The Michael Shermer Show

Why Eastbound Flights Are Faster, and Other Strange Things About Wind (Simon Winchester)

November 22, 2025

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  • The discovery of the jet stream by Japanese researcher Mr. Oishi in the 1930s was initially ignored by the meteorological community because his research papers were published in Esperanto rather than English. 
  • The concept of the Great Terrestrial Stilling—that average wind speeds are decreasing—is countered by newer data suggesting a 'great terrestrial re-acceleration,' with one proposed cause for the stilling being the reduced temperature differential between the equator and the poles due to global warming. 
  • The devastating 1945 firebombing of Tokyo using napalm killed an estimated 100,000 people at a cost of only $85,000, significantly less than the estimated $13.5 billion cost to destroy Hiroshima with a single atomic bomb. 
  • Successful shipwreck societies thrive when they adopt cooperative, egalitarian social structures, prioritizing mutual survival over pre-existing hierarchical class differences, as demonstrated by the contrasting fates of the *Invercauld* and *Grafton* crews. 
  • The publication history of William Golding's *Lord of the Flies* illustrates how literary masterpieces can be nearly overlooked due to initial dismissive reviews, only to be championed later by an editor who recognized its merit. 
  • Simon Winchester is planning his next book on the history of silver, which will explore its global impact from ancient mining sites to modern market manipulations like those involving the Hunt brothers. 

Segments

Author’s Writing Routine
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(00:03:11)
  • Key Takeaway: Simon Winchester prefers writing late into the evening rather than early in the morning.
  • Summary: Winchester discusses his writing routine, contrasting it with Asimov and mentioning Jared Diamond’s analog methods. He writes until late evening, often until 8 PM.
Origin of The Breath of the Gods
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(00:04:41)
  • Key Takeaway: The book was inspired by research suggesting a ‘Great Terrestrial Stilling’—a decrease in average wind speed in Europe.
  • Summary: Winchester explains that he decided to write about wind after reading about the counterintuitive finding that average wind speeds in mainland Europe were falling, a phenomenon called the Great Terrestrial Stilling.
Climate Change and Wind Speed
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(00:06:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Decreasing wind speed might be caused by the reduced temperature differential between the equator and the poles.
  • Summary: They discuss why wind speeds might be decreasing despite global warming, focusing on the reduced temperature differential between equatorial and polar regions, though Winchester notes this trend might be reversing (’re-acceleration’).
Extreme Weather on Mount Washington
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(00:08:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Mount Washington experiences extreme winds due to the Venturi effect squeezing weather systems between peaks.
  • Summary: Shermer and Winchester discuss the brutal conditions on Mount Washington, where the highest recorded wind speed was 231 mph. The acceleration is caused by the Venturi effect as weather systems approach the New England mountains.
Discovery of the Jet Stream
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(00:12:30)
  • Key Takeaway: The jet stream was discovered by a Japanese researcher who published his findings in Esperanto, leading to a delay in recognition.
  • Summary: Winchester details how Mr. Oishi discovered the jet stream in the 1930s but was ignored until his work was translated from Esperanto into English around 1940.
Jet Stream and Flight Times
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(01:17:49)
  • Key Takeaway: The jet stream explains why eastbound flights are significantly faster than westbound flights.
  • Summary: Shermer notes the common experience of longer flight times going west (e.g., LA to NY) versus east (NY to LA), illustrating the practical impact of the jet stream.
Economics of WWII Bombing
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(01:19:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Firebombing Tokyo with napalm was far cheaper and killed more people than the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
  • Summary: Winchester compares the costs: the atomic bombs cost $13.5 billion each, while destroying Tokyo with napalm cost only $85,000, resulting in greater devastation.
Origin of Kamikaze
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(02:39:49)
  • Key Takeaway: The term ‘kamikaze’ means ‘divine wind,’ referencing historical typhoons that saved Japan from invasion.
  • Summary: Following a discussion on WWII, Winchester confirms the meaning of kamikaze, which Shermer learned from the book.
Language and Wind in China
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(02:49:59)
  • Key Takeaway: The Chinese character for wind (‘feng’) contains an insect radical due to the historical association of wind with insect swarms.
  • Summary: Winchester explains how ancient beliefs are embedded in language, noting the structure of the Chinese character for wind.
Castle Bravo Fallout on Lucky Dragon 5
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(02:59:19)
  • Key Takeaway: The 1954 Castle Bravo test fallout contaminated a Japanese fishing vessel, leading to the first known cases of radiation sickness observed by doctors.
  • Summary: Winchester recounts the tragic story of the Lucky Dragon 5, whose crew ingested radioactive ‘snow’ and suffered severe radiation poisoning, highlighting the ghastly nature of nuclear weapons.
Francis Galton’s Legacy
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(03:05:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Galton invented key statistical concepts like regression to the mean, but his eugenics views taint his legacy.
  • Summary: They discuss Galton’s contributions to statistics (correlation coefficient, regression to the mean) and his recommendation on how to cut a cake to keep it fresh.
The Dust Bowl Shelterbelts
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(03:41:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The Roosevelt administration planted millions of trees (shelterbelts) to stop wind erosion during the Dust Bowl.
  • Summary: Winchester details the massive tree-planting effort by the CCC to slow the winds that were blowing topsoil across the prairies, an effort that successfully mitigated the disaster.
Polynesian Navigation Mastery
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(03:54:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Polynesian navigators could cross vast ocean distances without modern aids, using wave patterns, stars, and birds.
  • Summary: The discussion praises Polynesian navigators, exemplified by Mau Piaulu guiding the Hokule’a canoe from Hawaii to Tahiti using only traditional methods.
Pitcairn Island Legal Saga
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(03:58:58)
  • Key Takeaway: Pitcairn islanders were prosecuted by the UK for traditional sexual practices, leading them to build their own prison.
  • Summary: Winchester recounts the story of Constable Greene reporting the islanders, the subsequent trial, and the men serving their sentences by locking themselves in a self-built prison.
Lessons from Shipwreck Societies
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(04:10:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Successful survival groups on shipwrecks prioritized mild hierarchy, cooperation, and egalitarian food sharing over prior class structures.
  • Summary: Referencing Christakis’s work, they discuss what made shipwreck survivors thrive or fail, concluding that cooperation and abandoning rigid hierarchy were key factors applicable to future colonies like Mars.
Survival Factors in Shipwreck Societies
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(01:11:54)
  • Key Takeaway: Successful survival in isolated groups depended on mild hierarchy, cooperation, and altruism, rather than brutality.
  • Summary: Analysis of planned and unplanned societies following shipwrecks, noting that successful groups shared food equitably, cared for the sick, and integrated survivors into cooperative structures, abandoning prior class differences.
Invercargill vs. Grafton Outcomes
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(01:13:04)
  • Key Takeaway: The Grafton crew’s cooperative and egalitarian social arrangement led to 100% survival, contrasting sharply with the self-interested Invercargill crew.
  • Summary: A comparison of two shipwrecked groups on Auckland Island in 1864. The Grafton crew cooperated and voted democratically, while the Invercargill crew exhibited an ’every man for himself attitude,’ leading to vastly different rescue rates.
Lord of the Flies Discovery Story
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(01:14:41)
  • Key Takeaway: A manuscript dismissed by a reader as ‘rubbish’ became the classic novel Lord of the Flies due to one editor’s intervention.
  • Summary: Simon Winchester recounts the story of how editor Charles Monteith discovered and championed William Golding’s manuscript, leading to the publication of Lord of the Flies.
Journalism in the Falklands Conflict
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(01:16:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Winchester was arrested and imprisoned in Argentina while reporting on the escalating tensions leading up to the Falklands War.
  • Summary: Winchester details his experiences in the South Atlantic, including receiving a tip about the impending invasion, covering the initial events, and subsequently being arrested, beaten, and held in prison for the duration of the war.
Mutiny on the Bounty Demographics
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(01:20:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The initial unbalanced sex ratio among the mutineers on Tahiti led to violence, jealousy, and the eventual killing of Fletcher Christian.
  • Summary: Discussion of the Mutiny on the Bounty aftermath, focusing on the problems arising from the initial group composition (15 men and 11 women) and the resulting conflict over women.
Spanish Armada and Protestant Wind
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(01:21:39)
  • Key Takeaway: The defeat of the Spanish Armada was attributed to contrary winds, which the British historically dubbed the ‘Protestant wind.’
  • Summary: Winchester explains that his book title, The Breath of the Gods, references the role of contrary winds in defeating the Spanish Armada, a historical event significant in British history.
Winchester’s Next Project: History of Silver
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(01:22:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Simon Winchester plans to write a comprehensive history of silver, covering its mining, economic impact, and figures like the Hunt brothers.
  • Summary: Winchester discusses his upcoming book project focusing on the history of silver, mentioning locations like Bolivia, Germany, and the involvement of the Hunt brothers in the silver market.