The Big Picture

Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

March 12, 2026

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  • The hosts of "The Big Picture" are making their final predictions for all 24 races of the 98th Academy Awards, with live coverage planned for the broadcast and immediate aftermath. 
  • The hosts reacted enthusiastically to the new trailer for Steven Spielberg's upcoming film, 'Disclosure Day,' noting its shift toward grounded themes of governmental distrust and featuring Josh O'Connor and Emily Blunt. 
  • The hosts anticipate a highly unpredictable Oscar night, noting that the current race feels like a collision between 'vibes and precedent' due to the strength of competing films like 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners'. 
  • The hosts predict a dominant sweep for "One Battle After Another" in the craft categories, noting its unprecedented precursor success, but anticipate a potential split with "Sinners" in the acting categories, particularly Best Actor. 
  • The Best Supporting Actress category is identified as the most unpredictable race, with the hosts disagreeing on the winner between Amy Madigan and Wunmi Musaku, highlighting the difficulty in forecasting that specific award. 
  • The introduction of the Best Casting award is expected to go to Francine Maesler for "Sinners" due to her legendary career, despite other nominees showcasing significant discoveries of non-professional actors. 

Segments

Oscar Predictions Kickoff
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(00:00:15)
  • Key Takeaway: Hosts Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins confirm their final picks for all 24 races of the 98th Academy Awards.
  • Summary: The hosts are locked into their final Oscar predictions for the upcoming 98th Academy Awards. They announced plans for live coverage on Instagram before the ceremony and live analysis on Netflix immediately after the telecast. Sean also mentioned an upcoming interview with Steven Spielberg at South by Southwest.
Disclosure Day Trailer Reaction
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(00:02:11)
  • Key Takeaway: The trailer for Steven Spielberg’s ‘Disclosure Day’ reveals Josh O’Connor as an Edward Snowden-esque whistleblower dealing with alien data, grounding the sci-fi event movie in themes of governmental distrust.
  • Summary: The trailer suggests ‘Disclosure Day’ is more grounded in real-world issues, referencing Roswell and Area 51 cover-ups, which is timely given recent public comments about UFOs. Colin Firth appears in a sequence utilizing ‘bio virtual technology’ to control another character’s body, indicating a technological conspiracy element. The film is seen as a modern, more suspicious successor to Spielberg’s earlier work like ‘Close Encounters.’
Oscar Show Expectations and Music
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(00:09:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Conan O’Brien is returning to host the 98th Academy Awards, and only two original songs, including ‘Golden’ from ‘K-pop Demon Hunters,’ are confirmed for performance.
  • Summary: The hosts are optimistic about the broadcast due to Conan O’Brien’s sharp, non-mean hosting style, contrasting with the Trolls song performance from years past. They speculate ‘Golden’ might open the show due to its uplifting theme, and Misty Copeland is confirmed to perform during the telecast. The show’s runtime is projected to be around four hours, similar to the previous year.
Predictions Precursor: Sinners/One Battle
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(00:19:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The current Oscar race is characterized by a tension between ‘vibes and precedent,’ making it a vexing year where traditional Oscar logic is proving unreliable.
  • Summary: Both hosts feel the aggregate results of precursors are not aligning with their historical expectations for the major contenders, ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle After Another.’ Amanda notes that the Academy’s increasing diversity has washed out homogeneity, leading to more chaotic voting patterns. They agree that the discourse is noisy, with uncertainty over how much online buzz translates to actual Academy votes.
Animated and International Feature Picks
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(00:26:03)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts agree that ‘K-pop Demon Hunters’ will and should win Animated Feature Film, and they predict ‘Sentimental Value’ will win International Feature Film over Brazil’s ‘The Secret Agent.’
  • Summary: For Animated Feature, ‘K-pop Demon Hunters’ is the consensus pick, while ‘Little Amelie’ proved difficult to watch with a young child. In International Feature, ‘Sentimental Value’ is favored due to its high number of overall nominations, despite ‘The Secret Agent’ also being nominated for Best Picture.
Documentary and Score Predictions
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(00:31:32)
  • Key Takeaway: The Documentary Short category is predicted to go to ‘All the Empty Rooms,’ while the Original Score race is expected to be won by Ludwig Göransson for ‘Sinners,’ despite Amanda’s personal preference for Daniel Lopatin’s score for ‘Marty Supreme.’
  • Summary: The Documentary Feature category is seen as leaning toward ‘The Perfect Neighbor’ (Netflix), though ‘The Alabama Solution’ is the hosts’ preferred ‘should win.’ In Documentary Short, ‘All the Empty Rooms’ is the likely winner, though Amanda strongly advocates for ‘The Devil is Busy’ due to its focus on security officer Tracy at an Atlanta Planned Parenthood clinic.
Original Song and Short Film Picks
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(00:35:05)
  • Key Takeaway: ‘Golden’ from ‘K-pop Demon Hunters’ is considered a near-certainty to win Original Song, and the Animated Short ‘Papillon’ is predicted to win based on its visual distinction and Holocaust subject matter.
  • Summary: The Original Song category is viewed as a super lock for ‘Golden,’ which has successfully engaged young audiences, unlike the Trolls song from a previous year. In Animated Short, ‘Papillon’ is favored for its beautiful, hand-painted style depicting the story of a Jewish swimmer who survived the Holocaust.
Craft Categories: Costume, Makeup, Production Design
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(00:50:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The hosts predict a sweep for ‘Frankenstein’ in the makeup and hairstyling categories, while ‘Marty Supreme’ is expected to win Production Design over ‘Frankenstein,’ despite the latter’s guild dominance.
  • Summary: Costume Design is predicted to go to ‘Frankenstein’ (Will Win) over ‘Marty Supreme’ (Should Win). Makeup and Hairstyling is also expected to go to ‘Frankenstein,’ though Amanda favored ‘The Ugly Stepsister’ for its humor-driven makeup. Production Design is predicted to go to ‘Frankenstein,’ though Jack Fisk for ‘Marty Supreme’ is the hosts’ preferred winner.
Production Design Precedent Review
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(00:54:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The production design category often favors fantasy or period pieces, placing “Marty Supreme” in an ‘uncomfortable middle zone’ for recognition.
  • Summary: Voters in production design appreciate literal handwork, and the category’s focus waxes and wanes between genres. The production design in “Wicked” was deemed good despite poor cinematography, drawing a comparison to “Frankenstein.” The 2019 winner, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” is considered the closest comp to “Marty Supreme.”
Sound and Visual Effects Predictions
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(00:57:13)
  • Key Takeaway: “F1” is predicted to win Best Sound, likely as its only award, while Best Visual Effects is expected to go to “Avatar Fire and Ash” over the technically innovative “F1.”
  • Summary: The nominees for Best Sound include “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” and “Surat.” “Sinners” won the MPSE award for ADR Dialogue, which is relevant given the loud on-set cameras used for both it and “F1.” In Visual Effects, the hosts favor the established spectacle of “Avatar Fire and Ash” over the craft demonstrated in “F1.”
Film Editing and Casting Forecasts
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(00:59:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Andy Juergensen for “One Battle After Another” is the predicted winner for Film Editing, marking a potential quick award for a relatively new lead editor.
  • Summary: The Film Editing category is seen as indicative of the night’s overall momentum, with both hosts picking Andy Juergensen, whose only prior lead credit was “Licorice Pizza.” Best Casting, a new award, is strongly predicted to go to Francine Maesler for “Sinners” due to her legendary status and history of casting Best Picture nominees.
Cinematography and Screenplay Analysis
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(01:07:44)
  • Key Takeaway: Michael Bauman for “One Battle After Another” is the predicted winner for Cinematography, despite the historical significance of Autumn Durald Arkopaw potentially being the first female winner for “Sinners.”
  • Summary: The Cinematography race is tight, but precursor wins favor Michael Bauman, who previously shared a co-credit with Paul Thomas Anderson on an earlier film. The hosts note the historical anomaly that no woman has ever won the Best Cinematography award. For Best Original Screenplay, Ryan Coogler is expected to win for “Sinners” due to the ingenious metaphor central to the script.
Adapted Screenplay and Director Predictions
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(01:12:25)
  • Key Takeaway: Paul Thomas Anderson is overwhelmingly favored to win both Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Director for “One Battle After Another,” marking his likely first Oscar win.
  • Summary: This category is seen as the moment Paul Thomas Anderson finally receives an Academy Award after being 0 for 11 previously, despite the perceived snub of “Phantom Thread’s” screenplay. His DGA win solidifies his position in the Best Director race. The hosts feel this is a deserved culmination for the director’s body of work.
Supporting Actor and Actress Stumper
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(01:16:01)
  • Key Takeaway: The Supporting Actor race is predicted for Sean Penn, but the hosts acknowledge a genuine possibility of a surprise win for Stellan Skarsgård, signaling a potential “Sinners” vibe shift.
  • Summary: The Supporting Actress category is the only one where the hosts disagree, with one picking Amy Madigan based on legacy and SAG momentum, and the other favoring Wunmi Musaku. The Supporting Actor race is complicated by Sean Penn’s precursor wins despite not campaigning, contrasting with Stellan Skarsgård’s strong performance in the favored film.
Leading Actress and Actor Showdowns
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(01:25:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Jesse Buckley is the strong favorite for Best Actress for her overwhelming performance in “Hamnet,” while Best Actor remains a toss-up between Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Chalamet, and Leonardo DiCaprio.
  • Summary: Jesse Buckley’s performance, particularly in the film’s final 40 minutes and the birth scene, is described as astonishing and overwhelming. The Best Actor race is complicated by the SAG win for Michael B. Jordan, the historical precedent favoring established stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, and the recent negative press surrounding Timothy Chalamet’s comments.
Best Picture Final Verdict and Data
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(01:38:38)
  • Key Takeaway: Both hosts predict “One Battle After Another” will win Best Picture, despite the strong showing of “Sinners” in the acting categories, leading to a potential split of six major awards for the former.
  • Summary: “One Battle After Another” has swept nearly every major precursor award, including PGA, DGA, WGA, ASC, and BAFTA, making it the most dominant frontrunner in recent history. If it wins the predicted five craft/writing/directing awards plus Picture, it would be the first film since “Schindler’s List” to achieve that specific quintet without an acting win. The hosts acknowledge the possibility of a Best Actor split favoring Michael B. Jordan for “Sinners.”