Making Sense with Sam Harris

#458 — The Bulwark Against MAGA

February 11, 2026

Key Takeaways Copied to clipboard!

  • The shift in Republican politics is driven by a toxic, symbiotic 'Republican triangle of doom' where voters, right-wing infotainment media, and elected officials reinforce an anti-Trump-critic stance. 
  • Many otherwise rational conservatives rationalize support for Trump by focusing on specific policy agreements or by viewing the political landscape through a lens of tribalism and social pressure, often compartmentalizing his more dangerous actions. 
  • The current media ecosystem rewards extreme, conspiratorial content (like that from Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes) because it is more engaging and effective at recruiting new adherents than traditional, policy-focused conservatism. 
  • Voters exist in distinct informational worlds, with varying levels of awareness regarding controversial political figures like Candace Owens or Nick Fuentes, illustrating the segmented nature of the Trump coalition. 
  • Political alignment often relies on social norming, where individuals adopt views based on trusted peers or local influencers rather than deep, independent research, similar to how casual fans approach a Super Bowl. 
  • The discussion raises serious concerns about J.D. Vance's political transformation, questioning whether his current stance is driven by opportunism or deeper, potentially sinister, ideological commitments. 

Segments

Introduction and Guest Welcome
Copied to clipboard!
(00:00:06)
  • Key Takeaway: The Making Sense podcast is entirely subscriber-supported, as it does not run advertisements.
  • Summary: Sam Harris opens the episode by noting that listeners hearing the free portion are only getting the first part of the conversation. Full access requires a subscription at SamHarris.org. The show relies entirely on subscriber support because it avoids running ads. Harris welcomes Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller.
The Bulwark Origin Story
Copied to clipboard!
(00:02:43)
  • Key Takeaway: The Bulwark originated as an aggregator website for Never Trump conservatives, evolving into a media entity after the Weekly Standard ceased publication.
  • Summary: Tim Miller pitched the idea for The Bulwark as a Drudge Report-style aggregator for anti-Trump conservatives around 2017-2018. The name ‘Bulwark’ refers to a nautical fortification built between oneself and danger. When the Weekly Standard shut down for being insufficiently pro-Trump, Miller and colleagues transitioned the concept into a full media operation.
Guest Political Biographies
Copied to clipboard!
(00:04:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Both Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell transitioned to their current roles after careers in Republican politics and communications, catalyzed by their opposition to Trump.
  • Summary: Tim Miller was a ‘campaign gypsy’ who worked on multiple Republican presidential campaigns, including McCain (2008) and Romney (2012), before becoming a spokesperson for the proto-Lincoln Project group, Our Principles PAC. Sarah Longwell, a policy and communications professional, began conducting focus groups which revealed a massive disconnect between D.C. theories and actual voter sentiment regarding Trump.
Explaining Trump Support Psychology
Copied to clipboard!
(00:09:05)
  • Key Takeaway: Supporters rationalize allegiance to Trump through powerful tribalism, the desire for access to power, and the consumption of propaganda, often ignoring or compartmentalizing dangerous behavior.
  • Summary: Rationalization is a powerful psychological defense mechanism that allows people to maintain support even when faced with contradictory evidence. Tim Miller cited an example of a friend prioritizing social acceptance over confronting Trump’s actions. Sarah Longwell introduced the ‘Republican triangle of doom,’ describing the reinforcement loop between voters, conservative media, and GOP officials.
Hypocrisy and Cognitive Dissonance
Copied to clipboard!
(00:18:29)
  • Key Takeaway: The right-of-center political sphere has fundamentally changed the physics of reputation management, where hypocrisy regarding issues like the Hunter Biden laptop is ignored if the perceived threat from the left (e.g., ‘woke’ issues) is prioritized.
  • Summary: The willingness to overlook Trump’s corruption while hyper-focusing on perceived Biden corruption demonstrates a massive double standard. Once supporters rationalize supporting Trump after January 6th, engaging with subsequent hypocrisies becomes pointless, as they are already ‘in the club.’ Figures like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are viewed as greater evils than the actual left because they directly challenge the narrative.
Ben Shapiro’s Position
Copied to clipboard!
(00:23:32)
  • Key Takeaway: Ben Shapiro’s continued support for Trumpism, despite his previous principled stands, is largely attributed to protecting the business model of the Daily Wire and succumbing to audience pressure.
  • Summary: Shapiro is seen as knowing better, having previously written against going down the road with Trump, but his audience demands Trump affirmation. His decision to support Trump post-January 6th created a permission structure for other conservatives to do the same. His current critiques of the left are seen as insufficient justification for overlooking Trump’s actions, especially given his initial strong condemnation of January 6th.
January 6th Memory-Holing
Copied to clipboard!
(00:27:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Many Trump supporters have pivoted to contradictory interpretations of January 6th, such as viewing it as a false flag or a non-event, to rationalize continued support after initially acknowledging its severity.
  • Summary: Trump weaponized the lie that the election was rigged even before Election Day, which was a provocation to political violence. After the event, the narrative shifted to downplay the severity, suggesting no one’s life was in danger or that Antifa was involved. This pattern of ‘it wasn’t us, it was worse on the other side, or it was good actually’ allows for cognitive closure.
Candace Owens’ Radicalization
Copied to clipboard!
(00:32:58)
  • Key Takeaway: Candace Owens is viewed as a highly effective recruiter for the America First wing, infecting younger voters with extreme, entertaining conspiracy theories that function as political soap operas.
  • Summary: Owens, along with Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, represents the anti-Israel/anti-Semitic wing of the movement, attracting young audiences through entertainment and feuds. Her willingness to allege that Charlie Kirk’s widow was complicit in his death shows a level of conspiracy theorizing that is intoxicating to contrarian audiences. This ‘vice signaling’ acts as an antidote to perceived left-wing virtue signaling.
Tucker Carlson’s Future Trajectory
Copied to clipboard!
(00:48:23)
  • Key Takeaway: Tucker Carlson is likely to continue consolidating power within the America First wing, potentially through a presidential run or by aligning with rising figures like J.D. Vance, whose success he is invested in.
  • Summary: Carlson’s journey is seen as a descent from promising journalist to an ‘atrocity’ through pandering and audience capture. His close relationship with his brother Buckley, who espouses extreme conspiracy theories, suggests Tucker plans to continue on this radical trajectory. Carlson and Owens are strategically combining audiences to build an influential wing of the Republican Party, even if the voters they rely on are extreme.
Voter Information Worlds
Copied to clipboard!
(00:55:36)
  • Key Takeaway: Voters’ political knowledge is highly segmented, with many Republicans being unaware of figures like Nick Fuentes, illustrating the diverse information ecosystems within the Trump base.
  • Summary: Listeners learn that political understanding varies widely; some voters are deeply immersed in figures like Candace Owens, while others have never heard of figures like Nick Fuentes. This highlights the different segments required to build a political coalition around Trumpism. The process of how voters absorb information often involves relying on trusted local sources rather than direct engagement with fringe media.
Political Social Norming Analogy
Copied to clipboard!
(00:56:34)
  • Key Takeaway: Trump achieved social norming among the general populace through repeated exposure, mirroring how casual observers adopt superficial information to participate in events like the Super Bowl.
  • Summary: The mechanism of social norming is identified as key to Trump’s acceptance among certain groups, where exposure normalizes behavior or ideology. This process is compared to casual Super Bowl attendees quickly grabbing a piece of trivia to participate in social gatherings. This analogy suggests that for many Americans, political decisions are made based on minimal, socially reinforced data points.
Assessing J.D. Vance
Copied to clipboard!
(00:57:19)
  • Key Takeaway: J.D. Vance is perceived as having undergone a significant, potentially sinister transformation from an ethical commentator to a figure whose commitment to power acquisition is concerning.
  • Summary: The speaker notes Vance’s initial appeal as a smart commentator who understood ignored parts of America. This perception has shifted to viewing him as a potentially sinister figure, raising questions about whether his current actions stem from pure opportunism or unmasked ideological commitments. The segment concludes by posing a direct hypothetical about the danger of a President Vance succeeding Trump.