Science Friday

What A Snow Drought In The West Means For The Rest Of 2026

February 19, 2026

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  • The current Western US snow drought, particularly in Colorado and Utah, is causing significant public concern because 95% of Utah's water supply relies on snowmelt, threatening reservoirs like Lake Powell. 
  • The long-term drying trend in the American West should be termed "aridification" rather than temporary "drought," driven by human-caused warming (5°F warmer than normal since October) and uncertain precipitation declines. 
  • Addressing the Colorado River crisis, which requires potential cuts of 20% to 40% of river use, will necessitate fundamental and painful changes in agriculture, which accounts for about 70% of water use in the basin. 

Segments

Sponsors and Introduction
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: The segment begins with sponsor messages before introducing the topic of the Western snow drought.
  • Summary: The first few minutes feature advertisements for Odoo, Chase Sapphire Reserve, and Venmo debit cards, followed by the host Flora Linkman introducing the topic of the snow drought in the West (00:01:35).
Utah’s Snow Drought Concern
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(00:01:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The lack of snowpack in Colorado and Utah is causing significant public concern beyond just winter sports.
  • Summary: Flora Linkman and guest David Condos discuss how the snow drought is affecting Utah, a state that prides itself on snow. Condos confirms residents are worried, noting the visible lack of snow is a constant reminder of the situation (00:02:44).
Snowpack and Water Supply
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(00:03:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Utah relies on snowmelt for 95% of its water supply, making the snow drought an existential water crisis.
  • Summary: Condos explains that the primary concern is water supply, as 95% of Utah’s water comes from melting snow, which refills reservoirs like Lake Powell. Low snowpack threatens water for tens of millions downstream (00:04:01).
Aridification vs. Temporary Drought
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(00:08:16)
  • Key Takeaway: The long-term trend is ‘aridification’—permanent warming and drying—rather than temporary drought, driven by human-caused climate change.
  • Summary: Brad Udall joins and clarifies that the situation is grim, potentially nearing record lows. He introduces the term ‘aridification’ to describe the long-term warming trend (up nearly 3°F since 1970 in the basin) which causes less snow and more evaporation (00:09:52).
Colorado River Cutbacks Needed
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(00:12:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Negotiations require massive water use reductions (20% to 40%) because reservoirs are critically low, but progress is stalled.
  • Summary: Udall details that Lake Powell and Mead have lost 70% of their supply since 2000. The required cuts are substantial, affecting all users, and the urgency is high as reservoir rules expire (00:12:56).
Impact on Western Agriculture
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(00:14:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Agriculture, which uses 70% of the water, must take the largest share of cuts, leading to painful, fundamental changes in farming.
  • Summary: The necessary cuts mean agriculture must drastically reduce use. Udall suggests some farming in Arizona may cease entirely, and others will need to change crops or growing seasons (00:15:29).
Municipal Efficiency vs. Ag Use
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(00:17:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Municipalities have become highly efficient, meaning the bulk of future cuts must come from agriculture, despite efficiency complexities.
  • Summary: Udall notes that cities like Las Vegas have drastically cut water use per person over decades. He also points out that efficiency measures in agriculture can sometimes paradoxically increase overall water use due to return flows (00:17:52).
Forced Solutions and Adaptation
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(00:18:55)
  • Key Takeaway: If negotiations fail, the federal government will impose a solution, leading to litigation, but adaptation is now unavoidable.
  • Summary: Udall predicts federal imposition if states don’t agree, noting courts are ill-equipped for this complex problem. He stresses that while reducing greenhouse gases is vital long-term, the West is now firmly in an adaptation phase regarding the Colorado River hole they have dug (00:20:51).