The Big Picture

The Final Best Picture Power Rankings and a ‘Sinners’ Second Look With Autumn Durald Arkapaw!

February 24, 2026

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  • The BAFTA results, including wins for Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn (both for *Sinners* and *One Battle* respectively), suggest that several acting categories for the upcoming Academy Awards are surprisingly open, despite initial predictions. 
  • The film *How to Make a Killing*, directed by John Patton Ford, was perceived as a solid, enjoyable 'six or a seven' movie that was unfortunately 'dumped' by its distributor into a poor release window. 
  • The second look at *Sinners* confirmed its status as 'magical moviemaking,' highlighting its sharp rendering of sex and desire, brilliant use of music by Ludwig Göransson, and complex thematic layering beyond its surface-level vampire genre elements. 
  • The musical score for the discussed film (implied to be *Sinners*) is praised for its cultural mashup approach, blending Delta Blues, orchestral, gospel, and heavy metal elements, solidifying Ludwig Göransson's status as a major composer. 
  • The Best Picture Power Rankings saw *Begonia* drop to the bottom spot due to a lack of wins, while the hosts debated the relative chances of *F1* versus *The Secret Agent* in technical categories. 
  • Cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw detailed her career path from photography and advertising to film school, emphasizing that securing work often relies on strong personal connections forged early in one's career, such as her connection with Gia Coppola. 
  • Cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw prioritizes understanding the director's emotional intent, often through detailed conversations about character arc and references, rather than relying on explicit camera movement descriptions in the screenplay. 
  • Arkapaw favors anamorphic lenses for the distinct feeling and texture they provide, stemming from her appreciation of vintage 70s films, and she often employs a personal 'center punch' framing technique to keep subjects in the middle of the frame. 
  • The most challenging sequence to capture for Arkapaw was the final river fight scene in flames, due to the complexity of coordinating stunts, VFX elements, and the time constraints of a sunrise shoot. 

Segments

BAFTA Results Analysis
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(00:03:31)
  • Key Takeaway: BAFTA Best Film results offer little predictive value for the Oscars, having matched only two of the last 14 Best Picture winners.
  • Summary: The BAFTA Best Film award is historically not a strong predictor for the Academy Awards Best Picture winner. However, the acting wins, such as Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, suggest that several acting categories are currently wide open. The upcoming PGAs and SAG Awards next weekend will be crucial in clarifying these uncertain races.
Supporting Actor Race Openness
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(00:06:21)
  • Key Takeaway: Sean Penn’s BAFTA win for One Battle complicates the Supporting Actor race, making it highly unpredictable with contenders like Stellan Skarsgård, Delroy Lindo, and Alordi still in play.
  • Summary: Sean Penn’s victory, which the host had previously speculated about, is seen as a significant development in a category previously leaning toward Stellan Skarsgård. The Academy often rewards revered actors playing villains, which benefits Penn’s performance. The race remains wide open, with Alordi also considered a strong contender, especially if he secures a SAG win.
Supporting Actress Momentum Shift
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(00:10:22)
  • Key Takeaway: Wunmi Mosaku’s BAFTA win for Sinners significantly boosts her momentum in the Supporting Actress category, potentially swinging support toward Delroy Lindo for Sinners as well.
  • Summary: The Supporting Actress category is wide open, with Wunmi Mosaku’s BAFTA win being a key indicator of momentum heading into the SAG Awards. If Sinners secures two acting wins early in the Oscar telecast, it will signal strong overall enthusiasm for the film. The non-representation of the Sentimental Value actresses at SAG is noted as a disadvantage.
Lead Actor Race Volatility
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(00:11:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The Lead Actor race is now highly volatile following Robert Aramaya’s unexpected BAFTA win for I Swear, potentially weakening Timothy Chalamet’s perceived lock status.
  • Summary: Robert Aramaya’s win for a film not previously discussed in the US awards circuit adds a major wrinkle to the Lead Actor race, suggesting Timothy Chalamet might be weaker than anticipated. Marty Supreme went 0 for 11 at the BAFTAs, raising concerns about its overall momentum. Chalamet faces the historical hurdle of no actor winning the SAG Award two years consecutively.
Reviewing How to Make a Killing
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(00:15:47)
  • Key Takeaway: Director John Patton Ford successfully crafts an enjoyable, sharply observed ‘Eat the Rich’ caper, despite an inherent tonal clash between its farcical murder plot and serious class commentary.
  • Summary: The film, starring Glenn Powell, is based on the 1949 British film Kind Hearts and Coronets and features a strong ensemble cast. While the tonal shifts between farce and tragedy are sometimes difficult to navigate, the movie is praised for its watchable lead and Ford’s knack for observing class anxiety. Its poor box office performance is attributed to it being a mid-tier ‘six or a seven’ film better suited for a September release than a February one.
Sinners Second Look
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(00:26:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Upon rewatching Sinners, the vampire mayhem felt less successful than the film’s conceptual framework regarding the colonization of Black art and the exploration of desire and spirituality.
  • Summary: The film’s core strength lies in its complex metaphors: the vampires representing the siphoning of Black art and the loss of self within a collective. The sequence where Sammy sees his future as Buddy Guy, driving away from the church, suggests a rebellion against organized religion in favor of personal passion. The non-Black women in the film are consistently the ones who invite the vampires in, contrasting with Annie, who is portrayed as the wisest figure.
Genre and Musical Analysis
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(00:59:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Ludwig Göransson’s musical style involves cultural mashups, exemplified in Sinners by blending Delta Blues, orchestral, gospel, and heavy metal.
  • Summary: The genre framework of the film is essential, and its musical structure features set pieces where the movie stops for musical performance. Göransson is noted for iterating on cultural mashups, similar to his work on Black Panther and Oppenheimer. The music for Sinners specifically incorporates a vast range of American guitar music, from Willie Dixon to Alice in Chains.
Composer Status Comparison
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(01:00:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Ludwig Göransson is ascending to John Williams status due to his successful collaborations with major directors like Christopher Nolan.
  • Summary: The discussion compares Göransson’s career trajectory to that of John Williams, noting his established collaborations with Nolan mirroring Williams’ work with Lucas and Spielberg. The hosts express admiration for Göransson’s potential for long-term success in the industry. They also note that Dan LaPatin’s score for The Zone of Interest was a favorite that deserved nomination.
Oscar Snubs and Legacy
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(01:01:14)
  • Key Takeaway: Several highly respected industry figures, including Jonny Greenwood, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Harrison Ford, lack Academy Awards.
  • Summary: The lack of an Oscar for Jonny Greenwood is highlighted as unusual, linking it to PTA also not having won an Oscar. The conversation briefly touches on other notable figures without wins, such as Dave Grusin and Stanley Kubrick. The hosts acknowledge that some deserving artists are simply overlooked by the Academy.
Best Picture Power Rankings Update
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(01:08:51)
  • Key Takeaway: The power rankings were updated following the BAFTAs, with Begonia dropping from ninth to tenth place because it failed to secure any wins.
  • Summary: The rankings are being assessed before the PGA and Actor Awards, which are considered highly predictive for Best Picture. If Sinners wins PGA and has a strong night at the SAG Awards, the host who has been wavering might flip their prediction. The established ranking places Sinners second and One Battle After Another first, based on January standings.
Ryan Coogler’s Career Trajectory
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(01:04:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Ryan Coogler is recognized as an incredible team builder and legacy builder, though Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was considered his weakest film.
  • Summary: Coogler is seen as an effective advocate for his films and has become more visible publicly, even appearing on podcasts. The hosts speculate on his contractual obligation to make Black Panther 3 but express excitement for what he does next, perhaps a heist film like Thomas Crown Affair.
Cinematographer’s Early Influences
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(01:32:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Autumn Durald Arkapaw cited Bernardo Bertolucci’s The Last Emperor as the first film that made her feel the scope and smallness of cinematic worlds.
  • Summary: She was mesmerized by the scope and feeling of reality in The Last Emperor at age 9 or 10, which resonated with her love for landscape and big camera work. Her path into cinematography was not direct; she initially studied art history before being hooked by Broadway Danny Rose and Raging Bull in a genre course.
Path to Professional Cinematography
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(01:36:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Gaining entry into professional cinematography relies heavily on networking, as classmates from film school often become the source of early job opportunities.
  • Summary: After being rejected from AFI the first year, she gained necessary set experience by working as an Assistant Camera (AC) on a documentary TV show. Her entry into working with Gia Coppola came when a classmate recommended her for a test shoot she couldn’t attend.
Indie vs. Big Budget Work
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(01:41:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Big budget filmmaking involves significantly more management and studio oversight compared to indie work, where the cinematographer holds more creative power.
  • Summary: Durald Arkapaw notes that both low and high-budget films lack sufficient time and money, but larger productions require more management due to increased resources and personnel. Indie experience sharpens the ability to make something look expensive with minimal resources, while big budget work involves answering to the studio.
Documentary Work and Collaborations
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(01:43:48)
  • Key Takeaway: Her documentary work, including projects with Khalil Joseph and Spike Lee, helped her build strong professional communities with singular, visionary filmmakers.
  • Summary: She worked with Khalil Joseph on various concert films, including the Haiti segment of RK Fire, and met Bradford Young through an AFI connection, who later recommended her to Ryan Coogler. She enjoys working with directors whose visions align with hers, fostering positive, supportive environments on set.
Filmmaking Collaboration and Process
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(01:48:52)
  • Key Takeaway: Long-term collaborations, like the one on ‘Underwater,’ foster deep understanding of a director’s filmmaking style, which is crucial for emotionally significant projects like ‘Sinners.’
  • Summary: Working on a year-long project allows a team to intimately understand each other’s methods for making films. For director Ryan, ‘Sinners’ was emotionally significant, requiring the team to be fully supportive. The process for securing Arkapaw’s involvement often begins with a phone call, script reading, and email exchange since they do not live in the same town.
Script Detail and Director’s Vision
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(01:50:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Ryan Coogler’s screenplays contain minimal description of camera moves, relying instead on the established ‘hive mind’ with department heads like Arkapaw and production designer Hannah Beelker.
  • Summary: The script itself does not instruct specific camera movements; instead, the visual language is developed during prep through storyboarding and previs for complex sequences. Arkapaw notes that as the team has become more consistent, the descriptive detail in the scripts has decreased. The director’s unique writing style creates full, realized characters that make the scripts compelling to read.
Technical Prep and Complex Shots
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(01:53:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Complex shots, such as the fluid grocery store sequence, are meticulously planned and boarded in prep, requiring Arkapaw to solve logistical challenges related to lighting and camera movement.
  • Summary: The director clearly communicates desired shots, like the one-er inside the juke, which was written in italics, and the team figures out the necessary tools during preparation. Arkapaw enjoys these challenging, problem-solving sequences because the technical work ultimately results in an immersive feeling for the audience, rather than appearing overtly technical.
Anamorphic Lenses Explained
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(01:55:29)
  • Key Takeaway: Anamorphic lenses provide a specific, desired feeling and texture, achieved by squeezing the image onto the film gate (or digital sensor) and unsqueezing it during projection, yielding twice the width for a ‘scopey’ field of view.
  • Summary: Arkapaw uses anamorphic lenses because they evoke a feeling, referencing vintage 70s films shot with this format, like ‘Manhattan.’ The process involves a squeeze factor, and she often modifies lenses (detuning them) to control fall-off and aberration, drawing from different Panavision series with unique chemical coatings.
Framing Style and Aspect Ratios
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(01:57:52)
  • Key Takeaway: Arkapaw’s preference for center punching subjects in the frame is a strong personal choice that creates iconography, though she will adjust this based on the director’s specific emotional needs for a scene.
  • Summary: The standard 1.78:1 ratio created for television is disliked by Arkapaw in favor of wider film ratios, like the 2.76:1 achieved with Ultra Panavision 70. While she defaults to centering subjects, she recalls a specific instance where Ryan requested a left-weighted frame to emphasize one character’s imposing weight over another.
Ultra Panavision 70 vs. IMAX 65
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(02:02:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Ultra Panavision 70 (2.76:1) is an anamorphic format using a 1.3 squeeze, distinct from Super Panavision (2.20:1), while IMAX 65mm (5-perf or 15-perf) provides a taller aspect ratio (1.43:1 or 1.90:1 for digital).
  • Summary: The Ultra Panavision 70 system is proprietary to Panavision and results in an extremely wide image. Center punching during the 65mm capture is advantageous because when extracting the 2.76:1 version, the centered subject remains correctly framed, minimizing adjustments for standard laser projection.
Challenging VFX and Ecstatic Moments
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(02:07:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The most challenging visual moment was the night shoot of the river fight where the character is in flames, requiring extensive in-camera reference work with VFX to maintain realism.
  • Summary: Ecstatic moments, like the ‘I Lied to You’ sequence, are recognized on set when the collaboration between the director, actors, and crew creates an undeniable emotional feeling through the lens. For the fire scene, Arkapaw ensured realism by shooting reference plates with a stunt person in a fire suit, emphasizing that the goal is to make VFX look as real as possible.
Lighting Sensitivity and Actor Trust
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(02:13:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Arkapaw prioritizes lighting actors within the established story world and aesthetic, often preferring dramatic top-lighting that creates shadow, even if it means darker eyes, over over-lighting to satisfy external concerns.
  • Summary: Trust is essential, as seen with Pamela Anderson who wanted to appear raw without heavy makeup, contrasting with situations where actors request lighting that separates them from the film’s established visual framework. For ‘Sinners,’ which is framed as a vampire horror movie, Arkapaw intentionally uses top light to mimic moonlight, accepting that darker eyes are necessary for the mood.
Visual References and Authenticity
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(02:17:36)
  • Key Takeaway: The primary visual reference for ‘Sinners’ was Eudora Welty’s black and white photographs from the 1930s, which provided a sense of real humanity and authenticity that Arkapaw strives to recreate through stylized cinematography.
  • Summary: Ryan Coogler provided Welty’s photographs because they captured a special, real moment in time, which serves as the foundation for the film’s reality. Arkapaw draws inspiration from these real-world references to ensure the make-believe elements, like the characters being vampires, feel believable to the audience.
IMAX Camera Impact and Pacing
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(02:19:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The IMAX camera is significantly louder than digital alternatives, requiring actors to be fully on board with the slower pace and potential disruption to intimacy, though the resulting image quality is considered unparalleled.
  • Summary: The loud nature of the IMAX camera necessitates that actors must be comfortable performing close-ups while potentially shouting over the noise, demanding a high level of respect for the pacing on set. Arkapaw notes that directors like Ryan sometimes convert anamorphic scenes to IMAX, requiring careful communication with actors about the change in environment.
Revisiting David Lean’s Scope
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(02:22:58)
  • Key Takeaway: The last great thing Autumn Durald Arkapaw saw was ‘Lawrence of Arabia,’ which exemplifies the epic, overwhelming cinematic experience that audiences desire in large-format theaters.
  • Summary: Arkapaw revisited ‘Lawrence of Arabia’ while preparing for a documentary interview about David Lean, noting his progression toward massive canvases. She specifically cited a frame from the film featuring a lone figure flanked by others in the widescreen anamorphic frame as the ideal visual she constantly aims for.