Planet Money

Planet Money vs. the NBA’s tanking problem

March 6, 2026

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  • The core problem of NBA tanking stems from the incentive structure of the draft, where intentionally losing games is a rational strategy for teams seeking top draft picks. 
  • Three proposed solutions to eradicate tanking are the 'draft wheel' (breaking the link between record and pick), the 'Gold Plan' (incentivizing post-elimination winning), and eliminating the draft entirely (as seen in the NWSL). 
  • The NBA's current draft lottery system, implemented after the 1984 Rockets tanking incident, attempts to discourage extreme losing but has created a trade-off where genuinely bad teams struggle to improve quickly. 

Segments

Defining the Tanking Problem
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(00:00:25)
  • Key Takeaway: NBA teams are incentivized to lose games late in the season to secure better odds for a top pick in the subsequent NBA draft.
  • Summary: Fans of struggling NBA teams often find themselves rooting against their own teams during the end of the season. This behavior, known as tanking, is driven by the league’s structure which rewards the worst-performing teams with the best chances at securing a high draft pick. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has publicly acknowledged the issue, stating the league is considering remedies to align incentives.
History of Draft Incentives
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(00:06:15)
  • Key Takeaway: The introduction of the NBA draft lottery in 1985 was a direct response to the 1984 Houston Rockets intentionally losing games to secure Hakeem Olajuwon.
  • Summary: Initially, the NBA draft used a reverse order system where the worst teams picked first, leading to blatant tanking exemplified by the 1984 Rockets. To combat this, the league instituted a lottery, adding randomness so that finishing last did not guarantee the number one pick. Subsequent rule changes, including weighting odds and later flattening them in 2019, have continuously attempted to balance discouraging tanking while still offering hope to bad teams.
Proposal One: The Draft Wheel
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(00:12:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The ‘draft wheel’ proposal seeks to eradicate tanking by completely severing the connection between a team’s season record and its draft position over a 30-year cycle.
  • Summary: The draft wheel assigns each of the 30 teams a spoke position that cycles predetermined, seemingly random picks over 30 years, ensuring no single year’s record dictates the pick. This system guarantees every team receives a top-six pick every five years, maintaining hope. However, small-market teams resisted because it removes the immediate reward for being bad and could trap perpetually struggling teams in mediocrity for longer periods.
Proposal Two: The Gold Plan
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(00:16:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The ‘Gold Plan,’ adopted by the PWHL, incentivizes teams eliminated from playoff contention to win games, as the team with the most points post-elimination receives the top draft pick.
  • Summary: Hockey Hall of Famer Jayna Hefford explained that the Gold Plan flips the incentive: winning games after elimination earns a better draft slot, creating exciting late-season competition between eliminated teams. While this discourages early tanking, the high financial stakes in the NBA might still lead cynical front offices to tank at the start of the season before flipping the switch post-elimination.
Proposal Three: Eliminating the Draft
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(00:23:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The NWSL eliminated its draft entirely, forcing teams to compete for young talent through direct negotiation, which emphasizes club environment and facilities over draft luck.
  • Summary: World Cup Champion Sam Mewis detailed how the NWSL’s move to a free-agency style system for new players removes all incentive to tank, as draft position is irrelevant. Teams must instead compete on the quality of their coaching, facilities, and culture to attract desired players. A potential downside is that wealthier, more committed owners might consistently secure the best talent, potentially increasing disparity between large and small markets.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
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(00:28:59)
  • Key Takeaway: NBA expert Zach Lowe believes significant change to the tanking incentives is ‘100% coming’ due to public outcry and league acknowledgment, though abolishing the draft entirely is unlikely in the near term.
  • Summary: The challenge in reforming the NBA draft lies in balancing the needs of the league, teams, players, and fans, as every solution involves trade-offs. While the NBA confirmed the issue is on the Board of Governors’ agenda, Lowe suggests incremental changes rather than radical overhauls like abolishing the draft. He is personally leaning toward systems that ensure every team must try to compete every year.