#463 — Privatizing the Apocalypse

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• The USAID program DEEP VZN, intended to find and characterize dangerous viruses, was ultimately defanged and formally killed due to concerted, bipartisan pressure stemming from public whistleblowing and advocacy.  Copied to clipboard!
• DEEP VZN's three core components—virus hunting in remote locations, characterization of deadly potential, and public release of pathogen genomes—were deemed to carry an unacceptable risk of accidental or malicious release, potentially leading to civilizational catastrophe.  Copied to clipboard!
• The existence of DEEP VZN, conceived by well-intentioned actors, serves as a critical warning that in the near future, thousands of individuals will possess the capability to devise and implement plans with similar or greater existential risk potential.  Copied to clipboard!

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Rob Reid’s Background and Bio-Risk Focus

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(00:00:36)

• Key Takeaway: Rob Reid’s focus on bio-risk originated from writing a science fiction novel involving synthetic biology to create an omnicidal pathogen.
• Summary: Rob Reid’s full-time job is in Venture Capital with Chris Anderson, but his voluntary public service has centered on bio-risk for a decade. His initial concern stemmed from researching a subplot for his sci-fi novel, ‘After On,’ which featured a cult using synthetic biology to engineer a world-ending pathogen. This research led him to interview scientists and eventually launch the ‘After On’ podcast to explore the topic further.

Introduction to Deep Vision Program

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(00:03:17)

• Key Takeaway: Deep Vision was a $125 million, five-year USAID program authorized to conduct high-risk virology research, described by one expert as having the potential to ‘cancel civilization.’
• Summary: Following a prior extensive podcast discussion on bio-risk, Rob Reid learned about the Deep Vision project while presenting to senior biosecurity officials in Washington. The program, housed within USAID, had a $125 million budget over five years. Reid decided to blow the whistle on the project due to its extreme potential for catastrophic risk, despite being initiated with the best intentions.

DEEP VZN Component 1: Virus Hunting

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(00:05:36)

• Key Takeaway: Virus hunting involved collecting approximately 10,000 undiscovered viruses from remote locations like bat caves and bringing them into ’leak-prone’ laboratories in dense population centers.
• Summary: The first component of Deep Vision was virus hunting, targeting remote areas like bushmeat markets and bat caves across a dozen developing countries. The goal was to extract and bring thousands of unknown viruses into laboratories, which are inherently imperfect containment vessels. An isolated bat cave is considered a safer location for a pandemic-grade pathogen than a lab staffed by imperfect humans, given the history of lab leaks.

DEEP VZN Component 2: Characterization Dangers

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(00:07:14)

• Key Takeaway: Characterization experiments to identify pandemic-grade viruses are dangerous because the resulting knowledge (e.g., vaccine candidates) is not actionable without human trials, yet publicizing a deadly pathogen increases global study and leak risk.
• Summary: The second step involved characterizing the discovered viruses to determine which were most likely to be pandemic-grade weapons. While monitoring interfaces is useful, extracting and studying these viruses in labs creates risk without providing immediate public health benefits, as vaccines cannot be tested for efficacy without infecting volunteers. Publicizing a highly dangerous pathogen ensures it will be studied broadly in lower biosecurity labs (BSL2 or BSL3), increasing the chance of a leak.

DEEP VZN Component 3: Public Genome Release

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(00:09:47)

• Key Takeaway: The third, most alarming component planned to publish the genomes of the deadliest viruses globally, effectively arming an estimated 30,000 unvetted individuals with the capability to synthesize them.
• Summary: The final goal was to publish the list of the most deadly viruses and their corresponding genomes to the entire world. This knowledge could be used by approximately 30,000 people globally who possess the skills for viral rescue or reverse genetics. This action would grant the killing power of a nuclear arsenal to thousands of unvetted strangers, including those in unstable regions.

Whistleblowing Efforts and Program Defeat

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(00:11:07)

• Key Takeaway: A coalition of thinkers, including Tristan Harris and Daniel Schmachtenberger, mobilized political pressure from both parties, leading to the program being defanged and eventually formally killed in September 2023.
• Summary: After the initial podcast effort targeting Samantha Power did not immediately succeed, Daniel Schmachtenberger and Tristan Harris organized a brainstorm that led to sustained pressure. This effort involved reaching out to figures like Chelsea Clinton and engaging bipartisan politicians, including Senators Lindsey Graham, James Risch, and Rand Paul. This pressure resulted in the program being effectively defanged, and ultimately, formally terminated in September 2023.

Comparison to Other Biosecurity Efforts

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(00:15:59)

• Key Takeaway: While other entities like the Wuhan Institute of Virology conduct virus collection (e.g., PREDICT), no other known program approached the scale or inherent risk profile of Deep Vision.
• Summary: The Wuhan Institute of Virology has a long history of collecting coronaviruses, and the prior USAID program PREDICT discovered over 1,200 novel mammalian viruses. However, Reid asserts that no other virus hunting program reached the scale of Deep Vision. The risk landscape has worsened since 2021, as fewer entities now possess the capability to conceive of and fund such a high-risk project compared to the coming era where thousands will have similar destructive potential.

COVID-19 as a Dress Rehearsal Failure

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(00:17:17)

• Key Takeaway: COVID-19 was a ‘remarkably benign’ infectious agent compared to potential engineered pathogens, and humanity’s failure to manage it suggests a catastrophic outcome if a far deadlier pathogen emerges.
• Summary: COVID-19, while highly infectious, was not super lethal, making it a mild dress rehearsal for a truly awful pandemic scenario. If seven highly lethal pathogens emerged simultaneously from 20 airports, the resulting societal collapse would occur not just from fatalities, but from frontline workers refusing to risk their lives for low wages, shutting down essential services like food supply and law enforcement. The fact that only a handful of entities could conceive of Deep Vision in 2021 highlights the danger of a future where thousands can devise worse ideas.