The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

Will the U.S. Go to War With Iran? — with Karim Sadjadpour

February 26, 2026

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  • The current U.S.-Iran tension is characterized as a 'game of chicken' between President Trump and Supreme Leader Khamenei, with Trump preferring a deal but military action being increasingly likely. 
  • The Islamic Republic of Iran is currently weaker than it has been in decades due to internal dissent and external pressure, though its ultimate response to U.S. military action remains unpredictable. 
  • A transition in Iran from the current theocratic regime to a nationalist government would be a significant geopolitical and geoeconomic game-changer, aligning U.S. interests with the aspirations of the Iranian people. 

Segments

Resist and Unsubscribe Review
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(00:01:59)
  • Key Takeaway: The ‘Resist and Unsubscribe’ campaign achieved 22 million social media views and nearly 2 million unique site visits, demonstrating the power of social media over traditional media for driving influence.
  • Summary: The campaign’s success was largely driven by social media, with celebrity posts like Chelsea Handler’s generating significant engagement and estimated market cap impact. Traditional media provided a halo effect, but social virality was the primary driver of traffic. Mentions from elected representatives did not significantly drive traffic to the site.
Future of Resistance Efforts
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(00:06:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The ‘Resist and Unsubscribe’ effort is concluding its initial one-month push, encouraging participants to support other narrow and easy boycotts, specifically canceling ChatGPT.
  • Summary: Future options included partnering with other efforts or zeroing in on specific companies, but the movement is pausing active promotion while keeping the site live. The team highlights ‘Quit GPT’ as a recommended action due to OpenAI being a major tech donor and facilitator for ICE. An impact calculator is also recommended for quantifying individual consumer actions.
Personal Motivation and Action
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(00:08:10)
  • Key Takeaway: The host’s participation in the campaign was driven by anxiety over attacks on core American values like rule of law and competition, finding that action absorbs anxiety.
  • Summary: The speaker feels a debt to past generations who sacrificed for current freedoms and urges listeners to move beyond keyboard activism to tangible actions like voter registration or protesting. The speaker plans to continue taking action, including an upcoming event in Minneapolis, as part of a commitment to playing a role in future elections.
Introduction of Karim Sadjadpour
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(00:10:48)
  • Key Takeaway: Karim Sadjadpour, a Carnegie Endowment senior fellow, was interviewed regarding U.S.-Iran tensions, the odds of strikes, and requirements for a successful nuclear deal.
  • Summary: The conversation with Sadjadpour was recorded on Monday, February 23rd, necessitating awareness of potential headline changes. Sadjadpour specializes in Iran and U.S. foreign policy. The discussion aims to break down the escalating tensions between the two nations.
U.S.-Iran Tensions Analysis
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(00:11:45)
  • Key Takeaway: The current situation is a high-stakes game of chicken between President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei, where Trump’s strategy mirrors his approach to Venezuela.
  • Summary: Trump’s advisors are confused why Iran has not compromised despite massive U.S. military buildup, the largest since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Khamenei’s core principle is resistance against America, making compromise unlikely under current pressure. Iran poses significant risks, including short-range missiles targeting U.S. bases and threats to oil installations.
Regime Change vs. Deal Viability
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(00:15:22)
  • Key Takeaway: While the Iranian people aspire for a democratic, U.S.-friendly nation, the current regime is malicious, and history suggests that external military force is unlikely to dictate a clean regime change outcome.
  • Summary: The gap between the Iranian government (acting like North Korea) and its people (desiring a South Korea-like society) is unsustainable, especially after recent crackdowns. The U.S. has a poor track record dictating outcomes in the Middle East, suggesting Iran’s future rests with its people. Conflating hopes for democracy with realistic outcomes is a historical pitfall.
Military Action Likelihood and Response
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(00:20:25)
  • Key Takeaway: The Islamic Republic is currently on its heels with decimated proxies and disabled air defenses, making this a unique moment for potential military action, possibly targeting the Supreme Leader.
  • Summary: The likelihood of boots on the ground is very low due to lack of political support, but targeted assassination of Khamenei is a possibility, potentially leading to suffocation if he hides in a bunker. The key unknown is the cohesion of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia following the death of the Supreme Leader.
Past Military Successes and Strategy
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(00:42:00)
  • Key Takeaway: The U.S. strategy lacks the clear alignment with freedom-seeking aspirations that characterized Reagan’s approach to the Soviet Union, leading to muddy objectives regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Summary: Trump declared the previous military action against nuclear sites a success, yet now seeks a nuclear deal, indicating a contradiction in stated goals. The U.S. needs institutions that actively support democratic change movements, which have atrophied since the Cold War. The ultimate end to the U.S.-Iran Cold War requires a nationalist government in Iran reflecting its people’s interests.
Regional Allies’ Stance on Strikes
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(00:29:52)
  • Key Takeaway: Israel publicly supports and will likely participate in a strike, whereas Gulf nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia publicly oppose strikes and refuse airspace use due to fear of Iranian retaliation and ‘hit and run’ scenarios.
  • Summary: Gulf nations fear being left vulnerable if the U.S. military presence withdraws after an attack, as they have much to lose from Iranian retaliation destroying decades of development. The UAE, in contrast to Iran, has successfully pursued a forward-looking vision, while Iran clings to a backward-looking 1979 vision.
Iranian Diaspora and Future Hopes
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(00:57:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The Iranian population is overwhelmingly pro-American and secular, desperate to separate mosque and state, recognizing that the current regime’s anti-American slogan prevents national fulfillment.
  • Summary: The regime views its successful diaspora, including industry leaders, as adversaries and uses hostage-taking as a business model. The legacy of 47 years of theocracy is a population desperate for separation of mosque and state. The aspirations of young Iranians align with capitalist, Western-oriented values, offering hope for future positive change.