The Economics of Everyday Things

13. Carnival Games

February 12, 2026

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  • Carnival games are intentionally designed with custom specifications, such as smaller basketball rims, to ensure the odds heavily favor the operator, a concept known as 'throwing stock' rather than focusing on player odds. 
  • The carnival game supply industry, exemplified by Redbone Products, is a tight-knit, often multi-generational business where revenue heavily relies on the constant replacement of consumable parts like balloons. 
  • While most games are designed to be winnable according to state regulations, some unscrupulous operators ('sharpies') employ 'gaffed' tactics or strict prize payout rules to maximize profit, though legitimate operators aim to avoid these practices to protect the carnival's reputation. 

Segments

Carnival Game Industry Suppliers
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(00:02:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Redbone Products supplies games and parts globally, with major revenue coming from frequently replaced items like balloons.
  • Summary: Redbone Products, located in Pacific, Missouri, manufactures carnival games and components used worldwide. The company generates most of its revenue from selling replacement parts such as balloons, balls, and ducks, which are constantly lost or soiled. Game components, like the glass bottles in Ring Toss, are manufactured to specific, non-regulation dimensions to ensure operator profitability.
Game Design and Odds
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(00:05:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Basketball rims are deliberately smaller than regulation size to reduce the probability of a successful shot.
  • Summary: The design process for carnival games focuses on engineering the odds to favor the operator. For example, regulation basketball rims are 18 inches, but carnival rims are often compressed to 13, 15, or even 10.5 inches to make winning difficult. These custom-designed games can cost carnival operators between $3,000 and $30,000 each.
Observing Game Play and Odds
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(00:06:26)
  • Key Takeaway: Carnival workers measure success by ’throwing stock’ (payout ratio) rather than by the player’s stated odds of winning.
  • Summary: Retired journalist Matthew Griisen studied carnival games, finding that a basketball game yielded a win rate of only one in 40 shots, while Ring Toss was closer to one in 700. Carnival workers focus on ’throwing stock,’ which is the ratio of prize payout to money taken in, adjusting game mechanics if this ratio gets too high. Skilled players who understand the tricks are sometimes banned or restricted by ‘one prize per day’ rules.
Operator Profitability and Rigging
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(00:12:05)
  • Key Takeaway: Game operators face high fixed costs, including daily midway rent, necessitating strict control over prize payouts.
  • Summary: Game operators must cover high costs like $1,500 daily rent, labor, and prize inventory, leading to tight margins. Workers receive strict instructions to limit the number and size of prizes given away, sometimes leading to outright rigging, such as hammering a milk toss rim to make it ‘wonky.’ Despite these practices, many operators are small business owners who adhere to state rules ensuring games are technically winnable.
The Psychology of Playing
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(00:17:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The motivation to play often stems from the desire for a trophy to impress a date, rather than the intrinsic value of the prize.
  • Summary: The primary reason people spend money on games is the perceived value of the prize as a trophy, especially for impressing a date. One documented case involved a man spending his entire $2,600 life savings attempting to win a softball toss game. Games where players always win, called ‘hanky pinks,’ are geared toward young children, but the prizes are typically worth less than 20% of the play cost.