Planet Money

After the shutdown, SNAP will still be in trouble

November 1, 2025

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  • A recent tax-cut and spending bill shifts the cost of SNAP benefits from being entirely federal to requiring states to contribute based on their Payment Error Rate. 
  • Oregon's SNAP program faces a potential $250 million annual cost if they cannot reduce their Payment Error Rate below 6%, placing significant pressure on local administrators like Nate Singer. 
  • The tension in managing the error rate lies between the need for bureaucratic accuracy (which reduces federal penalties) and the need to keep the application process accessible to eligible recipients. 

Segments

SNAP Cost Shift Revealed
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(00:00:19)
  • Key Takeaway: A new federal bill mandates that states begin paying a portion of SNAP benefit costs, a significant departure from historical federal funding.
  • Summary: The federal government will no longer cover 100% of SNAP benefits; states must now contribute financially. The amount states owe is tied to their Payment Error Rate (PER), the official measure of accuracy in benefit distribution. Oregon’s PER, currently 14%, must drop below 6% to avoid a $250 million annual state liability.
Recipient Experience and Errors
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(00:08:40)
  • Key Takeaway: SNAP benefit errors often stem from honest mistakes by applicants misunderstanding complex income questions, such as confusing gross versus net pay.
  • Summary: Vicki Aguilar, a SNAP recipient, illustrated how confusion over reading a pay stub (reading net instead of gross pay) can introduce an error. Errors are introduced when interviewers miss questions, applicants answer inaccurately, or typos occur during data entry. While fraud exists, the majority of the error rate comes from these inadvertent mistakes.
Bureaucracy Tackles Error Rate
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(00:14:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Eligibility workers use checklists, system nudges, and an AI tool named ‘Ellie’ to ensure comprehensive questioning and reduce errors.
  • Summary: Eligibility workers like Bridget Faust are trained to be more analytical rather than just data entry clerks, using checklists to cover all required questions. Nate Singer’s team developed ‘EligibilityBot’ (Ellie) to provide quick access to updated guidance following policy changes like the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act.’ Despite these tools, policy updates frequently cause the error rate to increase.
Auditing and Tension in Administration
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(00:18:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Auditors must leave no stone unturned to calculate the true error rate, creating a tension between thoroughness and making the initial application process accessible.
  • Summary: Auditors like Shelly Wickersham must re-perform the entire eligibility interview, asking exhaustive questions about hidden income (like recycling money) and demanding documentation. States that enforce stricter documentation requirements to lower their error rates often see lower overall participation rates. Oregon is currently balancing the need to reduce its 14% error rate against the risk of deterring eligible applicants.
Governor’s Response to Funding Threat
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(00:26:34)
  • Key Takeaway: Governor Tina Kotek argues that tying state funding to the error rate is illegitimate because the federal program rules are inherently complex and administration funding was simultaneously cut.
  • Summary: Governor Kotek stated that if Oregon fails to meet the error rate goal, the state faces cutting the program or shrinking eligibility, which she currently opposes. She contends that the federal government should simplify the program if it expects lower error rates to be achievable without excessive bureaucracy. The new law also halved the federal funding provided to states specifically for running their food stamp programs.
Shutdown Impact and Recipient Concern
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(00:30:08)
  • Key Takeaway: Despite the immediate crisis of the government shutdown suspending SNAP funds, recipients like Vicki Aguilar expressed greater immediate concern for others than for their own personal financial stability.
  • Summary: Vicki Aguilar, interviewed after the shutdown news, was primarily worried about other SNAP recipients who rely on the benefits. She stated she would personally be okay, relying on simple meals like cereal and eggs while continuing her job search. The episode notes that some states are considering shuttering the SNAP program entirely due to the new cost-sharing mandate.