The Big Picture

The Oscar Hangover Mailbag. Plus: ‘Dune: Part Three’ Is Coming!

March 17, 2026

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  • The hosts are highly enthusiastic about the newly released trailer for Denis Villeneuve's 'Dune Part Three,' viewing it as an epic sci-fi event that could be an awards contender. 
  • The confirmed December 18th release date for 'Dune Part Three' directly challenging 'Avengers Doomsday' signals a perceived waning of Marvel's box office dominance. 
  • Universal's decision to extend theatrical windows to five weeks (2026) and seven weeks (2027) suggests that the previous short PVOD windows were not as financially successful as publicly claimed. 
  • The 2024 Oscars telecast suffered from poor production, particularly regarding the handling of the 'K-Pop Demon Hunters' performance and the aggressive cutting of winners' speeches, despite generally positive vibes about the actual film awards. 
  • The Oscars should leverage their extensive archive by creating dedicated YouTube content to engage audiences year-round, moving beyond just the annual telecast. 
  • Conan O'Brien is highly regarded as a potential returning host for the Oscars due to his skillful hosting during the recent ceremony, though Kumail Nanjiani is also seen as a strong, funny replacement option. 
  • The rarity of the hosts' favorite movie winning Best Picture is confirmed through a detailed, decade-by-decade review of past Oscar winners, highlighting that the 2024 winner, *Anora*, is one of the few instances where their top pick aligned with the Academy's choice. 
  • The recent Oscars may be viewed in retrospect as either the 'funeral pyre' for studio filmmaking's primacy or an outlier year, with future success depending on adaptations like *Project Hail Mary* that offer familiar yet fresh spins. 
  • Ryan Coogler's Oscar win solidifies him as a major, fixture presence at the Academy Awards, having elevated a generation of filmmakers with him. 
  • Filmmakers like Coogler should aim for the 'Nolan' status, where their new projects become annual cinematic events by continuing to pursue insightful, original-feeling work rather than just franchise installments. 

Segments

Hotels.com Ad Read
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Hotels.com’s ‘Save Your Way’ feature allows members to take instant savings or bank them as rewards.
  • Summary: Hotels.com introduced the ‘Save Your Way’ feature for loyalty members in the US and UK. Members can choose between taking instant savings immediately or banking those savings as rewards for future bookings. This feature is only available for hotels offering member prices.
Episode Introduction and Oscars Hangover
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(00:00:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts are kicking off ‘The Big Picture’ episode by addressing lingering post-Oscars questions and movie news.
  • Summary: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins begin the episode by diving into mailbag questions following the Academy Awards. They plan to discuss Oscar season wrap-up, potential early forecasting for next year, and recent movie news. The segment is set to cover the new ‘Dune Part Three’ trailer shortly after the initial break.
State Farm Ad Read
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(00:01:15)
  • Key Takeaway: State Farm promotes bundling home and auto insurance through the Personal Price Plan for savings.
  • Summary: State Farm presents an advertisement encouraging viewers to save money by bundling their home and auto insurance. This saving option is available through their Personal Price Plan. Coverage eligibility and discount amounts vary by state.
Dune Part Three Trailer Reaction
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(00:01:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The ‘Dune Part Three’ trailer confirms the film is officially titled ‘Dune Part 3’ and features new cast members Robert Pattinson and Anya Taylor-Joy.
  • Summary: The hosts reacted immediately to the trailer for ‘Dune Part 3,’ which adapts Frank Herbert’s novelization conclusion under Denis Villeneuve. The trailer suggests a war movie with an epic scale, and the addition of Robert Pattinson hints at a potential supporting actor Oscar nomination for him. The hosts are excited for the film’s artistic execution and scale.
Dune 3 vs. Avengers Doomsday Release Date
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(00:04:24)
  • Key Takeaway: Warner Bros. is challenging Disney by sticking to the December 18th release date for ‘Dune Part 3,’ securing IMAX screens, signaling a shift in perceived Marvel power.
  • Summary: The December 18th release date for ‘Dune Part 3’ puts it in direct competition with ‘Avengers Doomsday,’ a date Warner Bros. seems determined to hold by securing premium IMAX screens. This standoff suggests Hollywood is less intimidated by Marvel, whose recent box office performance has been less dominant than pre-COVID. The hosts dubbed a potential face-off ‘Dunes Day.’
Miscellaneous Movie News Updates
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(00:16:22)
  • Key Takeaway: Bradley Cooper is set to direct and star in an ‘Ocean’s 11’ prequel, and ‘A Quiet Place 3’ (officially titled ‘A Quiet Place: Day One’) is confirmed with John Krasinski returning to write and direct.
  • Summary: Bradley Cooper will direct and star in the ‘Ocean’s 11’ prequel, replacing Lee Isaac Chung, while the potential for an ‘Oceans 14’ without Steven Soderbergh is a concern. ‘A Quiet Place 3’ is confirmed as ‘A Quiet Place: Day One,’ which will be the fourth film in the series, written and directed by John Krasinski. Krasinski’s next project, ‘Jack Ryan: Ghost War,’ will premiere on Amazon Prime Video on May 20th.
Universal Theatrical Window Extension
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(00:21:26)
  • Key Takeaway: Universal is extending its theatrical window to five weeks in 2026 and seven weeks in 2027, indicating that the PVOD business model may be less robust than previously suggested.
  • Summary: Universal announced it will extend theatrical windows for major releases to two months by 2027, moving away from the 17-day COVID-era window. This move suggests that the high revenue previously attributed to PVOD sales for some films might not have been sufficient to maintain the shorter window. The hosts view this as a positive development for theaters and the traditional movie-making ecosystem.
Hoppers Box Office and Audience Reception
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(00:25:42)
  • Key Takeaway: ‘Hoppers’ has grossed $164 million in 10 days, demonstrating a strong box office bounce-back for original storytelling, evidenced by a child listener’s unprompted question about its robot beaver.
  • Summary: The film ‘Hoppers’ is performing strongly, grossing $164 million in 10 days, suggesting a resurgence for original, non-franchise storytelling. The film’s impact is noted by a listener’s child spontaneously asking about a specific plot point days after viewing. Box office receipts are up 14% year-over-year, signaling positive momentum for the industry.
Oscar Telecast Vibe and Ratings Speculation
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(00:28:48)
  • Key Takeaway: The post-Oscars vibe is positive because the widely seen films, ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners,’ which both grossed over $200 million, were the main contenders, unlike previous years where blockbusters had no chance to win.
  • Summary: The general feeling surrounding the Oscars was positive because the top contenders were highly visible, widely seen films, a rarity in Oscar history. The hosts speculate that the ratings might be up because more people were invested in the actual results this year. Paul Thomas Anderson’s resistance to explaining his film’s themes confirms that artists often cannot satisfy public inquiry into subjective art.
Timothée Chalamet’s Career Trajectory
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(00:36:20)
  • Key Takeaway: Timothée Chalamet is expected to be fine despite not winning, as his career balance of prestige, genre, and franchise work, including ‘Dune Part Three,’ is considered smart, and his next film is a James Mangold crime movie.
  • Summary: The consensus is that Timothée Chalamet will recover from not winning, as his career choices have been strategically balanced between major franchises and auteur-driven projects. His decision to pursue ‘Dune’ over a villain role in a Batman film is viewed as smart career management. His next confirmed project is a crime movie directed by James Mangold.
Horror Genre’s Academy Standing
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(00:42:48)
  • Key Takeaway: The Oscar wins for ‘Sinners,’ ‘Frankenstein,’ and ‘Weapons’ do not signal a permanent shift in the Academy’s stance on horror, as these films crossed over into prestige categories or were already prestige-adjacent.
  • Summary: The wins for genre films like ‘Weapons’ (acting) and ‘Frankenstein’ (technical categories) are seen as individual achievements rather than a systemic change in the Academy’s view of horror. ‘Sinners’ was a musical/action hybrid, diluting its pure horror categorization for awards purposes. The hosts believe a true shift will occur when a less commercially accessible horror film secures a Best Picture nomination.
Oscar Experimentation on YouTube
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(00:49:51)
  • Key Takeaway: The aggressive playing-off of winners was a production failure unrelated to time limits, and the move to YouTube in 2029 offers potential for deeper engagement through dedicated channels and archival content.
  • Summary: The disrespect shown to winners was due to poor production planning, especially concerning multiple winners and the handling of the ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters’ performance, not just broadcast time constraints. The move to YouTube presents an opportunity for the Academy to create a year-round engagement strategy, utilizing its vast archive content. The hosts suggest creating a dedicated, continuous Oscars channel on the platform.
Oscar Show Length Critique
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(00:53:23)
  • Key Takeaway: The four-hour duration of the Oscars telecast is unsustainable for modern television audiences.
  • Summary: Almost nothing on television currently runs for four hours, making the length of the award show problematic for retention. The hosts noted that the handling of multiple winners, including ties, was a disorganized and disrespectful mess. They expressed hope that the Academy will improve planning for the following year.
YouTube Oscars Engagement
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(00:54:06)
  • Key Takeaway: The Oscars should establish a dedicated YouTube channel utilizing their vast archive to become a year-round engagement platform.
  • Summary: The hosts suggested YouTube TV should host an Oscars channel to create a 12-month engagement cycle. This channel could feature fascinating archival content, such as old opening numbers, musical performances, and shocking speeches. Utilizing this raw material effectively would transform the archive into valuable movie history programming.
Next Oscar Host Candidates
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(00:56:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Conan O’Brien is favored to return as host, but Kumail Nanjiani is a strong contender following his excellent DGA hosting performance.
  • Summary: The hosts expressed a desire to see Conan O’Brien return, noting his ability to guide the show safely and his funny pre-written bits. Kumail Nanjiani proved his capability by hosting the DGAs effectively and handling the live tie moment with composure. John Mulaney is also mentioned as a potential host, though he has reportedly turned down the offer previously.
Matt Damon and Ben Affleck Hosting
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(00:59:45)
  • Key Takeaway: Matt Damon and Ben Affleck hosting the Oscars would be a dream scenario, but their dynamic might require careful management to maximize their comedic potential.
  • Summary: The hosts believe Damon and Affleck should host, comparing their dynamic to the CR/Andy dynamic (likely referencing The Office). They noted that if forced to be straight men, their chemistry might not shine as brightly as when they are allowed to roam free. The success of their hosting would depend on the quality of the nominated films that year.
2027 Film Slate Speculation
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(01:01:09)
  • Key Takeaway: The 2027 Oscar slate is currently dominated by massive franchise sequels, suggesting a potential ‘dud year’ for prestige cinema.
  • Summary: The 2027 film slate, airing in 2028, is heavily populated by sequels like Avengers: Secret Wars, Frozen 3, and Spider-Verse 3. This reliance on franchise films raises concerns about the quality of the eventual Best Picture nominees. The hosts noted the late placement of Shrek 5 in 2027 was tough news.
Favorite Film vs. Best Picture Wins
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(01:03:35)
  • Key Takeaway: It is extremely rare for the hosts’ favorite film of the year to win Best Picture, with One Battle After Another being only the fourth confirmed instance for the hosts in the modern era.
  • Summary: The hosts tallied only four years where their favorite film won Best Picture, including It Happened One Night (1934) and Mutiny on the Bounty (1935). They debated several close calls, such as preferring Sunset Boulevard over All About Eve and Chinatown over The Godfather Part II. The recent win for Anora was noted as the first time this alignment occurred since the 1990s.
Darkest Oscar Timeline Scenarios
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(01:17:07)
  • Key Takeaway: The darkest timeline for the Big Six Oscars would have involved Frankenstein winning Best Picture, Chloe Zhao winning Director, and Kate Hudson winning Actress.
  • Summary: The hosts identified a specific combination of wins that would have left the worst taste, including Kate Hudson for Actress, which they felt would be too ‘industry-y’ after the Grogu bit. They agreed that any original screenplay winner other than Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) or adapted screenplay winner other than PTA would have been rough. A Timothée Chalamet win is cited as a potential troll moment that would have caused a meltdown.
Next Three-Time Acting Winner
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(01:20:54)
  • Key Takeaway: Emma Stone is considered the most likely active actor to secure a third acting Oscar soon, while Leonardo DiCaprio is already placed on the Jack Nicholson level of stardom.
  • Summary: Emma Stone is viewed as a strong bet to win another Oscar, similar to Meryl Streep’s trajectory, despite Jodie Foster’s recent strong performance in Niad. Leonardo DiCaprio is firmly placed alongside Jack Nicholson in terms of star power and generational representation, though Brando is considered a different category due to his transformative acting influence. John Goodman is highlighted as a major deserving actor who has never received an Oscar nomination.
Academy Releasing Vote Totals
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(01:26:49)
  • Key Takeaway: The Academy will likely never release vote totals because the organization prioritizes protecting nominees’ feelings over transparency seen in other major sports awards.
  • Summary: The hosts believe a sustained push for vote transparency, similar to sports awards, will fail because the Oscars operate differently. They noted that even in sports, winners often show deep emotion, suggesting feelings are still hurt regardless of published tallies. Furthermore, they argued that streamers winning Best Picture is not currently a major issue, as only Apple has won Best Picture so far.
Building Positive Cinema Momentum
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(01:29:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Studios must continue investing in great artists and avoid treating audiences like they only want to consume ‘garbage’ to maintain the current positive momentum in cinema.
  • Summary: The key to sustaining momentum is taking chances on great artists and ensuring supportive environments across marketing and production. Director Ryan Coogler’s proactive marketing strategy for Sinners was cited as a smart way to sell important films to the world. Audiences are sophisticated and want quality content, not just disposable entertainment.
100th Oscars Celebration Ideas
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(01:39:50)
  • Key Takeaway: The 100th Oscars should focus on the ceremony’s history, potentially mirroring the SNL 50th anniversary structure with a separate televised event beforehand.
  • Summary: The hosts argued against cramming 100 years of film history into one broadcast, suggesting instead a year-long build-up. They proposed using archival clips of acceptance speeches and great Oscar moments, rather than just general film moments. A pre-show event, similar to SNL 50’s concert, could celebrate Oscar history without burdening the main telecast.
Post-Oscar Omen for Hollywood
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(01:43:38)
  • Key Takeaway: The 2024 Oscars could be viewed as the ‘funeral pyre’ for the primacy of large-scale, prestigious studio filmmaking, though major studios like Universal will continue producing quality work.
  • Summary: The current trend suggests a potential end to the era where large-scale, prestigious films compete heavily for Best Picture, though this might not be absolute due to upcoming prestige blockbusters like Dune: Part Three. Studios like Disney and Amazon need to prioritize making more mainstream, original adult films. Movies like Project Hail Mary represent the future of successful, non-original, large-scale cinema.
Oscars Omen Reflection
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(01:43:28)
  • Key Takeaway: The 2024 Oscars might be seen as either the end of studio filmmaking’s prestige or an outlier moment, depending on future industry trends.
  • Summary: The hosts speculate on what the 2024 Oscars will signify looking back from 2036, questioning if it marks the end of big-budget, original studio art competing for Best Picture. They counter the ‘funeral pyre’ reading by noting upcoming major releases like Dune: Part Three and Universal’s continued output. The future of mainstream, adult filmmaking likely rests on adaptations that offer a fresh spin, exemplified by Project Hail Mary.
PTA’s Outlier Win
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(01:45:32)
  • Key Takeaway: Paul Thomas Anderson winning Best Picture for a $100 million original film, culminating in a subdued acceptance speech, will likely be viewed as a unique, generational moment similar to Spielberg’s 1993 or Scorsese’s 2006 Oscar wins.
  • Summary: PTA’s Best Picture win is considered an outlier event, contrasting sharply with expectations for an original screenplay or director win. This moment is compared to past generational director milestones like Spielberg in ‘93 and Scorsese in ‘06, marking a significant career peak for him.
Ryan Coogler’s Ascent
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(01:46:16)
  • Key Takeaway: Ryan Coogler’s first Oscar win crystallizes his status as a major industry fixture who actively brings up an entire generation of below-the-line talent with him.
  • Summary: Coogler is expected to become a regular presence at the Oscars due to his influence and the success of his collaborators. While his upcoming projects include X-Files and Black Panther 3, the hope is he continues making films like Sinners to maintain that level of critical impact. Achieving Nolan-level status means every film he releases becomes a major annual event.
2027 Oscar Predictions
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(01:48:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Anticipated contenders for future Oscars include Dune: Part Three, Martin McDonough’s Wild Horse Nine, and films from major talents like Iñárritu and Sorkin.
  • Summary: The hosts briefly list potential future contenders, including Dune: Part Three and Project Hail Mary. Martin McDonough’s Wild Horse Nine is cited as a potential ‘It’s Time’ candidate, alongside projects like Iñárritu’s Digger and Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning. Anne Hathaway is also mentioned as having multiple films that could lead to an Oscar nomination.
Post-Show Wrap Up
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(01:50:26)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts thank producer Jack Sanders for his high volume of recent production work and announce the next episode will cover Project Hail Mary.
  • Summary: Producer Jack Sanders is credited for producing multiple episodes of The Big Picture in quick succession. Lucas Cavanagh is thanked for production support. The show concludes by announcing the next episode will break down Project Hail Mary on Friday.