Making Sense with Sam Harris

#440 — A World in Crisis

October 24, 2025

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  • Robert Kaplan's long-held prognosis of global fragmentation and disorder, first articulated in his 1990s work like "The Coming Anarchy," has held up remarkably well, contrasting sharply with the optimistic liberal humanism predicted by policy elites at the time. 
  • The current global situation is analogous to the Weimar Republic (1918-1933)—a 'global Weimar' characterized by technological shrinkage bringing nations into close, anxious proximity without a unifying control structure, leading to permanent crisis and paralysis rather than a specific authoritarian outcome like Hitler's rise. 
  • The primacy of order over freedom is essential for any functioning society, as demonstrated by the founders of the American Republic, and durable democratic institutions are more critical for stability than democratic ideals alone, especially when attempting to build governance from scratch in post-colonial states. 

Segments

Podcast Introduction and Support
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(00:00:06)
  • Key Takeaway: The Making Sense podcast relies entirely on subscriber support as it runs no advertisements.
  • Summary: Listeners hearing the introductory segment are informed they are not on the subscriber feed and must subscribe at SamHarris.org for full episodes. The podcast maintains an ad-free format, making listener financial support the sole means of continuation. This structure supports the production of the Making Sense with Sam Harris content.
Kaplan’s Early Work and Career
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(00:00:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Robert Kaplan transitioned from conventional journalism to incorporating philosophy, geography, and history after finding narrow reporting insufficient.
  • Summary: Sam Harris cites Kaplan’s influential 1994 Atlantic article, “The Coming Anarchy,” as a career-defining piece that was widely circulated via photocopying in the pre-internet era. Kaplan began his career at the Rutland Daily Herald before traveling extensively, seeking deeper context than standard reporting provided. His editor, William Whitworth, encouraged his interdisciplinary writing style.
Prognosis Review: Anarchy Holds Up
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(00:03:10)
  • Key Takeaway: Kaplan’s 1990s predictions of global fragmentation and disorder, contrary to the era’s belief in universal liberal humanism, have largely proven accurate.
  • Summary: Kaplan’s earlier work foresaw disorder arising from environmental concerns and demographic trends, contrasting with the policy elite’s expectation of widespread democracy post-Cold War. He noted that his predictions regarding anarchy in places like Sierra Leone foreshadowed later collapses in Libya, Syria, and Iraq. The essay “Was Democracy Just a Moment” (1997) further challenged the notion that history had ended.
Environment and Demographics Centrality
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(00:07:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Unstabilized population growth in the developing world, coupled with environmental degradation (climate change), creates resource scarcity driving urbanization and migration crises.
  • Summary: Kaplan maintains that the natural environment remains the number one security issue of the 21st century, manifesting as climate change. Climbing populations in Africa face diminishing water and soil nutrients, forcing rural populations into unsustainable urban slums. This demographic pressure is projected to fuel decades of migration into Europe, consequently fueling European populism.
Global Weimar Analogy Explained
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(00:10:26)
  • Key Takeaway: The world mirrors the Weimar Republic’s 15 years (1918-1933) because technology has shrunk geography, creating a claustrophobic closeness where no single entity is in control, leading to permanent paralysis.
  • Summary: The Weimar analogy focuses not on Hitler, but on the period of constant crisis and weak governance that preceded him, caused by overcorrecting against past tyranny. Technology, including air travel and unified financial markets, has made the world globally interconnected yet ungovernable in the post-Cold War era. This state is defined by mutual influence without centralized authority.
Order Precedes Freedom
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(00:13:47)
  • Key Takeaway: The American founders balanced the fear of tyranny with the fear of chaos, recognizing that without order, freedom cannot exist for anyone.
  • Summary: The debate between Hamilton and Jefferson centered on establishing a republic—a limited democracy—to avoid both autocracy and anarchy, drawing lessons from the English Revolution. Anarchy, experienced firsthand in places like Sierra Leone and Iraq, is the most frightening political reality. Democratic institutions are fundamentally more important than democratic ideals for establishing lasting order.
Institutional Strength in America
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(00:16:58)
  • Key Takeaway: America’s greatness stems from its deep institutional separation of powers at federal, state, and local levels, a structure largely inherited from 17th-century England.
  • Summary: Political scientist Samuel Huntington argued that America’s strength lies in its institutions, not just its people’s character. This separation of powers across multiple governmental tiers provides resilience, which is currently imperiled by challenges to these structures. Many developing nations must build these institutions from scratch, unlike the US, which inherited a foundational framework.
Putin as Dangerous Russian Leader
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(00:19:15)
  • Key Takeaway: Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous Russian leader since Stalin because he governs alone and is a risk-taker, unlike the cautious, collegial Politburo that ruled during most of the Cold War.
  • Summary: The Soviet Politburo, composed of Stalin’s cautious survivors, practiced collegial rule, making them predictable and conservative adversaries. Putin governs as a singular authority surrounded by oligarchs and intelligence figures, creating instability should he disappear. This personalistic rule contrasts sharply with the previous era’s cautious leadership.
Ukraine War Reveals Russian Weakness
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(00:21:28)
  • Key Takeaway: The invasion of Ukraine exposed Russia’s critical failure in military logistics, despite prior successes in smaller, air-dominant conflicts like Syria.
  • Summary: Before the 2022 invasion, Russia appeared invincible based on its successes in Syria and Africa, leading Putin to believe conquest would be easy. However, large-scale operations require robust logistics—maintenance, food supply, and coordination—which Russia demonstrably lacked. Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian war machine reveals the country is fundamentally in decline.