The Michael Shermer Show

Heretics: The Scientists Who Were Mocked But Later Proven Right

March 12, 2026

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  • The scientific community often resists revolutionary ideas due to institutional inertia, ego, and career dependence on the status quo, as exemplified by figures like Katalin Karikó and Ignaz Semmelweiss. 
  • The rapid success of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines was dependent on the perseverance of scientists like Karikó, who had previously been marginalized for their unconventional research. 
  • Science is a functional but clunky engine of discovery that requires systemic fine-tuning, particularly by becoming more tolerant of failure and embracing a 'shelving approach' for promising but unproven ideas, rather than immediate rejection or destruction. 
  • A healthy intellectual framework allows for ideas, even fringe ones like alternative pyramid theories, to be kept on a shelf for periodic, non-urgent consideration rather than immediate dismissal. 
  • The conversation concludes with an endorsement of Matt Kaplan's book, *I Told You So! Scientists Who Were Ridiculed, Exiled, and Imprisoned for Being Right*, noting its availability in audiobook format. 
  • The final segment shifts entirely to advertisements for PC Richard and Son mattresses and the Everfit business scaling platform, unrelated to the core topic of 'Heretics: The Scientists Who Were Mocked But Later Proven Right'. 

Segments

Introduction and Guest Background
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(00:02:53)
  • Key Takeaway: Matt Kaplan, science correspondent for The Economist, authored ‘I Told You So!’ detailing scientists ridiculed for correct theories.
  • Summary: Michael Shermer introduces guest Matt Kaplan, a science correspondent for The Economist with two decades of writing experience across various scientific fields. Kaplan’s new book, ‘I Told You So! Scientists Who Were Ridiculed, Exiled, and Imprisoned for Being Right,’ focuses on trail-blazing scientists whose revolutionary ideas were initially dismissed. Kaplan holds degrees in paleontology and science journalism and was a Knight Fellow at MIT and Harvard.
Historical Examples of Scientific Resistance
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(00:09:07)
  • Key Takeaway: Historical figures like Louis Pasteur and Oliver Wendell Holmes faced severe backlash for introducing paradigm-shifting concepts like germ theory and hand hygiene.
  • Summary: The conversation touches on Louis Pasteur hiding negative results from his rabies vaccine trials, which is attributed to the high-pressure environment of Victorian French academia. Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr. was viciously attacked for suggesting doctors spread puerperal (childbed) fever by moving between morgues and maternity wards without washing. Holmes was forced to step away from the topic due to the intensity of the professional attacks from established obstetricians.
COVID Science and mRNA Breakthrough
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(00:11:02)
  • Key Takeaway: The rapid development of the COVID-19 vaccine was an extraordinary feat, heavily reliant on the previously dismissed mRNA research of Katalin Karikó.
  • Summary: The global scientific community excelled at rapidly understanding and developing a vaccine for COVID-19, achieving results in under a year, which was unprecedented. This success was contingent on Katalin Karikó’s foundational work on mRNA technology, which had previously led to her demotion and threats of deportation because the research lacked immediate perceived utility. Karikó and Drew Weissman solved the critical issue of the immune system attacking mRNA by using specific proteins to cloak it.
Paleontology Poster Session Conflict
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(00:17:02)
  • Key Takeaway: A PhD student challenging the methodology of color pigment analysis in fossils faced aggressive, gendered attacks from senior paleontologists at a conference.
  • Summary: A young female PhD student was verbally attacked for presenting poster research that questioned the reliability of determining feather color from fossil pigments, as she could not differentiate color proteins from bacteria after burying samples. This challenge threatened a cherished notion in the community that supported significant research funding, leading to obscenities being shouted at her. The resulting behavior was so disruptive that the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology had to institute formal rules of conduct for future conferences.
Incentives Driving Scientific Conservatism
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(00:25:29)
  • Key Takeaway: The reliance on research grants and the natural human aversion to change cause established scientists to resist falsification of their existing paradigms.
  • Summary: Scientists are often reluctant to accept new ideas that invalidate their established work because their livelihood depends on securing continued research grants based on existing paradigms. Nobel laureate Venki Ramakrishnan suggested that senior scientists eventually need to step down to allow fresh minds to enter and ask challenging questions without entrenched bias. This resistance prevents the healthy skepticism required for scientific progress, leading to an environment where consensus is defended rather than tested.
Replication Crisis and Journal Incentives
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(00:40:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Major journals disincentivize publishing replication studies, even when they falsify prior findings, exacerbating the replication crisis.
  • Summary: The replication crisis is worsened because journals lack the incentive to publish replication studies, as they prioritize novel findings to maintain revenue and prestige. Darrell Bem’s published ESP research, which was later shown to be non-replicable by others, was rejected by the same journal when the replication failed, demonstrating a systemic flaw. Changing funding mechanisms to specifically reward junior researchers for replication work is proposed as a necessary structural fix.
Fraud, Ethics, and Funding Consequences
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(00:46:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Unethical behavior like data massaging (p-hacking) and outright fraud, driven by funding pressure, builds upon itself, wasting millions in subsequent research funding.
  • Summary: Louis Pasteur’s unethical behavior, including destroying the reputation of Henry Toussaint and hiding deaths from his rabies vaccine trials, is cited as historical evidence of fraud driven by competitive pressure. Massaging data to achieve statistical significance (p-hacking) or failing to report negative experiments (file drawer problem) leads to subsequent researchers wasting grant money following up on flawed premises. There is currently little penalty for this scientific misconduct, which Shermer equates to financial crime.
Funding Models: Public vs. Private
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(00:34:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Private funding, exemplified by prize models like the one Paul McCready won, can support high-risk, ‘blue sky’ thinking that traditional public funding often avoids.
  • Summary: Private funding sources, such as the X Prize model, can inject capital into unconventional research that might be too risky for conservative public grant systems like the NSF. Howard Hughes Medical Institute funding allows grantees the time to fail repeatedly, leading to breakthrough ideas rather than just incremental results typical of standard grants. While private funding for ‘wow factor’ projects like de-extinction may seem frivolous, the underlying technology can support critical conservation efforts, like saving endangered rhino species.
Peer Review Flaws and Golden Tickets
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(00:52:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Current peer review is often biased by self-citation and lacks formal compensation, suggesting a need for structural changes like the ‘golden ticket’ system.
  • Summary: Peer review is often compromised when reviewers recognize authors by their heavy self-citation within the bibliography, undermining the intended anonymity. The process relies on uncompensated time, which disadvantages early-career academics who need publications for advancement. The ‘golden ticket’ concept suggests giving committee members one vote to override consensus on a proposal they strongly believe in, fostering novel research despite general lukewarm reception.
Intellectual Shelf Management
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(01:04:35)
  • Key Takeaway: A healthy intellectual approach involves assigning different levels of consideration to various theories, allowing some to be kept on a shelf for infrequent review rather than immediate rejection.
  • Summary: The concept of ‘shelf’ management allows for probabilistic assessment of new findings, where one might assign a low probability (e.g., 8% or 10%) without feeling an immediate existential threat if the finding proves true. This tiered system permits considering alternative theories, such as those regarding the pyramids, without giving them constant, primary attention. Maintaining different levels of consideration for various ideas is deemed a healthy intellectual practice.
Book Conclusion and Endorsements
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(01:05:21)
  • Key Takeaway: Matt Kaplan’s book, I Told You So!, is recommended for its content and high-quality audiobook narration.
  • Summary: The segment concludes the main discussion, explicitly referencing the book title, ‘I Told You So,’ which aligns with the episode’s theme of scientists being proven right later. The book is recommended as a great read, and listeners interested in audio formats are encouraged to listen to the audiobook due to the reader’s quality. The host offers thanks to Matt Kaplan.
PC Richard and Son Mattress Ad
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(01:05:31)
  • Key Takeaway: PC Richard and Son employs a four-step fitting process for mattresses and is running a Tax Season Savings Event offering discounts and free delivery on qualifying purchases.
  • Summary: PC Richard and Son utilizes a four-step fitting process to ensure new beds fit customers perfectly. Current promotions include up to 35% off select mattresses and bedding, plus an extra 8.875% off hundreds of other items during the tax season event. Free delivery is offered for mattresses priced at $399 and up, excluding Manhattan.
Everfit Business Scaling Testimonial
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(01:06:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Fitness professional Jennifer Geller scaled her business from 30 to over 200 clients using the efficiency of the Everfit platform.
  • Summary: Jennifer Geller, owner of Jet Fitness and a Broadway performer, credits the Everfit platform for enabling significant business growth due to its efficiency. The platform allowed her to manage an expansion from 30 clients to over 200 clients effectively. Coaches interested in scaling their business are directed to visit EverFit.io.