well, thank you so much for having me, Wendy.
[00:40:29.840 --> 00:40:36.280] It's been a real pleasure.
[00:40:36.600 --> 00:40:38.120] Thanks for coming, Michael.
[00:40:38.120 --> 00:40:39.960] See you again soon.
[00:40:45.960 --> 00:40:49.880] This episode has 107 citations in it.
[00:40:49.880 --> 00:40:55.080] So if you want to read more about tipping points, just go to our show notes and there's a link to our transcript.
[00:40:55.080 --> 00:41:03.640] And while you're looking at the show notes, you can see all of the ways to contact us if you've got questions about renewables and solving this climate crisis.
[00:41:03.640 --> 00:41:08.760] If you want to hear more from Veichel, he has not one but two podcasts.
[00:41:08.760 --> 00:41:15.560] There's Free to a Good Home and his long-running Dungeons and Dragons podcast, which is called Dragon Friends.
[00:41:15.560 --> 00:41:21.800] This episode was produced by me, Wendy Zuckerman, with help from Meryl Horn, Rose Rimler, Aketti Foster Keys, and Michelle Dang.
[00:41:21.800 --> 00:41:23.320] We're edited by Blythe Terrell.
[00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:25.000] Fact-checking by Diane Kelly.
[00:41:25.000 --> 00:41:27.160] Mix and sound design by Sam Baer.
[00:41:27.160 --> 00:41:30.840] Music written by Bobby Lord, Bumi Hidaka, and So Wiley.
[00:41:30.840 --> 00:41:33.480] Thanks to all of the researchers that I spoke to.
[00:41:33.480 --> 00:41:35.800] Oh my gosh, thank you so much.
[00:41:35.800 --> 00:41:40.840] I spoke to so many climate scientists and this is just a handful of them.
[00:41:40.840 --> 00:41:44.040] Professor Andrew Dessler, Professor Christina Hulbe, Dr.
[00:41:44.040 --> 00:41:48.440] David Armstrong McKay, Professor Tim Lenton, Aditya Lola, Dr.
[00:41:48.440 --> 00:41:49.880] Elizabeth Maroon, Dr.
[00:41:49.880 --> 00:41:52.920] Yan Nitzpin, Professor Johannes Kwass, Dr.
[00:41:52.920 --> 00:41:54.360] Jonathan Leung, Dr.
[00:41:54.360 --> 00:41:55.720] Kirsten Schell, Dr.
[00:41:55.720 --> 00:41:58.520] Maddie Rosevar, Michelle Dvorak, Dr.
[00:41:58.520 --> 00:41:59.800] Robin Lambaugh, Dr.
[00:41:59.800 --> 00:42:01.240] Zeke Housefather, Dr.
[00:42:01.240 --> 00:42:04.440] Sam Kreva, Flower Zhang, and others.
[00:42:04.440 --> 00:42:07.800] And extra thanks to the Zuckerman family and Joseph Lavelle Wilson.
[00:42:07.800 --> 00:42:10.360] Science Versus is a Spotify Studios original.
[00:42:10.360 --> 00:42:14.880] Listen to us for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
[00:42:14.520 --> 00:42:16.400] We are everywhere.
[00:42:16.720 --> 00:42:24.400] If you are listening on Spotify, then follow us and tap the bell icon, and then you'll get notifications when new episodes arrive.
[00:42:24.400 --> 00:42:25.760] I'm Wendy Zuckerman.
[00:42:25.760 --> 00:42:27.280] Back to you next time.
[00:42:35.280 --> 00:42:37.360] Hello, this is Michael.
[00:42:37.840 --> 00:42:44.160] At one point, Wendy's editors thought that it sounded like I was genuinely mad at Wendy.
[00:42:44.160 --> 00:42:49.360] So I guess this is just like a voice message from me after the fact saying that I wasn't mad at Wendy.
[00:42:49.360 --> 00:42:53.680] We're friends and we've known each other for a very long time and I was just joking around.
[00:42:54.000 --> 00:42:58.480] So I wasn't mad at Wendy, is what I'm telling you.
[00:43:02.000 --> 00:43:04.240] I can almost hear my mom in the background.
[00:43:04.240 --> 00:43:05.360] Good.
[00:43:06.800 --> 00:43:08.000] Now, can I go now?
[00:43:08.000 --> 00:43:09.200] Is that okay?
[00:43:15.840 --> 00:43:17.040] Listen.
[00:43:17.680 --> 00:43:22.080] That's the sound of the fully electric Audi Q6 e-tron.
[00:43:22.720 --> 00:43:31.600] The sound of captivating electric performance, dynamic drive, and the quiet confidence of ultra-smooth handling.
[00:43:32.240 --> 00:43:35.920] The elevated interior reminds you this is more than an EV.
[00:43:36.240 --> 00:43:39.760] This is electric performance redefined.
[00:43:40.400 --> 00:43:43.520] The fully electric Audi Q6 e-tron.
Prompt 2: Key Takeaways
Now please extract the key takeaways from the transcript content I provided.
Extract the most important key takeaways from this part of the conversation. Use a single sentence statement (the key takeaway) rather than milquetoast descriptions like "the hosts discuss...".
Limit the key takeaways to a maximum of 3. The key takeaways should be insightful and knowledge-additive.
IMPORTANT: Return ONLY valid JSON, no explanations or markdown. Ensure:
- All strings are properly quoted and escaped
- No trailing commas
- All braces and brackets are balanced
Format: {"key_takeaways": ["takeaway 1", "takeaway 2"]}
Prompt 3: Segments
Now identify 2-4 distinct topical segments from this part of the conversation.
For each segment, identify:
- Descriptive title (3-6 words)
- START timestamp when this topic begins (HH:MM:SS format)
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Most important Key takeaway from that segment. Key takeaway must be specific and knowledge-additive.
- Brief summary of the discussion
IMPORTANT: The timestamp should mark when the topic/segment STARTS, not a range. Look for topic transitions and conversation shifts.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted, no trailing commas:
{
"segments": [
{
"segment_title": "Topic Discussion",
"timestamp": "01:15:30",
"key_takeaway": "main point from this segment",
"segment_summary": "brief description of what was discussed"
}
]
}
Timestamp format: HH:MM:SS (e.g., 00:05:30, 01:22:45) marking the START of each segment.
Now scan the transcript content I provided for ACTUAL mentions of specific media titles:
Find explicit mentions of:
- Books (with specific titles)
- Movies (with specific titles)
- TV Shows (with specific titles)
- Music/Songs (with specific titles)
DO NOT include:
- Websites, URLs, or web services
- Other podcasts or podcast names
IMPORTANT:
- Only include items explicitly mentioned by name. Do not invent titles.
- Valid categories are: "Book", "Movie", "TV Show", "Music"
- Include the exact phrase where each item was mentioned
- Find the nearest proximate timestamp where it appears in the conversation
- THE TIMESTAMP OF THE MEDIA MENTION IS IMPORTANT - DO NOT INVENT TIMESTAMPS AND DO NOT MISATTRIBUTE TIMESTAMPS
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Timestamps are given as ranges, e.g. 01:13:42.520 --> 01:13:46.720. Use the EARLIER of the 2 timestamps in the range.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted and escaped, no trailing commas:
{
"media_mentions": [
{
"title": "Exact Title as Mentioned",
"category": "Book",
"author_artist": "N/A",
"context": "Brief context of why it was mentioned",
"context_phrase": "The exact sentence or phrase where it was mentioned",
"timestamp": "estimated time like 01:15:30"
}
]
}
If no media is mentioned, return: {"media_mentions": []}
Full Transcript
[00:00:00.960 --> 00:00:03.840] Hi, I'm Wendy Zuckerman, and you're listening to Sides Versus.
[00:00:05.760 --> 00:00:10.480] Today on the show, did we just cross the tipping point?
[00:00:10.480 --> 00:00:14.560] When it comes to climate change, how screwed are we?
[00:00:19.040 --> 00:00:26.640] And to add a little comedy to this drama, I've invited my mate, Australian comic Michael Hing to the show.
[00:00:26.640 --> 00:00:27.520] Hi, Michael.
[00:00:27.520 --> 00:00:28.320] Hello, Wendy.
[00:00:28.560 --> 00:00:32.000] When you say to bring some comedy to this, is this a hilarious topic?
[00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:36.320] Because I do feel like a lot of people listening to this will just broadly be bummed out.
[00:00:36.320 --> 00:00:39.760] Yes, no, I mean, there are a lot of reasons to be bummed out.
[00:00:39.760 --> 00:00:42.400] Let's just quickly go through a couple of them.
[00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:49.360] For one, it has been weirdly, some might say freakishly hot recently.
[00:00:49.360 --> 00:00:53.200] We've just been seeing like month after month of record-breaking heat.
[00:00:53.200 --> 00:00:59.680] And I know even for people like mildly following climate stuff, you'll be used to hearing record-breaking heat.
[00:00:59.680 --> 00:01:11.280] But it's just seriously, if you look at the graphs of this year and last year, the temperature of the globe, like the average global temperature, just jumped.
[00:01:11.280 --> 00:01:14.240] Yeah, I have seen some news stories about that.
[00:01:14.240 --> 00:01:22.640] Yeah, and temperatures were actually supposed to have dropped, but August numbers just came in and it's still really hot.
[00:01:23.920 --> 00:01:36.800] Yeah, there's no a decade ago, you would occasionally get these like hopeful climate stories where I'd be like, oh my goodness, they've invented these new plastic balls they can put on the top of water or something and that'll save us.
[00:01:36.800 --> 00:01:45.680] Or like, hey, have you heard about all these seaweed pills we can give cows and that'll and like those stories have really dried up in the last decade, haven't they?
[00:01:46.640 --> 00:01:50.480] All the stuff we were like, let's really put our hopes to this.
[00:01:51.080 --> 00:01:53.440] You know, where are they now?
[00:01:54.160 --> 00:01:58.160] And if you'll bear with me for just one quick doomsday story.
[00:01:58.160 --> 00:01:58.960] Of course.
[00:01:58.960 --> 00:01:59.760] So, Dr.
[00:01:59.880 --> 00:02:09.080] Ed Dodderidge at the University of Tasmania in Australia studies Australia's sea ice, which is this layer of frozen ocean that surrounds Antarctica.
[00:02:09.080 --> 00:02:09.400] Okay.
[00:02:09.400 --> 00:02:16.120] And he told me that for ages, the sea ice would melt in summer and then refreeze in winter in this very predictable pattern.
[00:02:16.120 --> 00:02:17.640] It was like a heartbeat.
[00:02:17.640 --> 00:02:21.240] Well, every year, boom, boom, boom.
[00:02:21.560 --> 00:02:30.520] And that heartbeat had been looking like a little less healthy, but then last year, everyone was just kind of gobsmacked.
[00:02:30.520 --> 00:02:34.360] As a community, we were just standing there, flabbergasted.
[00:02:35.640 --> 00:02:36.520] What happened?
[00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:38.040] What just happened?
[00:02:38.040 --> 00:02:40.120] The ice just didn't grow back.
[00:02:40.120 --> 00:02:41.320] It just didn't grow back.
[00:02:41.320 --> 00:02:41.720] Yeah.
[00:02:41.960 --> 00:02:44.200] How much ice is missing?
[00:02:45.480 --> 00:02:51.240] At the maximum, we were missing about 2.7 million square kilometers of sea ice.
[00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:56.920] So that's the size of Western Australia or Alaska and Texas combined.
[00:02:56.920 --> 00:02:57.480] Whoa.
[00:02:57.720 --> 00:03:01.320] Like huge, huge areas of ice.
[00:03:01.320 --> 00:03:02.680] And that's terrifying.
[00:03:03.000 --> 00:03:05.240] What do you feel when you see this?
[00:03:05.240 --> 00:03:10.840] As a human, I just want to sit in a corner and cry.
[00:03:10.840 --> 00:03:11.320] Yeah.
[00:03:12.200 --> 00:03:13.640] It's bad.
[00:03:13.640 --> 00:03:15.480] It's really bad.
[00:03:15.800 --> 00:03:26.680] I think, also, in terms of a metaphor, calling something the heartbeat of the planet and then it's stopping is like pretty powerful.
[00:03:26.680 --> 00:03:27.240] Yeah.
[00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:27.800] Yeah.
[00:03:27.800 --> 00:03:41.640] And I think now with all this crazy heat and these, you know, really bad things happening across the planet, there's all of this talk that we're sort of on the brink of a tipping point.
[00:03:42.280 --> 00:03:45.520] And that is actually what today's episode is all about.
[00:03:44.920 --> 00:03:49.760] There's just these headlines saying, you know, we're so close to the tipping point.
[00:03:50.320 --> 00:03:54.640] UN official this year said we've got two years to save the planet.
[00:03:54.640 --> 00:04:02.720] And so, Michael, when you read or you hear stuff like, you know, we're on the brink of a tipping point, what do you think it means?
[00:04:02.720 --> 00:04:19.760] I would guess it means that like we're at a point in the history of the planet where we will not be able as a species to reverse the effects of what we've done.
[00:04:19.760 --> 00:04:25.760] And it'll create like a, I don't know, like almost a whirlpool effect.
[00:04:25.760 --> 00:04:34.400] It'll get faster and faster and the deterioration of the environment will be beyond our control.
[00:04:34.400 --> 00:04:46.480] And even if we stopped all carbon emissions tomorrow, it's like the catastrophe has already underway and cannot be stopped.
[00:04:46.480 --> 00:04:48.160] Like a runaway train.
[00:04:49.440 --> 00:04:57.200] And when you like watch docos or news reports about tipping points, what you described is exactly what I feel.
[00:04:57.200 --> 00:04:59.040] So this is like an example.
[00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:00.880] We're near the tipping point.
[00:05:00.880 --> 00:05:02.240] Things are getting bad.
[00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:03.680] They're worse than we thought.
[00:05:03.680 --> 00:05:09.120] If tipping points are crossed, that could spiral beyond human control.
[00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:16.160] And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible.
[00:05:17.440 --> 00:05:23.680] And so today on this show, is the Earth truly on the brink of a tipping point?
[00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:29.760] And are things getting so bad that the climate is about to spiral out of our control?
[00:05:30.040 --> 00:05:30.440] Okay.
[00:05:30.760 --> 00:05:34.280] We are going to go on a grand adventure on this search.
[00:05:34.280 --> 00:05:35.720] We are going to sink a boat.
[00:05:35.720 --> 00:05:37.800] We're going to travel to the ends of the earth.
[00:05:37.800 --> 00:05:42.760] We're going to drill a massive hole in Greenland until we find out.
[00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:45.000] And actually, you know what?
[00:05:45.000 --> 00:05:57.720] I will, I just not just for like good radio craft, but also for my own personal sanity, I will remain committed to the idea that there is possibly light at the end of the tunnel.
[00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:02.440] It's all coming up.
[00:06:09.720 --> 00:06:12.600] This episode is brought to you by KPMG.
[00:06:12.600 --> 00:06:19.000] Science helps shape how KPMG views transformation, but it's their people who make it real.
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[00:07:12.280 --> 00:07:13.480] Welcome back.
[00:07:13.480 --> 00:07:19.520] Today on the show, comedian Michael Hing and I are working out if we just crossed a tipping point.
[00:07:19.840 --> 00:07:26.160] And so far, things have been, frankly, Wendy, I'm not putting this all on you, but it's been pretty grim so far.
[00:07:26.160 --> 00:07:28.560] All right, time for some fun.
[00:07:29.200 --> 00:07:35.440] So the term tipping point gets bandied about a lot every time something bad happens in terms of the climate.
[00:07:35.440 --> 00:07:38.160] It's like when you're the tipping point, when you're the tipping point.
[00:07:38.160 --> 00:07:54.160] I kind of might have led you there in our intro, but this kind of like grides the gears of a lot of scientists because when scientists talk about tipping points, they're actually talking about this incredibly cool and very particular thing.
[00:07:54.160 --> 00:07:58.480] And I talked about them with Felicity McCormack at Monash University in Australia.
[00:07:58.480 --> 00:08:02.080] I mean, personally, I find the science of tipping points just so fascinating.
[00:08:02.080 --> 00:08:03.600] Like devastating and fascinating.
[00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:07.520] It's this, wow, like this is how the earth works.
[00:08:07.520 --> 00:08:15.200] So to find out how the earth works and what a tipping point really is, Felicity was like, let's start with an analogy.
[00:08:15.520 --> 00:08:18.560] So backstory, 2020 lockdowns.
[00:08:18.560 --> 00:08:20.960] I'm zooming reading books to my niece.
[00:08:20.960 --> 00:08:24.000] And one of the books was Who Sank the Boat by Pamela Allen.
[00:08:24.320 --> 00:08:28.880] So as Felicity is reading this book, she realizes it's an excellent depiction of a tipping point.
[00:08:28.880 --> 00:08:32.240] So in this book, picture it, you've got a bunch of animals.
[00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:37.280] So there's a cow and a donkey, and a sheep and a pig and a tiny little mouse.
[00:08:37.280 --> 00:08:40.000] Can I ask which is your favorite of the characters in Who Sank the Boat?
[00:08:42.000 --> 00:08:43.440] The cow is quite delightful.
[00:08:43.760 --> 00:08:44.720] But the sheep.
[00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:46.560] The sheep is knitting.
[00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:53.360] The sheep is knitting.
[00:08:53.360 --> 00:08:59.280] So you've got all these animals: the cow, the donkey, the pig, the sheep with his little knitting needles.
[00:08:59.600 --> 00:09:03.000] And they all decide to jump into a small rowboat.
[00:08:59.840 --> 00:09:05.080] One by one, they jump in.
[00:09:06.280 --> 00:09:08.600] First the cow, then the donkey.
[00:09:08.600 --> 00:09:21.000] And as each animal jumps in, the level of the boat drops a little lower, drops and drops and drops until finally the tiny little mouse jumps in and the boat sinks.
[00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:23.560] So the mouse sank the boat.
[00:09:23.560 --> 00:09:27.160] Now in the book, the animals just kind of collapse into the water.
[00:09:27.160 --> 00:09:28.440] They're all very good swimmers.
[00:09:28.440 --> 00:09:29.480] All the animals survive.
[00:09:29.720 --> 00:09:32.120] No one was hurt filming this book.
[00:09:32.120 --> 00:09:33.320] Yeah, you'd hope so.
[00:09:33.960 --> 00:09:40.600] What a horrifying children's book it would be if it was about animals piling into a boat and then all of them drowned.
[00:09:41.560 --> 00:09:43.000] Drowned the animals.
[00:09:43.960 --> 00:09:46.920] But to put this all into the context of climate change.
[00:09:47.240 --> 00:09:53.640] You can imagine that the weight of the animals is the heat from all the greenhouse gas emissions that we're putting into the air.
[00:09:53.640 --> 00:09:57.240] And as it gets hotter and hotter, the animals are piling on.
[00:09:57.240 --> 00:10:00.920] The boat can somehow hold on, like it hasn't sunk yet.
[00:10:00.920 --> 00:10:04.680] But it is dropping a little bit further and a little bit further, but not sinking.
[00:10:04.680 --> 00:10:11.720] But then all of a sudden, mouse jumps in, tiniest bit of heat, and bam, the boat sinks.
[00:10:11.720 --> 00:10:14.200] And so that is the tipping point.
[00:10:14.520 --> 00:10:17.480] So you can think of it like a temperature threshold.
[00:10:17.480 --> 00:10:25.720] And once we pass it, what happens next leads to an irreversible and self-perpetuating change.
[00:10:25.720 --> 00:10:32.280] So that means that even if no other animals jump into the boat, you get like no more warming.
[00:10:32.920 --> 00:10:35.000] The boat is still underwater.
[00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:42.040] Like once it's inundated, goes down and down and down until it hits the bottom and it's sunk.
[00:10:42.040 --> 00:10:43.400] Can I ask a question?
[00:10:43.400 --> 00:10:43.800] Yes.
[00:10:43.800 --> 00:10:52.720] If all the animals fall out and they swim away, you know, the boat itself, that'll sort of pop back up, right?
[00:10:53.600 --> 00:11:05.280] The thing is that the carbon dioxide that we've currently been putting into the atmosphere, it's going to stay up there for generations and generations.
[00:11:05.280 --> 00:11:07.360] And so it's still going to be hot.
[00:11:07.360 --> 00:11:16.880] Methane, which is another greenhouse gas that we are currently putting into the atmosphere, that will stay in the atmosphere for about a decade before it goes away.
[00:11:16.880 --> 00:11:18.080] So that is good.
[00:11:18.080 --> 00:11:25.600] But most of the heat that we are putting into this planet, it's not going to go anywhere for a really long time.
[00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:34.800] One scientist told me that, you know, we've often got this view with climate change that someone's going to come and like magic our way out of this and make it all better.
[00:11:34.800 --> 00:11:39.360] But the idea with tipping points is that that boat is sinking.
[00:11:39.680 --> 00:11:42.800] Once you've crossed the threshold, there's really no coming back.
[00:11:42.800 --> 00:11:46.720] So here's how Ed put it: he's the guy that studies sea ice.
[00:11:46.720 --> 00:11:50.160] There is no way to go back from that decision.
[00:11:50.160 --> 00:11:52.160] That's what a tipping point means.
[00:11:52.160 --> 00:11:55.200] It's an irreversible change.
[00:11:55.200 --> 00:12:01.520] You change something in the climate system so fundamentally that we can't get it back.
[00:12:01.840 --> 00:12:06.160] So, Michael, in this analogy, do you want to have a guess?
[00:12:06.160 --> 00:12:07.680] What's the boat?
[00:12:09.280 --> 00:12:10.480] Ooh.
[00:12:11.760 --> 00:12:15.680] I would say the boat is meant to be the climate.
[00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:17.120] Planet Earth.
[00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:19.120] Yeah, like the environment we live in.
[00:12:19.120 --> 00:12:20.800] That's sort of what I had thought too.
[00:12:20.800 --> 00:12:21.680] And Dr.
[00:12:21.680 --> 00:12:29.760] Seva Wang, who's at the Breakthrough Institute in California, he says a lot of people seem to think that the climate of planet Earth is the boat.
[00:12:30.040 --> 00:12:37.480] And it comes up in the question that I and every climate scientist I know get all the time, which is, are we screwed?
[00:12:37.880 --> 00:12:39.240] Have we crossed the point of no return?
[00:12:39.240 --> 00:12:39.960] Yeah.
[00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:47.720] So I think that's how everyone imagines climate change to be, where it's a cliff and beyond a certain temperature threshold, then all hell breaks loose.
[00:12:47.720 --> 00:12:57.720] So, for example, you sometimes see these headlines that the temperature threshold, the tipping point of Earth, is like 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
[00:12:57.720 --> 00:13:00.680] Have you heard about this number 1.5 C?
[00:13:00.680 --> 00:13:01.800] Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
[00:13:01.800 --> 00:13:07.000] The, you know, 1.5 degrees above like before the loom was motorized or whatever.
[00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:07.880] I don't know.
[00:13:08.920 --> 00:13:26.360] So the number came from the Paris Agreement, which is where all these countries came together and said, we've got a goal to limit the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which they say is 1850 to 1900.
[00:13:26.680 --> 00:13:29.800] It's a bit after the power loom was invented.
[00:13:29.800 --> 00:13:40.280] But anyway, so this number, 1.5 degrees Celsius, it's been great to have a goal like this, a clear target to talk about.
[00:13:40.280 --> 00:13:46.440] But now it's been reinterpreted as the tipping point of planet Earth.
[00:13:46.440 --> 00:13:47.000] Yep.
[00:13:47.000 --> 00:13:50.840] Some irreversible threshold for the whole climate.
[00:13:51.400 --> 00:14:04.840] Now, actually, according to some measurements, for 13 months in the past 14 months, we have actually been over 1.5 degrees Celsius.
[00:14:04.840 --> 00:14:12.520] Like we are like August, we are living in a 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
[00:14:13.400 --> 00:14:17.760] You know, like that is, that is such a, that is such a bummer on Brat Summer.
[00:14:17.760 --> 00:14:18.720] You know?
[00:14:19.360 --> 00:14:21.600] We're all having a great Brat summer, Wendy.
[00:14:22.640 --> 00:14:32.240] Okay, okay, but the thing is that this idea that the climate of planet Earth will fall off a cliff once we pass 1.5 C, that is not right.
[00:14:32.240 --> 00:14:33.760] So here's Save up.
[00:14:33.760 --> 00:14:37.360] People think that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a tipping point for the Earth.
[00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:44.160] And people, for example, have this mistaken idea that, you know, we're down to like maybe like six or seven or eight years left to save the climate.
[00:14:44.160 --> 00:14:46.400] But that is absolutely wrong.
[00:14:46.720 --> 00:14:47.200] Okay.
[00:14:47.520 --> 00:14:55.120] And the even better news is that planet Earth is actually not the boat that's sinking.
[00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:58.480] Yeah, so the planet doesn't have a, you know, a tipping point.
[00:14:58.800 --> 00:15:12.320] Yeah, so this like neat, tidy, and devastating story that we think that like the world will hit this specific temperature, this doomsday clock moment where bam, the planet slides into irreversible climate chaos.
[00:15:12.320 --> 00:15:14.000] Like that is not right.
[00:15:14.000 --> 00:15:15.200] So what's the boat?
[00:15:15.520 --> 00:15:16.320] What's the boat?
[00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:20.240] The boat is stuff on planet Earth.
[00:15:20.240 --> 00:15:21.200] Big stuff.
[00:15:21.520 --> 00:15:25.600] So like the Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet.
[00:15:25.920 --> 00:15:34.800] So Antarctica actually has two different ice sheets, east and the west, and each of them are like their own boats.
[00:15:34.800 --> 00:15:38.960] So we think that they tip at different temperatures.
[00:15:38.960 --> 00:15:39.600] Right.
[00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:44.080] Other tipping points are like warm water coral reefs.
[00:15:44.080 --> 00:15:46.080] They've got their own tipping point.
[00:15:46.080 --> 00:15:52.080] The AMOC, which is like this huge current system, plays a very important role in weather patterns.
[00:15:52.080 --> 00:15:53.920] That's another thing that can tip.
[00:15:53.920 --> 00:15:57.440] So there's like all these different tipping points on planet Earth.
[00:15:57.440 --> 00:16:08.600] So, wait, what you're telling me is that each individual system, you know, getting into a death spiral loop will not necessarily end life as we know it on planet Earth.
[00:16:08.600 --> 00:16:09.160] Yes.
[00:16:09.160 --> 00:16:16.280] But all I envision now is this flotilla of sinking boats.
[00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:17.080] Yeah.
[00:16:17.080 --> 00:16:21.880] And that any one of them could go wrong because of our mistakes we're making.
[00:16:21.880 --> 00:16:27.000] But so now the question becomes: when are they going to sink?
[00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:27.560] Right?
[00:16:27.560 --> 00:16:27.880] Right.
[00:16:27.880 --> 00:16:30.280] Like, when are they going to start to tip?
[00:16:30.280 --> 00:16:35.240] And I want to zoom in on the ice sheets.
[00:16:35.880 --> 00:16:48.600] And these are these like huge chunks of ice, and basically crossing their tipping points would ultimately mean that they slide into a state where they melt and melt and melt until possibly they've completely melted.
[00:16:48.600 --> 00:16:53.560] And then if the Antarctic ice sheets melt and Greenland ice and they all melt.
[00:16:53.560 --> 00:16:54.040] Yeah.
[00:16:54.040 --> 00:16:54.680] What are we?
[00:16:54.680 --> 00:16:55.800] Is it Water World?
[00:16:56.200 --> 00:16:57.720] Is it Kevin Costner Water World?
[00:16:57.960 --> 00:17:02.840] So if we just lose, so Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are the ones that are on the table.
[00:17:02.840 --> 00:17:03.480] For now.
[00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:04.200] For now.
[00:17:04.520 --> 00:17:05.240] For now.
[00:17:05.560 --> 00:17:12.120] If we just lose Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it's 13 meters of sea level rise.
[00:17:12.120 --> 00:17:14.120] Good, that'll hang out my house.
[00:17:14.120 --> 00:17:17.080] Yeah, so 42 feet for our American audience.
[00:17:17.080 --> 00:17:24.440] Say goodbye to chunks of large chunks of New York, Miami, Shanghai, the Netherlands, a ton of Bangladesh.
[00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:33.400] Not only that, there are then fears that the fresh water that comes from all of that melts will then enter the oceans and muck up the currents.
[00:17:33.400 --> 00:17:38.840] And if you read the news, it sounds like we are on the brink of crossing those tipping points.
[00:17:38.840 --> 00:17:39.640] Oh, no.
[00:17:39.640 --> 00:17:41.240] But is that true?
[00:17:42.520 --> 00:17:44.960] Well, hopefully you'll tell me.
[00:17:44.120 --> 00:17:46.240] After the break.
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[00:20:41.960 --> 00:20:42.680] Welcome back.
[00:20:42.680 --> 00:20:45.880] Today on the show, we're looking at tipping points.
[00:20:45.880 --> 00:20:48.600] Next stop, the ice sheets.
[00:20:48.600 --> 00:20:52.040] So we're going to find out when will they tip.
[00:20:52.040 --> 00:20:54.280] And I'm here with comedian Michael Hing.
[00:20:54.280 --> 00:20:54.680] Hello.
[00:20:54.680 --> 00:20:55.880] Hey, Michael.
[00:20:55.880 --> 00:21:02.520] Can I ask, like, what is the actual process of an ice sheet uncontrollably melting?
[00:21:02.520 --> 00:21:03.880] Like, what happens?
[00:21:03.880 --> 00:21:05.240] It's like it starts to melt.
[00:21:05.240 --> 00:21:10.600] And then, what is it about the water and the temperature that means it's all over?
[00:21:10.600 --> 00:21:14.600] So, it's different for different ice sheets, but let's just do the Greenland ice sheet.
[00:21:14.600 --> 00:21:22.880] So, with the Greenland ice sheet, picture this like big dome of ice, but ice can behave like a fluid.
[00:21:22.880 --> 00:21:24.720] So, here's Dr.
[00:21:24.720 --> 00:21:26.720] Felicity McCormack again.
[00:21:27.040 --> 00:21:29.760] The ice sheet actually spreads under its own weight.
[00:21:29.760 --> 00:21:31.040] So, it's like honey, right?
[00:21:31.040 --> 00:21:34.800] As you warm it up, it kind of like spreads across a table.
[00:21:34.800 --> 00:21:42.640] So, if you imagine at the top of this ice dome, this honey ice dome, there's a couple of things going on.
[00:21:42.640 --> 00:21:47.040] So, the air at the top of this icy dome is colder than the air at the bottom.
[00:21:47.040 --> 00:21:47.600] Sure.
[00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:50.240] And because the higher you go, the colder it gets.
[00:21:50.240 --> 00:21:52.240] Like, if you climb a mountain, classic.
[00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:52.640] Classic.
[00:21:53.440 --> 00:21:55.120] Outside an aeroplane, very cold.
[00:21:55.120 --> 00:21:55.600] Very cold.
[00:21:55.600 --> 00:21:56.080] That's right.
[00:21:56.080 --> 00:21:57.760] The higher you get, the colder it gets.
[00:21:57.760 --> 00:22:03.920] And so, the idea is that as it melts from the top, it'll just shrink because it'll be like melting and melting and melting.
[00:22:03.920 --> 00:22:04.400] Yeah.
[00:22:04.400 --> 00:22:13.920] So, the worry is that as this ice sheet melts, it's getting shorter, further and further away from the cold air and into the warmer air.
[00:22:13.920 --> 00:22:14.400] Yep.
[00:22:14.400 --> 00:22:16.160] That's going to make it melt faster.
[00:22:16.160 --> 00:22:29.760] But then, not only that, what will happen is because now you're imagining the whole thing sort of moving from the bottom, it starts to stretch out and move out into the coastline.
[00:22:29.760 --> 00:22:36.000] Oh, and so then more portions of it will be like at sea level or whatever.
[00:22:36.000 --> 00:22:36.640] Yes.
[00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:37.760] Oh, no.
[00:22:38.720 --> 00:22:43.600] The thing about sea level is like the sea, that's liquid water.
[00:22:43.600 --> 00:22:44.560] That's liquid.
[00:22:44.560 --> 00:22:45.440] That's liquid.
[00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:45.840] That's right.
[00:22:45.840 --> 00:23:00.000] And so basically, what scientists are trying to work out when they work out the tipping point of Greenland is like the temperature that tips that whole process into self-perpetuating cascade.
[00:23:00.760 --> 00:23:02.040] Yeah, yeah.
[00:23:02.360 --> 00:23:09.560] So will you come on an adventure with me as we explore how scientists get to this point?
[00:23:09.560 --> 00:23:10.360] Yes.
[00:23:10.360 --> 00:23:17.400] Okay, so one thing you can do is look at satellite data and see how the ice has melted in response to climate change.
[00:23:17.400 --> 00:23:19.080] Sometimes you see those on the internet.
[00:23:19.080 --> 00:23:19.480] Yes.
[00:23:19.480 --> 00:23:20.600] And it's never good.
[00:23:20.600 --> 00:23:21.240] It's never good.
[00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:26.040] It's like, hey, here's a picture of like, you know, the world in 1963 or whatever.
[00:23:26.040 --> 00:23:28.360] And did you know most of the world was ice caps?
[00:23:29.000 --> 00:23:37.640] And then they compare it to like, they go, hey, and then last Tuesday we took this photo and it's like, oh, it actually turns out Santa lives in a desert.
[00:23:37.640 --> 00:23:39.240] It's the North Pole now.
[00:23:39.240 --> 00:23:40.120] It's just Santa.
[00:23:40.600 --> 00:23:42.520] No, obviously not that bad.
[00:23:42.520 --> 00:23:43.560] It's not that bad.
[00:23:43.560 --> 00:23:44.680] But we've been losing ice.
[00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:46.120] We've been losing ice.
[00:23:46.120 --> 00:23:49.880] Now from this, scientists could tell like, yeah, ice is sensitive.
[00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:50.520] This isn't good.
[00:23:50.520 --> 00:23:53.160] But it can't tell us if we're on a tipping point.
[00:23:53.160 --> 00:23:57.080] So to get to that, we have to go deep into our past.
[00:23:57.080 --> 00:24:02.680] And Michael, where we're going, we don't need roads.
[00:24:03.960 --> 00:24:04.760] So Dr.
[00:24:04.760 --> 00:24:14.440] Sarah Daz at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution flies off to this vast cold mountain of ice.
[00:24:14.440 --> 00:24:17.240] We're heading to the Greenland ice sheet.
[00:24:17.240 --> 00:24:21.240] You're flying to a place where no one's set foot ever before.
[00:24:21.240 --> 00:24:33.160] And as you fly up over the edge, you're just going over the most dynamic and colorful and exciting features that ice is like nothing else on the planet, really.
[00:24:33.160 --> 00:24:37.160] It's melting, it's breaking, it's, you know, it's like lava, but it's cold.
[00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:45.280] And then you fly up over these just bluest of blue lakes and these raging rivers and the whitest white snow.
[00:24:44.840 --> 00:24:46.960] Yeah, it's extraordinary.
[00:24:47.280 --> 00:24:56.640] Sarah is out here in this majestic landscape, and what she's doing is drilling what are called ice cores, which I thought sounded very romantic.
[00:24:58.480 --> 00:24:59.280] No, I don't know.
[00:24:59.280 --> 00:25:00.880] I don't even know.
[00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:01.920] What do you mean?
[00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:02.960] What do you mean?
[00:25:02.960 --> 00:25:05.120] Well, Sarah agrees with you.
[00:25:05.120 --> 00:25:08.160] It's not all romance.
[00:25:08.160 --> 00:25:21.760] When you're out there working night and day with your small team, sleeping in tents on the snow and melting snow for water and eating dehyde, like you're not always so enamored with the ice cores.
[00:25:21.760 --> 00:25:29.440] You're just trying to get the work done and you not get too much frostbite and not get the drill stuck.
[00:25:30.720 --> 00:25:33.440] What has happened in your love life, Wendy?
[00:25:33.440 --> 00:25:37.280] I remember drilling ice cores, going back in time.
[00:25:37.600 --> 00:25:39.760] Look, Sarah set me straight.
[00:25:39.760 --> 00:25:49.600] And so what she's doing is basically to paint a picture of this industrial work that she's doing is she's pulling out these like giant cylinders of ice.
[00:25:49.600 --> 00:25:53.600] You can sort of imagine coring like a giant cold apple.
[00:25:53.600 --> 00:25:59.440] And scientists like Sarah are drilling deep into the ice because the deeper you go, the older the ice is.
[00:25:59.440 --> 00:26:00.480] Yeah, I've heard about this.
[00:26:00.480 --> 00:26:04.240] And you can look at the different, I guess, layers of ice.
[00:26:04.240 --> 00:26:05.280] And then you go back and back.
[00:26:05.280 --> 00:26:09.680] And it's like, oh my goodness, did you know like 250 years ago, it was just pure water or whatever.
[00:26:09.840 --> 00:26:11.280] So it's not like 200 years.
[00:26:11.280 --> 00:26:14.240] So scientists can go back like hundreds of thousands of years.
[00:26:14.240 --> 00:26:14.960] Oh, wow.
[00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:17.920] There's ice cores that go back a million years, right?
[00:26:17.920 --> 00:26:20.400] So I call it like this magic time machine.
[00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:21.360] It's not magic, right?
[00:26:21.360 --> 00:26:25.520] I mean, science isn't magic, but there is something magical about what we've learned.
[00:26:25.520 --> 00:26:30.000] And so Sarah calls it a magic, not magic, science time machine.
[00:26:30.440 --> 00:26:37.960] Because in the Earth's lifetime, there were times when it was like way hotter than it is today and the ice sheets had completely melted.
[00:26:37.960 --> 00:26:40.120] There were other times it was much cooler.
[00:26:40.120 --> 00:26:49.240] And so scientists can analyze these ice cores like tree rings to see like what was going on with the ice sheets when the Earth was at different temperatures.
[00:26:49.560 --> 00:27:02.520] And Sarah could see when it came to Greenland that nearly 10,000 years ago, when the climate was only like a little bit warmer than it is now, that parts of the Greenland ice sheet had significantly shrunk.
[00:27:03.320 --> 00:27:10.040] So does that mean, so when someone like Sarah looks at this, they probably think that's where we're headed.
[00:27:10.040 --> 00:27:11.320] Yeah, it's a clue.
[00:27:11.320 --> 00:27:12.360] It's a clue.
[00:27:12.360 --> 00:27:13.960] And then, so there's other clues.
[00:27:13.960 --> 00:27:16.440] This is a really cool clue I want to tell you about.
[00:27:16.440 --> 00:27:22.600] So scientists, they'll drill down through the ice and then keep going until you get to the dirt below.
[00:27:22.600 --> 00:27:27.320] And that in Greenland, that dirt is at least 400,000 years old.
[00:27:27.640 --> 00:27:45.400] And what they can see in that, in that dirt, this was reported just this year, is they found like a poppy seed and an insect eye from an insect that presumably would have been flying around 400,000 years ago when there was no ice sheet.
[00:27:46.680 --> 00:27:49.960] Do you want to see a 400,000 year old insect eye?
[00:27:49.960 --> 00:27:50.920] Yeah, yeah.
[00:27:51.560 --> 00:27:52.520] Yeah, of course.
[00:27:52.520 --> 00:27:53.240] Here we go.
[00:27:54.040 --> 00:28:05.400] It's like kind of like a classic hexagonal kind of print that you would see in a fly's eye if you zoomed in, but a chunk of it is missing, which I guess after 400,000 years, you'd expect some deterioration.
[00:28:05.560 --> 00:28:07.320] I mean, it's pretty well preserved, right?
[00:28:07.280 --> 00:28:07.600] Yeah.
[00:28:07.640 --> 00:28:10.120] And they actually say in the paper that it's possibly a fly.
[00:28:10.120 --> 00:28:11.720] Hey, I know my insect eyes.
[00:28:12.280 --> 00:28:14.440] But an insect eye can only get you so far.
[00:28:14.440 --> 00:28:30.640] So, just quickly, to understand what tipping points are, scientists also use climate models, which you've probably heard of, but what they are are these like computer simulations, very detailed computer simulations of how we think these ginormous hunks of ice melt.
[00:28:30.640 --> 00:28:36.400] And basically, researchers will take them and then make the temperature go up and up and up and up.
[00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:40.960] And then they look to see like basically when the boat starts to sink.
[00:28:40.960 --> 00:28:41.920] Uh-huh.
[00:28:41.920 --> 00:28:44.720] And so you put it all together.
[00:28:44.720 --> 00:28:48.160] Thank you for coming on this long, crowded path journey with me.
[00:28:48.160 --> 00:28:48.800] Here we go.
[00:28:48.800 --> 00:28:49.440] Here we go.
[00:28:49.440 --> 00:28:49.920] Here we go.
[00:28:49.920 --> 00:28:50.400] Here we go.
[00:28:50.400 --> 00:28:50.880] Come on.
[00:28:50.880 --> 00:28:52.320] Okay, you put it all together.
[00:28:52.320 --> 00:28:53.280] You got the ice cores.
[00:28:53.280 --> 00:28:54.320] You got the satellite data.
[00:28:54.640 --> 00:28:56.560] You got the computer models.
[00:28:56.880 --> 00:28:57.840] What do we know?
[00:28:57.840 --> 00:29:00.560] When will the ice sheets tip?
[00:29:01.200 --> 00:29:06.240] So a recent study that got a lot of attention looked through a ton of studies and it estimated.
[00:29:06.240 --> 00:29:10.720] Now, you know, Michael, these scientists are trying their darndest here.
[00:29:10.880 --> 00:29:12.480] They are trying their darndest.
[00:29:12.480 --> 00:29:19.280] They have tried so hard to understand that temperature that's going to make the whole thing tip.
[00:29:19.280 --> 00:29:25.280] And remember, the stakes are: ice sheets melt, sea levels rise 13 meters.
[00:29:25.280 --> 00:29:25.920] That's right.
[00:29:25.920 --> 00:29:26.320] Okay.
[00:29:26.320 --> 00:29:27.200] That's right.
[00:29:27.200 --> 00:29:27.760] Okay.
[00:29:27.760 --> 00:29:28.640] That's right.
[00:29:28.640 --> 00:29:29.120] Okay.
[00:29:29.440 --> 00:29:33.200] But in this paper, they gave a range.
[00:29:33.520 --> 00:29:36.400] So, best case scenario, let's start with the best case scenario.
[00:29:36.720 --> 00:29:45.760] They said the tipping point of Greenland is the Greenland ice sheet is three degrees above pre-industrial levels.
[00:29:45.760 --> 00:29:46.240] Okay.
[00:29:46.240 --> 00:29:50.560] Which could be, under current projections, at the end of the century.
[00:29:50.560 --> 00:29:50.880] Okay.
[00:29:51.120 --> 00:29:52.240] 75 years away.
[00:29:52.240 --> 00:29:53.360] I'll be dead by then.
[00:29:53.600 --> 00:30:02.360] I mean, that's not, that's very selfish of me to say that, but that's that was an honest reaction in the moment, and that's all we need.
[00:30:02.360 --> 00:30:05.080] The West Antarctic ice sheet, by the way, roughly the same.
[00:30:05.080 --> 00:30:05.560] Okay.
[00:30:05.560 --> 00:30:05.720] Okay.
[00:29:59.840 --> 00:30:06.520] So that was best case scenario.
[00:30:06.680 --> 00:30:09.080] Worst case scenario, end of the century.
[00:30:09.720 --> 00:30:10.360] Okay.
[00:30:10.360 --> 00:30:21.400] Worst case scenario: Greenland ice sheet has a tipping point of just under one degree above pre-industrial levels.
[00:30:21.400 --> 00:30:24.840] Oh, so we've already tipped.
[00:30:24.840 --> 00:30:26.600] We're post-tip.
[00:30:26.600 --> 00:30:28.760] Post-tip.
[00:30:29.640 --> 00:30:31.880] West Antarctic ice sheet as well.
[00:30:32.200 --> 00:30:38.920] Yeah, well, I mean, seems this has put like this.
[00:30:38.920 --> 00:30:44.520] Now that I know that, a lot of the laughing and joking we did before will seem insensitive.
[00:30:44.520 --> 00:30:46.440] The apocalypse is upon us.
[00:30:46.440 --> 00:30:51.160] And like, well, I guess that leads.
[00:30:51.480 --> 00:30:52.040] We can't.
[00:30:52.120 --> 00:30:53.240] We're not going to end here.
[00:30:53.240 --> 00:30:54.760] We're not going to end here.
[00:30:54.760 --> 00:30:55.720] Because then the question is.
[00:30:56.520 --> 00:30:57.640] That should be the end of the episode.
[00:30:57.800 --> 00:30:57.960] No.
[00:30:58.120 --> 00:31:03.400] Just you and I in stunned silence, feeling incredibly helpless.
[00:31:04.040 --> 00:31:06.600] Is that how you're feeling in this moment?
[00:31:06.600 --> 00:31:11.640] I did not realize that there's a chance we would already pass the tipping point.
[00:31:11.640 --> 00:31:12.200] Yeah.
[00:31:12.200 --> 00:31:18.440] And if we have passed a point where any of us can do anything, I mean, you sort of retreat to nihilism, right?
[00:31:18.440 --> 00:31:19.640] It's like, well, what's the point?
[00:31:19.640 --> 00:31:20.920] Nothing matters.
[00:31:20.920 --> 00:31:26.040] You know, should I even be paying $8 to offset the plane ticket that I, you know?
[00:31:26.040 --> 00:31:26.360] Yeah.
[00:31:26.360 --> 00:31:28.280] Does any of it matter?
[00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:37.080] I mean, probably don't pay that eight dollars right what do you mean wait, do you mean because of tipping point or just in general?
[00:31:37.080 --> 00:31:39.080] I mean, surely they're a scare, right?
[00:31:39.080 --> 00:31:42.360] Well, I continue with your thought process.
[00:31:42.360 --> 00:33:21.560] That's for another episode so is there anything that can happen in the next whatever i don't know 50 years two years a hundred years is there anything we can do that could possibly help any of this yes yes yes yes the thing that i think tipping points um bring out in people is this sense of like we have lost control that boat is sinking after all this is an irreversible the state of that ice sheet has shifted and now it's gonna melt and melt and melt that knitting sheep it's doomed that's right that's right but but when i asked like every scientist i spoke to a lot of them and i was like so does this mean game over and they were all like no no no no no no no no no no it's not game over there's at no point do you stop fighting because even if we've crossed the tipping point of greenland or the west antarctic ice sheet and we might not have right we might not have a lot of scientists i spoke to thought maybe we still have time uh-huh but even if we have crossed them what we do now it could matter a lot so i talked about this with sarah and she said that there's this big misconception out there that once we cross a tipping point climate collapse happens right away i mean you think about hollywood movies and everything happens fast ice sheets melt your house is underwater by sunday like 20 years or so ago right that's you're probably familiar with this movie the day after tomorrow yes yes that was like a hollywoodization of you know the shutdown of the AMOC, everything flash freezing over.
[00:33:21.560 --> 00:33:22.680] I mean, it was crazy, right?
[00:33:23.160 --> 00:33:33.480] And then, and then again, we have the don't look up where it's like you have the don't look up the metaphor of climate change was an asteroid coming very much so, yeah, and like tipping points really fit into that, right?
[00:33:33.480 --> 00:33:36.600] But it's not an asteroid.
[00:33:36.600 --> 00:33:52.520] So, even if, worst-case scenario, we have crossed the tipping points of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, it would take probably more than a thousand years, maybe even 10,000 years for them to completely collapse.
[00:33:52.840 --> 00:33:57.720] So, you would not particularly worried about something that was 75 years away, right?
[00:33:58.040 --> 00:34:13.400] No, so what you're talking about there is completely liquid ice sheets, the 13 meters of sea level, yeah, that's 13 meters of sea level rise, yes, but but the seas don't have to rise 13 meters for our lives to be profoundly changed by the climate, right?
[00:34:13.720 --> 00:34:17.800] Right, yes, and as they melt, sea levels will rise.
[00:34:17.800 --> 00:34:26.440] But the fact that this is happening slowly is actually really important because it means that we have time to adapt.
[00:34:26.440 --> 00:34:32.040] People can move to higher ground, which is actually something that's already happening in the US.
[00:34:32.040 --> 00:34:39.160] They've moved like thousands of people to higher ground, like away from the like away from flood-prone areas.
[00:34:39.640 --> 00:34:42.440] And we can also build sea walls.
[00:34:42.440 --> 00:34:48.200] So, if we have you know hundreds, thousands of years, we can do something about it.
[00:34:48.200 --> 00:34:55.800] And not only that, we can actually get a handle on our emissions so we don't heat up the climate as fast as we have been.
[00:34:55.800 --> 00:35:02.200] And if we do that, we might also slow down how fast these ice sheets melt.
[00:35:02.200 --> 00:35:04.320] Um, I talked about this with Sarah.
[00:35:04.320 --> 00:35:10.160] Because if we keep heating up the world, these ice sheets will melt faster, we think.
[00:35:10.480 --> 00:35:12.320] Even once we've hit a tipping point.
[00:35:12.320 --> 00:35:12.800] Absolutely.
[00:35:12.800 --> 00:35:13.400] Absolutely.
[00:35:13.400 --> 00:35:27.600] That we know, even once we've hit a tipping point, even if Greenland reaches some point where it's just going to melt away, you know, if that could take 10,000 years versus 5,000 years, that gives us a lot more time to adapt and prepare.
[00:35:27.600 --> 00:35:29.760] You know, we can buy ourselves time.
[00:35:29.760 --> 00:35:34.080] So there's never a point at which we can be like, oops, all right, too late.
[00:35:34.080 --> 00:35:35.760] No need to do anything.
[00:35:35.760 --> 00:35:49.600] So I guess to all of this stuff about, you know, we have two years left to save the planet, or at the start of the show, how you said that you thought maybe tipping points meant that if we stopped all carbon emissions, it wouldn't matter.
[00:35:49.600 --> 00:35:51.360] The catastrophe is already here.
[00:35:51.360 --> 00:35:57.040] I mean, the truth is that it still does matter our carbon emissions.
[00:35:58.480 --> 00:36:02.640] There really isn't a planetary cutoff.
[00:36:02.640 --> 00:36:03.840] And so here's Dr.
[00:36:03.840 --> 00:36:04.960] Seva Wang.
[00:36:05.280 --> 00:36:14.400] There is no tipping point beyond which Mother Earth wrestles control of the whole climate system away from human beings and proceeds to punish us for our sins.
[00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:17.760] From a scientific perspective, that's just not how it works.
[00:36:17.760 --> 00:36:24.080] And so what I tell people is humans have their hand on the thermostat and that's that's not going to change.
[00:36:24.400 --> 00:36:40.320] And so with our hand on that dial, at least in control of how much hotter it's going to get, what it all really means is just forget this idea of runaway climate change.
[00:36:41.520 --> 00:36:51.200] It's more like the more emissions that we put into the atmosphere, the worse this gets, and the less emissions, the better it gets.
[00:36:51.200 --> 00:36:51.680] Yeah.
[00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:55.120] And I know you know this, but that is true.
[00:36:55.120 --> 00:36:55.760] That is true.
[00:36:55.760 --> 00:37:04.040] Like tipping points, whether we hit tipping points or whether we don't, climate change is here now.
[00:37:04.360 --> 00:37:06.200] Here's Sarah on this.
[00:37:06.520 --> 00:37:10.200] You don't need tipping points to scare me.
[00:37:10.520 --> 00:37:18.440] You can take them off the table, and the sea surface temperatures are warming off the charts, heat waves killing thousands of people.
[00:37:18.440 --> 00:37:20.120] We have coral reefs dying.
[00:37:20.120 --> 00:37:21.400] We have glaciers melting.
[00:37:21.400 --> 00:37:22.520] Never mind tipping points.
[00:37:22.520 --> 00:37:28.040] We have sea level rising, flooding all over the place, you know, rise of diseases.
[00:37:28.040 --> 00:37:29.720] I mean, all sorts of effects.
[00:37:30.200 --> 00:37:31.000] Fires, right?
[00:37:31.000 --> 00:37:31.480] You name it.
[00:37:31.480 --> 00:37:39.480] You wake up any given day and open the newspaper, no matter where you are in the world, and you can see an example of a climate change impact.
[00:37:40.840 --> 00:37:41.480] Yeah.
[00:37:41.480 --> 00:38:01.880] And maybe, maybe just to cap us off here, like given all of this, these terrible things that are happening to the planet right now because of climate change, I've actually, I've kind of started to think about tipping points a bit like that distracted boyfriend meme.
[00:38:01.880 --> 00:38:03.480] Oh, and the guy's looking over his shoulder.
[00:38:03.480 --> 00:38:07.800] Yeah, and everyone's like looking at the tipping points and being like, when are they going to come?
[00:38:07.800 --> 00:38:13.320] And then like the girlfriend in the back is like, I'm climate change and I'm right here.
[00:38:13.640 --> 00:38:15.640] Look at me now.
[00:38:15.960 --> 00:38:18.840] I am making your lives bad right now.
[00:38:19.960 --> 00:38:26.600] When did Sites Versus become a podcast that describes like memes from like eight years ago?
[00:38:27.640 --> 00:38:29.000] It was a big one.
[00:38:29.000 --> 00:38:29.480] Oh no.
[00:38:29.480 --> 00:38:31.560] Look, hey, everyone knows what you're talking about.
[00:38:31.520 --> 00:38:35.640] And it's, to be clear, it was a very effective communication tool.
[00:38:36.760 --> 00:38:37.640] Well, good.
[00:38:37.640 --> 00:38:38.760] Thank you.
[00:38:38.760 --> 00:38:43.080] And I know this has been a little bit depressing this whole episode.
[00:38:43.080 --> 00:38:44.040] I know.
[00:38:44.040 --> 00:38:52.800] But I do want to say that there is some good news when it comes to how we are solving this, how we are getting off fossil fuels.
[00:38:52.800 --> 00:38:58.880] I mean, because I had thought we were really just like twiddling our thumbs while Rome burns.
[00:38:59.200 --> 00:39:02.320] But I think there is some little bit of hope.
[00:39:02.320 --> 00:39:05.600] There is some exciting stuff happening with renewables.
[00:39:05.920 --> 00:39:07.280] There is some good news.
[00:39:07.280 --> 00:39:08.160] Here we go.
[00:39:08.160 --> 00:39:11.280] But we're going to save it for a different episode.
[00:39:11.280 --> 00:39:12.560] Oh, that I'm not on?
[00:39:12.720 --> 00:39:13.120] Great.
[00:39:13.120 --> 00:39:13.600] Okay.
[00:39:13.600 --> 00:39:14.400] Thanks, Wendy.
[00:39:14.400 --> 00:39:14.960] Thank you.
[00:39:14.960 --> 00:39:20.880] What we're going to do for our how to stop the climate crisis episode is it's going to be a QA.
[00:39:20.880 --> 00:39:30.640] So we're getting listener questions, which could include, should you, your question number one, should you get the $8 carbon offset?
[00:39:30.640 --> 00:39:36.160] So we've got a panel of experts to talk about renewables, how we get to net zero, questions.
[00:39:36.160 --> 00:39:40.480] If you've got questions about can we actually solve this?
[00:39:40.480 --> 00:39:48.640] You know, that's, I'm actually going to have to listen to that episode then, because if you've listened to this one and you're thinking to yourself, oh my goodness, it's all completely screwed.
[00:39:48.640 --> 00:39:54.400] And you're feeling like I am right now, which is exhausted and a little bit betrayed by your friend Wendy.
[00:39:54.400 --> 00:40:03.200] Frankly, then really the only remedy to that is listening to the next episode where, I mean, frankly, Wendy, you've got some work to do.
[00:40:03.200 --> 00:40:03.760] That's yes.
[00:40:04.080 --> 00:40:05.360] To regain my trust.
[00:40:05.360 --> 00:40:05.760] Yes.
[00:40:05.760 --> 00:40:11.040] So if you have any questions, then you can go to our Instagram sites underscore VS.
[00:40:11.040 --> 00:40:21.040] You could ask me on my TikTok at WendyZuckerman, or you can send us a video or voicemail to our wonderful senior producer, Meryl.
[00:40:21.040 --> 00:40:25.520] Her email is merylh at spotify.com.
[00:40:25.520 --> 00:40:27.520] If you're in the US, there's a number to call.
[00:40:27.520 --> 00:40:29.440] We're going to put all of this in the show notes.
[00:40:29.440 --> 00:40:32.520] Really, I'm really excited to know what your questions are.
[00:40:32.520 --> 00:40:35.000] Well, thank you so much for having me, Wendy.
[00:40:29.840 --> 00:40:36.280] It's been a real pleasure.
[00:40:36.600 --> 00:40:38.120] Thanks for coming, Michael.
[00:40:38.120 --> 00:40:39.960] See you again soon.
[00:40:45.960 --> 00:40:49.880] This episode has 107 citations in it.
[00:40:49.880 --> 00:40:55.080] So if you want to read more about tipping points, just go to our show notes and there's a link to our transcript.
[00:40:55.080 --> 00:41:03.640] And while you're looking at the show notes, you can see all of the ways to contact us if you've got questions about renewables and solving this climate crisis.
[00:41:03.640 --> 00:41:08.760] If you want to hear more from Veichel, he has not one but two podcasts.
[00:41:08.760 --> 00:41:15.560] There's Free to a Good Home and his long-running Dungeons and Dragons podcast, which is called Dragon Friends.
[00:41:15.560 --> 00:41:21.800] This episode was produced by me, Wendy Zuckerman, with help from Meryl Horn, Rose Rimler, Aketti Foster Keys, and Michelle Dang.
[00:41:21.800 --> 00:41:23.320] We're edited by Blythe Terrell.
[00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:25.000] Fact-checking by Diane Kelly.
[00:41:25.000 --> 00:41:27.160] Mix and sound design by Sam Baer.
[00:41:27.160 --> 00:41:30.840] Music written by Bobby Lord, Bumi Hidaka, and So Wiley.
[00:41:30.840 --> 00:41:33.480] Thanks to all of the researchers that I spoke to.
[00:41:33.480 --> 00:41:35.800] Oh my gosh, thank you so much.
[00:41:35.800 --> 00:41:40.840] I spoke to so many climate scientists and this is just a handful of them.
[00:41:40.840 --> 00:41:44.040] Professor Andrew Dessler, Professor Christina Hulbe, Dr.
[00:41:44.040 --> 00:41:48.440] David Armstrong McKay, Professor Tim Lenton, Aditya Lola, Dr.
[00:41:48.440 --> 00:41:49.880] Elizabeth Maroon, Dr.
[00:41:49.880 --> 00:41:52.920] Yan Nitzpin, Professor Johannes Kwass, Dr.
[00:41:52.920 --> 00:41:54.360] Jonathan Leung, Dr.
[00:41:54.360 --> 00:41:55.720] Kirsten Schell, Dr.
[00:41:55.720 --> 00:41:58.520] Maddie Rosevar, Michelle Dvorak, Dr.
[00:41:58.520 --> 00:41:59.800] Robin Lambaugh, Dr.
[00:41:59.800 --> 00:42:01.240] Zeke Housefather, Dr.
[00:42:01.240 --> 00:42:04.440] Sam Kreva, Flower Zhang, and others.
[00:42:04.440 --> 00:42:07.800] And extra thanks to the Zuckerman family and Joseph Lavelle Wilson.
[00:42:07.800 --> 00:42:10.360] Science Versus is a Spotify Studios original.
[00:42:10.360 --> 00:42:14.880] Listen to us for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
[00:42:14.520 --> 00:42:16.400] We are everywhere.
[00:42:16.720 --> 00:42:24.400] If you are listening on Spotify, then follow us and tap the bell icon, and then you'll get notifications when new episodes arrive.
[00:42:24.400 --> 00:42:25.760] I'm Wendy Zuckerman.
[00:42:25.760 --> 00:42:27.280] Back to you next time.
[00:42:35.280 --> 00:42:37.360] Hello, this is Michael.
[00:42:37.840 --> 00:42:44.160] At one point, Wendy's editors thought that it sounded like I was genuinely mad at Wendy.
[00:42:44.160 --> 00:42:49.360] So I guess this is just like a voice message from me after the fact saying that I wasn't mad at Wendy.
[00:42:49.360 --> 00:42:53.680] We're friends and we've known each other for a very long time and I was just joking around.
[00:42:54.000 --> 00:42:58.480] So I wasn't mad at Wendy, is what I'm telling you.
[00:43:02.000 --> 00:43:04.240] I can almost hear my mom in the background.
[00:43:04.240 --> 00:43:05.360] Good.
[00:43:06.800 --> 00:43:08.000] Now, can I go now?
[00:43:08.000 --> 00:43:09.200] Is that okay?
[00:43:15.840 --> 00:43:17.040] Listen.
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