The Jordan Harbinger Show

1297: Iran | Out of the Loop

March 15, 2026

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  • The Iranian regime violently suppresses internal dissent, using tactics like shooting protesters with birdshot and subsequently arresting them at hospitals. 
  • Iran's geopolitical power projection relies heavily on funding and training a network of proxy militias (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) because it lacks the capacity for direct military power projection. 
  • Iran possesses two distinct military organizations, the regular army (Artesh) and the ideologically driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with the latter also functioning as a massive for-profit entity controlling significant sectors of the economy. 
  • The utility of intelligence shared between allies like Russia and Iran is highly dependent on the speed of the recipient's OODA loop and the destruction of their command and control systems. 
  • Cyberattacks, including hacking religious apps and state media, are a significant, non-kinetic weapon being used to disrupt the Iranian regime and encourage defections among IRGC personnel. 
  • A collapse of the Iranian regime is unlikely to result in a Libya-style civil war due to the strong, unified national identity of the Iranian people, suggesting a likely outcome of either regime entrenchment or military takeover followed by elections. 

Segments

Protest Violence and IRGC Tactics
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(00:05:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Iranian security forces are using birdshot to pepper protesters in the face and torso, leading to arrests upon seeking hospital treatment.
  • Summary: Protesters injured by birdshot are often arrested immediately upon seeking medical care at hospitals, where IRGC agents monitor treatment. Birdshot consists of small steel pellets designed for hunting birds, capable of severely injuring human tissue, including eyes and torsos. Some reports indicate agents are now directly targeting and finishing off severely injured protesters in emergency rooms.
Iran’s Multi-Faceted History
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(00:09:21)
  • Key Takeaway: Iranian history is best understood in four phases: ancient civilization, the 1979 revolutionary regime, the regional proxy empire, and modern missile warfare.
  • Summary: Iran is an ancient civilization, older than China, with a history dating back 5,000 years, exemplified by Cyrus the Great’s Achaemenid Empire. The country was known as Persia until 1935, and its current theocratic structure is a relatively new development compared to its long history. The modern geopolitical issues stem from the 1979 revolution, the subsequent proxy empire building, and current missile/cyber capabilities.
Shah Era Modernization and Coup
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(00:14:53)
  • Key Takeaway: The Shah’s modernization efforts in the 1960s, including women’s suffrage, were undermined by the US/UK-backed 1953 coup and the creation of the repressive SAVAK secret police.
  • Summary: Iran’s modernization accelerated in the 1960s, but the Shah’s power was solidified after the US and UK backed a 1953 coup against Prime Minister Mossadegh, who had nationalized oil fields. The Shah attempted to weaken religious power through reforms like granting women the right to vote, but this was enforced by the feared secret police organization, SAVAK. This created resentment between the secularizing urban elite and more religious or provincial populations.
1979 Embassy Seizure Fallout
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(00:19:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The 444-day hostage crisis following the 1979 US Embassy takeover cemented US-Iran enmity and spurred Iran to establish a global proxy network to project power.
  • Summary: The seizure of 52 American hostages for 444 days was a major international incident that severely damaged US prestige and remains a source of lasting antagonism. Following the revolution, Iran began supporting Shia groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and later Sunni groups like Hamas, using these militias for power projection where direct military action was impossible. This proxy strategy was evident in the funding of groups like Islamic Jihad and the Houthis.
Differentiating Iranian Military Bodies
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(00:23:03)
  • Key Takeaway: The IRGC acts as the state’s religious army, training proxies and running businesses, while the Artesh is the larger, less funded, conscript army of the people.
  • Summary: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the religious army protecting the state, funded with billions annually, and is responsible for training foreign proxies in tactics like IED construction and missile launching. The IRGC also operates as a major for-profit entity, often underbidding civilian businesses, which exacerbates economic issues. The Artesh is the larger, conventional army funded with less money, where most Iranian males serve their mandatory two-year conscription term.
Iran-Iraq War and Proxy Conflict Rationale
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(00:38:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in the 1980s fearing the spread of the Shia revolution, leading to an eight-year, WWI-style conflict with massive casualties.
  • Summary: Saddam Hussein invaded Iran partly out of fear that the 1979 revolution would destabilize Iraq’s ruling Sunni minority over its Shia majority. The resulting conflict involved trench warfare, poison gas, and massive casualties, ultimately ending with no border changes. Iran uses proxies like Hamas and the Houthis to achieve regional goals cheaply while maintaining plausible deniability for acts of terror or destabilization.
Nuclear Program Status and Attack Rationale
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(00:43:50)
  • Key Takeaway: The debate over attacking Iran centers on whether they were genuinely close to achieving nuclear bomb material or if the political weakness caused by internal protests created a window of opportunity for military action.
  • Summary: Iran claimed to possess enough material for 11 nuclear bombs, requiring only 10 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium to reach critical mass for a weapon. The decision to attack may be driven by the desire to eliminate missile delivery capabilities if the fissile material cannot be destroyed. Alternatively, the current administration might be exploiting Iran’s internal instability, such as the massive water shortage in Tehran, to strike while the regime is politically weak.
Intelligence Sharing and OODA Loop
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(00:54:33)
  • Key Takeaway: The effectiveness of Russian intelligence support to Iran is severely limited if US strikes have degraded Iran’s command and control systems, rendering targeting data useless.
  • Summary: If the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) for missile firing is too long, intelligence about a moving target like a carrier becomes obsolete quickly. The utility of intelligence is questioned if the recipient cannot act on it fast enough. Pre-planned ’letters of last resort’ exist for commanders to fire missiles if communication is lost.
Satellite Support and Cyber Warfare
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(00:57:06)
  • Key Takeaway: China is likely redirecting satellites not just to help Iran, but primarily to observe and learn from US operational methods for future conflicts involving their own navy.
  • Summary: Russia is unlikely to spend fuel redirecting satellites due to the war in Ukraine, but may pass along incidental imagery. China, however, is expected to use the situation to study US performance in finding carriers quickly. Cyberattacks have been a major factor, exemplified by hacking Iranian TV and a prayer app to spread defection messages to the IRGC.
JADO Doctrine and Strike Prioritization
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(01:00:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Modern US warfare doctrine, JADO (Joint All-Domain Operations), emphasizes ‘any sensor, any decider, any shooter’ to create a constant, unpredictable threat environment, replacing phased attacks.
  • Summary: JADO allows assets like satellites to cue diverse platforms (like an AWACS plane telling a HIMARS launcher) to strike emergent targets, creating ‘1,000 tornadoes the first night.’ The ideal military strike sequence targets air defense first, followed by command and control, then sensors, and finally airbases by destroying aircraft in shelters rather than runways.
Post-Regime Collapse Scenarios
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(01:01:32)
  • Key Takeaway: The ideal outcome for the US following regime weakening is the Artesh (regular army) taking over and purging the government, avoiding the appearance of an externally imposed leader.
  • Summary: Direct US ground invasion is not seen as advantageous; the preferred scenario involves internal military action leading to a new government. Any leader arriving on a C-17 flanked by Marines would be mistrusted by Iranians. Iran’s current democracy is heavily restricted by a council that vets all candidates, ensuring only conservative clerics appear on the ballot.
Interceptor Use and Missile Sustainability
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(01:06:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Concerns about running out of expensive interceptors against cheap drones are mitigated by strategic planning, alternative weapons like laser-guided rockets, and the necessity of targeting the missile launchers (’the archer’) rather than just the incoming missiles (’the arrow’).
  • Summary: Air defense systems primarily buy time to destroy the actual missile launchers. The 90% reduction in Iranian firing could be due to missile depletion, successful targeting of underground launchers, or logistical failures like lack of fuel for launchers or maintenance parts.
Sleeper Cells and AI Misinformation Threat
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(01:10:09)
  • Key Takeaway: While the possibility of activated sleeper cells using cheap drones exists, the greater immediate threat is the rapid proliferation of realistic AI-generated misinformation designed to sow chaos and manipulate content creators.
  • Summary: Iranian sleeper cells are a non-zero risk, potentially using tactics pioneered by Ukraine with cheap drones launched from inconspicuous locations. AI war footage is becoming indistinguishable from reality, allowing malicious actors to generate convincing propaganda, as demonstrated by Jill Stein sharing a fake image of captured US special forces.
Ross Perot’s Iran Rescue Story
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(01:18:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Ross Perot successfully orchestrated the extraction of his company’s employees from an Iranian prison during the 1979 revolution using a team of former operators and improvised tactics.
  • Summary: Perot’s EDS employees were imprisoned after the revolution when the new regime refused to pay for software work. The extraction team planned to use buckshot smuggled in a therapy ball to arm themselves after buying shotguns locally. The team successfully navigated checkpoints by displaying pictures of either the Shah or the Ayatollah, depending on the checkpoint’s allegiance.
Regional War Potential and Strait of Hormuz
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(01:23:14)
  • Key Takeaway: A true regional war is unlikely because only the US, UK, France, and China possess the necessary expeditionary and logistical capabilities, and regional Arab armies are primarily structured for internal security.
  • Summary: Iran’s strategy of attacking Arab neighbors to force the US out failed, instead uniting the region against them. Iran’s ability to effectively mine the Strait of Hormuz is hampered by the destruction of its naval assets, though small USVs remain a threat. Insurance, rather than military escort, is currently the biggest factor determining if ships transit the strait.