The Michael Shermer Show

DOGE, Government Fraud, and AI Audits

March 14, 2026

Key Takeaways Copied to clipboard!

  • Jeremy Jones's background, spanning from growing up in Luxembourg to experiencing homelessness in Chicago, provides him with a unique perspective on how vastly different systems shape individual lives, informing his work with Rhetor and DOGEai. 
  • The conversation suggests that many political and social problems persist not due to a lack of logical solutions (e.g., border control, economic reform), but due to misaligned political incentives that favor conflict over consensus. 
  • Jones argues that collective or communist systems fail because they cannot account for the 1-5% of sociopaths motivated by power, who, once in control, will actively prevent the return of power to the people. 
  • Inefficient governance in the US is contrasted with highly efficient systems elsewhere, suggesting that aligning incentives, such as tying public school funding to graduate employment rates, could rapidly improve large bureaucratic systems. 
  • The rise of independent journalism, empowered by AI for fact-checking, is seen as a necessary counter to mainstream media bias, though this new landscape introduces risks like the lack of human editorial oversight. 
  • The outsourcing of thought to AI systems poses a significant existential threat to society through the death of critical thinking, as users may accept AI-generated falsehoods without questioning the underlying data quality. 

Segments

Sponsor Ad: Grow Therapy
Copied to clipboard!
(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Grow Therapy connects users with licensed therapists across the U.S., offering flexible scheduling and payment per session, accepting over 100 insurance plans.
  • Summary: Grow Therapy facilitates finding a therapist based on specific needs like insurance, specialty, or availability, with sessions averaging around $21 with insurance. There are no subscriptions or long-term commitments required. Users can start therapy in as little as two days.
Sponsor Ad: Mochi Health
Copied to clipboard!
(00:01:25)
  • Key Takeaway: Mochi Health offers an affordable GLP-1 source for weight loss frustration, providing access to licensed physicians and nutritionists.
  • Summary: Mochi Health addresses frustration with weight loss by providing access to GLP-1 resources. Members gain access to licensed physicians and nutritionists through the service. Further information is available at joinmochi.com.
Critique of White Guilt Narratives
Copied to clipboard!
(00:01:41)
  • Key Takeaway: The perception of pervasive racism and the need for ‘white knights’ stems from a ‘white guilt’ complex that views non-white individuals as inherently disenfranchised and needing help, which is itself considered racist.
  • Summary: The speaker asserts that claims of widespread, random rounding up of minorities are untrue and do not reflect reality. This narrative is often driven by liberal white guilt, which frames interactions as power dynamics requiring intervention. This underlying assumption of inherent victimhood for ’the disenfranchised poor brown person’ is identified as problematic.
Assessment of Trump’s Presidency
Copied to clipboard!
(00:02:09)
  • Key Takeaway: Regardless of political alignment, Donald Trump’s presidency is viewed as highly consequential, marked by drastic crime reduction and historically low border engagements during his term.
  • Summary: The speaker predicts that Trump will be considered one of the top three most consequential presidents in American history based on his second term’s impact alone. Key achievements cited include drastically reduced crime rates and the lowest border engagements ever recorded. These results are contrasted with the lack of nationwide unrest following the shooting incident mentioned.
Human Nature vs. Progressive Policy
Copied to clipboard!
(00:02:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Progressive policies often fail because they do not account for human nature, specifically the 1-5% of sociopaths motivated by power who will abuse collective systems.
  • Summary: Collective systems cannot account for the small percentage of individuals motivated purely by power who will exploit the system. Once in power, these individuals understand that relinquishing control means losing power permanently. This dynamic leads to the consolidation of authority to maintain control.
Sponsor Ad: Skeptic Society Support
Copied to clipboard!
(00:03:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Support for The Michael Shermer Show and Skeptic Society/Magazine can be provided via subscription or donation, as they operate as a 501c3 nonprofit science education organization.
  • Summary: Listeners can support the work of Skeptic Society and Skeptic Magazine through subscriptions or direct donations. The organization functions as a 501c3 nonprofit dedicated to science education. Subscriptions are available at skeptic.com/subscribe and donations at skeptic.com/donate.
Introduction of Jeremy Jones and Rhetor
Copied to clipboard!
(00:03:48)
  • Key Takeaway: Jeremy Jones co-founded Rhetor, an AI strategy company, which launched DOGEai, an autonomous AI watchdog on X focused on restoring accountability in the ruling class.
  • Summary: Rhetor provides AI-powered intelligence and strategy for political campaigns, advocacy groups, and government departments. DOGEai, the company’s public good initiative, monitors government activity and has attracted attention from high-profile figures like Elon Musk and members of Congress. Jones’s background includes contrasting experiences in Luxembourg and Chicago, highlighting systemic differences.
Jones’s Luxembourg/Chicago Background
Copied to clipboard!
(00:04:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Jeremy Jones moved from a relatively comfortable upbringing in Luxembourg, where he had private transport, to Chicago at age 12, a transition facilitated by his mother’s decision to relocate permanently for his education.
  • Summary: Luxembourg, having the world’s highest GDP per capita, provided a comfortable middle-class life, including paid taxi service for school transport. Jones moved to Chicago at 12, initially not speaking English, but immediately felt a sense of belonging upon seeing people who looked like him. His mother later sold everything and moved back to Chicago to support his decision to stay in the U.S.
Luxembourg’s Progressive/Conservative Dichotomy
Copied to clipboard!
(00:09:29)
  • Key Takeaway: Luxembourg exhibits a policy dichotomy, being progressive in social policy while maintaining extremely conservative criteria for citizenship, including passing a difficult speech test in the national language, Luxembourgish.
  • Summary: Luxembourg’s national language is French due to its workforce, but the unspoken national language is Luxembourgish, which is required for citizenship. Citizenship requires five years of property ownership, five consecutive years of residency, and passing a speech test in Luxembourgish. This contrasts with the country’s progressive policy stance.
Incentives Driving Political Gridlock
Copied to clipboard!
(00:11:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Political incentives often favor maintaining partisan issues like abortion or the border, as removing these highly emotional topics eliminates leverage points for political maneuvering.
  • Summary: Issues like voter ID requirements, which enjoy 90% bipartisan agreement, remain unresolved because removing them eliminates a point of contention for political fighting. If logical, easy-to-solve issues are removed from the table, politicians lose the ability to rally support through conflict. This dynamic explains why issues with clear solutions often remain partisan talking points.
Immigration Fairness and Logic
Copied to clipboard!
(00:14:21)
  • Key Takeaway: The current immigration system is perceived as unfair because individuals who follow the arduous legal process (like marrying a citizen) see others bypass it, leading to a tipping point where the sheer volume overwhelms public acceptance.
  • Summary: The speaker contrasts his wife’s difficult, lawyer-assisted legal immigration process with the ease of illegal border crossings, which many liberal friends concede is unfair. While many undocumented immigrants may be good workers, the inability to know who is entering the country poses a significant risk. The solution involves a complete overhaul of legal immigration alongside border security.
Dangers of Darien Strait Migration
Copied to clipboard!
(00:16:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The journey across the Darien Strait is extremely perilous, with cartels exploiting migrants by kidnapping children for ransom, and over 50% of those attempting the journey dying before reaching Mexico.
  • Summary: The journey to the U.S. border is arduous, especially through the Darien Strait, a roadless jungle strip. Cartels wait there to extort migrants, often taking 10-20% of their money or threatening family back home. More than half of the people attempting this journey perish before they even reach Mexico.
ICE Enforcement and Media Narrative
Copied to clipboard!
(00:20:22)
  • Key Takeaway: The claim that ICE randomly rounds up ‘brown people’ walking down the street is false; enforcement operations typically target individuals with existing deportation orders, and media coverage of these actions varies drastically based on the administration in power.
  • Summary: The notion of random sweeps is dismissed as untrue, contrasting with reports showing ICE operations are often concentrated in cooperating jurisdictions like Texas. Under the Obama administration, similar tactics were heralded by CNN as effective crime control, whereas current actions are framed negatively. The speaker suggests the only plausible solution is deporting everyone here illegally and establishing a queue for legal re-entry.
Organized Protest vs. Spontaneous Action
Copied to clipboard!
(00:24:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Interfering with federal enforcement actions, even under the guise of ‘peaceful protesting’ organized via platforms like Signal, constitutes breaking the law and is distinct from legitimate, spontaneous protest.
  • Summary: The speaker criticizes protesters who escalate actions by blocking streets and confronting armed officers, arguing that personal responsibility should apply. Progressivism controls reality by controlling language, labeling disruptive actors as ’legal observers’ to force opponents to defend against the label. The reality is that these organized actions, often led by politicians, are illegal interference.
Impact of Paid Agitators
Copied to clipboard!
(00:26:28)
  • Key Takeaway: The presence of paid agitators (10-30% of protesters) trained year-round provides cover for others who simply enjoy causing trouble, exacerbating social unrest.
  • Summary: If a significant portion of protesters are paid agitators receiving high hourly wages, it enables others to participate in disruptive behavior under the guise of legitimate protest. This is compounded by cultural Marxism being taught in teachers’ unions, leading to low educational outcomes (e.g., 30% reading level).
Canada’s Immigration Incentives
Copied to clipboard!
(00:28:22)
  • Key Takeaway: Canada imported immigrants primarily to sustain its welfare state through increased tax revenue due to low birth rates, failing to account for the cultural differences between native citizens and those from low-trust societies.
  • Summary: Canada’s decision to import people was driven by the need for tax revenue to support its welfare system as its native population stopped having children. Economically, people are treated as statistics, but culturally, immigrants from low-trust societies interact differently with government structures than native Canadians. This influx creates challenges because newcomers may view government interaction through a lens of expected extortion rather than rule of law.
Low-Trust Society Interactions
Copied to clipboard!
(00:30:11)
  • Key Takeaway: In low-trust societies, everything is negotiable, cash is preferred over cards to avoid overbilling, and police interactions are often extortionary rather than regulatory.
  • Summary: When visiting low-trust societies, one must barter for prices, use cash, and anticipate police stops being attempts at extortion rather than ticketing. The speaker refused to lie on paperwork to receive COVID relief funds, demonstrating an American standard of integrity that contrasts with the norms of low-trust environments. This lack of checks and balances in U.S. systems makes fraud easier than compliance.
Government Waste and AI Auditing
Copied to clipboard!
(00:32:05)
  • Key Takeaway: AI tools like DOGEai are necessary because the U.S. system lacks internal checks and balances, evidenced by HHS data showing random residents billing billions annually without oversight.
  • Summary: The speaker highlights staggering waste, fraud, and abuse in systems like Medicare, where AI analysis flagged $37 billion in potential fraud from just 173 providers in a small sample. AI functions by using detailed instructions (the prompt) against high-quality data (the ingredients) to identify anomalies that human systems miss. This capability is crucial because committing fraud is often easier than complying with government regulations.
Origin of DOGEai Watchdog
Copied to clipboard!
(00:45:27)
  • Key Takeaway: DOGEai was created as a public good by Rhetor’s co-founders to empower the governed by using AI to analyze complex legislation that non-technical politicians cannot fully comprehend.
  • Summary: The founders realized that long bills are written and controlled by unelected bureaucrats because politicians cannot read or understand them, undermining consent of the governed. They developed AI to analyze bills, remove ‘wokeness,’ and create a public watchdog on X. The viral success confirmed the business model for Rhetor.
Rhetor’s Dual Business Model
Copied to clipboard!
(00:41:05)
  • Key Takeaway: Rhetor serves political campaigns by providing real-time media monitoring, sentiment scoring, and superior polling data derived from social media, and also offers forward-deployed engineering to automate organizational bottlenecks like fraud detection.
  • Summary: The customer-facing side alerts political figures within five minutes of media mentions and provides sentiment analysis, offering more truthful polling data than traditional methods due to larger, more candid datasets. The second side involves building custom AI systems to alleviate organizational bottlenecks, such as using AI to analyze massive datasets to flag government fraud.
Minneapolis Fraud Exposure
Copied to clipboard!
(00:48:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The fact that government fraud in cities like Minneapolis only stops when exposed by young individuals with iPhones, rather than internal oversight, proves the system is broken and that knowing about fraud is not the same as stopping it.
  • Summary: The counterargument that fraud is known but ignored is insufficient; the key question is why action wasn’t taken until external pressure mounted. The speaker notes that in Michigan, legitimate caregivers cannot bill Medicaid while non-existent adult foster care homes bill millions, suggesting fraud is easier than compliance. This failure of internal accountability is what drives young activists to expose the issues.
Education Reform Proposal
Copied to clipboard!
(00:52:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Education should focus solely on teaching critical thinking skills for the first 14 years, followed by two years of mandatory military service for discipline, before students take on massive, non-forgivable college debt.
  • Summary: The current system teaches ‘what to think’ for tests, leading to incoherent adult logic, whereas Luxembourg emphasizes individualized learning focused on teaching ‘how to think.’ High school should be shortened to two years focused on critical engagement with ideas, followed by military service for discipline. This structure would better prepare students before they incur massive, non-dischargeable student loans for majors that do not lead to employment.
Public vs. Private Education Trust
Copied to clipboard!
(00:56:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Trusting the government (‘public schools’) to educate children is inherently problematic, and market forces would likely drive down the cost and increase the quality of private alternatives if public funding were removed.
  • Summary: The speaker prefers private education models like Montessori because he does not trust the government to educate his children. He argues that if market competition were allowed, alternatives like Khan Academy would proliferate, driving down costs and increasing quality, contrary to the liberal argument that private education is unaffordable for the masses.
Efficient Governance Example
Copied to clipboard!
(00:57:40)
  • Key Takeaway: American governance is inefficient compared to Luxembourg, where government departments efficiently manage estate liquidation and distribution within days, demonstrating what citizen-aligned efficiency looks like.
  • Summary: In Luxembourg, upon a grandmother’s death, the government liquidated assets and resolved the estate within five days after a two-day communication process with the heir. This contrasts sharply with the U.S. system, where incentives are not aligned with citizen well-being. The speaker suggests that eliminating fraud could fund progressive goals for American citizens.
Efficient Governance Comparison
Copied to clipboard!
(00:57:53)
  • Key Takeaway: Efficient governance, exemplified by a foreign system resolving a mother’s issue in five days, highlights the inefficiency of American bureaucratic processes.
  • Summary: A personal anecdote illustrates a foreign government department head resolving an issue for the speaker’s mother within five days, contrasting sharply with typical American bureaucratic speed. The speaker suggests that American governance does not demonstrate what efficient, citizen-aligned management looks like. This inefficiency is linked to misaligned incentives, such as those within teacher unions, which prevent optimal outcomes despite sufficient funding.
Education Funding and Incentives
Copied to clipboard!
(00:59:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Implementing a strict 80% job placement KPI for public funding eligibility would rapidly force systemic change in higher education.
  • Summary: A proposal suggests that any institution receiving public funding must ensure an 80% benchmark KPI for graduates securing employment within six months to remain eligible for federal funding. This mechanism is proposed as a way to quickly reform large, inefficient systems like universities. The speaker advocates for school choice and giving funding directly to people via vouchers to remove intermediaries like teachers’ unions, forcing public schools to compete.
Iran Protests and Media Coverage
Copied to clipboard!
(01:01:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The lack of mainstream media attention on the Iranian protests is considered telling, especially given prior focus on Palestine.
  • Summary: The speaker expresses concern over the low media coverage of current protests in Iran, noting it is telling compared to extensive coverage of Palestine. Iran is identified as another autocracy where young, industrious people desire capitalist change but are suppressed by zealotry and concentrated power (money and guns). The hope is that the protesters’ will does not break, and back-channeling efforts might lead to an amicable agreement requiring the Ayatollah to step down.
Media Bias and Independent Journalism
Copied to clipboard!
(01:03:01)
  • Key Takeaway: AI can empower independent journalists to fact-check at scale, bypassing the bias inherent in traditional mainstream media editorial gatekeepers.
  • Summary: The common knowledge problem, where autocrats must control speech, is discussed in the context of media trust. While independent journalism is rising, it often lacks rigorous fact-checking teams. AI offers a solution by empowering individual journalists to fact-check their explosive stories without human intermediaries who might introduce bias or suppress coverage, restoring accountability.
CBS/Free Press Acquisition Analysis
Copied to clipboard!
(01:06:30)
  • Key Takeaway: Large media acquisitions, like CBS buying The Free Press, typically fail because internal bureaucracy resists the necessary innovation and change.
  • Summary: The acquisition of The Free Press by CBS is viewed as an experiment unlikely to succeed due to entrenched internal bureaucracy resisting change. The speaker suggests it would have been more effective for The Free Press to organically outgrow and capture CBS rather than being acquired. The future of media is seen as direct-to-consumer models (like Nick Shirley’s success) winning over established entities like CBS, whose viewership is aging out.
Nick Shirley’s Viral Reach
Copied to clipboard!
(01:09:08)
  • Key Takeaway: Nick Shirley’s viral video achieved unprecedented reach (500 million views on X alone) due to direct distribution, dwarfing traditional media metrics.
  • Summary: Nick Shirley’s December video garnered 500 million views on X, contributing to 6.9 billion aggregate mentions across media channels by the end of January. This direct reach is considered unbeatable by traditional media structures, especially for a young, competent creator. The risk involved in this independent journalism is severe, requiring 24/7 security due to death threats against him.
Political Violence and Ideological Extremism
Copied to clipboard!
(01:10:27)
  • Key Takeaway: Ideological frameworks that justify stopping perceived existential threats (like ‘stopping Hitler’) create a dangerous environment where small percentages of extremists may resort to violence against figures like Nick Shirley or Donald Trump.
  • Summary: The speaker contrasts the unified, peaceful national prayer response following Charlie Kirk’s shooting with the violent actions taken by some against perceived ideological opponents. The core danger lies in the progressive mindset that justifies extreme action if they believe they are stopping an existential evil. This mindset, even among a small fraction of society, leads to real-world threats against individuals like Nick Shirley.
Epstein Files Transparency Fallout
Copied to clipboard!
(01:12:58)
  • Key Takeaway: The release of the Epstein files will likely result in a ’nothing burger’ outcome for justice because the sheer volume of data overwhelms the public, and verifiable proof for prosecution is lacking.
  • Summary: The release of the Epstein files is expected to be a net nothing burger because the data is too large for the public to process, leading to inattention, and the Department of Justice works slowly. Conspiracy theories regarding Mossad or the CIA will persist because there is no government action that can satisfy those predisposed to believing them. The plausible explanation involves Epstein’s role as a middleman procuring items for governments, which is more dangerous than a simple blackmail ring.
Effective Altruism Critique
Copied to clipboard!
(01:19:41)
  • Key Takeaway: Effective Altruism (EA) thinking is dangerous because its reliance on predicting long-term future outcomes is statistically impossible, leading to discounting the present for speculative future benefits.
  • Summary: The flaw in EA is the inability to know future outcomes with certainty, making the discounting of present needs for long-term benefit reckless. This is exemplified by the argument to kill wild predators to save prey, which ignores ecological adaptation and control mechanisms. The bias within EA is highlighted by organizations like Anthropic (tied to EA) refusing work with the Pentagon while contracting with the UK government.
Prediction Markets and Financialization
Copied to clipboard!
(01:23:02)
  • Key Takeaway: The hyper-financialization of everything via prediction markets is detrimental, as time-based events will always feature insiders with asymmetric information frontrunning the market.
  • Summary: Time-based prediction markets, like those on Polymarket, are inherently flawed because an insider with asymmetric information will always frontrun the bet, making the market a sucker’s game. The speaker cites an example of a bet on the exact time of Maduro’s kidnapping being won by someone who then disappeared. The speaker’s contrarian bet is that this hyper-financialization distorts value production and will eventually face regulation.
2028 Political Outlook
Copied to clipboard!
(01:27:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The Republican primary in 2028 is likely to feature J.D. Vance against a radical outsider progressive candidate, as centrism is functionally dead in both parties.
  • Summary: The speaker predicts J.D. Vance will emerge from the Republican primary, representing the new guard over older figures like Marco Rubio, while the Democratic primary will yield an unexpected, extremely radical outsider candidate, similar to the visceral shock of Donald Trump’s first run. Centrist politicians are ineffective because primary turnout incentivizes radicalism, and Democratic centrists often enact hyper-progressive policies once in office.
AI and the Death of Critical Thought
Copied to clipboard!
(01:31:07)
  • Key Takeaway: The primary existential threat posed by AI is not physical destruction but the mass outsourcing of thought, leading to the death of critical thinking skills across society.
  • Summary: The speaker dismisses fears of AI causing mass labor loss or physical extinction, comparing it to past technological shifts. The real danger is the ‘outsourcing of thought,’ where users rely on AI without verifying the quality of the input data (‘ingredients’). This will result in a generation unable to think or write critically, leading to societal failure as people attempt complex tasks without foundational understanding.