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[00:00:00.320 --> 00:00:02.640] This is where projects come to life.
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[00:00:33.360 --> 00:00:39.440] You're listening to the Skeptics Guide to the Universe: your escape to reality.
[00:00:40.400 --> 00:00:44.080] Hello, and welcome to The Skeptics Guide to the Universe.
[00:00:55.040 --> 00:01:00.960] Today is Sunday, August 18th, 2024, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.
[00:01:04.160 --> 00:01:06.000] Joining me this week are Bob Novella.
[00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:07.040] Hey, everybody.
[00:01:08.960 --> 00:01:10.400] Kara Santa Maria.
[00:01:10.400 --> 00:01:11.200] Howdy.
[00:01:12.800 --> 00:01:13.840] Jay Novella.
[00:01:13.840 --> 00:01:14.720] Hey, guys.
[00:01:16.320 --> 00:01:17.600] Evan Bernstein.
[00:01:17.600 --> 00:01:19.360] Hello, Chicago.
[00:01:20.320 --> 00:01:21.520] And George Ronald.
[00:01:21.760 --> 00:01:23.040] Chicago.
[00:01:23.360 --> 00:01:24.720] Chicago.
[00:01:24.720 --> 00:01:26.160] Look so engrossed.
[00:01:26.160 --> 00:01:31.520] We are live from Chicago doing counter-programming to the DNC.
[00:01:33.440 --> 00:01:34.960] We do the best programming.
[00:01:34.960 --> 00:01:37.680] Our podcast is the best podcast ever.
[00:01:39.040 --> 00:01:42.720] It's the most podcast ever recorded ever by anyone ever.
[00:01:43.040 --> 00:01:48.240] This recording is the 1,000th episode of the SGU.
[00:01:56.080 --> 00:02:00.000] I mean, seriously, did you guys imagine we would be here like almost 20 years later?
[00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:02.520] You know, we started doing the show.
[00:02:02.520 --> 00:02:04.680] We're like, hey, let's do a podcast.
[00:02:04.680 --> 00:02:09.000] Now we would be sitting here doing our thousandth episode in front of, you know, a few people.
[00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:13.160] You guys should be here a couple people in the audience who came out to see us.
[00:02:13.160 --> 00:02:13.880] What do you think?
[00:02:14.040 --> 00:02:17.080] I mean, what can you, all of it is overwhelming.
[00:02:17.080 --> 00:02:22.600] You know, like as we've been building up to this, like, you know, a couple years ago, we started talking about, oh, my God, we are like, we are.
[00:02:22.920 --> 00:02:24.040] Yeah, it sort of like dawned on us.
[00:02:24.040 --> 00:02:26.120] Like, yeah, in a couple years, they're going to be up to a thousand.
[00:02:26.360 --> 00:02:27.880] We should do something for that.
[00:02:28.200 --> 00:02:32.760] And we can't, all of us collectively can't help but look back and think about it.
[00:02:32.840 --> 00:02:34.200] Like, this is scheduled for us.
[00:02:34.200 --> 00:02:35.960] We do this on Wednesday nights.
[00:02:35.960 --> 00:02:36.520] We record.
[00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:37.640] We talk to each other.
[00:02:38.200 --> 00:02:40.120] And then it's over, and we go on.
[00:02:40.760 --> 00:02:41.400] For you, it's over.
[00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:42.040] For me, it's beginning.
[00:02:42.200 --> 00:02:43.880] I will post-production.
[00:02:44.200 --> 00:02:47.960] The power of this 1,000th episode realization, right?
[00:02:48.360 --> 00:02:49.880] There is a lot of emotion here.
[00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:52.600] This isn't really about science, right?
[00:02:52.600 --> 00:02:54.760] It isn't like a scientific.
[00:02:55.160 --> 00:02:55.960] It's partly about science.
[00:02:56.120 --> 00:02:57.720] The show is about science.
[00:02:58.440 --> 00:03:05.400] You know, the thing that we set out to do when we started this show was to help people, to educate people, to change their lives.
[00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:12.840] Critical thinking, scientific literacy, and then along the way, we picked up Media Savvy as well.
[00:03:13.720 --> 00:03:15.560] Those are the three legs of the stool.
[00:03:15.880 --> 00:03:17.400] You completely missed what I was trying to say.
[00:03:17.640 --> 00:03:18.600] But go ahead.
[00:03:18.600 --> 00:03:19.560] Just clarifying.
[00:03:19.560 --> 00:03:20.520] Yeah, no, I hear you.
[00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:29.800] But the impact that we had, we have people that have decided to come watch us record this show not because they like, you know, they want to hear you talk more about the brain.
[00:03:29.800 --> 00:03:32.440] It's more about they want to be a part of the SGU community.
[00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:35.000] They want to, you know, it's a human interaction.
[00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:37.960] Jay, it's 100% because they want to hear me talk about the brain.
[00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:41.240] Can we agree to disagree?
[00:03:42.920 --> 00:03:44.040] But seriously, I hear what you're saying.
[00:03:44.040 --> 00:03:44.200] Yeah.
[00:03:44.440 --> 00:03:47.600] Obviously, it's about community as well.
[00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:51.760] And that, because we started out as a skeptical organization, right?
[00:03:51.760 --> 00:03:52.480] As a community.
[00:03:52.480 --> 00:03:58.720] Before we were a podcast, it was all about just networking with other people who were skeptical and wanted to promote that.
[00:03:58.720 --> 00:04:02.080] And we wrote articles and whatever, but that was window dressing.
[00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:04.640] It was the physical interaction.
[00:04:04.880 --> 00:04:11.360] When we did the podcast, it's because we wanted to reach beyond our 200 people in Connecticut.
[00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:11.920] You know what I mean?
[00:04:11.920 --> 00:04:19.040] Like to take advantage of this new, newfangled thing called social media to see if we could reach more people.
[00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:20.960] I think it worked.
[00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:26.000] Experiment successful.
[00:04:27.280 --> 00:04:28.400] But we're done now, right?
[00:04:28.560 --> 00:04:29.440] 1,000, right?
[00:04:29.760 --> 00:04:30.480] Can I relax?
[00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:34.560] Wednesday nights, could I just relax and, you know, right?
[00:04:34.880 --> 00:04:35.840] We've talked about this.
[00:04:35.840 --> 00:04:37.440] I mean, it's a hard thing to think about.
[00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:39.280] They've been renewed for another thousand episodes.
[00:04:39.920 --> 00:04:40.560] Yeah.
[00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:42.320] We all signed contracts.
[00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:50.880] The next 20 years are going to be very hard, right?
[00:04:50.880 --> 00:04:52.240] We're going to all become very old.
[00:04:52.560 --> 00:04:53.280] Well, here's the question.
[00:04:53.760 --> 00:04:54.320] Here's the question.
[00:04:54.320 --> 00:05:00.320] So there's like tons of bands that tour nowadays where there's no original members of that band, right?
[00:05:00.320 --> 00:05:04.240] So like, you know, you see the Doobie Brothers and it's like one guy.
[00:05:04.240 --> 00:05:11.200] Or it's like you see Fog Hat and it's the roadie of the cousin who used to carry the bass guitar and that's Fog Hat.
[00:05:11.200 --> 00:05:22.320] Do you ever see like the skeptic side of the universe being a bunch of other people that like somehow kind of will cycle their way in, and this will be like the like the symphony orchestra of skeptical podcasts?
[00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:24.000] So, we've been asked that question.
[00:05:24.000 --> 00:05:25.520] Funny, you should mention it, George.
[00:05:25.520 --> 00:05:33.480] No, we've been asked that question, and like what we got this one email like a couple of months ago, somebody was like, So, you know, you guys are getting pretty up there.
[00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:37.640] And I'm like, starting to get worried, like, what's going to happen?
[00:05:37.640 --> 00:05:41.400] And do you guys have like younger people that are ready to take over for you?
[00:05:41.400 --> 00:05:45.160] You know, like when you know, you know, when you die, you know?
[00:05:46.760 --> 00:05:54.120] So, well, first of all, the thing I like about podcasting is I could totally see myself doing this at 80.
[00:05:54.120 --> 00:05:55.320] Why not?
[00:05:55.320 --> 00:05:55.720] Right?
[00:05:56.040 --> 00:05:58.760] Because I'm sitting at home in front of my computer.
[00:05:58.760 --> 00:05:59.800] Talk into the machine.
[00:06:00.120 --> 00:06:00.760] Talking.
[00:06:01.080 --> 00:06:02.280] Hello, is this single?
[00:06:02.440 --> 00:06:10.360] As long as my voice holds up and I don't get demented and whatever, which can happen, but there's, you know, if you get demented, we'll run you for president.
[00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:11.640] Yeah, that's true.
[00:06:16.760 --> 00:06:20.840] And I don't care what political party you belong to, that's fucking fun.
[00:06:24.680 --> 00:06:34.280] But part, it's always been our mission, even before the podcast, to be a conduit for people who want to contribute to the skeptical community.
[00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:34.920] Right?
[00:06:35.240 --> 00:06:38.200] And this is partly why we collaborate with so many people.
[00:06:38.200 --> 00:06:43.880] It's like it's not just about us, it's about getting as many voices into this as possible.
[00:06:43.880 --> 00:06:56.200] So one idea that I've sort of run by these guys, but you haven't really settled on anything, but I really want to move forward with, is to start nurturing a younger generation of skeptical podcasters, right?
[00:06:56.200 --> 00:07:05.720] And so what I want to do is to work with what we call skeptical correspondents or SGU correspondents.
[00:07:05.880 --> 00:07:11.800] So, these would be somebody who, for example, would record a five-minute science news item.
[00:07:11.800 --> 00:07:20.960] Pick a news item, just record yourself, five minutes, and if it's good, we will include it in the show, and you will become a SGU correspondent.
[00:07:21.760 --> 00:07:32.400] And we obviously want to look for, first of all, because as has been pointed out to us a couple of times, we're mostly old white guys up here on the stage.
[00:07:32.720 --> 00:07:36.400] You know, and mostly, yeah, mostly.
[00:07:38.400 --> 00:07:44.080] And we know that we want to have a diversity of perspectives, a diversity of voices, and everything, because that's just good.
[00:07:44.080 --> 00:07:46.800] It's good intellectually, it's good, you know.
[00:07:47.120 --> 00:07:56.720] Yes, we have a certain synergy, but we're acutely aware of the massive overlap in our life experience, our cultural experience, and whatever.
[00:07:56.720 --> 00:08:01.520] So, this would be a way of bringing in a greater diversity, a greater range of voices as well.
[00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:04.640] So, we're going to do that.
[00:08:06.320 --> 00:08:12.240] And it's going to start with just people submitting, no promises, just this is like anything.
[00:08:12.800 --> 00:08:14.880] And they'll slowly vote you out and then just kind of get it.
[00:08:15.840 --> 00:08:16.560] Well, you never know what.
[00:08:16.960 --> 00:08:19.040] It's just, you know, I do.
[00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:26.080] And over the years, and this happened at the last NATACON, this happens every time we are in a room with people.
[00:08:26.080 --> 00:08:29.840] Like, there's somebody who comes up to like a 19-year-old, you know, plucky person.
[00:08:30.080 --> 00:08:32.400] I want to get into science communication, whatever.
[00:08:32.400 --> 00:08:34.400] And we're like, absolutely, we want to help you do that.
[00:08:34.400 --> 00:08:36.160] And don't even bother, kid.
[00:08:36.160 --> 00:08:36.640] Listen to me.
[00:08:37.120 --> 00:08:38.000] Get away from me, Kate.
[00:08:38.000 --> 00:08:40.000] You're blocking everyone's business, brother.
[00:08:40.320 --> 00:08:41.840] There's one thing I got to tell you.
[00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:42.960] Stay out of the skeptic.
[00:08:45.680 --> 00:08:49.200] I used to be able to sing and look at myself in the morning.
[00:08:49.560 --> 00:08:49.880] Steve.
[00:08:50.040 --> 00:08:50.800] No more, brother.
[00:08:50.800 --> 00:08:51.840] Not anymore.
[00:08:52.160 --> 00:08:55.360] Steve, I like, that's a good idea, but I got a better one.
[00:08:55.360 --> 00:09:03.000] We could go forward, us, essentially, for decades or centuries as uploaded AI constructs.
[00:08:59.920 --> 00:09:05.240] I'd like that idea.
[00:09:07.080 --> 00:09:12.840] But when you do that, you end up with three arms.
[00:09:13.800 --> 00:09:15.320] That could be a bonus.
[00:09:16.760 --> 00:09:17.000] Who knows?
[00:09:17.480 --> 00:09:18.760] That's a feature, not a bug, Cara.
[00:09:18.920 --> 00:09:21.400] But we don't have any idea what the future is going to be.
[00:09:21.640 --> 00:09:24.040] We don't know what AI is going to do.
[00:09:24.200 --> 00:09:25.720] We like to speculate and talk about it.
[00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:29.320] But the bottom line is, right now, we're all alive, we're human.
[00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:31.320] Let's stay human.
[00:09:31.320 --> 00:09:36.760] And I want to record the show for as long as, like you said, Steve, for as long as we can do it, I'd like to do it.
[00:09:36.760 --> 00:09:45.240] And I totally love the concept of bringing in some new people and we could do a slow transition to let a new group of people take over.
[00:09:45.240 --> 00:09:54.520] The real question is, and this is the question you're asking, George, is the SGU us or is the SGU a legacy that is more than us?
[00:09:54.520 --> 00:09:55.480] Right, an idea.
[00:09:55.480 --> 00:09:55.720] Right.
[00:09:55.720 --> 00:09:56.840] Is it more of an idea?
[00:09:56.840 --> 00:09:57.880] Is it right?
[00:09:58.200 --> 00:10:04.200] And that's a hard question to answer because it's only been us, you know, with little iteration.
[00:10:04.200 --> 00:10:15.160] And so I don't know what the answer to that question is, but it's very, it's interesting, and certainly I like the idea of the SGU being a legacy that survives beyond me and beyond us.
[00:10:15.160 --> 00:10:17.720] It obviously won't be the same, right?
[00:10:17.720 --> 00:10:20.200] It can't be, but nothing's ever going to be the same.
[00:10:20.680 --> 00:10:24.520] You can say that the iterations, though, have made the show stronger and better, I would say.
[00:10:24.600 --> 00:10:24.840] Totally.
[00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:32.840] So that's a good sign, you know, that making changes because you are cognizant, making changes, not just for change's sake, but just because they could really make a difference.
[00:10:33.160 --> 00:10:35.480] And we've very strategically made changes.
[00:10:35.720 --> 00:10:49.680] I mean, you know, we've talked about the fact that when we brought Kara on, there was a we spent six months, you know, making that decision, and it was very strategic, meaning we wanted somebody who was going to bring something awesome to the show, and she did.
[00:10:44.840 --> 00:10:51.040] You know, and we were very happy with that.
[00:10:51.120 --> 00:10:52.640] It exceeded our expectations.
[00:10:52.640 --> 00:10:54.000] But that was like very deliberate.
[00:10:54.000 --> 00:10:55.040] It wasn't just like an accident.
[00:10:55.040 --> 00:10:56.320] Like, hey, it wasn't a whim.
[00:10:56.320 --> 00:10:59.600] You know, it was like, the show needs this kind of voice.
[00:10:59.600 --> 00:11:00.320] She's perfect.
[00:11:00.320 --> 00:11:02.000] Let's bring her on and make the show better.
[00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:03.040] And that's what happened.
[00:11:03.040 --> 00:11:04.800] So are you taking like applications now?
[00:11:05.040 --> 00:11:06.080] Or what's the process of?
[00:11:06.480 --> 00:11:06.880] Yeah, so.
[00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:08.880] No, if people are interested, I mean, if there's young people listening.
[00:11:09.760 --> 00:11:10.640] This was the announcement.
[00:11:10.640 --> 00:11:13.840] If you want to, this is something you feel like you're interested in doing.
[00:11:13.840 --> 00:11:17.360] And I have spoken to some specific people about this already.
[00:11:17.360 --> 00:11:19.440] That obviously I know personally already.
[00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:21.280] But send in a clip.
[00:11:21.920 --> 00:11:23.440] We'll give you feedback.
[00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:24.800] We may or may not use it.
[00:11:24.800 --> 00:11:33.520] But we want to develop a relationship with like two or three people who like maybe once a few weeks or something we include a clip into the show that's just like another perspective.
[00:11:33.520 --> 00:11:38.320] Somebody from Australia or somebody, whatever, from a completely different perspective or with a different expertise.
[00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:39.680] That's the other thing.
[00:11:40.160 --> 00:11:52.080] When we were like thinking about who would we bring on the show, it's also about, well, we need, we might as well try to bring in somebody who has some expertise of their own that complements what we already have on the show.
[00:11:52.080 --> 00:11:56.240] So it's not just about diversity of background and perspective.
[00:11:56.240 --> 00:11:58.080] It's also diversity of expertise.
[00:11:58.080 --> 00:12:00.640] Because there was talk about so many things on the show.
[00:12:01.280 --> 00:12:14.640] And obviously we go way, you know, as science journalists, you know, we get to topics where we have no topic expertise, so we have to rely upon our journalistic expertise, which is tricky.
[00:12:14.640 --> 00:12:16.320] It's really hard.
[00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:20.720] And it's always nice to have somebody with actual topic expertise.
[00:12:20.720 --> 00:12:30.040] Which is why we also like to partner with people like say Brian Wecht, who we were talking about just before we started the show, who's like, oh, a physicist, an actual physicist.
[00:12:29.760 --> 00:12:33.800] They probably have some topic expertise on physics that we don't have.
[00:12:34.760 --> 00:12:40.360] So anyway, this is all, I think, also part of what I think of as the legacy of the show.
[00:12:40.360 --> 00:12:47.800] But we don't know what the future brings, but at no point in the last 20 years do we get to the point where like, let's just keep doing exactly what we're doing.
[00:12:47.800 --> 00:12:48.600] And you know what I mean?
[00:12:48.600 --> 00:12:50.040] And not even think about changing.
[00:12:50.200 --> 00:12:52.840] It's always about what's the next thing?
[00:12:52.840 --> 00:12:53.800] What's the next thing?
[00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:56.280] What are we not doing now that we should be doing?
[00:12:57.160 --> 00:13:04.520] There are very few examples of things that last for decades and that don't iterate and don't change over time.
[00:13:04.840 --> 00:13:07.080] Their essence might be the same and they might be similar or whatever.
[00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:09.160] But yeah, but you have to be able to modify.
[00:13:09.640 --> 00:13:10.760] And which you guys are doing.
[00:13:11.320 --> 00:13:12.040] We're trying.
[00:13:12.040 --> 00:13:12.360] Yeah.
[00:13:13.000 --> 00:13:16.680] All right, so we are going to do some actual meaty content.
[00:13:16.680 --> 00:13:19.400] We're not just going to talk about ourselves for an hour and a half.
[00:13:19.720 --> 00:13:21.640] As exciting as that would be.
[00:13:21.960 --> 00:13:31.880] My task for the rogues was so we're going to, obviously this is a bit of a retrospective show, but we're not just going to do the best of clips or whatever.
[00:13:32.200 --> 00:13:47.480] What you are going to do is rather than just doing like, here's the one narrow news item that's happening right now, we wanted to take a look at the arc of some of the topics that we've covered over the last 20 years and sort of give a look back about that topic.
[00:13:47.480 --> 00:14:04.360] And it's also, it's a little bit of a victory lap in that it's where it's like 20 years ago, this is what topic that we were confronting, and this is what the true believers had to say about it, the deniers had to say about it, this is what the skeptics had to say about it.
[00:14:04.360 --> 00:14:13.480] Let's look back and see what's happened over the last 20 years to see, I don't want to say who was right, but you get the idea.
[00:14:13.880 --> 00:14:14.720] How it panned out.
[00:14:15.200 --> 00:14:17.600] Well, we could cherry pick it and make it look like we're very smart.
[00:14:18.000 --> 00:14:18.720] We could cherry pick it.
[00:14:14.520 --> 00:14:19.840] We have a lot to cherry pick it.
[00:14:19.920 --> 00:14:23.360] But anyway, these are topics that I think we should cover.
[00:14:23.360 --> 00:14:25.200] So I'm going to start.
[00:14:25.200 --> 00:14:25.840] Okay.
[00:14:26.480 --> 00:14:29.200] And I'm going to talk about global warming.
[00:14:29.200 --> 00:14:36.320] Because that global warming has one of the biggest topics that we have covered for the last 20 years.
[00:14:36.880 --> 00:14:45.040] Right at the beginning of our really our entry into skepticism, certainly podcasting, this was a big topic.
[00:14:45.040 --> 00:14:49.680] And it has been a fairly active and dynamic topic over the last 20 years.
[00:14:50.160 --> 00:14:55.760] Here's a graph of the changing average surface temperatures of the Earth.
[00:14:56.080 --> 00:15:05.520] Going back to 1880, but you could look at the last 2000 to 2020, basically the period of time that we've been podcasting.
[00:15:05.520 --> 00:15:09.600] There's a pretty steep curve up of temperatures.
[00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:14.400] But I'm going to go back a little bit further and talk about a climate change denial timeline.
[00:15:14.400 --> 00:15:15.280] Here we go.
[00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:18.160] 1896, this is how far back it goes.
[00:15:18.160 --> 00:15:33.200] 1896, Savante Arrhenius predicted that CO2 was a greenhouse gas and that it would cause the presence of CO2 in the atmosphere would warm the atmosphere because it traps reflected heat, et cetera.
[00:15:33.200 --> 00:15:38.640] And it sort of reached an equilibrium point that depends on how much CO2 there is in the atmosphere.
[00:15:38.640 --> 00:15:42.960] So we knew about this going back to 1896.
[00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:55.440] In 1938, another scientist, Guy Callender, said that CO2, this is not just CO2, but the CO2 that's being released into the atmosphere will cause global warming.
[00:15:55.680 --> 00:15:59.280] So it's not just that this is part of geology.
[00:15:59.280 --> 00:16:02.200] This is actually something that's happening in the world.
[00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:06.680] So again, going back to 1938, we knew, we knew this was happening.
[00:16:07.320 --> 00:16:25.080] In 1950, the 1950s, the fossil fuel industry was warned that burning their product, you know, fossil fuels, releases CO2 into the atmosphere, causes global warming, and can potentially be significantly harmful.
[00:16:25.080 --> 00:16:34.840] In 1970, Shell and BP, these are two fossil fuel companies, funded climate research, but they didn't just say we're going to fund climate research.
[00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:48.840] They specifically funded scientists to push against the mainstream, the emerging mainstream scientific opinion that man-made CO2 was causing global climate change.
[00:16:49.240 --> 00:17:04.040] This is basically the beginning of a well-financed campaign of science denial meant to cause uncertainty and doubt about the effects of burning fossil fuels on the climate.
[00:17:04.040 --> 00:17:12.520] In 1981, Exxon was again warned that CO2 emissions not only are warming the planet, but the results could be quote-unquote catastrophic.
[00:17:12.520 --> 00:17:15.640] These are all documented from internal records, et cetera.
[00:17:15.640 --> 00:17:18.120] So Exxon actually said that themselves?
[00:17:18.920 --> 00:17:20.840] This is their own internal documentation.
[00:17:21.000 --> 00:17:22.040] It didn't get out?
[00:17:22.360 --> 00:17:24.440] It's out now, but yes, at the time.
[00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:24.920] But yes.
[00:17:25.320 --> 00:17:26.120] So just like the...
[00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:29.800] So they knew that fossil fuel was causing global warming.
[00:17:29.800 --> 00:17:32.040] They were told by scientists it's going to be catastrophic.
[00:17:32.360 --> 00:17:36.680] Essentially, their response was, let's fund scientists to give us a different answer.
[00:17:36.840 --> 00:17:39.000] This sounds like when the tobacco companies did.
[00:17:39.000 --> 00:17:40.600] They hired scientists, right?
[00:17:40.600 --> 00:17:43.000] And they buried the evidence that the scientists found.
[00:17:43.320 --> 00:17:45.360] Interesting, you mentioned the tobacco industry, Evan.
[00:17:45.600 --> 00:17:46.480] We'll get to that.
[00:17:46.560 --> 00:17:51.600] 1985, Carl Sagan testified to Congress about anthropogenic global warming.
[00:17:51.920 --> 00:17:56.160] So this is when it really, for me, that's when it really became like, oh, this is an issue.
[00:17:56.160 --> 00:18:06.480] I remember that was the first I heard about it was from Carl Sagan, just outlining, we're burning fossil fuel, we're releasing CO2, it's warming the planet, this is not sustainable, we need another way.
[00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:09.440] For me, it was an inconvenient truth when that documentary came out.
[00:18:09.440 --> 00:18:11.600] Yeah, that was a big part of it, too.
[00:18:11.920 --> 00:18:21.200] Steve, was there any sense, though, that this wasn't something that would really manifest in 300 years, but a generation late?
[00:18:22.160 --> 00:18:25.920] Yeah, so I think that's when an inconvenient truth came out.
[00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:29.760] It was like, this is not something theoretical for 300 years from now.
[00:18:29.760 --> 00:18:33.360] This is going to be happening in the lifetime of people who are alive today.
[00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:44.320] 1989, the Global Climate Coalition, this is a coalition of fossil fuel companies who banded together to push back against the narrative of HEW.
[00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:54.880] Now, Evan, these two guys, Seats and Singer, are scientists who were hired by the fossil fuel industry to dispute anthropogenic global warming.
[00:18:54.880 --> 00:19:00.480] They're the same two guys who were hired by the tobacco industry to sow doubt about the causes of cancer.
[00:19:00.480 --> 00:19:03.360] It's the same actual guys, right?
[00:19:03.360 --> 00:19:11.600] Not just the same strategy of, oh, we're going to hire experts to come up with a specific answer that's favorable to our industry.
[00:19:11.600 --> 00:19:13.520] It's literally the same people.
[00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:22.480] When you zoom out on that, like, you know, that the people that worked for Exxon or that coalition that they came up with, this is what the conversation was like.
[00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:23.880] George, play with me for a second.
[00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:24.200] Okay.
[00:19:24.800 --> 00:19:27.440] So they're, you know, we've got a problem here.
[00:19:27.840 --> 00:19:28.400] We need help.
[00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:29.600] We've got to figure out how to do this.
[00:19:29.600 --> 00:19:31.000] What do we got?
[00:19:31.000 --> 00:19:32.760] I know a guy.
[00:19:29.920 --> 00:19:35.240] Is he a scientist?
[00:19:37.560 --> 00:19:39.320] Will he do what we tell him to do?
[00:19:39.320 --> 00:19:40.200] Oh, yeah.
[00:19:41.960 --> 00:19:45.640] Table him, give him a million dollars, and then let's go on vacation.
[00:19:45.800 --> 00:19:46.840] John Boston.
[00:19:46.840 --> 00:19:48.840] So these were hired guns, right?
[00:19:48.840 --> 00:19:51.560] This is like the very definition of a hired gun.
[00:19:51.560 --> 00:19:53.560] Do you guys remember the global warming pause?
[00:19:53.560 --> 00:19:54.520] Remember that term?
[00:19:54.520 --> 00:19:57.160] 1998 to 2013.
[00:19:57.160 --> 00:19:58.440] It was never real.
[00:19:58.440 --> 00:19:59.480] It was never real.
[00:19:59.480 --> 00:20:05.960] But this is sort of the, now we're getting to the period of time when we were active in skepticism and when the podcast was starting.
[00:20:05.960 --> 00:20:13.720] It was right in the middle of when the, what I would call global warming deniers were saying, oh, global warming's not actually even happening.
[00:20:13.720 --> 00:20:19.880] It's all just, this is just the natural fluctuation in temperature, in the climate.
[00:20:19.880 --> 00:20:20.600] Who knows?
[00:20:20.600 --> 00:20:27.320] It could be driven by solar activity, or we're just sort of recovering from the mini ice age in the Middle Ages still.
[00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:34.120] And yeah, so it's, and in fact, global warming hasn't even happened for the last 16 years.
[00:20:34.120 --> 00:20:38.200] There's really two ways in which they created that false narrative.
[00:20:38.200 --> 00:20:39.400] I mean, they're both just lying.
[00:20:39.400 --> 00:20:41.480] But I mean, there are two sort of strategies.
[00:20:41.480 --> 00:20:51.880] One was so they cherry-picked as their starting point a high point in the natural short-term fluctuation of climate change, right?
[00:20:51.880 --> 00:20:57.560] That it was an El NiΓ±o, like a strong El NiΓ±o year, where it was, this is 1997.
[00:20:57.880 --> 00:21:01.240] 1997 was a particularly hot year.
[00:21:01.560 --> 00:21:20.400] And then if you look at the following 10 to 15 years, there's still this trend if you ignore that artificially cherry-picked high starting point, but you can kind of create graphically create this illusion that there was no warming over the last 15 years.
[00:21:21.520 --> 00:21:24.400] So, and they said, see, it's not even really happening anymore.
[00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:32.720] Now, the other thing is that it's, so they cherry-picked their starting point, but they also cherry-picked a short run of temperature.
[00:21:32.720 --> 00:21:47.520] The climate scientists use a 30-year horizon in order to, they're constantly looking over, you know, averaging temperatures over 30 years in order to produce like a statistical trend in the climate.
[00:21:47.520 --> 00:21:51.200] It takes 30 years for it to become statistically significant, right?
[00:21:51.200 --> 00:21:52.720] Is one way to look at it.
[00:21:52.720 --> 00:21:59.040] Which means if you ever look at a 10-year period, there's not going to be any significant change by definition.
[00:21:59.040 --> 00:22:03.600] It just hasn't been enough time for the statistics to play itself out.
[00:22:03.840 --> 00:22:08.080] So, you can always say it's not currently warming, right?
[00:22:08.080 --> 00:22:13.840] You could always say it's statistically speaking, you know, there hasn't been, yeah, of course, because it's a 30-year freaking trend.
[00:22:13.840 --> 00:22:15.520] You can't look at it over a 10 years.
[00:22:15.520 --> 00:22:21.520] So, for those two reasons, the pause was always BS, like it was never real.
[00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:29.520] And so, what were the people who did not believe in global warming or were paid not to believe in it or whatever you think about it?
[00:22:29.520 --> 00:22:36.400] The people who were doubtful of anthropogenic global warming, what were they saying in 2005 when we started the podcast?
[00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:37.920] Well, it's not really happening.
[00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:38.960] We're in a pause.
[00:22:38.960 --> 00:22:50.400] The pause really is, you know, so this is all just natural fluctuation that will regress to the mean, and over the next 10 to 20 years, temperatures are going to settle back down to where they were in the 1980s, 1990s.
[00:22:50.800 --> 00:22:52.400] That's what they were predicting.
[00:22:52.400 --> 00:22:53.920] That's what they were saying.
[00:22:53.920 --> 00:22:56.160] Here we are, 2024.
[00:22:56.160 --> 00:23:01.320] The last 10 years are the hottest 10 years on record.
[00:23:01.640 --> 00:23:04.520] If you go, you guys all know the hockey stick, right?
[00:22:59.760 --> 00:23:06.200] Michael Mann's hockey stick.
[00:23:06.360 --> 00:23:08.600] I've had Michael Mann on the show a couple of times.
[00:23:08.600 --> 00:23:09.160] Here it is.
[00:23:09.160 --> 00:23:10.440] I'm showing you a graph.
[00:23:10.440 --> 00:23:21.560] This is just the end point of it, you know, where temperatures are pretty flat over centuries, and then in the last 30, 40, 50 years, they curve up, you know, like the blade of a hockey stick, right?
[00:23:21.560 --> 00:23:27.480] This has been replicated over and over and over again from multiple, multiple different independent sources of information.
[00:23:27.480 --> 00:23:37.080] And, you know, it's really undeniable now that the predictions of people who were saying that AGW is happening are correct.
[00:23:37.080 --> 00:23:48.680] And in fact, I remember like in 2010, there were skeptics who made a public offer, like a wager, you know, to climate sign, to climate deniers.
[00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:52.520] It's like, go ahead then, make your prediction for the next 10 years, right?
[00:23:52.520 --> 00:23:55.800] And we'll make our prediction for the next 10 years, and we'll see who's right.
[00:23:55.800 --> 00:23:56.920] And nobody bit, right?
[00:23:56.920 --> 00:23:59.080] Because they knew that they were going to lose.
[00:23:59.080 --> 00:24:03.560] And of course, the scientists were correct because it is happening, right?
[00:24:03.640 --> 00:24:05.480] Anthropogenic global warming is happening.
[00:24:05.640 --> 00:24:08.040] What was your viewpoint in 2005 when the show started?
[00:24:08.040 --> 00:24:09.640] Where were you on the argument?
[00:24:09.880 --> 00:24:15.080] So, all right, so we were totally on board with AGW, except for Perry, right?
[00:24:15.080 --> 00:24:17.640] Because Perry, this was his bias.
[00:24:18.120 --> 00:24:21.000] And he and I fought about this, right?
[00:24:21.080 --> 00:24:23.960] I mean, personally, fought about this.
[00:24:23.960 --> 00:24:27.960] And he never liked it when I destroyed his arguments, right?
[00:24:28.600 --> 00:24:29.400] Oh?
[00:24:29.720 --> 00:24:30.680] Yeah, no, he didn't like that.
[00:24:30.840 --> 00:24:31.880] None of us do, Steve.
[00:24:34.440 --> 00:24:36.520] But it wasn't like Perry was an outlier either.
[00:24:36.520 --> 00:24:37.880] There were others in the skeptical community.
[00:24:38.040 --> 00:24:39.000] There were others in the skeptical community.
[00:24:40.200 --> 00:24:41.000] Yeah, that's why I was wondering.
[00:24:41.240 --> 00:24:47.600] There were others in the skeptical community, you know, all libertarians, you know, that also doubted global warming.
[00:24:47.600 --> 00:24:49.520] And so Perry was sort of in that crowd.
[00:24:49.520 --> 00:24:56.960] And I always wonder, because again, he died before I had a chance to find out, could I have, how long would it have taken for me to really bring him around?
[00:24:56.960 --> 00:24:59.280] You know, we don't know, unfortunately.
[00:24:59.600 --> 00:25:00.960] What was his main argument?
[00:25:01.680 --> 00:25:04.640] Well, it's whatever the arguments were floating around at the time.
[00:25:04.880 --> 00:25:06.240] You know, they were never good.
[00:25:06.560 --> 00:25:07.040] Right.
[00:25:07.040 --> 00:25:10.320] Yeah, normal fluctuation, and then there are volcanoes.
[00:25:10.560 --> 00:25:10.880] Yeah.
[00:25:11.760 --> 00:25:13.040] It was cold yesterday.
[00:25:13.520 --> 00:25:14.800] Not that stupid, but I mean.
[00:25:17.600 --> 00:25:20.480] And the thing is, here's the thing that's true about global warming, right?
[00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:25.680] And we talk about this just as science communication strategists, right?
[00:25:25.680 --> 00:25:33.120] How do you address, how do you change people's minds when they believe something that's not scientifically valid, not scientifically true?
[00:25:33.120 --> 00:25:35.600] And the answer is it depends on what the topic is, right?
[00:25:35.600 --> 00:25:37.280] This is something that we learned.
[00:25:37.280 --> 00:25:41.440] You know, 1995, Carl Sagan would say it's an information deficit problem.
[00:25:41.680 --> 00:25:46.000] People believe pseudoscience in direct proportion to their ignorance of actual science.
[00:25:46.000 --> 00:25:49.200] That's like almost an exact quote from Carl Sagan.
[00:25:49.200 --> 00:25:52.800] And it turns out that that's not true most of the time.
[00:25:52.800 --> 00:25:57.120] It is true for some topics, like GMOs.
[00:25:57.440 --> 00:26:15.280] Global warming is at one end of the spectrum where people who deny global warming know more about climate science than the average person and sometimes more than the people that are debating them from the scientific point of view, like if they're just other journalists, not experts, right?
[00:26:15.600 --> 00:26:19.760] And giving them information has no effect on their belief.
[00:26:19.760 --> 00:26:25.200] In fact, if anything, they're the one group where there's some evidence where they might dig in their heels.
[00:26:25.200 --> 00:26:32.920] So this is which is, I think, a way of saying that global warming denial is a sophisticated pseudoscience.
[00:26:33.000 --> 00:26:39.560] They have, because they're spending millions of dollars hiring scientists to fund an industry of denial.
[00:26:39.560 --> 00:26:42.280] So, yes, of course they have sophisticated arguments.
[00:26:42.280 --> 00:26:43.720] They're bought and paid for.
[00:26:43.720 --> 00:26:46.920] Yeah, and there's good motivated reasoning for them.
[00:26:47.320 --> 00:26:49.320] It's an industry that they need to protect.
[00:26:49.320 --> 00:26:53.800] I mean, it's a multi-billion dollar industry, and they don't want to lose their profits.
[00:26:53.800 --> 00:26:54.440] Right, right.
[00:26:55.160 --> 00:27:00.840] Their literal strategy is to delay this until they can get all of their assets out of the ground.
[00:27:01.080 --> 00:27:02.120] That's their goal.
[00:27:02.760 --> 00:27:08.680] They don't want to shut down fossil fuel until they've capitalized on all of their assets.
[00:27:08.680 --> 00:27:09.160] That's it.
[00:27:09.160 --> 00:27:09.720] That's their goal.
[00:27:09.720 --> 00:27:10.920] And you know what?
[00:27:10.920 --> 00:27:12.440] They're freaking winning.
[00:27:12.760 --> 00:27:13.720] They are winning.
[00:27:13.720 --> 00:27:14.760] It's working.
[00:27:15.720 --> 00:27:17.480] We're producing more fossil fuel.
[00:27:17.480 --> 00:27:21.080] We're burning more fossil fuel now than we ever have.
[00:27:21.080 --> 00:27:24.040] We haven't even turned the ship around yet.
[00:27:24.040 --> 00:27:28.840] You know, we talk often about how long is it going to take to get to net zero, whatever.
[00:27:28.840 --> 00:27:30.440] We haven't even turned a corner yet.
[00:27:30.440 --> 00:27:31.880] We're still going up.
[00:27:33.000 --> 00:27:33.640] It's amazing.
[00:27:33.640 --> 00:27:34.920] It's disheartening.
[00:27:34.920 --> 00:27:42.600] But I do think the conversation has turned around, but it hasn't yet had an impact on the actual reality yet.
[00:27:42.600 --> 00:27:44.520] Because it's not easy.
[00:27:44.760 --> 00:27:46.120] We are asking a lot.
[00:27:46.600 --> 00:27:49.480] Collectively, people are saying, we've got to fix global warming.
[00:27:49.480 --> 00:27:50.680] It's not a quick fix.
[00:27:50.680 --> 00:27:54.440] It's like we have to turn around multiple industries.
[00:27:54.440 --> 00:27:56.200] There's a massive amount of momentum.
[00:27:57.320 --> 00:27:59.320] We are trying to change civilization.
[00:27:59.320 --> 00:28:00.200] We get it.
[00:28:00.200 --> 00:28:01.240] It's not easy.
[00:28:01.240 --> 00:28:14.480] And the misinformation, the disinformation that is spread is convincing people that the grid is never going to be able to handle electric cars, and electric cars are horrible to produce because of all the chemicals that they use.
[00:28:14.360 --> 00:28:19.840] And even other industries that are tangential to this, they're discrediting them.
[00:28:20.480 --> 00:28:29.040] They circulate these images online of somebody had a diesel generator running a machine to put power into their electric car.
[00:28:29.040 --> 00:28:30.880] Yeah, some idiot did that somewhere.
[00:28:31.440 --> 00:28:32.560] That's not what's happening.
[00:28:33.520 --> 00:28:37.920] So the real problem is that this is politically motivated.
[00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:38.160] Of course.
[00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:39.440] I don't doubt about that.
[00:28:39.600 --> 00:28:50.720] And it follows, as we'll probably continue to see throughout the show today, it follows this very classic course of adjusting and adapting the rhetoric for a more sophisticated audience.
[00:28:50.720 --> 00:28:55.360] Because I think it's quite rare now to see people who are just flat out deniers.
[00:28:55.360 --> 00:28:58.240] I think most of the people you see is go, okay, well, yeah, maybe it is.
[00:28:58.240 --> 00:28:58.640] Okay.
[00:28:58.640 --> 00:29:01.520] We can't deny this getting warmer, but it's not anthropogenic.
[00:29:01.840 --> 00:29:02.800] Or it is, but how do we know it's a warmer?
[00:29:02.960 --> 00:29:03.840] Or it is, but yeah.
[00:29:03.840 --> 00:29:08.640] But you're talking about sinking all this money into something that we don't even know if it's going to work.
[00:29:08.640 --> 00:29:17.200] So there's always the goalpost continues to move, but the core argument, which is I need to keep doing what I've been doing.
[00:29:17.600 --> 00:29:19.520] But it's always a tell, right?
[00:29:20.160 --> 00:29:23.760] And it's the same thing with the anti-vaccine community as well.
[00:29:23.760 --> 00:29:29.840] It's like, no matter what the argument, no matter what the line of attack, it's always, the answer is always the same.
[00:29:29.840 --> 00:29:30.640] Do nothing.
[00:29:31.040 --> 00:29:31.600] Right?
[00:29:31.600 --> 00:29:34.800] Or with the anti-vaccine movement, it's always the same answer.
[00:29:34.800 --> 00:29:35.920] It's the vaccines.
[00:29:35.920 --> 00:29:36.960] It's always the vaccines.
[00:29:37.200 --> 00:29:38.240] Which is also a do-nothing.
[00:29:38.240 --> 00:29:39.280] It's like, don't get vaccinated.
[00:29:39.440 --> 00:29:40.560] Like, that's the do-nothing issue.
[00:29:41.120 --> 00:29:48.960] Yeah, but again, the fossil fuel industry is like, do nothing until we get all of our oil out of the ground, and then we'll be dead, and we don't care.
[00:29:49.400 --> 00:29:54.000] But yeah, so yeah, no matter what the argument is, it's always the same.
[00:29:54.000 --> 00:29:59.320] So that's how you know it's motivated reasoning, because the end result is always the same.
[00:29:59.120 --> 00:30:03.480] All right, we're going to move on, and this is a sort of related topic.
[00:30:03.560 --> 00:30:08.520] Jay, you're going to talk about our coverage of solar panels over the last 20 years.
[00:30:08.840 --> 00:30:12.920] I picked solar collection solar panels, and I wanted to talk about it.
[00:30:12.920 --> 00:30:20.840] First, I want to talk about when we first talked about it as kind of like a marker of what was going on in the news at that time and everything.
[00:30:21.160 --> 00:30:30.520] So, a listener of the show, who's one of our patrons, built some free software for us that lets us textually search the podcast now.
[00:30:30.520 --> 00:30:31.320] Wow.
[00:30:31.640 --> 00:30:34.440] And we're going to roll this out to everyone eventually.
[00:30:35.400 --> 00:30:42.840] Ian and I have been talking about how to make it better and how to give it a little bit more user interface reliability and everything.
[00:30:42.840 --> 00:30:46.120] But I used it a lot, and it's pretty damn cool.
[00:30:46.120 --> 00:30:48.440] So, I'm curious, Steve, when do you think?
[00:30:48.440 --> 00:30:49.400] Don't look at my screen.
[00:30:49.400 --> 00:30:54.520] When do you think, what year, what episode did we first, first, first talk about solar panels?
[00:30:55.320 --> 00:30:58.840] I don't remember, but I would guess it was early, early on.
[00:30:59.480 --> 00:31:05.640] My memory is like sometime around 2000, between 2005 and 2007, we talked about solar panels.
[00:31:05.640 --> 00:31:09.720] And at the time, the efficiency was at about 12%.
[00:31:09.720 --> 00:31:11.400] Yeah, that's damn close, man.
[00:31:11.400 --> 00:31:13.480] Steve's brain is awesome.
[00:31:13.800 --> 00:31:27.800] 2008, episode 135, Steve talked about it, and he said it's not quite at the breakout level in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it's interesting that they didn't say that they didn't make solar energy more efficient.
[00:31:27.800 --> 00:31:30.200] They said make it affordable, and I think that's right.
[00:31:30.200 --> 00:31:38.520] Right now, the efficiency for commercial solar panels is around 12% in terms of the amount of solar energy that's converted to electricity.
[00:31:38.520 --> 00:31:50.080] So, I have a couple of interesting things here about the snapshot of what did people who believed in it or were saying, hey, this is an interesting thing, what were they saying?
[00:31:50.080 --> 00:31:51.920] And then what were the cynics saying?
[00:31:51.920 --> 00:32:00.000] So the people who were supporting it were saying that, first off, there was an increased and growing interest in renewable energy.
[00:32:00.000 --> 00:32:03.120] More and more people were hearing about it and were finding it compelling.
[00:32:03.120 --> 00:32:08.560] Many solar, they were saying solar energy is going to be a crucial component of future energy.
[00:32:08.560 --> 00:32:10.480] It's going to be heavy in the mix.
[00:32:10.480 --> 00:32:16.240] There was awareness and politicians were changing their rhetoric about it.
[00:32:16.560 --> 00:32:21.200] There were some technological advancements that were happening back around 2008.
[00:32:21.200 --> 00:32:23.280] There was an increase in efficiency happening.
[00:32:23.280 --> 00:32:27.280] It wasn't a lot, but people were seeing reports of it happening and a decrease in costs.
[00:32:27.280 --> 00:32:29.520] And those two things always match each other.
[00:32:29.520 --> 00:32:31.840] Increase in efficiency, lower cost, always.
[00:32:32.480 --> 00:32:37.280] There was government support via incentives like tax credits and subsidies.
[00:32:37.280 --> 00:32:43.760] And people were beginning to talk about energy independence and the environmental benefits.
[00:32:44.160 --> 00:32:49.680] Again, just keep in mind, very beginning of the talks about this stuff, not that long ago, 2008.
[00:32:49.680 --> 00:32:55.520] The cynics were saying, look, it's way too expensive, and that right there, it's a deal killer.
[00:32:55.520 --> 00:32:57.920] Not thinking, well, yeah, it needs to progress.
[00:32:57.920 --> 00:33:02.960] The technology is not going to, like, tomorrow, all of a sudden, have, you know, be above the waterline.
[00:33:02.960 --> 00:33:04.880] Like, investments need to happen.
[00:33:04.880 --> 00:33:15.440] They also were saying that the efficiency and reliability were not there at all, like the reliability of the technology and being able to get it into the grid and all that stuff.
[00:33:15.440 --> 00:33:18.080] Yeah, it really wasn't there back in 2008.
[00:33:18.080 --> 00:33:24.960] They were correct, but it wasn't something to say that would make you not want to invest the money and keep pushing the technology.
[00:33:24.960 --> 00:33:29.120] They thought that the solar industry was too dependent on govern government subsidies.
[00:33:29.120 --> 00:33:29.680] And you know what?
[00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:47.000] Back then it was you know that that and I think that's fine because the governments are there to to create new industries and put money into programs that in the future will pay off They were saying that it will never be able to compete with coal, gas, and nuke.
[00:33:47.000 --> 00:33:48.440] And they were wrong.
[00:33:48.680 --> 00:33:52.360] They also said that the grid integration is going to be too difficult.
[00:33:52.360 --> 00:33:54.760] It's going to be too costly to take on.
[00:33:54.760 --> 00:33:57.960] And unfortunately, you know, that's true today.
[00:33:57.960 --> 00:33:59.080] It's very expensive.
[00:33:59.480 --> 00:34:01.160] But you have to put it into perspective.
[00:34:01.160 --> 00:34:07.400] Because whenever I get into conversations with people about solar, I often find that there's this dichotomy.
[00:34:07.400 --> 00:34:11.160] It's like, well, like, it won't work at 100%, therefore it's worthless.
[00:34:11.160 --> 00:34:13.960] It's like, well, okay, but it could work at 30%.
[00:34:13.960 --> 00:34:20.280] You know, like, all of these problems only really start to kick in when you get north of, I don't know, 30, 40% penetration.
[00:34:20.520 --> 00:34:22.120] You could argue about that.
[00:34:22.120 --> 00:34:27.800] But there isn't really a grid problem until we get to 30% or so.
[00:34:27.800 --> 00:34:30.200] So, and we're nowhere near that.
[00:34:30.200 --> 00:34:32.760] So we have a lot of room to expand.
[00:34:32.760 --> 00:34:37.080] And obviously, we could then expand the grid as we're doing it so that we can keep ahead of it.
[00:34:37.160 --> 00:34:38.120] Yeah, we just need to do it, though.
[00:34:38.280 --> 00:34:38.840] We just need to do it.
[00:34:39.000 --> 00:34:39.720] Slow and steady.
[00:34:39.720 --> 00:34:40.360] That's fine.
[00:34:41.080 --> 00:34:42.360] We're never going to have like this.
[00:34:42.600 --> 00:34:44.280] We're going to rewire the United States.
[00:34:44.280 --> 00:34:45.080] It's not going to happen.
[00:34:45.640 --> 00:34:50.520] We've got to make these solid incremental technological increases to do it.
[00:34:50.520 --> 00:34:51.000] Okay.
[00:34:51.000 --> 00:35:01.240] So I thought that I would just go into a little detail about comparing 2004 to 2024, just to give you guys some figures and ideas of where it's come from.
[00:35:01.400 --> 00:35:07.160] And just as a quick aside, humans using solar energy is ancient.
[00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:10.120] We've been using the sun to do lots of things.
[00:35:11.240 --> 00:35:17.520] If you look at the history of it, it's fascinating because the sun has always been a source of energy to humans.
[00:35:18.000 --> 00:35:26.880] Even a thousand years ago, they were doing things that the sun was a crucial part of, even like curing meats and food and all that stuff.
[00:35:26.880 --> 00:35:33.200] So modern times, us shifting into using the sun for energy is obvious as hell.
[00:35:33.200 --> 00:35:36.640] We've known about this for 50, 60 years.
[00:35:36.640 --> 00:35:40.960] We were talking about, scientists were talking about using the sun as a source of energy.
[00:35:40.960 --> 00:35:46.480] So anyway, 2004, average solar panel efficiency was around 12 to 15 percent.
[00:35:46.640 --> 00:35:52.720] And of course, this means that 12 to 15 percent of the sunlight that hits the solar panels is actually being converted into electricity.
[00:35:52.720 --> 00:35:57.120] In 2024, does anybody have an idea where it is?
[00:35:57.120 --> 00:35:58.000] Somebody raise your hand quick.
[00:35:58.000 --> 00:35:58.880] I'll pick somebody.
[00:35:59.680 --> 00:36:01.360] Correct, 22 to 25.
[00:36:01.360 --> 00:36:02.320] You're both win.
[00:36:02.320 --> 00:36:03.440] Very good.
[00:36:03.760 --> 00:36:07.680] We have laboratory prototypes right now reaching 29%.
[00:36:07.680 --> 00:36:17.360] We can, you know, essentially they're coming up with better methods to trap the sunlight and to turn it into energy.
[00:36:17.360 --> 00:36:19.120] The cost, let's talk about cost now.
[00:36:19.120 --> 00:36:25.200] So back in 2004, the cost for solar panels was approximately $5 to $7 per watt.
[00:36:25.520 --> 00:36:33.760] I know it's a little hard for most of us to understand watts and how many watts of each panel or whatever, but let's just use watts in that dollar figure to compare panels back then to today.
[00:36:33.760 --> 00:36:36.240] So $5 to $7 per watt back then.
[00:36:36.560 --> 00:36:39.040] And today we are at anybody?
[00:36:39.040 --> 00:36:40.000] $0.50.
[00:36:40.560 --> 00:36:42.800] 50 cents is the figure that I found.
[00:36:42.800 --> 00:36:44.000] You said 20 cents?
[00:36:44.480 --> 00:36:46.080] All right, that's really good, actually.
[00:36:46.240 --> 00:36:48.400] I hope you're right, and my figure is wrong here.
[00:36:48.400 --> 00:36:50.240] It's like a bad Avidan Costello thing.
[00:36:50.240 --> 00:36:52.240] It's like 4 cents per watt, per watt.
[00:36:52.240 --> 00:36:53.200] You tell me.
[00:36:53.840 --> 00:36:54.720] For what?
[00:36:54.720 --> 00:36:55.440] For what?
[00:36:55.440 --> 00:36:56.080] For what?
[00:36:57.360 --> 00:37:39.640] So that's a 90 over a 90 percent reduction in the cost to make solar to to to collect solar energy that is huge it's now the cheapest form of energy yeah without a doubt uh durability and lifespan 2004 the expected lifespan of solar panels was around 20 to 25 years uh there is definitely performance uh degrading happening approximately one percent uh degradation per year uh 2024 anybody have an idea of how long they'll let they last now a thousand episodes this one was disappointing so it was 20 to 25 in 2004 and now it's 25 to 30.
[00:37:39.800 --> 00:38:42.080] that's a big difference though i understand it's disappointing but that's that's a different nut to crack you know the slowing down the degradation but when you're talking about you know you talked about the price per per watt but now you've got to amortize that over the life tan lifetime of the solar panel right so you could look at it a number of different ways how long until the panel has paid for itself in the electricity that has that it has produced and then how long do you basically get free energy at that point tacking on an extra five years of free energy at the end is huge in terms of the economic benefits you know the return on investment of it so that it seems like a little bit but actually the economics of that are actually pretty big so the technology back then um monocrystalline and polycrystalline uh silicon panels right so you know in essence what happens when the sunlight hits the panels the the material that is in the panel literally turns the sunlight into voltage it's a it's incredible and we're very lucky that you know there's things out there.
[00:38:42.480 --> 00:38:44.480] Photoelectric effect discovered by Huge?
[00:38:44.680 --> 00:38:46.160] That guy, yeah, that guy did it.
[00:38:46.160 --> 00:38:46.640] Yeah.
[00:38:46.960 --> 00:38:48.240] It was awesome that he did it, too.
[00:38:48.240 --> 00:38:48.640] I really appreciate it.
[00:38:48.800 --> 00:38:49.120] Einstein.
[00:38:49.280 --> 00:38:50.160] He was Einstein.
[00:38:50.400 --> 00:38:50.800] Didn't he win?
[00:38:50.880 --> 00:38:52.000] Like I said, yeah, it was Einstein.
[00:38:52.240 --> 00:38:53.200] He won an award for that.
[00:38:53.760 --> 00:38:55.600] And he figured that out over a lunch.
[00:38:55.920 --> 00:38:56.720] It took him like three hours.
[00:38:56.720 --> 00:38:57.680] He's like, oh, yeah, I got it.
[00:38:57.680 --> 00:39:00.880] Yeah, we're going to convert the sun into energy and we're going to kill the world with nukes.
[00:39:00.880 --> 00:39:02.240] That's what we're going to do.
[00:39:02.240 --> 00:39:02.800] All right.
[00:39:02.800 --> 00:39:07.040] So, one-page paper, one of them is PhD and Nobel Prize.
[00:39:07.040 --> 00:39:07.760] Yep, yep.
[00:39:07.760 --> 00:39:09.280] Nothing for relativity, though.
[00:39:09.280 --> 00:39:09.840] Right.
[00:39:09.840 --> 00:39:17.520] So we are using the same technology today, but, and it gets a little technical, and I'm not going to even, like, no reason to really go into the details here.
[00:39:17.520 --> 00:39:22.640] Bottom line is, we've just been improving the monocrystalline and polycrystalline.
[00:39:22.640 --> 00:39:25.920] We're making it way more efficient than it was.
[00:39:26.240 --> 00:39:28.560] And they think that it's interesting.
[00:39:28.560 --> 00:39:30.640] You think about what's the future going to be.
[00:39:30.640 --> 00:39:40.160] And throughout the years of covering solar panels, because I'm a huge fan of it, is they keep saying, oh, it's going to stop at this, and then it creeps up a little bit.
[00:39:40.160 --> 00:39:42.240] Oh, it's going to stop at this, and then it creeps up a little bit.
[00:39:42.240 --> 00:39:46.560] But I do think that the 30% thing is going to stick around for quite a while.
[00:39:46.560 --> 00:39:48.080] So, yes and no.
[00:39:48.080 --> 00:39:55.280] The 29% is the theoretical, like in laws of physics, maximum for silicon-rigid solar panels.
[00:39:55.280 --> 00:39:56.880] But we're not stopping with silicon, right?
[00:39:56.880 --> 00:40:02.000] So we're developing perovskite, which I think the theoretical limit is in the upper 40s.
[00:40:02.000 --> 00:40:10.960] And then we're also doing the organic solar panels, which are just getting to like the 18% efficiency now, but they're really cheap and they're flexible.
[00:40:11.360 --> 00:40:17.840] And so they're basically, they may have their renaissance very, very soon.
[00:40:17.840 --> 00:40:20.720] But now they're also doing other things, right?
[00:40:20.720 --> 00:40:23.040] So they're layering the solar panels.
[00:40:23.040 --> 00:40:28.160] The idea is to trap those photons and you don't let them go until they turn into an electron, right?
[00:40:28.160 --> 00:40:29.640] So they're figuring out how to do that.
[00:40:29.880 --> 00:40:32.680] And there's no reason why we can't get efficiencies in the 50s.
[00:40:32.680 --> 00:40:33.160] That would be amazing.
[00:40:29.520 --> 00:40:36.280] Using some combination of layered perovskite and silicon.
[00:40:36.840 --> 00:40:37.640] That could be 50 years away.
[00:40:38.680 --> 00:40:39.400] No, no, no.
[00:40:40.680 --> 00:40:45.480] I think we'll probably be in the upper 20s by the end of the decade.
[00:40:45.480 --> 00:40:46.840] We'll be in the 30s.
[00:40:47.080 --> 00:40:49.640] I think it's almost like, interestingly, might track the year.
[00:40:49.640 --> 00:40:55.240] We'll be in the 30% efficiencies in the 30s, maybe get into the 40s and the 40s.
[00:40:55.640 --> 00:40:57.560] And then who knows where it's going to go from there?
[00:40:57.560 --> 00:41:07.640] But I think if we're extrapolating from laboratory findings to companies cranking out solar panels with those properties, there's like a five to ten year delay there.
[00:41:07.640 --> 00:41:10.040] And so we can extrapolate out that far.
[00:41:10.040 --> 00:41:17.000] But we already have like the proof of concept technology to get into at least the mid-30s or close to 40.
[00:41:17.160 --> 00:41:21.240] You're putting me into an existential crisis talking about these years.
[00:41:21.240 --> 00:41:23.800] The 20s and the 30s and the 40s.
[00:41:24.280 --> 00:41:25.880] Don't do that to me.
[00:41:26.440 --> 00:41:27.080] That's going to be awesome.
[00:41:27.320 --> 00:41:29.000] I don't like, say 2030.
[00:41:29.000 --> 00:41:30.200] Say 2040.
[00:41:31.560 --> 00:41:33.240] A few more things I got to get to real quick.
[00:41:33.240 --> 00:41:37.560] So energy production, 2004, 150 to 200 watts.
[00:41:37.560 --> 00:41:41.000] 2024, 350 to 450 watts.
[00:41:41.960 --> 00:41:42.680] Is that per panel?
[00:41:43.240 --> 00:41:44.200] I believe so, yeah.
[00:41:44.200 --> 00:41:46.760] Installation and integration.
[00:41:47.080 --> 00:41:50.520] Back in 2004, the infrastructure wasn't there.
[00:41:50.520 --> 00:41:51.800] Hooking it up to the grid.
[00:41:51.800 --> 00:41:53.320] What do you do with the electricity?
[00:41:53.320 --> 00:41:54.840] No batteries that can handle it.
[00:41:55.720 --> 00:41:57.560] All the deficiencies that we had back then.
[00:41:57.560 --> 00:41:59.640] And look at where we are today.
[00:41:59.640 --> 00:42:01.720] Anybody can get solar panels.
[00:42:01.720 --> 00:42:07.480] They're really expensive, but there's companies out there that will rent them to you essentially and give you lower cost and all that stuff.
[00:42:07.840 --> 00:42:14.200] Or they don't, you know, so you could lease them, but you could also, like, for what I did, because I have solar panels on my house.
[00:42:14.440 --> 00:42:15.760] No money down.
[00:42:14.840 --> 00:42:17.120] They just use my roof.
[00:42:17.280 --> 00:42:23.440] They put up the solar panels and I buy electricity from them at 20% cheaper than what I would otherwise be spending.
[00:42:23.440 --> 00:42:24.080] That's it.
[00:42:24.400 --> 00:42:25.600] So no money down.
[00:42:25.600 --> 00:42:34.160] But it is very easy to integrate solar panels into your house and the grid and your, you know, and all those technologies are nice right now.
[00:42:34.160 --> 00:42:34.560] Nice.
[00:42:34.560 --> 00:42:35.440] That's stupid work.
[00:42:35.440 --> 00:42:37.840] But they're in place and they work, which is fantastic.
[00:42:37.840 --> 00:42:38.560] Energy storage.
[00:42:38.560 --> 00:42:44.480] So in 2004, we had very rudimentary and expensive solar installations.
[00:42:44.480 --> 00:42:45.600] They didn't work that well.
[00:42:45.760 --> 00:42:47.280] They just didn't, they weren't there.
[00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:53.200] They were using lead-acid batteries, limited lifespan, limited capacities, just not good.
[00:42:53.200 --> 00:42:54.480] Today, we're really doing well.
[00:42:54.480 --> 00:42:59.440] Lithium-ion battery storage, you know, Tesla's power wall, LGs, chem batteries.
[00:42:59.760 --> 00:43:04.320] These systems are massively more efficient, have very long lifespans.
[00:43:04.320 --> 00:43:11.120] They allow the solar energy to be stored, you know, during, you know, you could use the solar energy at any time in those batteries.
[00:43:11.120 --> 00:43:15.360] You could store them for longer periods of time when you need them.
[00:43:15.680 --> 00:43:24.160] So this has significantly enhanced the reliability and also the versatility of solar panels because the batteries are the yin-yang with solar panels.
[00:43:24.160 --> 00:43:28.320] And, you know, like we've said this many times on the show, we need grid storage.
[00:43:28.320 --> 00:43:29.440] You know, it's great.
[00:43:29.440 --> 00:43:40.800] All these people are getting solar panels and everything, and they have these little batteries in their houses, but we do need some really big, significant grid storage, you know, battery centers that are going to really help load balance and all that stuff.
[00:43:40.800 --> 00:43:46.160] That's where big money is going to come in, and it's going to take a lot of time to do that.
[00:43:46.160 --> 00:43:47.360] The environmental impact.
[00:43:47.360 --> 00:44:02.360] So, the environmental impacts of producing solar panels was a big concern back in 2004, particularly with these energy-intensive processes that they were using back then to manufacture the silicon, and they're using lots of hazardous chemicals and all that stuff.
[00:43:59.840 --> 00:44:06.200] So, today we have lots of advances in manufacturing techniques.
[00:44:06.440 --> 00:44:13.880] We've dramatically reduced the energy it takes and the the resources that it takes in order to produce the solar panels.
[00:44:13.880 --> 00:44:17.400] And the industry has made a lot of strides in recycling old panels and everything.
[00:44:17.560 --> 00:44:21.320] We're doing all the things that they predicted that we would be doing, but they are actually happening.
[00:44:21.640 --> 00:44:29.480] Yeah, another way to look at that, so like I talked about the time for the money investment to get paid back, there's also a carbon payback time, right?
[00:44:29.480 --> 00:44:36.040] How long do you have to use a panel before you now have saved as much carbon as it took to make the panel in the first place?
[00:44:36.440 --> 00:44:38.200] And that is getting shorter and shorter.
[00:44:38.200 --> 00:44:40.120] That's only a couple of years now, too.
[00:44:40.120 --> 00:44:43.560] So, they're very environmentally efficient, which is great.
[00:44:43.560 --> 00:44:50.040] So, the market adoption in 2004, this was solar panels were a complete niche market.
[00:44:50.040 --> 00:44:51.320] Like, nobody was doing it.
[00:44:51.320 --> 00:44:52.680] You know, it was really weird.
[00:44:52.680 --> 00:44:56.760] People were like, you know, seeing solar panels was an odd thing for people.
[00:44:56.760 --> 00:45:00.280] People wouldn't had no interest in having them integrated into their homes.
[00:45:00.280 --> 00:45:05.640] You know, it was like a real, you know, it was a thing that people looked at and it was like, wow, what the hell are they doing?
[00:45:05.640 --> 00:45:09.160] Today, it's you know, it's mainstream, completely mainstream.
[00:45:09.160 --> 00:45:14.040] We have widespread adoption all over the world, residential, commercial.
[00:45:14.040 --> 00:45:17.000] We have utility-scale markets globally.
[00:45:17.240 --> 00:45:19.960] Solar power is a critical component to our energy today.
[00:45:20.440 --> 00:45:22.680] It's completely cooked into everything.
[00:45:23.160 --> 00:45:25.880] We rely on it now, and that's fantastic.
[00:45:25.880 --> 00:45:28.920] And the last thing I'll just quickly talk about is policy and incentives.
[00:45:28.920 --> 00:45:31.960] And the short version here, it's the same story as all the other ones.
[00:45:31.960 --> 00:45:36.040] Back then, governments were barely trickling funds into it and everything.
[00:45:36.040 --> 00:45:48.320] And today, governments can't get out of their way fast enough to figure out ways to use solar, decrease costs, and help companies obtain higher efficiencies by funding them to do the research and everything.
[00:45:48.560 --> 00:45:53.440] So this is a massive, massive success in the last 20 years.
[00:45:53.440 --> 00:45:56.480] It's one of the technologies that has really changed the most since we've industrialized.
[00:45:56.720 --> 00:46:01.360] Steve, what was the thing that made you decide to finally go with solar panels on your roof?
[00:46:01.360 --> 00:46:04.880] Was it, I mean, you explained that it's a pretty good deal, but was it like a commercial you saw?
[00:46:04.880 --> 00:46:08.800] Was it like you had wanted it all along, and then finally the pricing incentive was right?
[00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:13.120] So it was finding the right company that did it the way I wanted to do it.
[00:46:13.440 --> 00:46:16.800] So you had a concept in your mind of what you wanted to spend or not spend.
[00:46:16.800 --> 00:46:23.200] Yeah, plus it was also just like once I decided, this is something I want to do, I had to research it, and it took a long time.
[00:46:23.440 --> 00:46:27.520] And the big piece was the regulations, which is state by state, right?
[00:46:27.520 --> 00:46:30.960] Because if you have bad regulations in your estate, you can get screwed.
[00:46:30.960 --> 00:46:35.280] Because you can end up buying electricity that you don't use, right?
[00:46:35.280 --> 00:46:38.480] And then if you don't get full credit for it, right?
[00:46:38.480 --> 00:46:45.200] So in other words, like the company says you buy, well, you will put the solar panels on your roof, you buy all the electricity that they make.
[00:46:45.440 --> 00:46:46.720] If you use it, you use it.
[00:46:46.720 --> 00:46:50.160] If you don't, it goes to the grid, and you get credit for it from the electricity company.
[00:46:50.160 --> 00:46:56.480] But the electricity company could say, we're only going to give you half of what it's actually worth.
[00:46:56.480 --> 00:47:07.440] Or they'll say, and they're trying to pass laws, like in Florida, where the electricity company has to only pay you the wholesale cost of the electricity, not the retail cost.
[00:47:07.440 --> 00:47:12.480] So you're buying retail from them, and they're buying wholesale from you.
[00:47:12.480 --> 00:47:14.160] But they're not really giving you money.
[00:47:14.160 --> 00:47:18.080] They're just giving you credits for electricity that you're going to be buying from them later.
[00:47:18.080 --> 00:47:18.960] So it's a racket.
[00:47:19.000 --> 00:47:20.800] You know, they're just trying to protect their profits.
[00:47:21.000 --> 00:47:28.480] So, but like in Connecticut, where I live, we have grade A good regulations where they have to give me 100% credit for the electricity that they get.
[00:47:28.480 --> 00:47:31.320] So that means it's cost-effective for me, right?
[00:47:31.320 --> 00:47:34.280] But if you live in a bad state with bad regulation, you can get screwed.
[00:47:29.920 --> 00:47:37.400] So you gotta know that law before you do the investment.
[00:47:37.720 --> 00:47:42.440] There's a moment every parent remembers: the day their child takes off on two wheels.
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[00:49:08.680 --> 00:49:13.080] You probably think it's too soon to join AARP, right?
[00:49:13.080 --> 00:49:15.360] Well, let's take a minute to talk about it.
[00:49:15.360 --> 00:49:18.160] Where do you see yourself in 15 years?
[00:49:14.840 --> 00:49:22.240] More specifically, your career, your health, your social life.
[00:49:22.560 --> 00:49:25.200] What are you doing now to help you get there?
[00:49:25.200 --> 00:49:30.640] There are tons of ways for you to start preparing today for your future with AARP.
[00:49:30.640 --> 00:49:32.640] That dream job you've dreamt about?
[00:49:32.640 --> 00:49:36.800] Sign up for AARP reskilling courses to help make it a reality.
[00:49:36.800 --> 00:49:41.600] How about that active lifestyle you've only spoken about from the couch?
[00:49:41.600 --> 00:49:46.640] AARP has health tips and wellness tools to keep you moving for years to come.
[00:49:46.640 --> 00:49:50.560] But none of these experiences are without making friends along the way.
[00:49:50.560 --> 00:49:54.560] Connect with your community through AARP volunteer events.
[00:49:54.560 --> 00:49:58.960] So it's safe to say it's never too soon to join AARP.
[00:49:58.960 --> 00:50:03.120] They're here to help your money, health, and happiness live as long as you do.
[00:50:03.120 --> 00:50:07.360] That's why the younger you are, the more you need AARP.
[00:50:07.360 --> 00:50:11.600] Learn more at AARP.org/slash wise friend.
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[00:50:41.680 --> 00:50:42.960] All right.
[00:50:43.280 --> 00:50:48.480] Well, everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our sponsors this week, Rocket Money.
[00:50:48.480 --> 00:50:53.840] Steve, can you name every single subscription on your credit cards that you have right now?
[00:50:54.000 --> 00:50:55.120] That's a good question.
[00:50:55.360 --> 00:50:57.040] The answer is probably no.
[00:50:57.040 --> 00:50:59.760] Like, how many streaming services are you paying for?
[00:51:00.680 --> 00:51:01.560] You took too much time.
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[00:51:19.800 --> 00:51:33.560] Yeah, you can see all your subscriptions in one place, and their dashboard gives you a clear view of your expenses across all of your accounts so that you can easily create a personalized budget and get alerts if bills increase in price.
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[00:52:05.400 --> 00:52:08.120] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.
[00:52:08.440 --> 00:52:09.720] Let's move on.
[00:52:09.720 --> 00:52:12.040] Bob, this is another tech.
[00:52:12.120 --> 00:52:15.640] This is both a technology and a pseudoscience one wrapped into one.
[00:52:15.640 --> 00:52:19.000] Tell us about the history of fusion.
[00:52:19.000 --> 00:52:21.000] Cold fusion and hot fusion.
[00:52:21.000 --> 00:52:23.400] That's what I've been tasked to cover.
[00:52:23.400 --> 00:52:26.360] It's an interesting journey for both of these technologies.
[00:52:26.520 --> 00:52:27.800] I'll start with Cold Fusion.
[00:52:28.200 --> 00:52:30.520] I call it the Cold Fusion hubbub of 89.
[00:52:30.840 --> 00:52:31.800] Who remembers that?
[00:52:31.800 --> 00:52:33.080] Who remembers that?
[00:52:33.400 --> 00:52:34.600] All the old people raised their hands.
[00:52:36.120 --> 00:52:38.760] Can we do the clap instead of the visual thing for the podcast?
[00:52:38.760 --> 00:52:39.240] Okay, here we go.
[00:52:39.240 --> 00:52:39.800] Who remembers that?
[00:52:39.800 --> 00:52:40.120] Ready?
[00:52:40.120 --> 00:52:40.760] Yeah.
[00:52:41.040 --> 00:52:41.520] There we go.
[00:52:41.520 --> 00:52:41.720] Wow.
[00:52:42.840 --> 00:52:43.720] Who doesn't remember that?
[00:52:43.720 --> 00:52:44.080] Here we go.
[00:52:45.520 --> 00:52:46.080] Same amount of time.
[00:52:46.240 --> 00:52:46.720] About half.
[00:52:43.960 --> 00:52:47.600] About half.
[00:52:48.240 --> 00:52:52.720] So, cold fusion started in a lot of ways in the 1920s.
[00:52:52.720 --> 00:52:57.200] A lot of scientists, or at least what we saw Fleischmann and Pons do.
[00:52:57.200 --> 00:53:06.800] In the 1920s, scientists discovered that palladium, a heavy metal, palladium, was able to absorb a lot of hydrogen, an amazing amount of hydrogen.
[00:53:06.800 --> 00:53:13.760] And they were thinking, maybe if you get all this hydrogen in one place, something special could happen that could cause fusion.
[00:53:13.760 --> 00:53:20.400] Fast forward to the 1980s, electrochemist Martin Fleischmann rediscovered, like rediscovered this discovery.
[00:53:20.400 --> 00:53:26.400] And he brought in his buddy Stanley Pons, another electrochemist, and they said, let's see what we can do with this.
[00:53:26.800 --> 00:53:34.400] Can we create an experiment to take advantage of this palladium that can suck in hydrogen, deuterium, in an amazing way?
[00:53:34.640 --> 00:53:36.640] So they created their palladium experiment.
[00:53:36.640 --> 00:53:39.280] And I really took a deep dive into this experiment.
[00:53:39.520 --> 00:53:40.640] What was this really all about?
[00:53:40.640 --> 00:53:43.680] I never really dug really deep into it.
[00:53:43.680 --> 00:53:53.040] So palladium is special because it's got this unusual crystalline structure that is able to absorb hydrogen into it, 900 times its own volume.
[00:53:53.040 --> 00:53:56.080] It's really an amazing feat, if you think about it.
[00:53:56.160 --> 00:53:58.240] Something about the crystalline structure.
[00:53:58.480 --> 00:54:02.320] And also, the electrons themselves are very, very accommodating.
[00:54:02.560 --> 00:54:08.400] They actually interface with the hydrogen and shepherd them into the crystalline structure.
[00:54:08.400 --> 00:54:24.320] They were thinking that perhaps when all of this hydrogen gets in there, that there's some, that it could be more reactive, that it could be more organized in such a way that it can create some sort of low-temperature fusion going on here.
[00:54:24.320 --> 00:54:26.240] This is called catalytic fusion.
[00:54:26.240 --> 00:54:27.680] And this is a world-changing idea.
[00:54:27.680 --> 00:54:28.560] Think about it.
[00:54:28.560 --> 00:54:36.520] Labs across the world potentially being able to create fusion for very little money, because this is a very inexpensive laboratory setup.
[00:54:36.840 --> 00:54:39.480] This would be an amazing scenario.
[00:54:39.480 --> 00:54:41.800] Low temperature, low-pressure fusion.
[00:54:41.800 --> 00:54:45.480] That's just like, that's a holy grail that got everybody excited.
[00:54:45.480 --> 00:54:49.880] Just for a comparison, for fusion to happen in the sun, we're talking 27 million degrees.
[00:54:49.880 --> 00:54:52.760] And it doesn't even matter if it's Fahrenheit or Celsius, right?
[00:54:52.760 --> 00:54:54.760] We're up in the 27 million.
[00:54:54.760 --> 00:54:55.720] That's a lot.
[00:54:55.720 --> 00:54:57.400] So this is a huge difference.
[00:54:57.400 --> 00:55:00.600] Their public debut, March 1989, I remember that day.
[00:55:00.600 --> 00:55:03.400] They had a press conference, they had a scientific paper.
[00:55:03.720 --> 00:55:07.880] They claimed sustained nuclear fusion re
Prompt 2: Key Takeaways
Now please extract the key takeaways from the transcript content I provided.
Extract the most important key takeaways from this part of the conversation. Use a single sentence statement (the key takeaway) rather than milquetoast descriptions like "the hosts discuss...".
Limit the key takeaways to a maximum of 3. The key takeaways should be insightful and knowledge-additive.
IMPORTANT: Return ONLY valid JSON, no explanations or markdown. Ensure:
- All strings are properly quoted and escaped
- No trailing commas
- All braces and brackets are balanced
Format: {"key_takeaways": ["takeaway 1", "takeaway 2"]}
Prompt 3: Segments
Now identify 2-4 distinct topical segments from this part of the conversation.
For each segment, identify:
- Descriptive title (3-6 words)
- START timestamp when this topic begins (HH:MM:SS format)
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Most important Key takeaway from that segment. Key takeaway must be specific and knowledge-additive.
- Brief summary of the discussion
IMPORTANT: The timestamp should mark when the topic/segment STARTS, not a range. Look for topic transitions and conversation shifts.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted, no trailing commas:
{
"segments": [
{
"segment_title": "Topic Discussion",
"timestamp": "01:15:30",
"key_takeaway": "main point from this segment",
"segment_summary": "brief description of what was discussed"
}
]
}
Timestamp format: HH:MM:SS (e.g., 00:05:30, 01:22:45) marking the START of each segment.
Now scan the transcript content I provided for ACTUAL mentions of specific media titles:
Find explicit mentions of:
- Books (with specific titles)
- Movies (with specific titles)
- TV Shows (with specific titles)
- Music/Songs (with specific titles)
DO NOT include:
- Websites, URLs, or web services
- Other podcasts or podcast names
IMPORTANT:
- Only include items explicitly mentioned by name. Do not invent titles.
- Valid categories are: "Book", "Movie", "TV Show", "Music"
- Include the exact phrase where each item was mentioned
- Find the nearest proximate timestamp where it appears in the conversation
- THE TIMESTAMP OF THE MEDIA MENTION IS IMPORTANT - DO NOT INVENT TIMESTAMPS AND DO NOT MISATTRIBUTE TIMESTAMPS
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Timestamps are given as ranges, e.g. 01:13:42.520 --> 01:13:46.720. Use the EARLIER of the 2 timestamps in the range.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted and escaped, no trailing commas:
{
"media_mentions": [
{
"title": "Exact Title as Mentioned",
"category": "Book",
"author_artist": "N/A",
"context": "Brief context of why it was mentioned",
"context_phrase": "The exact sentence or phrase where it was mentioned",
"timestamp": "estimated time like 01:15:30"
}
]
}
If no media is mentioned, return: {"media_mentions": []}
Prompt 5: Context Setup
You are an expert data extractor tasked with analyzing a podcast transcript.
I will provide you with part 2 of 3 from a podcast transcript.
I will then ask you to extract different types of information from this content in subsequent messages. Please confirm you have received and understood the transcript content.
Transcript section:
s special because it's got this unusual crystalline structure that is able to absorb hydrogen into it, 900 times its own volume.
[00:53:53.040 --> 00:53:56.080] It's really an amazing feat, if you think about it.
[00:53:56.160 --> 00:53:58.240] Something about the crystalline structure.
[00:53:58.480 --> 00:54:02.320] And also, the electrons themselves are very, very accommodating.
[00:54:02.560 --> 00:54:08.400] They actually interface with the hydrogen and shepherd them into the crystalline structure.
[00:54:08.400 --> 00:54:24.320] They were thinking that perhaps when all of this hydrogen gets in there, that there's some, that it could be more reactive, that it could be more organized in such a way that it can create some sort of low-temperature fusion going on here.
[00:54:24.320 --> 00:54:26.240] This is called catalytic fusion.
[00:54:26.240 --> 00:54:27.680] And this is a world-changing idea.
[00:54:27.680 --> 00:54:28.560] Think about it.
[00:54:28.560 --> 00:54:36.520] Labs across the world potentially being able to create fusion for very little money, because this is a very inexpensive laboratory setup.
[00:54:36.840 --> 00:54:39.480] This would be an amazing scenario.
[00:54:39.480 --> 00:54:41.800] Low temperature, low-pressure fusion.
[00:54:41.800 --> 00:54:45.480] That's just like, that's a holy grail that got everybody excited.
[00:54:45.480 --> 00:54:49.880] Just for a comparison, for fusion to happen in the sun, we're talking 27 million degrees.
[00:54:49.880 --> 00:54:52.760] And it doesn't even matter if it's Fahrenheit or Celsius, right?
[00:54:52.760 --> 00:54:54.760] We're up in the 27 million.
[00:54:54.760 --> 00:54:55.720] That's a lot.
[00:54:55.720 --> 00:54:57.400] So this is a huge difference.
[00:54:57.400 --> 00:55:00.600] Their public debut, March 1989, I remember that day.
[00:55:00.600 --> 00:55:03.400] They had a press conference, they had a scientific paper.
[00:55:03.720 --> 00:55:07.880] They claimed sustained nuclear fusion reaction.
[00:55:07.880 --> 00:55:13.480] Their two major claims, though, was excess heat that apparently chemistry could not explain.
[00:55:13.480 --> 00:55:20.120] And they also claimed that there were nuclear byproducts like neutrons that are hallmarks of a fusion reaction.
[00:55:20.440 --> 00:55:23.080] My memory is we thought that was bullshit from the get-go.
[00:55:23.080 --> 00:55:24.280] Yeah, we really did.
[00:55:24.280 --> 00:55:33.320] And the biggest complaint, the biggest complaint is that how are you going to get using low temperature and low pressure, how are you going to get atoms close enough to fuse?
[00:55:33.320 --> 00:55:34.120] That's the biggest thing.
[00:55:34.520 --> 00:55:37.000] Now, imagine you've got two atoms that you want to fuse together.
[00:55:37.000 --> 00:55:40.600] The electronic clouds, they don't want to do, they don't want to cooperate.
[00:55:40.600 --> 00:55:44.120] You're going to need high pressure and high temperature.
[00:55:44.120 --> 00:55:51.000] But even if you can get past the electron cloud, the protons, they don't, like charges, they don't play well together.
[00:55:51.000 --> 00:55:52.680] So what were they saying at that time?
[00:55:52.680 --> 00:55:56.440] So, but I'll finish with the scientists were like, this is ridiculous.
[00:55:56.440 --> 00:55:58.760] That's why they had such a knee-jerk reaction.
[00:55:58.760 --> 00:56:04.440] So they were saying, Feynman said in his press release, what we have done is to open the door of a new research area.
[00:56:04.440 --> 00:56:11.480] Our indications are that the discovery will be relatively easy to make it into a usable technology generating heat and power.
[00:56:11.880 --> 00:56:13.720] University of Utah had an interesting quote.
[00:56:13.720 --> 00:56:17.040] They were like all in, they were totally all in with this, and I'm sure they really regret it.
[00:56:17.280 --> 00:56:23.040] They said, it's a breakthrough process that has the potential to provide inexhaustible sources of energy.
[00:56:23.040 --> 00:56:25.200] Okay, so but what were the scientists saying?
[00:56:25.200 --> 00:56:27.920] Some of the scientists at the time were saying, Dr.
[00:56:27.920 --> 00:56:34.800] Nathan Lewis in Caltech, he's like, It's a simple chemical reaction that has nothing to do with fusion.
[00:56:34.800 --> 00:56:36.320] Radiochemist Dr.
[00:56:36.320 --> 00:56:39.680] Edmund Storms said, many people see only what they want to see.
[00:56:39.760 --> 00:56:42.160] Very interesting, skeptical point, right there.
[00:56:42.160 --> 00:56:48.080] At some point in the history of any new idea, the problem no longer involves logic, but is psychological.
[00:56:48.080 --> 00:56:55.920] My favorite quote from Ronald Parker, nuclear scientist at MIT, he said, This is scientific schlock, maybe fraud.
[00:56:55.920 --> 00:56:57.760] So that's what he was saying at the time.
[00:56:57.760 --> 00:57:02.320] So, like I said, they were skeptical because this goes against what we know about nuclear physics.
[00:57:02.320 --> 00:57:05.120] And by the way, these guys were electrochemists.
[00:57:05.120 --> 00:57:07.680] They were not nuclear physicists at all.
[00:57:08.080 --> 00:57:15.040] They weren't even looking for neutrons until a nuclear physicist said, guys, you guys kind of need to look for neutrons, right?
[00:57:15.360 --> 00:57:17.760] Only then did they even think of doing it.
[00:57:18.000 --> 00:57:23.760] They really should have, they really should have partnered with somebody who was more of an expert in that specific field.
[00:57:24.160 --> 00:57:27.360] This was interesting, and don't cut this out of the show later on, Steve.
[00:57:28.320 --> 00:57:29.360] This was fascinating.
[00:57:29.360 --> 00:57:36.320] If somebody says cold fusion is impossible, theoretically, there is an interesting way that they could make it happen.
[00:57:36.560 --> 00:57:39.760] They probably won't, but this would work.
[00:57:40.160 --> 00:57:41.120] You've heard of muons.
[00:57:41.280 --> 00:57:45.200] Muons are essentially very heavy electrons.
[00:57:45.200 --> 00:57:51.040] If we were able, and we could do this if we wanted to, we could take hydrogen atoms and replace the electrons with muons.
[00:57:51.040 --> 00:57:57.200] And that means you've got a very lightweight electron over here, but if you had a muon, it would be down here next to the nucleus.
[00:57:57.200 --> 00:57:59.920] So you would basically be shrinking the hydrogen atoms.
[00:58:00.840 --> 00:58:07.960] And because they would be so much closer, you could have spontaneous cold fusion happening if we could set that up properly.
[00:58:07.960 --> 00:58:11.640] The problem is, of course, is that muons are incredibly expensive to create.
[00:58:11.640 --> 00:58:16.040] It would cost more money to create the muons than you would get out of the cold fusion.
[00:58:16.280 --> 00:58:16.920] More energy.
[00:58:16.920 --> 00:58:17.400] More energy.
[00:58:17.480 --> 00:58:17.800] Right.
[00:58:17.800 --> 00:58:18.360] What did I say?
[00:58:18.360 --> 00:58:19.160] You said money.
[00:58:19.160 --> 00:58:19.640] Money.
[00:58:19.640 --> 00:58:20.200] Okay.
[00:58:20.200 --> 00:58:22.440] So that's so fascinating to me.
[00:58:22.680 --> 00:58:27.320] Yeah, so basically it would be a net negative in terms of the energy of that process.
[00:58:27.320 --> 00:58:31.240] Cold fusion would be happening, you know, but it's not going to be producing a net energy.
[00:58:31.480 --> 00:58:33.000] And they would only last for two microseconds.
[00:58:33.000 --> 00:58:34.920] So that's another complication.
[00:58:35.240 --> 00:58:36.360] Another complication.
[00:58:36.600 --> 00:58:40.360] Not a deal killer, but we cannot create enough of them to make that practical.
[00:58:40.360 --> 00:58:41.880] So maybe something for the future.
[00:58:41.880 --> 00:58:42.520] I don't know.
[00:58:42.520 --> 00:58:45.960] Bob just said two microseconds is not a deal killer, just by the way.
[00:58:45.960 --> 00:58:46.120] No.
[00:58:46.360 --> 00:58:47.800] Something lasting two microseconds.
[00:58:47.960 --> 00:58:48.760] Not for physicists, baby.
[00:58:49.800 --> 00:58:50.280] All right.
[00:58:50.280 --> 00:58:55.640] In these scenarios, it's helpful to say, what would we expect to happen if cold fusion were real?
[00:58:55.640 --> 00:58:56.680] What would we expect to happen?
[00:58:56.680 --> 00:58:58.760] And in one word, it's replication.
[00:58:58.760 --> 00:59:02.360] And there was a very interesting episode three years before this, or four years.
[00:59:02.360 --> 00:59:05.160] Do you remember high-temperature superconductivity, Steve?
[00:59:05.160 --> 00:59:06.600] That was another huge story.
[00:59:06.600 --> 00:59:09.560] They came up with a new class of high-temperature superconductors.
[00:59:09.560 --> 00:59:14.760] I mean, not high-high, but it was, you know, within liquid nitrogen, which was a huge, huge increase.
[00:59:14.760 --> 00:59:17.720] So what happened after that major discovery?
[00:59:17.720 --> 00:59:21.800] Hundreds of labs throughout the world were able to replicate.
[00:59:21.800 --> 00:59:26.520] They were able to, they took the recipe, they made the high-temperature superconductor, they made it happen.
[00:59:26.520 --> 00:59:28.120] IBM replicated it.
[00:59:28.200 --> 00:59:29.960] University of Tokyo replicated it.
[00:59:29.960 --> 00:59:32.360] Max Planck Institute in Germany replicated it.
[00:59:32.360 --> 00:59:36.600] And the University of Chicago replicated it back in 1986.
[00:59:36.600 --> 00:59:37.960] Good job.
[00:59:38.600 --> 00:59:41.160] So how did replication go for cold fusion?
[00:59:41.160 --> 00:59:43.480] In one word, it was a shit show.
[00:59:43.480 --> 00:59:45.680] It was horrible.
[00:59:46.240 --> 00:59:47.840] Most labs could not do work.
[00:59:49.200 --> 00:59:50.320] Shit show one word.
[00:59:50.480 --> 00:59:51.200] Okay, one word.
[00:59:44.760 --> 00:59:51.760] Yes.
[00:59:52.000 --> 00:59:52.640] Hyphenated?
[00:59:53.040 --> 00:59:53.440] It's one word.
[00:59:54.560 --> 00:59:55.920] It's a shit show.
[00:59:55.920 --> 00:59:56.640] How much?
[00:59:56.880 --> 01:00:04.560] So most labs could not, they were looking at the recipe, which wasn't a good recipe, by the way, and they couldn't replicate it.
[01:00:04.560 --> 01:00:11.760] Some labs claimed that they were able to replicate it, but they didn't even agree with each other on what you needed to replicate it.
[01:00:11.760 --> 01:00:13.920] And then some of them retracted their replication.
[01:00:13.920 --> 01:00:15.520] It was really, really horrible.
[01:00:15.520 --> 01:00:21.520] Then when you looked a layer deeper, they looked at the neutron equipment that they were using, and it was faulty.
[01:00:21.520 --> 01:00:27.360] So you couldn't even trust their neutron data that they were getting, which was, that they were getting, which still was kind of pathetic.
[01:00:27.520 --> 01:00:30.400] The number of neutrons they were getting were not what you would expect.
[01:00:31.200 --> 01:00:38.720] The famous excess heat measurement turns out that that probably wasn't even a thing because they just estimated.
[01:00:38.720 --> 01:00:42.560] They looked at their experiment and they estimated what the heat was.
[01:00:42.560 --> 01:00:44.960] And they weren't even necessarily right about that.
[01:00:44.960 --> 01:00:47.600] So they seemed to be wrong about so much.
[01:00:47.600 --> 01:00:50.240] But for me, the coup de grace, is that how you pronounce it, Steve?
[01:00:50.240 --> 01:00:50.800] Coup de grace.
[01:00:50.880 --> 01:00:51.520] Coup de grease.
[01:00:51.680 --> 01:00:56.000] Was for five, because everyone, all the scientists back then were saying, we need to replicate this.
[01:00:56.000 --> 01:00:57.520] Your instructions really suck.
[01:00:57.520 --> 01:00:58.960] You need to give us good instructions.
[01:00:58.960 --> 01:01:00.000] And they refused to do it.
[01:01:00.000 --> 01:01:00.640] Why?
[01:01:00.640 --> 01:01:02.720] Because they wanted to patent this process.
[01:01:02.720 --> 01:01:06.000] So they didn't want to communicate too much information to the other scientists.
[01:01:06.000 --> 01:01:07.280] And that, of course, is horrible.
[01:01:07.360 --> 01:01:08.960] That's not how you do science.
[01:01:08.960 --> 01:01:15.120] So they allowed somebody to come in to do five weeks of testing on Fleischman and Pond's own equipment.
[01:01:15.600 --> 01:01:16.640] I don't know why they let him in.
[01:01:16.640 --> 01:01:17.440] They let him in.
[01:01:17.440 --> 01:01:19.200] He worked at it for five weeks.
[01:01:19.280 --> 01:01:23.200] Could not replicate their results with their own equipment.
[01:01:23.200 --> 01:01:26.960] To me, that was just like the death blow right there.
[01:01:26.960 --> 01:01:35.320] And so soon after that, 19, let's see, 1990, the next year, American Physical Society said that the claims are unsubstantiated.
[01:01:29.840 --> 01:01:37.080] And that was a huge killer for it.
[01:01:37.400 --> 01:01:40.440] 1994, the U.S.
[01:01:40.440 --> 01:01:43.000] Department of Energy had similar results.
[01:01:43.000 --> 01:01:48.120] They said that there is no evidence supporting their claims of excess heat production.
[01:01:48.200 --> 01:01:53.160] 2004, National Academy of Sciences looked at it again, again and again and again.
[01:01:53.400 --> 01:01:54.440] There was nothing here.
[01:01:54.440 --> 01:01:55.800] There was really nothing here.
[01:01:55.800 --> 01:01:57.320] And then, okay, this was interesting.
[01:01:57.320 --> 01:02:03.560] 2007, an Italian researcher, Andrea Rossi, claims to have developed a working cold fusion device.
[01:02:03.560 --> 01:02:06.600] The energy catalyzer, the ECAT.
[01:02:07.000 --> 01:02:10.280] Have you heard about that since 2007?
[01:02:10.280 --> 01:02:11.640] No, nobody's heard of that, right?
[01:02:11.640 --> 01:02:13.640] Because it was baloney.
[01:02:14.040 --> 01:02:15.880] And that's how it's been since then.
[01:02:15.880 --> 01:02:23.800] Up until this day, you've got it's still being researched, and you won't see cold fusion, though, because those words will not get you anywhere.
[01:02:23.800 --> 01:02:28.440] So they call it L-E-N-R, low-energy nuclear reactions.
[01:02:28.440 --> 01:02:33.400] That's a euphemism that they use for it because cold fusion is death.
[01:02:33.400 --> 01:02:37.720] Google, Google spent a lot of money trying to replicate it in 2019.
[01:02:38.200 --> 01:02:40.200] Why is Google looking at this in 2019?
[01:02:40.200 --> 01:02:40.840] They failed.
[01:02:40.840 --> 01:02:42.040] They failed to find it.
[01:02:42.040 --> 01:02:47.000] And there's still millions of dollars being spent on this trying to find this holy grail.
[01:02:47.720 --> 01:02:49.720] I think it's the allure of the payoff.
[01:02:49.720 --> 01:02:50.600] Absolutely, absolutely.
[01:02:51.240 --> 01:03:05.240] And just as a quick aside, because I had to listen to or read, I read an article a few other, I listened to it or read it, but it was about the psychology of venture capitalists, which is to invest in a lot of crap, hoping that one thing hits.
[01:03:05.240 --> 01:03:13.720] And the thing is, the payoff could be so high that orders of magnitude more than cover all the losses.
[01:03:14.040 --> 01:03:20.720] So you could see a lot of VC investing in this as just one of many lottery tickets.
[01:03:20.880 --> 01:03:21.360] You know what I mean?
[01:03:21.360 --> 01:03:23.280] Like, if it hits, I want to be part of it, right?
[01:03:23.280 --> 01:03:24.000] I want to miss out on that.
[01:03:24.880 --> 01:03:33.600] But there's a big difference between investing in a bunch of lottery tickets knowing that someone eventually is going to get the powerball and investing a lot of lottery tickets when you know that it's not possible for them.
[01:03:33.600 --> 01:03:33.920] It's not possible.
[01:03:34.080 --> 01:03:35.040] Yeah, you're chasing a lot of tickets.
[01:03:36.400 --> 01:03:37.200] Because it's pseudoscience.
[01:03:37.280 --> 01:03:37.600] You're right.
[01:03:37.680 --> 01:03:39.920] If you want a low probability, it's pseudoscience.
[01:03:41.120 --> 01:03:44.000] These are companies that have many scientists working at them.
[01:03:44.400 --> 01:03:45.680] Google should be strange.
[01:03:46.720 --> 01:03:53.680] If I bought a lotta ticket and it said the laws of physics are against you winning lotto, I would not be buying any lotto tickets.
[01:03:54.080 --> 01:03:57.120] It's amazing to me that people will throw millions at this.
[01:03:57.120 --> 01:04:01.680] You know, unless it's muon-catalyzed fusion, don't go anywhere near cold fusion.
[01:04:01.680 --> 01:04:03.200] All right, hot fusion.
[01:04:03.200 --> 01:04:04.240] Hot fusion.
[01:04:04.240 --> 01:04:08.800] This has been, this was a, we've lived through a lot of hot fusion.
[01:04:08.800 --> 01:04:16.560] It's been a very frustrating journey, but there actually has been a lot of success, especially lately.
[01:04:16.560 --> 01:04:20.080] And of course, the goal of hot fusion is very tantalizing, right?
[01:04:20.080 --> 01:04:26.960] It's the allure, you understand the allure of this because even though it's so complicated, there's an unlimited, near unlimited fuel supply.
[01:04:26.960 --> 01:04:31.040] The radioactivity is trivial compared to fission.
[01:04:31.040 --> 01:04:35.040] The energy density using fusion is a million times chemical energy.
[01:04:35.040 --> 01:04:36.080] And it's carbon-free.
[01:04:36.080 --> 01:04:37.600] Hello, carbon-free.
[01:04:37.600 --> 01:04:52.160] So the idea, very basically, the idea with hot fusion is that you've got lighter elements that fuse together to create a heavier element with a little bit of extra mass energy left over, and that left over is what we want.
[01:04:52.160 --> 01:04:55.040] We want that leftover and that leftover energy.
[01:04:55.040 --> 01:05:01.080] Kinetic energy is turned to heat, the heat is turned to steam, the steam turns the turbines, then you get electricity from that.
[01:05:01.400 --> 01:05:02.760] That's what we want to do with it.
[01:04:59.840 --> 01:05:03.640] That's the goal.
[01:05:03.960 --> 01:05:12.280] The idea that hot fusion was happening in the sun and what was happening was 1930s, Hans Beth, B-E-T-H-E.
[01:05:12.360 --> 01:05:14.120] How do you pronounce B-E-T-H-E?
[01:05:14.200 --> 01:05:15.000] Bethe?
[01:05:15.000 --> 01:05:16.360] I don't know how to pronounce his last name.
[01:05:17.240 --> 01:05:17.720] Beta.
[01:05:19.000 --> 01:05:20.360] That's how you spell his name.
[01:05:20.360 --> 01:05:20.760] Awesome.
[01:05:20.760 --> 01:05:21.560] All right.
[01:05:22.840 --> 01:05:24.680] Bob should just call you a beta.
[01:05:26.680 --> 01:05:32.760] He's the first one to detail, to theorize in detail that nucleosynthesis was happening in the sun.
[01:05:32.760 --> 01:05:34.920] That's where the sun is powering itself.
[01:05:34.920 --> 01:05:38.040] And so this is gravitational confinement fusion.
[01:05:38.040 --> 01:05:40.280] You get a lot of mass, you get a lot of gravity.
[01:05:40.680 --> 01:05:42.680] That's gravitational confinement.
[01:05:42.680 --> 01:05:45.560] 1952, the first hydrogen bomb.
[01:05:45.960 --> 01:05:48.520] That's man-made, but it's uncontrolled fusion.
[01:05:48.520 --> 01:05:51.640] So we're not, that's out of scope for this discussion.
[01:05:51.640 --> 01:05:54.840] 1951, this was surprising to me and Steve.
[01:05:54.840 --> 01:06:02.760] 1951 was the first controlled fusion reaction using a device called the Z-Pinch using a magnetic field.
[01:06:02.760 --> 01:06:10.920] Magnetic confinement fusion, that's the second way to fuse elements, magnetic confinement using a magnetic field.
[01:06:10.920 --> 01:06:13.400] It lasted only a couple of microseconds.
[01:06:13.640 --> 01:06:15.240] It was unstable.
[01:06:16.120 --> 01:06:20.440] Better ideas surfaced, like the Takamak, which I'm sure a lot of people have heard about.
[01:06:20.440 --> 01:06:21.880] That's in 1954.
[01:06:21.880 --> 01:06:34.040] The Takamak design was born using a toroidal or a donut-shaped magnetic field to confine plasma, not allowing the plasma to escape, and where the fusion is happening inside there.
[01:06:34.040 --> 01:06:37.080] And the next major milestone was in the 70s.
[01:06:37.080 --> 01:06:39.800] There's lots of milestones, but this one was big for this discussion.
[01:06:39.800 --> 01:06:45.000] In the 70s, early 70s, inertial confinement fusion design was first proposed.
[01:06:45.200 --> 01:06:55.680] So inertial confinement basically throws a lot of energy onto a fuel pellet that causes massive energy deposition right there that causes shock waves.
[01:06:55.680 --> 01:06:59.200] And the inertia of the shock waves going in, that's what's confining it.
[01:06:59.200 --> 01:07:03.040] That's why it's called inertial confinement, and you can get fusion inside there.
[01:07:03.040 --> 01:07:07.760] So let me go through some of these quotes, though, some people were saying about fusion, this type of hot fusion.
[01:07:07.760 --> 01:07:16.880] Albert Einstein in the 1930s said, the fusion of nuclei is an interesting theoretical problem, but it's not likely to become a practical energy source in our lifetimes.
[01:07:16.880 --> 01:07:18.400] You can't really disagree with that.
[01:07:18.400 --> 01:07:21.520] But let's go to Stephen Hawking in the 1990s.
[01:07:21.520 --> 01:07:25.920] I have doubts about whether fusion energy will ever become a practical source of power.
[01:07:25.920 --> 01:07:29.360] The challenges are beyond our current technological capabilities.
[01:07:29.520 --> 01:07:32.400] You can't really disagree with that at that time.
[01:07:32.400 --> 01:07:38.480] But the biggest joke that I'm sure everybody has heard about is this quote: that who knows where it first came from.
[01:07:38.480 --> 01:07:43.280] Fusion is 30 years away, we're 50 years away, and always will be.
[01:07:43.600 --> 01:07:44.560] That's the quote.
[01:07:44.560 --> 01:07:45.840] That's the quote everybody's heard.
[01:07:45.840 --> 01:07:50.400] I've been hearing that for decades, and it always kind of pissed me off.
[01:07:50.400 --> 01:07:51.680] But where did that quote come from?
[01:07:51.680 --> 01:08:07.360] It came because if you go through the history, there's been so many stops and starts, so many dead ends, so many failed promises, and pissing people off that the increase in technological sophistication, the end results, weren't happening.
[01:08:07.600 --> 01:08:09.280] So that's why people just get frustrated.
[01:08:09.280 --> 01:08:11.520] Oh, it's always going to be 50 years away.
[01:08:11.520 --> 01:08:16.640] And then the National Ignition Facility had their breakthrough in 2022.
[01:08:17.120 --> 01:08:19.360] This was really amazing.
[01:08:19.360 --> 01:08:22.000] So they used an inertial confinement system.
[01:08:22.000 --> 01:08:29.920] They have 192 very powerful lasers hitting a little nugget of fuel, and they actually experienced ignition for the first time.
[01:08:31.000 --> 01:08:41.880] This was a self-sustaining fusion reaction, and that basically means that they had two mega joules go in to this nugget and three mega joules come out.
[01:08:42.520 --> 01:08:43.480] Where did that come from?
[01:08:43.880 --> 01:08:45.240] That was fusion happening.
[01:08:45.240 --> 01:08:50.440] Now, don't get me started about the fact that what about all the power that they generated outside of that nugget?
[01:08:50.440 --> 01:08:53.000] That was 300 megajoules, so it's not efficient.
[01:08:53.000 --> 01:08:54.360] We know it's not efficient.
[01:08:54.360 --> 01:08:56.920] It's incredibly inefficient, but it happened.
[01:08:56.920 --> 01:09:00.760] We were able to get more energy out than what went into that specific area.
[01:09:00.760 --> 01:09:08.840] Jill Ruby, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, said on that day, Monday, December 5th, 2022 was an important day in science.
[01:09:08.840 --> 01:09:17.640] Reaching ignition in the controlled fusion experiment is an achievement that has come after more than 60 years of global research, development, engineering, and experimentation.
[01:09:17.640 --> 01:09:21.080] Okay, so what's going on with the current Takamaks?
[01:09:21.240 --> 01:09:27.480] I think they have a brighter future than inertial confinement because these are meant to be commercially viable.
[01:09:27.480 --> 01:09:31.800] The inertial confinement is not really designed to be commercially viable.
[01:09:31.800 --> 01:09:33.800] This is an experiment in nuclear physics.
[01:09:33.800 --> 01:09:37.080] They don't want to create a reactor that can then power the world.
[01:09:37.080 --> 01:09:43.480] Scaling that up would not be impossible, but it'd be extremely difficult compared to a Takamak design.
[01:09:44.120 --> 01:09:48.200] You've heard of EDER, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor Project.
[01:09:48.520 --> 01:09:50.680] That's the largest one in existence.
[01:09:50.680 --> 01:09:52.840] 35 countries have been working on it.
[01:09:52.840 --> 01:09:58.040] It looks very promising, but not as promising as it used to.
[01:09:58.040 --> 01:10:00.280] Now they're saying that there's been massive delays.
[01:10:00.280 --> 01:10:04.600] They might not really make any progress until 2039.
[01:10:04.920 --> 01:10:10.200] So I'm afraid that this big one is going to become irrelevant at some point.
[01:10:10.200 --> 01:10:11.880] It's really frustrating.
[01:10:11.880 --> 01:10:15.280] I have a lot more hope in MIT's Spark reactor.
[01:10:15.280 --> 01:10:16.560] They've got a Takamak.
[01:10:14.840 --> 01:10:17.840] That's using the latest tech.
[01:10:18.400 --> 01:10:28.080] That's using the most advanced technology, where the other one, Eater, is basically based on technology that's a lot older than what MIT is doing.
[01:10:28.080 --> 01:10:31.360] So MIT's Takamak can be much, much smaller.
[01:10:31.360 --> 01:10:33.280] It's designed to be commercial.
[01:10:33.600 --> 01:10:34.560] It's simpler.
[01:10:34.560 --> 01:10:35.520] It's cheaper.
[01:10:35.760 --> 01:10:38.800] Their superconducting magnets are amazingly powerful.
[01:10:39.600 --> 01:10:48.080] When they tested their new superconducting magnet, they said that the cost per watt of a fusion reactor dropped by a factor of 40 in one day.
[01:10:48.240 --> 01:10:52.720] If we're going to see a commercial fusion reactor, I think it could be this one.
[01:10:52.720 --> 01:10:54.800] This one seems very, very promising.
[01:10:54.800 --> 01:11:05.360] All right, so the bottom line after all of this is that more researchers are more confident that we are going to have a fusion reactor at some point in the near future.
[01:11:05.840 --> 01:11:09.520] We know, at the very least, we know that controlled fusion works.
[01:11:09.520 --> 01:11:11.040] We experienced ignition.
[01:11:11.440 --> 01:11:20.080] I've seen plans for this inertial confinement design, plans to make it actually a viable reactor in a lot of ways.
[01:11:20.080 --> 01:11:20.880] So what do you think, Bob?
[01:11:20.960 --> 01:11:22.080] Like 30 years?
[01:11:24.800 --> 01:11:34.640] I think that we've reached a point where maybe we might be at 30 years now, but you could say next year, 29 years, and the year after that, 28 years, potentially.
[01:11:35.600 --> 01:11:39.120] But, but, no, I think the writing's on the wall.
[01:11:39.120 --> 01:11:54.640] When you experience ignition, I mean, that's such a major breakthrough that it's, I think we will see a working, a working Tacomac reactor, but, but, the big but there is that it may never be commercially viable.
[01:11:54.640 --> 01:12:04.680] With solar and wind and all these other ways of producing power, I think a nuclear reactor will could probably never be commercially viable.
[01:12:04.760 --> 01:12:10.280] It would be just too expensive, and we'll never see it proliferate on the Earth.
[01:12:10.280 --> 01:12:15.560] I think we will definitely see them in space, in rockets, because they don't care.
[01:12:15.560 --> 01:12:19.720] You don't care if it's super efficient in your rocket.
[01:12:19.720 --> 01:12:25.640] All you know is that a fusion rocket is going to get you to Mars in like four weeks or whatever it is.
[01:12:25.640 --> 01:12:30.760] So, I think we're going to see fusion reactors in space, maybe not on Earth.
[01:12:30.760 --> 01:12:33.800] If they can make it commercially viable, that would be fantastic.
[01:12:33.800 --> 01:12:36.280] But it's looking now that it's just far too complex.
[01:12:36.280 --> 01:12:38.840] But we'll see what MI could do with their simpler design.
[01:12:39.240 --> 01:12:41.240] So, that's my take on fusion.
[01:12:41.880 --> 01:12:52.040] It sounds like you've come around more to my point of view, because Bob and I have been arguing about this for decades, about how long it's going to take to get to a commercial fusion reactor.
[01:12:52.040 --> 01:12:57.240] I think if we do get there, it's going to be the end of this century or longer.
[01:12:57.480 --> 01:13:01.960] Even that, as Bob says, it may be, it'll be much, much longer than that.
[01:13:02.760 --> 01:13:08.200] There may be a point where it's technically possible, but nobody's going to do it because it just would cost way too much money.
[01:13:08.680 --> 01:13:15.160] I think we'll see in the lifetime of many people here, we'll see a full-scale working reactor.
[01:13:15.160 --> 01:13:18.840] But like I said, it's not necessarily going to ever be commercially viable.
[01:13:19.320 --> 01:13:25.400] Producing net energy, like really net energy, not the only if you count the core energy?
[01:13:25.400 --> 01:13:32.360] Because like you said, when we got to ignition, we're still 300 factors away from producing net energy.
[01:13:32.360 --> 01:13:33.840] That's massive efficiency.
[01:13:33.840 --> 01:13:34.360] We need to.
[01:13:34.520 --> 01:13:34.760] It is.
[01:13:35.080 --> 01:13:47.360] That's why, even though you could, even though you could scale up and make the inertial confinement more efficient, I think the Takamax Steve is going to, that's the one, that's the one that's designed to be commercially available.
[01:13:47.360 --> 01:13:50.800] I think we could, but it still might be too complex and too expensive.
[01:13:44.440 --> 01:13:50.880] Okay.
[01:13:51.360 --> 01:13:53.040] Can I tell a quick Cold Fusion story?
[01:13:53.040 --> 01:13:53.200] Yes.
[01:13:53.520 --> 01:13:55.440] So years ago, I played this thing.
[01:13:55.760 --> 01:13:57.040] It was a comedy festival.
[01:13:57.040 --> 01:14:00.160] It was called the Cold Fusion Comedy Festival.
[01:14:00.160 --> 01:14:02.160] And it had nothing to do with Cold Fusion.
[01:14:02.160 --> 01:14:04.000] It's just they called it that for whatever reason.
[01:14:04.000 --> 01:14:04.640] They called it that.
[01:14:04.640 --> 01:14:09.600] And they asked if I wanted to do a couple of my songs, kind of to be a musical interlude between the stand-up comedians.
[01:14:09.680 --> 01:14:10.800] I was like, sure.
[01:14:10.800 --> 01:14:14.400] And I thought, okay, I'm doing the Cold Fusion Comedy Festival.
[01:14:14.400 --> 01:14:16.400] I have to do like a Cold Fusion joke.
[01:14:16.400 --> 01:14:21.280] I have to do one cold fusion joke that no one will get.
[01:14:21.600 --> 01:14:26.080] And I said, I'm going to do a Cold Fusion joke because this is the Cold Fusion Comedy Festival.
[01:14:26.080 --> 01:14:28.000] And none of you are going to get this joke.
[01:14:28.000 --> 01:14:32.000] And it's going to be so great because none of you, it's going to, I'm going to shit the bed.
[01:14:32.000 --> 01:14:32.960] This is going to be great.
[01:14:32.960 --> 01:14:36.160] So I said, so these two realtors are talking to each other, right?
[01:14:36.160 --> 01:14:41.520] And the one realtor says to the other realtor, he says, I sold that house on the lake.
[01:14:41.840 --> 01:14:44.400] And the first realtor was like, you sold the house on the lake?
[01:14:44.400 --> 01:14:46.240] He's like, yeah, I sold the house on the lake.
[01:14:46.240 --> 01:14:52.320] He said, but that house on the lake, the dock was all like, it was just all messed up.
[01:14:52.320 --> 01:14:53.360] Like, who bought that house?
[01:14:53.360 --> 01:14:58.720] And he said, these two guys, Pons and Fleischman, they bought this house with the messed up dock.
[01:14:58.720 --> 01:15:03.040] And the guy said, why would they buy the house on the lake without the messed up dock?
[01:15:03.120 --> 01:15:08.080] And he said, well, everybody knows that Pons and Fleischman don't believe in peer review.
[01:15:12.880 --> 01:15:14.320] It's a good joke, right?
[01:15:17.200 --> 01:15:18.080] So here's what happened.
[01:15:18.080 --> 01:15:19.840] So I'm going to say the punchline.
[01:15:19.840 --> 01:15:25.280] And then just from just from the back, you sir right there with that sort of green t-shirt and the yeah, yeah, you just look down.
[01:15:25.280 --> 01:15:32.520] Just like when I finished, when I finished saying the joke, just you by yourself, just go, yeah, all right, but no one else make a noise.
[01:15:32.520 --> 01:15:33.640] No one else make any noise.
[01:15:29.440 --> 01:15:35.000] No one else say anything.
[01:15:35.080 --> 01:15:37.400] So I'm going to say, this is what happened at the festival.
[01:15:37.640 --> 01:15:39.080] So wait like a second.
[01:15:39.080 --> 01:15:41.160] And this is exactly, yes, the guy in the green shirt right there.
[01:15:41.160 --> 01:15:45.720] So yeah, well, everybody knows Pons and Fleischman don't believe in peer review.
[01:15:45.720 --> 01:15:46.520] Yeah!
[01:15:47.480 --> 01:15:48.680] That's exactly what happened.
[01:15:52.840 --> 01:15:54.680] It was awesome.
[01:15:54.680 --> 01:15:55.960] Oh my God.
[01:15:56.280 --> 01:15:57.800] But you and that guy.
[01:15:57.800 --> 01:15:58.280] Oh, yeah.
[01:15:58.280 --> 01:15:58.840] You were tight.
[01:15:59.160 --> 01:16:00.040] Star Wars shirt.
[01:16:00.040 --> 01:16:01.320] It was fantastic.
[01:16:01.320 --> 01:16:05.880] Karen, are you going to tell us about the last 20 years of medical scams?
[01:16:06.840 --> 01:16:08.120] Yeah, so it's interesting.
[01:16:08.120 --> 01:16:21.400] When we were first talking about the stories that we were going to tell here, we're like, how do we even approach a question like, what has happened over the last 20 years when it comes to medical scams?
[01:16:21.400 --> 01:16:29.240] And the first thing that came to mind was a very recent episode that we did where we were talking about miracle mineral solution.
[01:16:29.240 --> 01:16:31.960] And I was like, oh, we talk about that a lot on the show.
[01:16:31.960 --> 01:16:35.080] MMS, which, of course, is this, it's bleach.
[01:16:35.080 --> 01:16:35.800] I mean, let's be honest.
[01:16:35.800 --> 01:16:43.000] It's bleach, like industrial bleach that has been marketed as a cure for anything from HIV to cancer to autism.
[01:16:43.320 --> 01:16:44.600] And it's really dangerous.
[01:16:44.600 --> 01:16:49.720] And I think that's the reason we see it come up time and time again, is because there are documented deaths from this.
[01:16:50.040 --> 01:16:55.160] It's a very, very dangerous form of alternative medicine.
[01:16:55.160 --> 01:17:02.040] And what I originally was going to do was go through the archive, and I did this for MMS.
[01:17:02.040 --> 01:17:09.160] You know, the first mention, episode 285, that was on December 29th, 2010, very first mention.
[01:17:09.480 --> 01:17:15.440] And then, you know, again in 2014, 2016, 2019, the FDA warned against it.
[01:17:15.440 --> 01:17:20.000] 2021, this peddler in Florida who like ran a church, he was first indicted.
[01:17:20.000 --> 01:17:22.160] 2023, convicted.
[01:17:22.160 --> 01:17:25.040] 2024, another person in New Zealand went to prison.
[01:17:25.040 --> 01:17:31.680] So kind of spanning this entire history, we saw actual change when it comes to MMS.
[01:17:31.680 --> 01:17:36.640] So I was like, okay, I'm going to do this for like all the medical pseudoscience.
[01:17:36.640 --> 01:17:38.080] And then I was like, no, I have a full-time job.
[01:17:38.080 --> 01:17:39.200] I'm not doing that.
[01:17:40.160 --> 01:17:41.280] So I gave up on that.
[01:17:41.280 --> 01:17:43.920] And then I asked ChatGPT for help for some other things.
[01:17:44.080 --> 01:17:49.280] So I wanted to go back and say, okay, what are some of the earliest forms of medical pseudoscience?
[01:17:49.280 --> 01:18:01.920] And way back, like looking back to Hippocrates in the fifth century BCE, we're looking at things like humoral theory and humoral theory, of course, then kind of bloodletting followed from that.
[01:18:01.920 --> 01:18:11.520] And bloodletting persisted all the way up until the 19th century, like long after we knew that this was not a valid form of medical intervention.
[01:18:11.520 --> 01:18:18.000] So oftentimes this is kind of like touted as one of the original medical scams, like the earliest pseudoscience.
[01:18:18.320 --> 01:18:27.520] But snake oil, patent medicines, you know, and even though we don't often, we use the term snake oil all the time on the show, we don't often hear about patent medicine, but we do.
[01:18:27.520 --> 01:18:29.040] It's just been repackaged.
[01:18:29.200 --> 01:18:31.360] And we see that theme time and time again.
[01:18:31.600 --> 01:18:33.680] Was snake oil like literally snake oil?
[01:18:34.240 --> 01:18:41.440] I think they were selling it as if, it was snake oil, but they were selling it as if snake oil had medicinal properties.
[01:18:41.440 --> 01:18:44.240] Yeah, so snake oil was a snake oil.
[01:18:44.560 --> 01:18:47.600] Made from snakes or something they excreted, or like it was what?
[01:18:47.600 --> 01:18:49.680] Yeah, it was some kind of snake extract.
[01:18:49.680 --> 01:18:50.120] Extract.
[01:18:50.080 --> 01:18:51.240] Not venom.
[01:18:51.760 --> 01:19:00.760] But obviously, that was just one of hundreds of treatments, but somehow that became the iconic snake, like on the side of the hole.
[01:19:00.000 --> 01:19:03.640] Oil of snake.
[01:19:03.960 --> 01:19:04.360] Yeah.
[01:19:00.000 --> 01:19:07.160] Phrenology, of course, radium cures.
[01:19:07.320 --> 01:19:13.400] So you start to see these changes that are kind of moving with the zeitgeist, that are moving with new technologies.
[01:19:13.720 --> 01:19:24.200] Different alternative cancer treatments have been popular throughout different eras, like Gerson therapy, you know, these like magic diets that are supposed to cure cancer.
[01:19:24.200 --> 01:19:27.560] And of course, they're the big ones that we come back to time and time again.
[01:19:27.560 --> 01:19:41.000] I wanted to figure out how many references to homeopathy, how many references to chiropractic have been on the show, but I think it like broke all the search engines, so I can't tell you that number.
[01:19:41.000 --> 01:19:41.640] It was a lot.
[01:19:41.640 --> 01:19:42.360] It was too many.
[01:19:42.360 --> 01:19:43.240] It was a lot.
[01:19:43.720 --> 01:19:46.120] Lots of detoxes, diet cleanses.
[01:19:46.440 --> 01:20:09.400] I've been really fascinated by the types of things that are touted at MediSpas, the types of different new treatments that are evolving with the actual evolution of medicine, where sort of key words or interesting new developments are then stolen by charlatans and pushed in ways that are not evidence-based.
[01:20:09.400 --> 01:20:16.760] A really big one that I think, you know, it's hard looking back because I've been on the show for about half of the time that it's been on air.
[01:20:16.760 --> 01:20:32.600] So the whole first half of the show I wasn't present for, but you know, one of these very persistent forms of medical pseudoscience, the anti-vax movement, which we all can kind of like go back, maybe not to the earliest of the, I think as soon as there was a vaccine, there was anti-vax, right?
[01:20:32.600 --> 01:20:42.120] But we know that there was like a big change, right, with Wakefield and with all of the long-debunked claims that Wakefield made about autism.
[01:20:42.120 --> 01:20:57.680] But of course, then COVID came and we saw this massive resurgence yet again, not just with anti-vaccine, but with all of the alternative treatments that were touted, like ivermectin, you know, and like you could just shine a light inside your body.
[01:20:57.680 --> 01:20:58.880] I think that'll work.
[01:21:00.160 --> 01:21:03.040] Chiropractic, like I mentioned, and subluxation theory.
[01:21:03.440 --> 01:21:14.000] Essential oils, we don't even really talk about that on the show that much, but this is like one of the bigger ones: alkaline diets and water, colon cleansing, a lot of the different, and there's categories.
[01:21:14.000 --> 01:21:25.920] It's funny because this is such a beautiful example of one of the things we often talk about on the show, which is constructs and taxonomy and categorizing things and putting things into boxes.
[01:21:25.920 --> 01:21:29.280] Like, how do I even organize medical myths?
[01:21:29.280 --> 01:21:36.320] Because there's like the homunculus-type myths, and then there's the cleansing-type myths, and some of them cross into different categories.
[01:21:36.320 --> 01:21:43.200] And it's a fascinating study when you look at all of the different pseudoscientific treatments that are touted.
[01:21:43.200 --> 01:21:47.200] Even things like psychic surgery, or ear candling, or cryotherapy.
[01:21:47.200 --> 01:21:49.120] That one's gotten popular again lately.
[01:21:49.120 --> 01:21:51.760] Cupping, we talk about cupping every time the Olympics come up.
[01:21:51.760 --> 01:21:54.000] Vaginal steaming, vaginal eggs.
[01:21:54.320 --> 01:21:54.720] What?
[01:21:55.040 --> 01:21:55.360] What?
[01:21:55.680 --> 01:21:56.240] I've never heard of it.
[01:21:56.320 --> 01:21:56.960] You don't remember that?
[01:21:57.200 --> 01:21:57.680] Yes, you have.
[01:21:57.680 --> 01:22:00.000] We've covered it like 10 times on the show.
[01:22:00.480 --> 01:22:01.200] What are they steaming?
[01:22:04.080 --> 01:22:04.800] Why?
[01:22:05.120 --> 01:22:06.880] Is that a serious question?
[01:22:07.200 --> 01:22:08.720] What are they saying it does?
[01:22:08.720 --> 01:22:10.160] The vagina is what they're steaming.
[01:22:10.320 --> 01:22:11.120] But what is it supposed to be?
[01:22:11.280 --> 01:22:19.920] Oh, so I think vaginal steaming is a really beautiful example of the way that the wellness industry really preys on women and how men are completely unaware of it.
[01:22:21.840 --> 01:22:22.880] It's like.
[01:22:27.360 --> 01:22:29.800] It really is pernicious because you're right, Jay.
[01:22:29.600 --> 01:22:36.920] I think that was such a beautiful example because the way that men are preyed on, and that's not to say that there aren't pressures to maintain certain body images.
[01:22:38.120 --> 01:22:41.480] You have your dick pills and that will never go away, I don't think.
[01:22:41.720 --> 01:22:46.360] But the thing is, those are FDA approved and often covered by Medicare.
[01:22:46.840 --> 01:22:51.480] And the purpose of that is about vigor and virility.
[01:22:51.800 --> 01:22:54.280] Whereas on women, it's shame, shame, shame.
[01:22:55.000 --> 01:23:03.720] You're dirty, you smell, you're dangerous, you're sick, you're unbalanced, your pores are too clogged, you're, yeah, exactly.
[01:23:03.720 --> 01:23:10.200] You're not delivering the promise of a clean, virginal, beautiful child.
[01:23:10.440 --> 01:23:11.880] And so it's horrible.
[01:23:11.880 --> 01:23:18.440] And when you actually do start to look into the pseudoscience in MediSpas, you see those trends over and over and over.
[01:23:19.080 --> 01:23:23.480] There's some that, like when I was looking into this, I hadn't heard of, like laser lipo.
[01:23:23.480 --> 01:23:24.920] Have we ever talked about that on the show?
[01:23:24.920 --> 01:23:28.360] Just like, you're skinny now, you know?
[01:23:28.360 --> 01:23:32.120] Or like psychic surgery.
[01:23:32.120 --> 01:23:33.960] These are all the same concept, right?
[01:23:33.960 --> 01:23:35.560] Like, are you calm?
[01:23:35.560 --> 01:23:38.120] Do you feel cured of your mental illness?
[01:23:38.120 --> 01:23:39.880] Magnetic therapy, things like that.
[01:23:39.880 --> 01:23:43.880] And so, but we also talk about things, you know, what is the harm, right?
[01:23:43.880 --> 01:23:49.240] We often talk about the harm, the harm of medical treatments, of pseudoscientific medical treatments.
[01:23:49.240 --> 01:23:52.120] And there's so many different ways to even categorize that.
[01:23:52.120 --> 01:24:00.840] Like, I was struggling when I was working on prompts, even for chat GPT, like the most pernicious, the most dangerous, the most whatever.
[01:24:00.840 --> 01:24:03.480] It's like, but how do you even define that, right?
[01:24:03.480 --> 01:24:09.640] Is it the number of deaths that are directly attributable to this pseudoscience?
[01:24:09.640 --> 01:24:11.640] Is it the number of deaths that happen?
[01:24:11.640 --> 01:24:16.480] Because in taking the pseudoscience, we delayed taking a legitimate treatment.
[01:24:16.480 --> 01:24:22.160] Is it the number of externalized problems, the amount of money that desperate people were spending on these things?
[01:24:22.160 --> 01:24:36.000] Or as we often talk about, the kind of perpetuating of legitimacy of certain industries, even those that we think of as maybe not necessarily being harmful but being more on the neutral side, they still perpetuate.
[01:24:36.000 --> 01:24:44.560] And I think a perfect example, once again, is the beauty industry and the amount of blame and shame that women carry because of this multi-billion dollar industry.
[01:24:44.880 --> 01:24:48.960] But I was thinking, okay, what are some of the ones that are like documented killed people?
[01:24:48.960 --> 01:24:50.560] And I compiled a little list.
[01:24:50.560 --> 01:24:52.880] Chelation therapy for autism.
[01:24:53.200 --> 01:24:58.400] We know that this causes like kidney damage, cardiac arrest, and death, and there have been documented deaths.
[01:24:58.400 --> 01:25:01.680] Gerson therapy, which is this alternative cancer treatment.
[01:25:01.680 --> 01:25:04.800] It's like intense diets and coffee enemas and stuff like that.
[01:25:04.800 --> 01:25:06.480] And people just die, right?
[01:25:06.480 --> 01:25:07.120] They have cancer.
[01:25:07.120 --> 01:25:08.400] They treat it with a coffee enema.
[01:25:09.120 --> 01:25:10.400] You're not going to do well.
[01:25:10.400 --> 01:25:18.480] Colonic hydrotherapy, colon cleansing has led to perforated intestines, death due to those kinds of complications like sepsis.
[01:25:18.480 --> 01:25:21.200] Drinking raw milk, not a good idea.
[01:25:21.200 --> 01:25:22.800] We've talked about that quite a bit.
[01:25:22.800 --> 01:25:24.320] Black salve.
[01:25:24.320 --> 01:25:24.800] Oh, yeah, that's it.
[01:25:25.040 --> 01:25:33.600] Yeah, it's like an old, yeah, it's a corrosive paste that's claimed to draw out cancer from the skin, and it causes tissue necrosis.
[01:25:34.400 --> 01:25:43.840] It's a necrotic paste that causes severe skin damage, disfigurement, infections, and people have died because, of course, they're not treating their cancer.
[01:25:43.840 --> 01:25:45.760] You say disfigurement, but I don't want to gloss over that.
[01:25:46.240 --> 01:25:47.200] You have to look at pictures.
[01:25:47.200 --> 01:25:52.960] If you look at black salve, look at pictures on the internet, and like people's entire, like half their face is eaten away.
[01:25:52.960 --> 01:25:55.360] Like really horrible disfigure.
[01:25:55.520 --> 01:25:56.800] And so that's another prompt.
[01:25:56.800 --> 01:25:58.960] Like, what are the grossest pseudoscientists?
[01:25:59.040 --> 01:25:59.320] Yeah.
[01:25:59.120 --> 01:26:04.200] So vitamin mega dosing, we've seen example after example when we do what's the harm.
[01:26:04.520 --> 01:26:07.560] Homeopathy, of course, in place of conventional medicine.
[01:26:07.560 --> 01:26:08.280] Ozone therapy.
[01:26:08.280 --> 01:26:12.360] And I mean, we could sit here and just talk this whole time just about homeopathy.
[01:26:12.360 --> 01:26:19.080] And I feel like it's great that this is, you're the SGU audience, so I don't have to go into what homeopathy actually is.
[01:26:19.080 --> 01:26:25.160] But I feel like it's groundhog day with people in my life because they're like, oh, it's just natural.
[01:26:25.160 --> 01:26:26.520] It's just, no, but it's an alternative.
[01:26:26.520 --> 01:26:34.920] It's like, do you really read the Wikipedia page, come back to me, and then we'll talk about whether you are embarrassed to have those pills in your medicine cabinet.
[01:26:35.240 --> 01:26:39.560] You know, isn't it strange that there isn't a homeopathy emergency room?
[01:26:39.560 --> 01:26:40.200] Yeah, exactly.
[01:26:40.200 --> 01:26:42.040] Didn't somebody like it?
[01:26:42.120 --> 01:26:42.600] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[01:26:42.680 --> 01:26:44.520] The Michelin Webb effect thing did it.
[01:26:44.520 --> 01:26:44.760] Yeah, yeah.
[01:26:45.800 --> 01:26:46.200] It's good.
[01:26:46.680 --> 01:26:47.720] I didn't just make that up.
[01:26:47.720 --> 01:26:49.480] No, no ideas.
[01:26:49.720 --> 01:26:49.960] All right.
[01:26:50.440 --> 01:27:03.160] Ozone therapy, vampire facials, we recently talked about, and there's a massive outbreak of HIV at this Medi-Spa in New Mexico where they were doing these platelet-rich plasma vampire facials.
[01:27:03.480 --> 01:27:13.640] So what I did decide to do is say, okay, 2005, when the podcast started, 2024, where we are now, what were like the top trends each year?
[01:27:13.640 --> 01:27:15.560] Like what had the public's attention?
[01:27:15.560 --> 01:27:17.800] And I went both with the wellness fads.
[01:27:17.800 --> 01:27:24.040] The wellness fads are interesting because some of them are actually legitimate, or I don't want to say legitimate.
[01:27:24.760 --> 01:27:28.360] Some of them aren't overtly pseudoscience, but some of them are like, what even?
[01:27:28.600 --> 01:27:33.000] And then I also looked at just the most pseudoscientific trends during those years.
[01:27:33.000 --> 01:27:34.520] So I'm going to run through them really quickly.
[01:27:34.520 --> 01:27:35.560] It's fascinating.
[01:27:35.560 --> 01:27:39.560] So 2005, juice cleanses, colon cleanses.
[01:27:39.560 --> 01:27:41.640] 2006, Pilates was hot.
[01:27:41.640 --> 01:27:43.640] Apparently, it was a hot search term, which is great, whatever.
[01:27:43.640 --> 01:27:44.760] Pilates is cool.
[01:27:45.040 --> 01:27:46.800] Magnetic therapy.
[01:27:46.800 --> 01:27:50.240] 2007, superfoods, acai bowls.
[01:27:51.040 --> 01:27:52.160] Ear candling.
[01:27:52.160 --> 01:27:52.480] Really?
[01:27:52.480 --> 01:27:55.920] In 2007, people were like all about the ear candling.
[01:27:56.080 --> 01:27:59.280] 2008, we got yoga, and then we've got homeopathy.
[01:27:59.280 --> 01:28:03.360] 2009, CrossFit and ionized water was all the rage in 2009.
[01:28:03.600 --> 01:28:04.080] These are from what?
[01:28:04.080 --> 01:28:04.480] These are these?
[01:28:04.720 --> 01:28:07.120] These are top-trending searches?
[01:28:07.120 --> 01:28:07.840] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[01:28:07.840 --> 01:28:09.360] Across the internet.
[01:28:09.360 --> 01:28:18.880] The first one is whatever the wellness fad was, and then the second one was like the top-trending pseudoscience or medical scam.
[01:28:18.880 --> 01:28:22.320] Health pseudoscience is one of the number one pieces of information on the internet.
[01:28:22.480 --> 01:28:22.960] It's huge.
[01:28:22.960 --> 01:28:23.600] It's massive.
[01:28:23.600 --> 01:28:26.080] And it's across all social media platforms.
[01:28:26.640 --> 01:28:30.560] Yeah, it's a billion, multi-billion dollar industry.
[01:28:30.800 --> 01:28:35.520] 2009, we got CrossFit was, you know, great in the wellness industry, and then ionized water.
[01:28:35.520 --> 01:28:40.400] 2010, veganism was a big wellness trending topic and anti-vaccine movements.
[01:28:40.400 --> 01:28:42.240] This is interesting, so come back around.
[01:28:42.240 --> 01:28:49.360] 2011, gluten-free diets and the human chorionic gonadotropin drops and injections that were marketed for weight loss.
[01:28:49.360 --> 01:28:50.800] I didn't even, okay.
[01:28:50.800 --> 01:28:55.920] In 2012, meditation and raspberry ketones were all the rage.
[01:28:56.240 --> 01:28:58.080] Miracle fat burner, apparently.
[01:28:58.080 --> 01:29:03.200] 2013, green smoothies and miracle mineral supplement.
[01:29:03.200 --> 01:29:04.960] This is like the top trending.
[01:29:05.200 --> 01:29:06.400] Yeah, bleach.
[01:29:06.400 --> 01:29:07.440] Bleach.
[01:29:07.440 --> 01:29:11.360] 2014, paleo diet and green coffee bean extract.
[01:29:11.360 --> 01:29:13.280] A lot of weight loss miracles on here.
[01:29:13.280 --> 01:29:14.640] Again, that blame and the shame.
[01:29:14.640 --> 01:29:15.040] Yeah.
[01:29:15.280 --> 01:29:17.520] 2015, wearable fitness trackers.
[01:29:17.520 --> 01:29:19.920] That was a big wellness industry thing.
[01:29:19.920 --> 01:29:23.680] And 2015, for pseudoscience, waste trainers.
[01:29:24.000 --> 01:29:25.280] What year is it?
[01:29:25.280 --> 01:29:26.800] You're talking about the 40s before.
[01:29:26.800 --> 01:29:27.680] Which one?
[01:29:28.560 --> 01:29:32.600] Okay, 2016, bulletproof coffee and alkaline diets.
[01:29:29.840 --> 01:29:36.520] 2017, cryotherapy and essential oil cures.
[01:29:36.840 --> 01:29:41.160] 2018, CBD oil and stem cell therapy scams.
[01:29:41.160 --> 01:29:43.960] These were, there were a lot of news articles about those.
[01:29:43.960 --> 01:29:48.120] 2019, intermittent fasting and the blood type diet.
[01:29:48.440 --> 01:29:50.600] People still buy into that.
[01:29:50.600 --> 01:29:52.200] It's astrology.
[01:29:52.760 --> 01:29:55.720] 2020, home workouts and what do you think?
[01:29:55.720 --> 01:29:57.720] COVID-19 miracle cures, of course.
[01:29:57.960 --> 01:29:59.080] Did you say home workouts?
[01:29:59.080 --> 01:29:59.880] Home workouts, yeah.
[01:29:59.880 --> 01:30:01.560] That was like the biggest wellness trend of the...
[01:30:01.640 --> 01:30:02.680] It was lockdown.
[01:30:03.000 --> 01:30:04.200] What's wrong with home workouts?
[01:30:04.200 --> 01:30:04.440] Nothing.
[01:30:04.440 --> 01:30:05.640] I was like, this is the biggest wellness trend.
[01:30:06.520 --> 01:30:06.680] Yeah.
[01:30:07.000 --> 01:30:10.600] So yeah, so with the wellness trends, it's interesting how many of them are pseudoscience.
[01:30:10.680 --> 01:30:13.480] There have been like three so far that were okay, I think.
[01:30:13.800 --> 01:30:14.040] Yeah.
[01:30:14.040 --> 01:30:18.200] Wearable fitness trackers, home workouts, some yoga, some Pilates.
[01:30:18.520 --> 01:30:19.560] A bit of meditation, maybe.
[01:30:20.760 --> 01:30:22.120] Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
[01:30:22.920 --> 01:30:28.360] 2021, immune boosting supplements and anti-5G radiation devices.
[01:30:29.960 --> 01:30:30.600] Yep.
[01:30:30.920 --> 01:30:31.560] 2022.
[01:30:34.200 --> 01:30:35.320] And the chip and the vaccine.
[01:30:35.320 --> 01:30:35.640] I don't know.
[01:30:36.200 --> 01:30:37.160] It's all getting mixed up now.
[01:30:39.320 --> 01:30:43.400] 2022, biggest wellness trend, mental health apps make sense, right?
[01:30:43.400 --> 01:30:45.720] Post-COVID or still COVID.
[01:30:45.720 --> 01:30:47.800] 2022, NAD supplements.
[01:30:47.800 --> 01:30:49.000] I didn't even, okay.
[01:30:49.000 --> 01:30:55.880] 2023, hormone balancing diets and ozone therapy, also deadly.
[01:30:56.440 --> 01:31:07.160] And that brings us to 2024, which is not yet over, but so far, tech-driven wellness, like AI personalized wellness plans, and frequency healing devices.
[01:31:07.640 --> 01:31:08.120] What?
[01:31:08.760 --> 01:31:11.400] So, you know, it's funny, we think about what are the trends.
[01:31:11.400 --> 01:31:13.560] We can see the trends coming and going with the zeitgeist.
[01:31:13.560 --> 01:31:18.720] We can see the trends coming and going with, you know, the pressures that we're under, but this is cyclical.
[01:31:15.000 --> 01:31:22.000] Nothing is new, it's all repacked with a brand new name.
[01:31:22.480 --> 01:31:27.280] And over hundreds of years, like you think this is all a modern phenomenon?
[01:31:27.280 --> 01:31:35.680] You know, one of my favorite examples is a book written 200 years ago about magnet scams, like magnetic devices that are all scams.
[01:31:35.680 --> 01:31:36.560] Saying that they're scams.
[01:31:36.560 --> 01:31:38.720] 200 years ago, saying this is BS.
[01:31:38.960 --> 01:31:55.680] But yeah, but this was like all of the herbal supplements that are popular today, most of them were innovated in the 1900s or earlier, and they were sold as natural, the Native Americans do this, so it must be natural and healthy.
[01:31:55.680 --> 01:31:58.560] Like the same bullshit marketing that we have now.
[01:31:58.880 --> 01:32:18.640] And very often, the interesting thing is, which actually grinds my gears more than almost anything, is that sort of cultural appropriation where there's a claim that something is wisdom coming from, you know, millennia of a people who practice this as part of their cultural rituals.
[01:32:18.640 --> 01:32:22.000] But very often, it's just new and repacked.
[01:32:22.320 --> 01:32:24.160] It's a, oh, white people will buy this.
[01:32:24.160 --> 01:32:26.000] This is the ancient Chinese secret market.
[01:32:26.240 --> 01:32:40.800] Yeah, it's infuriating because it ends up not only harming the person that is being marketed or the group of people that it's being marketed to, it also is harmful for the people who they're claiming are the original people who used it.
[01:32:40.800 --> 01:32:44.880] The fact that every year is like a different trend, too, shows that it's just fashion.
[01:32:45.520 --> 01:32:46.320] It's cyclical fashion.
[01:32:46.480 --> 01:32:51.200] Because if there was a hint of truth, you would have a consistent, it would remain the top search.
[01:32:51.200 --> 01:32:51.440] Yeah.
[01:32:51.440 --> 01:32:51.760] You know?
[01:32:52.000 --> 01:32:53.120] Chemotherapy, right?
[01:32:53.120 --> 01:32:53.760] Like it would be.
[01:32:53.840 --> 01:32:54.400] Or like Viagra.
[01:32:54.640 --> 01:32:55.120] Antibiotics.
[01:32:55.200 --> 01:32:58.240] Like Viagra works, you know, and that's going to constantly be in that.
[01:32:58.240 --> 01:33:01.400] Because it's an actual boner thing that does what it's supposed to do.
[01:33:01.400 --> 01:33:02.200] Like the only one.
[01:33:02.760 --> 01:33:03.400] So I'm told.
[01:32:59.920 --> 01:33:03.480] Yeah.
[01:33:03.720 --> 01:33:11.640] So everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our sponsors this week, Planet Wild.
[01:33:11.640 --> 01:33:15.640] Guys, we've talked on the show about how our oceans are polluted with plastics.
[01:33:15.640 --> 01:33:19.880] And I've been watching videos from a Berlin-based organization called Planet Wild.
[01:33:19.880 --> 01:33:23.880] They focus on ecosystem restoration and conservation efforts.
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[01:34:31.240 --> 01:34:33.000] Make sure you use the number nine.
[01:34:33.320 --> 01:34:35.560] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.
[01:34:35.880 --> 01:34:36.600] All right.
[01:34:36.920 --> 01:34:42.120] Evan, tell us about space aliens and UFOs.
[01:34:42.120 --> 01:34:44.400] That's the reason we're all here, isn't it?
[01:34:45.040 --> 01:34:45.840] UFOs.
[01:34:46.320 --> 01:34:48.160] You don't mind as I talk about this.
[01:34:44.120 --> 01:34:49.680] I'm going to use the term UFO, okay?
[01:34:49.760 --> 01:34:52.080] I know it's UAPs, okay?
[01:34:52.080 --> 01:34:55.200] But I'm just going to keep it simple for this sake.
[01:34:55.200 --> 01:34:56.320] Okay, cut me that slack.
[01:34:56.480 --> 01:34:58.000] Low energy nuclear reactions.
[01:34:58.000 --> 01:34:58.720] Come on.
[01:34:59.680 --> 01:35:01.600] Freaking confusion.
[01:35:01.920 --> 01:35:07.360] A 20-year observation on UFOs by the Skeptics Guide.
[01:35:07.360 --> 01:35:07.760] Yeah.
[01:35:07.760 --> 01:35:09.280] So, 2005, right?
[01:35:09.280 --> 01:35:11.680] That's when it all started for us, right?
[01:35:12.240 --> 01:35:13.440] Not exactly.
[01:35:13.440 --> 01:35:18.080] You know, we've been skeptical activists since 1996, of course.
[01:35:18.720 --> 01:35:21.120] And think about 1996.
[01:35:21.120 --> 01:35:23.680] Carl Sagan was still alive.
[01:35:23.680 --> 01:35:27.120] And the year prior, he'd come out with The Demon Haunted World.
[01:35:27.120 --> 01:35:28.880] That's when it was first published.
[01:35:29.520 --> 01:35:37.120] How much did that book have an impact on everything we did back then as a skeptical organization?
[01:35:37.200 --> 01:35:39.840] It's still having an impact today.
[01:35:39.840 --> 01:35:42.880] Oh my gosh, so inspirational, I can't even go into it.
[01:35:43.200 --> 01:35:50.720] And among the many topics in that book, and he covers a lot of things, but he tells stories about UFOs and extraterrestrials.
[01:35:50.720 --> 01:36:02.160] And he does this not just because it kind of overlaps with his area of expertise, being a planetary scientist or planetary astronomer.
[01:36:02.160 --> 01:36:18.560] He did so because the entire story of the modern UFO phenomenon, it makes for excellent examples about how people can differentiate science from pseudoscience and how people can think more critically and really become good skeptics.
[01:36:18.880 --> 01:36:29.040] And as us, a new, you know, up-and-coming sort of group of enthusiasts, as we were just getting into this, oh my gosh, it was the perfect guide for us at the time.
[01:36:29.040 --> 01:36:35.800] I've found that over the years, because we've covered this a lot, you take on a topic like UFOs, and what is really going on here?
[01:36:35.800 --> 01:36:42.200] Yeah, you can break down the facts and the details of what's being told, what's being reported, right?
[01:36:42.200 --> 01:36:44.280] What did somebody actually see?
[01:36:44.280 --> 01:36:47.080] What was the photographic evidence?
[01:36:48.200 --> 01:36:57.880] But what it really, I think, boils down to is becomes a measure of how the media, in a very broad way, treats the topic of UFOs.
[01:36:57.880 --> 01:37:01.240] And that's kind of what we're all subjected to, everybody.
[01:37:01.640 --> 01:37:16.120] It's been established for a very long time, before 2005, that the body of evidence, okay, scientific evidence, hard evidence, that our planet is being visited by extraterrestrials is zero.
[01:37:16.120 --> 01:37:17.160] Absolutely zero.
[01:37:17.160 --> 01:37:19.240] There is nothing tangible.
[01:37:19.240 --> 01:37:21.800] There is no technology that we've discovered.
[01:37:21.800 --> 01:37:24.040] There's no DNA, right?
[01:37:24.040 --> 01:37:26.840] There is no physical evidence whatsoever.
[01:37:26.840 --> 01:37:51.480] And what you do have instead in this entire phenomenon is an abundance of anecdotes, of stories, of retelling, secondhand, third-hand accounts, arguments from authority of all kinds, accompanied by some other things: blurry photographs, garbled audio recordings, and outright fakes, outright fake movies, both on video and film.
[01:37:51.480 --> 01:37:54.040] That is the body of evidence that they present to you.
[01:37:54.040 --> 01:38:00.200] And for the prior 60 years now, this is dating back now to the 1940s, that's the state of the evidence.
[01:38:00.360 --> 01:38:07.000] And the scientific evidence does not amount to anything, not even a single atom.
[01:38:07.000 --> 01:38:14.400] So, and this is all despite the efforts of great people like Carl Sagan or Philip Klass, if you're familiar with the books that he wrote.
[01:38:14.280 --> 01:38:16.800] I mean, he was really a great UFO debunker.
[01:38:16.960 --> 01:38:25.120] There were organizations, the Committee for Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, not to mention Project Blue Book, the Condon Report.
[01:38:25.120 --> 01:38:33.520] But once the idea of UFOs captured sort of the imaginations of our society in the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, and the media ran with it, that's it.
[01:38:33.520 --> 01:38:37.040] The damage really had been done at that point.
[01:38:37.040 --> 01:38:38.880] Our culture absolutely fell in love.
[01:38:38.880 --> 01:38:43.920] It embraced UFOs, and we fell for it, hook, line, and sinker.
[01:38:43.920 --> 01:38:44.560] Jay?
[01:38:44.560 --> 01:38:45.200] Yo.
[01:38:45.520 --> 01:38:46.320] Yeah, yo, what's up?
[01:38:46.320 --> 01:38:46.880] Where's George?
[01:38:46.960 --> 01:38:47.360] With you?
[01:38:47.360 --> 01:38:48.320] Who benefits?
[01:38:48.320 --> 01:38:48.800] Who?
[01:38:48.800 --> 01:38:49.360] Thank you.
[01:38:49.680 --> 01:38:50.880] Thank you, Jay.
[01:38:53.360 --> 01:38:54.560] What are we talking about, man?
[01:38:54.720 --> 01:38:55.920] Qui bono, baby.
[01:38:56.080 --> 01:38:59.760] I was going to say, George, he was going to make a U2 reference or something, I'm sure.
[01:38:59.760 --> 01:39:04.000] Who benefits from this, from this phenomenon?
[01:39:04.000 --> 01:39:07.120] I think it boils down to, in a sense, the media.
[01:39:07.120 --> 01:39:10.400] And I don't just mean the news media that we have.
[01:39:10.640 --> 01:39:12.160] It's a lot of different things.
[01:39:12.160 --> 01:39:16.640] It's authors of books, it's producers of movies and television shows.
[01:39:16.640 --> 01:39:25.040] It's the art bells of the radio world as well, you know, certainly, which is something I listened to in my youth as well.
[01:39:25.040 --> 01:39:32.160] They seized this opportunity and they tapped into the wells of human gullibility and are absolutely making bank on it.
[01:39:32.160 --> 01:39:34.320] 60 years, that's the state of things.
[01:39:34.320 --> 01:39:37.200] Then we came along, 2005, with our podcast.
[01:39:37.200 --> 01:39:40.320] So we tried to counterpunch all of this.
[01:39:40.320 --> 01:39:47.440] You know, yes, we're the minority voice in all of this, but we really wanted to help people understand what UFOs were all about.
[01:39:47.440 --> 01:39:49.360] We wasted no time getting into it.
[01:39:49.360 --> 01:39:50.480] Episode one.
[01:39:50.800 --> 01:39:52.240] Episode one, UFOs.
[01:39:52.240 --> 01:39:53.040] Here it was.
[01:39:53.040 --> 01:39:57.600] Reverse engineering of extraterrestrial UFO flight patterns.
[01:39:57.600 --> 01:40:01.960] Fast, completely erratic, and unpredictable with gaps in motion.
[01:40:01.960 --> 01:40:09.160] So they were analyzing the apparent patterns of UFO flights, using information to speculate about the physics behind it.
[01:40:09.160 --> 01:40:10.920] How could it really possibly be happening?
[01:40:10.920 --> 01:40:20.040] So, really, right from the get-go, what you have here is that the media does not even ask the question: is this real at all?
[01:40:20.040 --> 01:40:20.840] Not even.
[01:40:20.840 --> 01:40:21.960] It's a supposition.
[01:40:21.960 --> 01:40:39.000] They absolutely take it at face value, it is, and then they can expand in a billion different directions with a billion different storylines based on that, making the assumption, the major stated premise, not even unstated, that UFOs are real.
[01:40:39.320 --> 01:40:43.720] End of story, now we're going to go explore that in all these different directions.
[01:40:43.720 --> 01:40:56.600] So I thought a reasonable take on where we are 20 years from now and how to sort of deal with this was to measure how well the media has adapted to the reporting of UFO stories over the past 20 years.
[01:40:56.600 --> 01:40:58.280] Has it gotten worse?
[01:40:58.280 --> 01:41:01.960] Is anything about it better whatsoever?
[01:41:01.960 --> 01:41:13.320] And knowing what we knew in 2005 and having the 10 years of skeptical activism that we did have prior to that, we already had recognized what this pattern was.
[01:41:13.320 --> 01:41:18.440] But we wanted to see what the shifts basically were and were there going to be any changes.
[01:41:18.440 --> 01:41:21.080] We knew what the trend was, but will it change?
[01:41:21.080 --> 01:41:29.880] Well, technology, in a sense, you know, podcasting coming up, moving from an analog world into a fully digital world, how would this have an impact?
[01:41:29.880 --> 01:41:36.760] I went back and I started to look at all of our episodes in which we talked about UFOs and touched on aliens and so many things.
[01:41:36.760 --> 01:41:38.040] And it was massive.
[01:41:38.040 --> 01:41:41.560] I mean, Kara, kind of, you ran into the same issue when you were.
[01:41:41.640 --> 01:41:42.280] You can cover us all.
[01:41:42.440 --> 01:41:42.760] You can't.
[01:41:43.000 --> 01:41:47.440] I mean, I'd take five hours up here, basically, the entire show, of just talking about just that.
[01:41:47.600 --> 01:41:56.080] Instead, what I did is I went back and I used the media's own devices to help me with my observations, along with a little help from AI.
[01:41:56.080 --> 01:42:06.960] And I was able to hone in on the top UFO-related news items for 2005 and then for 2006 and 2007 and so forth, right up to 2024.
[01:42:06.960 --> 01:42:15.680] I was able to come up with five categories, five general categories in which all of these top UFO-related stories fell into.
[01:42:15.680 --> 01:42:17.120] Here are the brackets.
[01:42:17.120 --> 01:42:25.440] Public sightings, okay, those are the witness accounts and the stories, and they send the reporter out to talk to the person about what they saw.
[01:42:25.440 --> 01:42:38.960] Government-related UFO stories, what are governments around the world doing about it, what kind of panels are they convening, what former people in the government or the military had to say about it.
[01:42:38.960 --> 01:42:56.880] The third category is pop culture, and this is where reporting was centered around the latest television show or the latest movie that came out or some other pop culture reference or other industries of popular culture that have touched on this.
[01:42:57.040 --> 01:43:00.080] Fourth category is UFO proponents.
[01:43:00.080 --> 01:43:09.920] You know, the MUFON organization, among some other celebrities who have also gone along and become pro-UFO enthusiasts and are kind of backing those efforts.
[01:43:09.920 --> 01:43:13.440] And finally, the fifth category, science and skepticism.
[01:43:13.440 --> 01:43:20.240] How many of these news articles took a primarily scientific or skeptical approach to them?
[01:43:20.240 --> 01:43:25.200] And I'm going to break it down for you as percentages, okay, out of 100%.
[01:43:25.200 --> 01:43:28.240] Public sightings was the most common.
[01:43:28.240 --> 01:43:33.640] 40% of the stories over that time, over that 20-year period, had to do with the public sightings.
[01:43:34.440 --> 01:43:39.880] Right on its tail is government-related at 36%.
[01:43:40.200 --> 01:43:42.280] So, right there, that's three-quarters of them.
[01:43:42.280 --> 01:43:46.120] The rest of it breaks down like this: pop culture was 8%.
[01:43:46.120 --> 01:43:53.160] UFO proponents, 12%, and that leaves science and skeptics 4%.
[01:43:53.480 --> 01:43:54.520] 4%.
[01:43:54.520 --> 01:43:55.640] That is about it.
[01:43:55.640 --> 01:44:00.040] Now, how does that have an impact on things and the way we perceive things?
[01:44:00.040 --> 01:44:02.600] Well, unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be too good.
[01:44:02.600 --> 01:44:06.120] I found a couple of different polls that express this.
[01:44:06.120 --> 01:44:17.080] One was a Gallup poll in which they took, say, in 2019, in which they say, they asked people, have these UFO reports been alien?
[01:44:17.160 --> 01:44:19.560] Do you think they are alien spacecraft?
[01:44:19.560 --> 01:44:26.680] Or are they explained by normal human natural phenomenon that can be explained?
[01:44:26.680 --> 01:44:38.680] So the change between 2019 and 2021 was a differential of 10-point swing to the direction that these are aliens and alien spacecraft.
[01:44:38.680 --> 01:44:42.120] So absolutely going in the wrong direction.
[01:44:42.120 --> 01:44:46.280] And I'm sure there are a lot of reasons that we could delve into as to why that is the case.
[01:44:46.280 --> 01:44:49.000] And here's another poll that I came up with that I found.
[01:44:49.000 --> 01:44:52.280] Newsweek and YouGov in 2022 took a poll.
[01:44:53.400 --> 01:44:59.240] Americans who believe UFO sightings offer likely proof of alien life.
[01:44:59.560 --> 01:45:10.360] In 1998, they asked this question, and it was only 20% who believed, absolutely 51% who were like.
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[01:48:15.240 --> 01:48:17.960] No, it's human and it's natural.
[01:48:17.960 --> 01:48:19.800] 29% didn't know.
[01:48:19.800 --> 01:48:25.480] But in 2022, 34% believed that's a 14-point jump.
[01:48:25.480 --> 01:48:29.000] And 32% said, no, it's only natural.
[01:48:29.000 --> 01:48:30.440] And that's a 13% drop.
[01:48:30.440 --> 01:48:32.760] And the rest also just didn't know.
[01:48:33.080 --> 01:48:55.600] So, what I was able to sort of determine is that the media is having an enormous, absolutely continues to have an enormous impact on the UFO culture and an entire phenomenon, and unfortunately, in the direction where more people are moving away from the rational scientific explanations of these things.
[01:48:55.600 --> 01:48:56.960] That's what I came up with.
[01:48:57.280 --> 01:49:01.680] I think a lot of it, in terms of the recent trends, is the whole Pentagon UFO thing.
[01:49:01.680 --> 01:49:02.080] Y
Prompt 6: Key Takeaways
Now please extract the key takeaways from the transcript content I provided.
Extract the most important key takeaways from this part of the conversation. Use a single sentence statement (the key takeaway) rather than milquetoast descriptions like "the hosts discuss...".
Limit the key takeaways to a maximum of 3. The key takeaways should be insightful and knowledge-additive.
IMPORTANT: Return ONLY valid JSON, no explanations or markdown. Ensure:
- All strings are properly quoted and escaped
- No trailing commas
- All braces and brackets are balanced
Format: {"key_takeaways": ["takeaway 1", "takeaway 2"]}
Prompt 7: Segments
Now identify 2-4 distinct topical segments from this part of the conversation.
For each segment, identify:
- Descriptive title (3-6 words)
- START timestamp when this topic begins (HH:MM:SS format)
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Most important Key takeaway from that segment. Key takeaway must be specific and knowledge-additive.
- Brief summary of the discussion
IMPORTANT: The timestamp should mark when the topic/segment STARTS, not a range. Look for topic transitions and conversation shifts.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted, no trailing commas:
{
"segments": [
{
"segment_title": "Topic Discussion",
"timestamp": "01:15:30",
"key_takeaway": "main point from this segment",
"segment_summary": "brief description of what was discussed"
}
]
}
Timestamp format: HH:MM:SS (e.g., 00:05:30, 01:22:45) marking the START of each segment.
Now scan the transcript content I provided for ACTUAL mentions of specific media titles:
Find explicit mentions of:
- Books (with specific titles)
- Movies (with specific titles)
- TV Shows (with specific titles)
- Music/Songs (with specific titles)
DO NOT include:
- Websites, URLs, or web services
- Other podcasts or podcast names
IMPORTANT:
- Only include items explicitly mentioned by name. Do not invent titles.
- Valid categories are: "Book", "Movie", "TV Show", "Music"
- Include the exact phrase where each item was mentioned
- Find the nearest proximate timestamp where it appears in the conversation
- THE TIMESTAMP OF THE MEDIA MENTION IS IMPORTANT - DO NOT INVENT TIMESTAMPS AND DO NOT MISATTRIBUTE TIMESTAMPS
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Timestamps are given as ranges, e.g. 01:13:42.520 --> 01:13:46.720. Use the EARLIER of the 2 timestamps in the range.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted and escaped, no trailing commas:
{
"media_mentions": [
{
"title": "Exact Title as Mentioned",
"category": "Book",
"author_artist": "N/A",
"context": "Brief context of why it was mentioned",
"context_phrase": "The exact sentence or phrase where it was mentioned",
"timestamp": "estimated time like 01:15:30"
}
]
}
If no media is mentioned, return: {"media_mentions": []}
Prompt 9: Context Setup
You are an expert data extractor tasked with analyzing a podcast transcript.
I will provide you with part 3 of 3 from a podcast transcript.
I will then ask you to extract different types of information from this content in subsequent messages. Please confirm you have received and understood the transcript content.
Transcript section:
0 --> 01:47:27.640] Connect with your community through AARP volunteer events.
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[01:48:15.240 --> 01:48:17.960] No, it's human and it's natural.
[01:48:17.960 --> 01:48:19.800] 29% didn't know.
[01:48:19.800 --> 01:48:25.480] But in 2022, 34% believed that's a 14-point jump.
[01:48:25.480 --> 01:48:29.000] And 32% said, no, it's only natural.
[01:48:29.000 --> 01:48:30.440] And that's a 13% drop.
[01:48:30.440 --> 01:48:32.760] And the rest also just didn't know.
[01:48:33.080 --> 01:48:55.600] So, what I was able to sort of determine is that the media is having an enormous, absolutely continues to have an enormous impact on the UFO culture and an entire phenomenon, and unfortunately, in the direction where more people are moving away from the rational scientific explanations of these things.
[01:48:55.600 --> 01:48:56.960] That's what I came up with.
[01:48:57.280 --> 01:49:01.680] I think a lot of it, in terms of the recent trends, is the whole Pentagon UFO thing.
[01:49:01.680 --> 01:49:02.080] Yes.
[01:49:02.080 --> 01:49:02.320] Right?
[01:49:02.560 --> 01:49:05.520] So, and this is what happens: is like, yeah, people get tired of it.
[01:49:05.520 --> 01:49:10.800] It kind of fades into the background, kind of the baseline levels, and then something, a new flap happens, right?
[01:49:10.800 --> 01:49:12.960] A sighting or whatever.
[01:49:12.960 --> 01:49:17.600] And then, you know, it's like it's a same cycle repeats itself.
[01:49:17.600 --> 01:49:19.920] They put up a bunch of crappy evidence.
[01:49:19.920 --> 01:49:27.040] The proponents resurrect all the same old stories and sort of incorporate anything new into the same old narrative.
[01:49:27.040 --> 01:49:30.000] The skeptics thoroughly debunk it.
[01:49:30.000 --> 01:49:32.560] And then it sort of fades into the background again.
[01:49:32.560 --> 01:49:36.560] But it's every time it's a huge nothing burger, as we like to say.
[01:49:36.560 --> 01:49:38.400] Like, there's nothing actually changes.
[01:49:38.400 --> 01:49:41.360] They didn't come up with any actual evidence.
[01:49:41.360 --> 01:49:43.200] And the UFO thing is the same thing.
[01:49:43.200 --> 01:49:48.560] When it happened a few years ago, there was a lot of people saying, oh, we really got it this time, right?
[01:49:48.880 --> 01:49:51.200] The whole, we really found the aliens this time.
[01:49:51.200 --> 01:49:52.560] This changes everything.
[01:49:52.560 --> 01:50:00.160] And the news media, the mainstream media, New York Times, Waypo, right, are saying, like, this is something we need to take seriously now.
[01:50:00.160 --> 01:50:02.160] Like, finally, we could take it seriously.
[01:50:02.160 --> 01:50:12.240] Like, they were so excited that they could talk about UFOs and get all the clickbait without being embarrassed about doing crappy journalism, even though they basically had plausible deniability.
[01:50:12.560 --> 01:50:14.240] And we said, this is nothing.
[01:50:14.240 --> 01:50:16.800] This is going to turn into nothing.
[01:50:16.800 --> 01:50:18.160] And what happened?
[01:50:18.160 --> 01:50:23.760] The Pentagon did their analysis, came out with the report, and they said it's nothing.
[01:50:24.360 --> 01:50:26.240] They said there's no evidence of aliens.
[01:50:26.240 --> 01:50:27.200] That's the bottom line.
[01:50:28.240 --> 01:50:37.400] As soon as any of these types of things start changing their names, as soon as it changes, it realizes that UFOs are silly.
[01:50:37.720 --> 01:50:41.720] You cross over into what your image is here of the big gray.
[01:50:41.720 --> 01:50:42.600] Oh, it's kind of.
[01:50:42.600 --> 01:50:44.760] So we have to change the brand.
[01:50:44.760 --> 01:50:49.000] And whenever there's a brand change, you just know it's more of the same horseshit.
[01:50:49.640 --> 01:50:55.160] Even like with the cold fusion thing, we can't call it cold fusion because everybody knows that that doesn't work.
[01:50:55.160 --> 01:50:56.760] So we're going to rebrand it.
[01:50:56.760 --> 01:50:59.480] And it's just, as soon as there's a rebranding, you just go, no.
[01:50:59.720 --> 01:51:00.520] It's desperation.
[01:51:00.520 --> 01:51:01.480] Desperation, yeah.
[01:51:01.480 --> 01:51:09.240] Like they themselves know how silly it is on some level that we can't call it the thing we've been calling it for 30 years because everyone knows it's BS.
[01:51:09.240 --> 01:51:10.760] It's amazing.
[01:51:11.080 --> 01:51:11.880] All right.
[01:51:14.440 --> 01:51:19.400] It's time for science or fiction.
[01:51:24.200 --> 01:51:29.080] Each week I come up with three science news items or facts two real and one fake.
[01:51:29.080 --> 01:51:34.120] And then I challenge my panel of expert skeptics to tell me which one is the fake.
[01:51:34.120 --> 01:51:37.320] And during live shows, we get to poll the audience too.
[01:51:37.320 --> 01:51:39.480] George will do his one clap thing.
[01:51:39.480 --> 01:51:41.080] Okay, there's a theme this week.
[01:51:41.080 --> 01:51:42.760] Does anybody want to guess the theme?
[01:51:44.440 --> 01:51:45.160] Elections.
[01:51:45.320 --> 01:51:45.800] Elections.
[01:51:46.040 --> 01:51:46.440] Politics.
[01:51:47.080 --> 01:51:48.360] Richard Wise.
[01:51:48.520 --> 01:51:49.160] Number 1,000.
[01:51:49.400 --> 01:51:51.720] The number 1,000 is the theme.
[01:51:51.720 --> 01:51:52.600] Good job, Jay.
[01:51:53.960 --> 01:51:55.480] Number 1,000.
[01:51:55.720 --> 01:51:56.920] Here we go.
[01:51:56.920 --> 01:52:03.640] Item number one: there are roughly 1,000 stars within 45 light years of Earth.
[01:52:03.640 --> 01:52:14.360] Item number two: a recent census of a 430 square meter urban property in Brisbane, Australia found over 1,000 macroscopic species.
[01:52:14.360 --> 01:52:19.360] Basically, in one property, one yard with a house, 1,000 macroscopic species.
[01:52:20.480 --> 01:52:28.080] And item number three, in 2021, the median household income in the world was just over $1,000.
[01:52:28.400 --> 01:52:29.040] Okay.
[01:52:29.360 --> 01:52:29.760] Per year.
[01:52:30.240 --> 01:52:30.560] Per year.
[01:52:30.880 --> 01:52:31.360] Per year.
[01:52:31.360 --> 01:52:32.160] I thought you said here.
[01:52:32.160 --> 01:52:35.360] I was like, no, in the world, per year.
[01:52:35.360 --> 01:52:38.880] Let's start at the Evan end of the table, Evan.
[01:52:38.880 --> 01:52:44.000] Okay, 1,000 stars within 45 light years of Earth.
[01:52:45.120 --> 01:52:49.120] That seems high at first thought.
[01:52:49.680 --> 01:52:55.840] You think of what the closest star besides our own is, what, 4.3 light years away?
[01:52:55.840 --> 01:52:56.640] That's the closest.
[01:52:56.800 --> 01:52:58.160] That's number one.
[01:52:58.160 --> 01:53:00.960] To find number two, you go out a little bit further than that.
[01:53:03.600 --> 01:53:05.520] Number 917.
[01:53:06.720 --> 01:53:09.440] I mean, those guys, there's definitely life there.
[01:53:10.160 --> 01:53:14.400] I'm trying to establish a pattern, if there is a pattern, to be established here.
[01:53:14.400 --> 01:53:16.400] I think it's a Bernard star that's six light years away.
[01:53:16.800 --> 01:53:24.400] So, well, and so that would, if that were, if that played out equally, what, that would be, what, a thousand?
[01:53:24.800 --> 01:53:27.360] To get to a thousand stars, you would need 45.
[01:53:27.520 --> 01:53:29.120] Yeah, actually, that would work out, right?
[01:53:29.120 --> 01:53:30.160] 4.3.
[01:53:30.800 --> 01:53:32.320] 4.3 light years?
[01:53:32.320 --> 01:53:32.480] Yeah.
[01:53:32.720 --> 01:53:34.320] So the math works on that one.
[01:53:34.960 --> 01:53:35.600] I think.
[01:53:36.720 --> 01:53:37.200] Yeah.
[01:53:37.200 --> 01:53:39.760] And so I have a feeling that one's going to be science.
[01:53:40.000 --> 01:53:48.880] The second one: okay, this property in Brisbane, Australia, 1,000 macroscopic species.
[01:53:48.880 --> 01:53:50.240] Macroscopic.
[01:53:50.800 --> 01:53:53.040] That's also a lot.
[01:53:54.160 --> 01:53:56.000] That seems like too many.
[01:53:56.560 --> 01:53:57.040] Right?
[01:53:57.440 --> 01:54:02.280] Because wouldn't some of these things be eating each other and therefore you wouldn't find them?
[01:54:02.520 --> 01:54:05.800] Unless we're talking about like the remains of some we're not talking about the remains.
[01:54:06.280 --> 01:54:08.120] We're talking about a lot live things, Steve.
[01:54:08.120 --> 01:54:09.640] These are things are all alive.
[01:54:09.640 --> 01:54:13.320] These thousand macroscopic species are all alive at the same time.
[01:54:13.640 --> 01:54:14.760] Living things at the same time.
[01:54:15.320 --> 01:54:18.680] In a square that's 430 meters by 430 meters.
[01:54:18.680 --> 01:54:19.320] No.
[01:54:19.800 --> 01:54:23.640] 430 square meters, so it's like 10 by 43, right?
[01:54:25.560 --> 01:54:27.160] How many square feet is it?
[01:54:28.120 --> 01:54:28.760] I don't know.
[01:54:29.000 --> 01:54:30.280] That seems high.
[01:54:30.520 --> 01:54:33.720] The last one, I have no idea, the median household in the world.
[01:54:33.720 --> 01:54:41.320] I mean, my gosh, I mean, there are some places in which the poverty is beyond even your wildest thoughts.
[01:54:41.320 --> 01:54:42.680] It's so low.
[01:54:43.080 --> 01:54:49.400] So to say it's just over 1,000, I have a feeling, sadly, that one's going to turn out to be true.
[01:54:49.400 --> 01:54:53.160] I will say the macroscopic species one is the fiction.
[01:54:53.480 --> 01:54:54.680] Okay, Bob.
[01:54:55.320 --> 01:54:58.600] Something's dropping me wrong about the stars.
[01:54:59.400 --> 01:55:00.440] I know there's what?
[01:55:00.440 --> 01:55:02.680] How many stars are visible at night?
[01:55:03.160 --> 01:55:06.360] 3,000, 4,000, 5,000?
[01:55:06.360 --> 01:55:08.600] But not much more than that.
[01:55:08.600 --> 01:55:14.760] And those stars are very, you know, relatively close to our sun.
[01:55:14.760 --> 01:55:23.320] I mean, almost everything you see out there, if this is the galaxy and we're right here, the stars you're seeing are like a tiny little dot.
[01:55:23.640 --> 01:55:27.720] But that dot, I think, is a lot bigger than 45 light years.
[01:55:27.720 --> 01:55:33.720] So probably wrong with this, but I'm just going to just go with my gut and say that that's not quite right.
[01:55:34.520 --> 01:55:39.000] I'll say number one, the stars visible is fiction.
[01:55:39.000 --> 01:55:39.960] Okay, Jay.
[01:55:39.960 --> 01:55:53.680] All right, so I've learned lots of things from doing this show, and one of them is that life is teeming in Australia and that there's tons of bugs, and these got to be bugs.
[01:55:53.680 --> 01:55:55.760] So that one is science.
[01:55:56.400 --> 01:56:01.920] Unfortunately, a lot of people in the United States, going on to the third one here, a lot of people don't even have any income.
[01:56:01.920 --> 01:56:03.520] So I think that one is science.
[01:56:03.520 --> 01:56:07.920] I'm going to go with Bob and say that number one is about the stars.
[01:56:07.920 --> 01:56:09.600] That one is fiction.
[01:56:09.600 --> 01:56:10.400] Okay, Kara?
[01:56:10.400 --> 01:56:15.680] So this is tough because I'm trying to use, like, I'm trying to use Steve's psychology here.
[01:56:18.000 --> 01:56:20.640] Yeah, usually the rule is an order of magnitude, right?
[01:56:21.040 --> 01:56:22.640] That's a guideline more than a rule.
[01:56:22.640 --> 01:56:23.360] Uh-oh.
[01:56:27.520 --> 01:56:29.040] It's more of a feeling.
[01:56:29.360 --> 01:56:30.800] The plot thickens.
[01:56:30.800 --> 01:56:35.840] Okay, well, because my reasoning was: is it 10 or sorry, is it 100 or is it 10,000, right?
[01:56:35.840 --> 01:56:40.080] And which of those seem more reasonable to go in one direction or the other?
[01:56:40.080 --> 01:56:45.120] I think the median income across the globe is not 10,000 USD.
[01:56:45.120 --> 01:56:48.080] I think that's too high, and I think 100 is too low.
[01:56:48.080 --> 01:56:49.920] So I'm going to cross that one off.
[01:56:49.920 --> 01:56:52.240] I think he's stressing out right now.
[01:56:53.200 --> 01:56:55.120] So then the question is, like.
[01:56:57.040 --> 01:56:59.280] Kara, Kara, Steve just had a tell.
[01:56:59.840 --> 01:57:01.040] Steve just did a rare tell.
[01:57:01.040 --> 01:57:02.000] The audience picked up by it.
[01:57:02.160 --> 01:57:03.120] I didn't see it.
[01:57:03.920 --> 01:57:07.840] I think that, so now it's the stars versus the species.
[01:57:07.840 --> 01:57:13.840] I think the species, I have more confidence in my knowledge about something like this.
[01:57:13.840 --> 01:57:16.080] The stars, I'm not confident in at all.
[01:57:16.080 --> 01:57:18.000] Two people have gone with the stars.
[01:57:18.000 --> 01:57:18.960] That's Bob and Jay.
[01:57:18.960 --> 01:57:23.520] Bob having led the charge makes me nervous.
[01:57:25.440 --> 01:57:31.000] No, because like if it's an astronomy thing and Bob said, you know, he knows the shit.
[01:57:31.000 --> 01:57:31.480] But I don't know if you're going to be able to do it.
[01:57:31.560 --> 01:57:35.240] I think the thing, though, is like that, that's small.
[01:57:35.240 --> 01:57:39.320] When you say an urban property of 430, that's like, what, 1,000 square, like more, you know, something?
[01:57:39.320 --> 01:57:40.200] It's small.
[01:57:40.200 --> 01:57:48.520] And I'm thinking, yes, there is a stereotype that Australia has, you know, and it's true, but Brisbane is a city.
[01:57:48.520 --> 01:57:53.960] That doesn't mean that there aren't, but I don't know, a thousand different bugs there.
[01:57:54.280 --> 01:57:55.240] Yeah, I don't know.
[01:57:55.240 --> 01:57:58.120] That one feels high, although 100 feels low.
[01:57:58.120 --> 01:57:59.080] Might be 500.
[01:57:59.080 --> 01:58:03.480] But I think I'm going to go with Evan on this one, and I'm going to say it's not the insects.
[01:58:03.480 --> 01:58:03.720] Yeah.
[01:58:03.720 --> 01:58:05.560] Or the species.
[01:58:05.560 --> 01:58:06.600] All right, George.
[01:58:06.600 --> 01:58:20.280] I was leaning towards the median income one, but you said just over a thousand, as opposed to around a thousand or a thousand, which makes me feel like it's an actual number of like 11, 15 or something like that.
[01:58:21.160 --> 01:58:25.560] But I do agree with Kara about the thousand bugs.
[01:58:25.640 --> 01:58:29.320] Thousand bugs on a four-football field size.
[01:58:29.560 --> 01:58:31.160] I could see that being.
[01:58:33.720 --> 01:58:35.640] I'm going to go with the median household income.
[01:58:35.640 --> 01:58:35.960] I shouldn't.
[01:58:36.120 --> 01:58:36.760] I shouldn't.
[01:58:37.480 --> 01:58:37.960] No sweet.
[01:58:38.200 --> 01:58:38.920] That is bold.
[01:58:39.880 --> 01:58:40.280] That is bald.
[01:58:40.440 --> 01:58:41.080] Ball spread out.
[01:58:41.160 --> 01:58:42.200] It's strategy.
[01:58:42.200 --> 01:58:43.240] Because it's probably lower.
[01:58:43.240 --> 01:58:44.680] It's probably like really sad and lower.
[01:58:44.760 --> 01:58:45.400] You can poll the audience.
[01:58:45.640 --> 01:58:52.520] We're going to poll the audience and see which rogue you thought was the most persuasive, and also just which one you think is the fiction.
[01:58:52.520 --> 01:58:53.240] Do you want to do the thing?
[01:58:53.400 --> 01:58:58.600] All right, which is, yeah, if you think the first one is the fiction, the light years, here we go.
[01:58:58.920 --> 01:58:59.400] Okay.
[01:58:59.400 --> 01:59:02.520] If you think the second one is the fiction, here we go.
[01:59:03.640 --> 01:59:04.280] Pretty close.
[01:59:04.280 --> 01:59:06.680] And if it's the household income, is the fiction.
[01:59:08.600 --> 01:59:11.880] So I think, yeah, one and two were tied.
[01:59:11.880 --> 01:59:14.440] Three was way behind.
[01:59:14.440 --> 01:59:21.680] So it's George and a minority of the audience think that a very attractive, intelligent minority.
[01:59:22.320 --> 01:59:23.520] Well, they're all minority.
[01:59:24.240 --> 01:59:25.200] All three groups are minorities.
[01:59:25.760 --> 01:59:27.360] Let's start, let's just take them in order.
[01:59:31.440 --> 01:59:32.240] Okay.
[01:59:32.240 --> 01:59:34.320] You can't infer anything from that.
[01:59:34.720 --> 01:59:35.280] Just took a look at it.
[01:59:35.840 --> 01:59:40.640] There are roughly 1,000 stars within 45 light years of Earth.
[01:59:40.960 --> 01:59:45.760] Evan, you think that one is science?
[01:59:45.760 --> 01:59:46.240] Yeah.
[01:59:46.640 --> 01:59:48.320] Bob and Jay think it's fiction.
[01:59:48.960 --> 01:59:51.040] Kara and George think it's science.
[01:59:51.040 --> 01:59:51.680] But what?
[01:59:51.840 --> 01:59:54.800] The 40% of the audience think this one is science.
[01:59:55.440 --> 01:59:59.280] This one is science.
[02:00:01.520 --> 02:00:04.640] And Evan, you nailed it.
[02:00:04.880 --> 02:00:12.800] The math does work out because if you think about it this way, the nearest star is 4.5 light years.
[02:00:12.800 --> 02:00:22.720] So if you say, all right, if you put each star in a box, that's 4.5 light years, and you go out, you know, 45 light years, that's 10.
[02:00:22.720 --> 02:00:25.040] By 10, by 10 is 1,000.
[02:00:25.040 --> 02:00:26.720] There's 1,000 boxes with stars in them.
[02:00:29.760 --> 02:00:31.200] My God, it's full of stars.
[02:00:31.920 --> 02:00:35.040] And that turns out to be roughly the answer.
[02:00:35.040 --> 02:00:37.520] There's about 1,000 stars within 45 light years.
[02:00:37.520 --> 02:00:40.240] Bob got screwed up because of why.
[02:00:40.240 --> 02:00:44.000] He was confusing stars with visible stars.
[02:00:44.960 --> 02:00:50.400] So, most of these stars are not naked eye visible because they're red dwarfs.
[02:00:50.400 --> 02:00:52.000] So, I was kind of right in my thinking.
[02:00:52.000 --> 02:00:52.320] Yeah.
[02:00:52.480 --> 02:00:54.880] I think it was right, but you got there.
[02:00:53.800 --> 02:00:54.680] I felt better.
[02:00:54.680 --> 02:00:56.320] You confused visible stars with stars.
[02:00:56.560 --> 02:00:59.200] My excuse is Bob completely failed me.
[02:00:59.520 --> 02:01:04.120] I said to myself, whatever Bob goes with, I'm doing it, and you're never going to do it.
[02:01:04.120 --> 02:01:05.960] Never is this going to happen again.
[02:00:59.760 --> 02:01:07.080] Never again.
[02:01:07.960 --> 02:01:09.000] The next thousand episodes.
[02:01:09.000 --> 02:01:09.400] You'll show.
[02:01:09.560 --> 02:01:11.800] All right, let's go to number two.
[02:01:11.800 --> 02:01:20.920] A recent census of a 430 square meter urban property in Brisbane, Australia, found over 1,000 macroscopic species.
[02:01:20.920 --> 02:01:24.920] Evan and Kara think this one is the fiction.
[02:01:25.240 --> 02:01:28.440] A lot of the audience thinks this one is the fiction.
[02:01:28.440 --> 02:01:29.480] And this one thinks.
[02:01:43.160 --> 02:01:44.280] His timing.
[02:01:44.280 --> 02:01:45.240] Steve.
[02:01:59.560 --> 02:02:03.560] The watermelon is no longer an anomaly, people.
[02:02:04.520 --> 02:02:07.800] Ian has shit timing.
[02:02:07.800 --> 02:02:08.600] That's it.
[02:02:08.600 --> 02:02:10.600] That's what we learned today.
[02:02:10.600 --> 02:02:12.120] F science or fiction.
[02:02:12.120 --> 02:02:13.800] It's all about Ian.
[02:02:14.360 --> 02:02:16.280] Are we recording?
[02:02:17.880 --> 02:02:19.080] Do I need to repeat anything?
[02:02:20.440 --> 02:02:21.400] All right, hello.
[02:02:22.440 --> 02:02:24.280] We just started recording.
[02:02:25.880 --> 02:02:26.840] And go.
[02:02:29.000 --> 02:02:36.600] A recent census of a 430 square meter urban property in Brisbane, Australia found over 1,000 macroscopic species.
[02:02:36.600 --> 02:02:39.800] Evan and Kara think this one is the fiction.
[02:02:39.800 --> 02:02:44.040] About 40% of the audience think this one is the fiction.
[02:02:44.040 --> 02:02:47.200] And this one is science.
[02:02:47.520 --> 02:02:49.520] No, George!
[02:02:49.840 --> 02:02:51.120] George!
[02:02:58.000 --> 02:02:59.840] Steve, is this George's first win?
[02:03:00.320 --> 02:03:01.360] No, it's not his first win.
[02:03:01.360 --> 02:03:02.720] I think it's his first solo win.
[02:03:02.880 --> 02:03:03.520] Oh, man, George.
[02:03:03.520 --> 02:03:04.160] It could be for solid.
[02:03:04.240 --> 02:03:05.600] It's a thousand shows.
[02:03:06.400 --> 02:03:07.600] It only took a thousand Georgia.
[02:03:07.840 --> 02:03:10.000] George, you landed, you nailed the landing, man.
[02:03:10.640 --> 02:03:11.360] Good job, brother.
[02:03:11.360 --> 02:03:11.920] Oh, my God.
[02:03:12.240 --> 02:03:17.760] So there are a thousand distinct species in this property in Brisbane, Australia.
[02:03:17.760 --> 02:03:19.680] They're all spiders.
[02:03:20.000 --> 02:03:21.040] Every single one of them.
[02:03:21.440 --> 02:03:22.080] No, no, no.
[02:03:23.440 --> 02:03:24.480] They're mostly flies.
[02:03:24.960 --> 02:03:27.520] We're freaking talking about Australia.
[02:03:27.840 --> 02:03:29.440] There are lots of bugs.
[02:03:29.440 --> 02:03:30.560] There's some worms.
[02:03:30.560 --> 02:03:31.920] There's a lot of mammals.
[02:03:31.920 --> 02:03:33.360] There's snails and stuff.
[02:03:33.360 --> 02:03:34.240] But yeah, a thousand.
[02:03:34.240 --> 02:03:35.680] It's just a lot more than you think.
[02:03:35.680 --> 02:03:37.680] And this is the first Australian person in the audience.
[02:03:37.680 --> 02:03:38.800] Did we fool you or no?
[02:03:38.800 --> 02:03:41.760] Because North one, Brizzy, isn't a city.
[02:03:41.760 --> 02:03:42.480] No, N-O!
[02:03:45.360 --> 02:03:47.360] Neui, Brizi's not a city.
[02:03:47.360 --> 02:03:48.320] I love it.
[02:03:48.640 --> 02:03:49.600] Noi.
[02:03:50.240 --> 02:03:51.920] How do you say the word N-O?
[02:03:51.920 --> 02:03:52.640] Noy?
[02:03:53.280 --> 02:03:53.840] I love it!
[02:03:54.160 --> 02:03:55.120] It's so fucking cool.
[02:03:55.520 --> 02:03:56.080] NAR.
[02:03:56.400 --> 02:03:57.360] NOI, NAI.
[02:03:57.440 --> 02:03:57.680] NAR.
[02:03:57.920 --> 02:03:58.400] NOI.
[02:03:58.640 --> 02:03:59.120] NAR.
[02:03:59.840 --> 02:04:01.760] Well, whatever, in Brisbane.
[02:04:05.040 --> 02:04:07.440] According to the paper, it was urban.
[02:04:07.440 --> 02:04:08.080] Okay.
[02:04:08.080 --> 02:04:08.400] Right?
[02:04:08.400 --> 02:04:11.520] So the researchers felt that Brisbane was urban.
[02:04:11.520 --> 02:04:12.880] You can call that whatever you want.
[02:04:12.880 --> 02:04:14.240] There's like six big cities.
[02:04:14.240 --> 02:04:14.880] That's one of them.
[02:04:15.040 --> 02:04:17.200] There's a lot more stuff living in the city than you think.
[02:04:17.520 --> 02:04:17.760] Right?
[02:04:17.760 --> 02:04:19.040] It's not, yeah, right.
[02:04:19.040 --> 02:04:20.240] Especially the small stuff.
[02:04:20.240 --> 02:04:23.040] But it was stuff they could see with the naked eye.
[02:04:23.040 --> 02:04:23.440] Right?
[02:04:23.440 --> 02:04:25.600] Because you can't count bacteria.
[02:04:26.000 --> 02:04:30.000] How many different species of bacteria do you think are in the average person?
[02:04:29.960 --> 02:04:30.520] Oh, my God.
[02:04:31.320 --> 02:04:31.560] How many of you have a thousand?
[02:04:31.640 --> 02:04:32.280] It's about 1,000.
[02:04:32.920 --> 02:04:33.400] That's about 1,000.
[02:04:34.040 --> 02:04:34.440] That was an awful lot.
[02:04:34.520 --> 02:04:35.240] That's the one you didn't use.
[02:04:36.200 --> 02:04:36.520] That's all.
[02:04:36.680 --> 02:04:37.160] All right.
[02:04:37.160 --> 02:04:46.120] This means that in 2021, the median household income in the world was just over $1,000 per year is the fiction.
[02:04:46.120 --> 02:04:47.480] So congratulations, George.
[02:04:48.520 --> 02:04:49.560] I hope it's better.
[02:04:50.200 --> 02:04:52.360] But it's not an order of magnitude lower.
[02:04:52.520 --> 02:04:53.800] You think it's lower?
[02:04:54.840 --> 02:04:55.080] Yeah.
[02:04:55.480 --> 02:04:56.760] Lower or higher?
[02:04:58.440 --> 02:04:59.160] I hope it's higher.
[02:04:59.720 --> 02:05:01.320] It's about $10,000.
[02:05:01.400 --> 02:05:01.960] What is $10,000?
[02:05:03.560 --> 02:05:05.160] It's about $9,000 and something.
[02:05:05.160 --> 02:05:06.440] It's almost $10,000.
[02:05:06.840 --> 02:05:07.080] Wow.
[02:05:07.400 --> 02:05:14.920] And to think that when the people clapped with George, and I'm sitting here going, they're idiots.
[02:05:15.240 --> 02:05:18.600] I figured people would be the best, give the pessimistic things.
[02:05:20.440 --> 02:05:24.920] You could look at there are charts that have every country and their median income.
[02:05:24.920 --> 02:05:32.600] And yeah, you know, it starts in the 40,000, 50,000 range for the Western industrialized, you know, wealthy nations.
[02:05:32.600 --> 02:05:33.880] And then it goes down from there.
[02:05:33.880 --> 02:05:38.680] And there are a lot in the several thousand, like, you know, 10,000 range and then several thousand.
[02:05:38.760 --> 02:05:40.040] Some are below $1,000.
[02:05:40.040 --> 02:05:43.640] In the several hundred dollars, that's your average income.
[02:05:43.640 --> 02:05:45.480] You know, obviously, very, very poor countries.
[02:05:45.480 --> 02:05:53.160] But, of course, this is averaged by population, so it all averages out to around $10,000 per year, which again is nothing when you think about it.
[02:05:53.640 --> 02:05:53.960] It doesn't really matter.
[02:05:55.000 --> 02:05:55.560] It's poverty.
[02:05:56.040 --> 02:05:56.440] It's median.
[02:05:56.840 --> 02:05:57.400] Yeah, yeah, median.
[02:05:57.640 --> 02:05:58.200] It's poverty.
[02:05:58.520 --> 02:05:59.320] Different measures.
[02:05:59.720 --> 02:06:01.880] That's how we paid Bill Nye to do the bit.
[02:06:02.520 --> 02:06:04.200] 10 grand every time.
[02:06:04.200 --> 02:06:05.080] He wants 10 grand.
[02:06:05.080 --> 02:06:06.440] Bill Nye wants 10 grand.
[02:06:06.440 --> 02:06:07.120] All right, bill nine.
[02:06:07.960 --> 02:06:09.480] Hey, Bill Nye, 10 grand.
[02:06:09.480 --> 02:06:10.360] All right, bow tie.
[02:06:10.360 --> 02:06:11.080] What are we going to say?
[02:06:11.120 --> 02:06:11.680] It's fine.
[02:06:12.040 --> 02:06:12.760] Bill Nye, I guess.
[02:06:12.920 --> 02:06:14.600] I don't know why I'm on Jackie Mason all of a sudden.
[02:06:14.600 --> 02:06:14.960] I don't know what I'm saying.
[02:06:14.840 --> 02:06:22.320] But, George, I appreciate it when people have the courage to strike out on their own and not just follow the crowd, and it pays off.
[02:06:22.640 --> 02:06:23.040] Steve just picks up.
[02:06:23.200 --> 02:06:23.920] One in a thousand.
[02:06:24.480 --> 02:06:25.200] It'll pay off.
[02:06:27.120 --> 02:06:28.000] All right.
[02:06:28.000 --> 02:06:32.560] So, guys, that's 1,000 episodes in the day.
[02:06:36.080 --> 02:06:37.680] Oh, my God.
[02:06:43.840 --> 02:06:50.640] All right, Evan, you must have chosen an awesome quote to close out our 11th, like 1,000th episode.
[02:06:50.960 --> 02:06:53.600] From an awesome, awesome human being.
[02:06:53.920 --> 02:07:10.000] At the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes: an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive they may be, and the most ruthless skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new.
[02:07:10.000 --> 02:07:14.800] This is how deep truths are winnowed from deep nonsense.
[02:07:14.800 --> 02:07:17.360] Carl Sagan from The Demon Haunted World.
[02:07:17.360 --> 02:07:17.840] Very nice.
[02:07:18.400 --> 02:07:19.360] Love that quote.
[02:07:28.400 --> 02:07:30.800] That essence right there, that was Carl Sagan, right?
[02:07:30.800 --> 02:07:38.320] That two worlds living together, the excitement over new possibilities married to ruthless skepticism.
[02:07:38.320 --> 02:07:40.000] We try to capture that.
[02:07:40.000 --> 02:07:41.680] It's hard to convey sometimes.
[02:07:42.240 --> 02:07:44.880] That's why I get so annoyed when people say, You're closed-minded.
[02:07:44.880 --> 02:07:46.000] Like, no, we're not.
[02:07:46.000 --> 02:07:47.440] You have no idea what you're talking about.
[02:07:47.440 --> 02:07:48.640] We are open to everything.
[02:07:48.640 --> 02:07:50.320] We just follow the evidence.
[02:07:50.320 --> 02:07:53.920] You're closed to the evidence because you have a true belief system.
[02:07:53.920 --> 02:07:55.600] That's closed-minded.
[02:07:56.080 --> 02:07:57.840] This is the model that we follow, right?
[02:07:57.840 --> 02:08:02.760] It's like we're open to, and I could be convinced of anything if the evidence is proportionate to the claim.
[02:08:02.760 --> 02:08:03.400] That's it.
[02:08:03.800 --> 02:08:04.680] That's all it takes.
[02:07:59.840 --> 02:08:07.080] And the world is amazing enough.
[02:08:07.320 --> 02:08:08.200] It's amazing.
[02:08:08.200 --> 02:08:11.960] Reality is so stupidly amazing.
[02:08:11.960 --> 02:08:13.240] Like, it's enough.
[02:08:13.560 --> 02:08:14.280] Enjoy it.
[02:08:14.280 --> 02:08:15.480] Like, dive into it.
[02:08:15.480 --> 02:08:16.120] Find it.
[02:08:16.120 --> 02:08:16.920] Discover it.
[02:08:16.920 --> 02:08:19.480] And he's so right that this is, it's a process.
[02:08:19.640 --> 02:08:27.080] We're slowly, slowly winnowing something that's more accurate than not from utter nonsense.
[02:08:27.080 --> 02:08:31.320] And if you don't do that process, you are left wallowing in utter nonsense.
[02:08:31.960 --> 02:08:32.920] Let's face it.
[02:08:32.920 --> 02:08:36.920] If you want to live in a fantasy world, why pick some shitty religion?
[02:08:36.920 --> 02:08:39.400] What about Lord of the Rings or Star Trek?
[02:08:39.400 --> 02:08:40.040] Yeah.
[02:08:40.360 --> 02:08:41.400] So much better.
[02:08:41.400 --> 02:08:43.240] There are better fantasy worlds out there.
[02:08:43.800 --> 02:08:44.440] Right?
[02:08:45.880 --> 02:08:51.000] So you're saying you would rather role play tabletop than join a religion?
[02:08:51.000 --> 02:08:54.200] I just want to know what reality is and then pick my fantasy.
[02:08:54.200 --> 02:08:54.520] Yeah.
[02:08:54.520 --> 02:08:56.120] I don't want someone to tell me what my fantasy is.
[02:08:56.360 --> 02:09:03.880] We often do say that, though, like when we're talking, like we're reviewing people who are in a cult or in like a UFO thing or whatever.
[02:09:04.440 --> 02:09:06.360] That's their entertainment, right?
[02:09:06.360 --> 02:09:08.680] And we often say, these people need to play a LARP.
[02:09:08.840 --> 02:09:09.320] Yeah.
[02:09:09.320 --> 02:09:09.800] Right?
[02:09:09.800 --> 02:09:11.160] They need to play tabletop or whatever.
[02:09:11.240 --> 02:09:11.880] Yeah, they need to play Dablet.
[02:09:11.960 --> 02:09:13.080] They met the novellas.
[02:09:13.080 --> 02:09:13.800] LARP.
[02:09:14.120 --> 02:09:22.520] Yeah, seriously, they need a fantasy life for entertainment that they know is fantasy and keep that separate from reality.
[02:09:22.520 --> 02:09:28.680] But they mix the two and to, you know, which creates a lot of nonsense, a lot of mischief.
[02:09:28.680 --> 02:09:29.240] Here, here.
[02:09:29.480 --> 02:09:29.880] Here, here.
[02:09:30.040 --> 02:09:30.440] Yeah, there.
[02:09:30.680 --> 02:09:31.080] All right.
[02:09:31.080 --> 02:09:34.920] So thank you all for joining us for our thousandth episode.
[02:09:34.920 --> 02:09:35.560] Yeah.
[02:09:52.160 --> 02:09:56.640] And until next week, this is your Skeptics Guide to the Universe.
[02:10:04.320 --> 02:10:11.040] Skeptics Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking.
[02:10:11.040 --> 02:10:15.680] For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org.
[02:10:15.680 --> 02:10:19.600] Send your questions to info at the skepticsguide.org.
[02:10:19.600 --> 02:10:30.320] And if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com slash skepticsguide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community.
[02:10:30.320 --> 02:10:33.920] Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.
Prompt 10: Key Takeaways
Now please extract the key takeaways from the transcript content I provided.
Extract the most important key takeaways from this part of the conversation. Use a single sentence statement (the key takeaway) rather than milquetoast descriptions like "the hosts discuss...".
Limit the key takeaways to a maximum of 3. The key takeaways should be insightful and knowledge-additive.
IMPORTANT: Return ONLY valid JSON, no explanations or markdown. Ensure:
- All strings are properly quoted and escaped
- No trailing commas
- All braces and brackets are balanced
Format: {"key_takeaways": ["takeaway 1", "takeaway 2"]}
Prompt 11: Segments
Now identify 2-4 distinct topical segments from this part of the conversation.
For each segment, identify:
- Descriptive title (3-6 words)
- START timestamp when this topic begins (HH:MM:SS format)
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Most important Key takeaway from that segment. Key takeaway must be specific and knowledge-additive.
- Brief summary of the discussion
IMPORTANT: The timestamp should mark when the topic/segment STARTS, not a range. Look for topic transitions and conversation shifts.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted, no trailing commas:
{
"segments": [
{
"segment_title": "Topic Discussion",
"timestamp": "01:15:30",
"key_takeaway": "main point from this segment",
"segment_summary": "brief description of what was discussed"
}
]
}
Timestamp format: HH:MM:SS (e.g., 00:05:30, 01:22:45) marking the START of each segment.
Now scan the transcript content I provided for ACTUAL mentions of specific media titles:
Find explicit mentions of:
- Books (with specific titles)
- Movies (with specific titles)
- TV Shows (with specific titles)
- Music/Songs (with specific titles)
DO NOT include:
- Websites, URLs, or web services
- Other podcasts or podcast names
IMPORTANT:
- Only include items explicitly mentioned by name. Do not invent titles.
- Valid categories are: "Book", "Movie", "TV Show", "Music"
- Include the exact phrase where each item was mentioned
- Find the nearest proximate timestamp where it appears in the conversation
- THE TIMESTAMP OF THE MEDIA MENTION IS IMPORTANT - DO NOT INVENT TIMESTAMPS AND DO NOT MISATTRIBUTE TIMESTAMPS
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Timestamps are given as ranges, e.g. 01:13:42.520 --> 01:13:46.720. Use the EARLIER of the 2 timestamps in the range.
Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted and escaped, no trailing commas:
{
"media_mentions": [
{
"title": "Exact Title as Mentioned",
"category": "Book",
"author_artist": "N/A",
"context": "Brief context of why it was mentioned",
"context_phrase": "The exact sentence or phrase where it was mentioned",
"timestamp": "estimated time like 01:15:30"
}
]
}
If no media is mentioned, return: {"media_mentions": []}
Full Transcript
[00:00:00.320 --> 00:00:02.640] This is where projects come to life.
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[00:00:23.440 --> 00:00:28.240] Discover great brands like Kohler at your local Ferguson showroom.
[00:00:33.360 --> 00:00:39.440] You're listening to the Skeptics Guide to the Universe: your escape to reality.
[00:00:40.400 --> 00:00:44.080] Hello, and welcome to The Skeptics Guide to the Universe.
[00:00:55.040 --> 00:01:00.960] Today is Sunday, August 18th, 2024, and this is your host, Stephen Novella.
[00:01:04.160 --> 00:01:06.000] Joining me this week are Bob Novella.
[00:01:06.000 --> 00:01:07.040] Hey, everybody.
[00:01:08.960 --> 00:01:10.400] Kara Santa Maria.
[00:01:10.400 --> 00:01:11.200] Howdy.
[00:01:12.800 --> 00:01:13.840] Jay Novella.
[00:01:13.840 --> 00:01:14.720] Hey, guys.
[00:01:16.320 --> 00:01:17.600] Evan Bernstein.
[00:01:17.600 --> 00:01:19.360] Hello, Chicago.
[00:01:20.320 --> 00:01:21.520] And George Ronald.
[00:01:21.760 --> 00:01:23.040] Chicago.
[00:01:23.360 --> 00:01:24.720] Chicago.
[00:01:24.720 --> 00:01:26.160] Look so engrossed.
[00:01:26.160 --> 00:01:31.520] We are live from Chicago doing counter-programming to the DNC.
[00:01:33.440 --> 00:01:34.960] We do the best programming.
[00:01:34.960 --> 00:01:37.680] Our podcast is the best podcast ever.
[00:01:39.040 --> 00:01:42.720] It's the most podcast ever recorded ever by anyone ever.
[00:01:43.040 --> 00:01:48.240] This recording is the 1,000th episode of the SGU.
[00:01:56.080 --> 00:02:00.000] I mean, seriously, did you guys imagine we would be here like almost 20 years later?
[00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:02.520] You know, we started doing the show.
[00:02:02.520 --> 00:02:04.680] We're like, hey, let's do a podcast.
[00:02:04.680 --> 00:02:09.000] Now we would be sitting here doing our thousandth episode in front of, you know, a few people.
[00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:13.160] You guys should be here a couple people in the audience who came out to see us.
[00:02:13.160 --> 00:02:13.880] What do you think?
[00:02:14.040 --> 00:02:17.080] I mean, what can you, all of it is overwhelming.
[00:02:17.080 --> 00:02:22.600] You know, like as we've been building up to this, like, you know, a couple years ago, we started talking about, oh, my God, we are like, we are.
[00:02:22.920 --> 00:02:24.040] Yeah, it sort of like dawned on us.
[00:02:24.040 --> 00:02:26.120] Like, yeah, in a couple years, they're going to be up to a thousand.
[00:02:26.360 --> 00:02:27.880] We should do something for that.
[00:02:28.200 --> 00:02:32.760] And we can't, all of us collectively can't help but look back and think about it.
[00:02:32.840 --> 00:02:34.200] Like, this is scheduled for us.
[00:02:34.200 --> 00:02:35.960] We do this on Wednesday nights.
[00:02:35.960 --> 00:02:36.520] We record.
[00:02:36.520 --> 00:02:37.640] We talk to each other.
[00:02:38.200 --> 00:02:40.120] And then it's over, and we go on.
[00:02:40.760 --> 00:02:41.400] For you, it's over.
[00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:42.040] For me, it's beginning.
[00:02:42.200 --> 00:02:43.880] I will post-production.
[00:02:44.200 --> 00:02:47.960] The power of this 1,000th episode realization, right?
[00:02:48.360 --> 00:02:49.880] There is a lot of emotion here.
[00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:52.600] This isn't really about science, right?
[00:02:52.600 --> 00:02:54.760] It isn't like a scientific.
[00:02:55.160 --> 00:02:55.960] It's partly about science.
[00:02:56.120 --> 00:02:57.720] The show is about science.
[00:02:58.440 --> 00:03:05.400] You know, the thing that we set out to do when we started this show was to help people, to educate people, to change their lives.
[00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:12.840] Critical thinking, scientific literacy, and then along the way, we picked up Media Savvy as well.
[00:03:13.720 --> 00:03:15.560] Those are the three legs of the stool.
[00:03:15.880 --> 00:03:17.400] You completely missed what I was trying to say.
[00:03:17.640 --> 00:03:18.600] But go ahead.
[00:03:18.600 --> 00:03:19.560] Just clarifying.
[00:03:19.560 --> 00:03:20.520] Yeah, no, I hear you.
[00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:29.800] But the impact that we had, we have people that have decided to come watch us record this show not because they like, you know, they want to hear you talk more about the brain.
[00:03:29.800 --> 00:03:32.440] It's more about they want to be a part of the SGU community.
[00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:35.000] They want to, you know, it's a human interaction.
[00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:37.960] Jay, it's 100% because they want to hear me talk about the brain.
[00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:41.240] Can we agree to disagree?
[00:03:42.920 --> 00:03:44.040] But seriously, I hear what you're saying.
[00:03:44.040 --> 00:03:44.200] Yeah.
[00:03:44.440 --> 00:03:47.600] Obviously, it's about community as well.
[00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:51.760] And that, because we started out as a skeptical organization, right?
[00:03:51.760 --> 00:03:52.480] As a community.
[00:03:52.480 --> 00:03:58.720] Before we were a podcast, it was all about just networking with other people who were skeptical and wanted to promote that.
[00:03:58.720 --> 00:04:02.080] And we wrote articles and whatever, but that was window dressing.
[00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:04.640] It was the physical interaction.
[00:04:04.880 --> 00:04:11.360] When we did the podcast, it's because we wanted to reach beyond our 200 people in Connecticut.
[00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:11.920] You know what I mean?
[00:04:11.920 --> 00:04:19.040] Like to take advantage of this new, newfangled thing called social media to see if we could reach more people.
[00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:20.960] I think it worked.
[00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:26.000] Experiment successful.
[00:04:27.280 --> 00:04:28.400] But we're done now, right?
[00:04:28.560 --> 00:04:29.440] 1,000, right?
[00:04:29.760 --> 00:04:30.480] Can I relax?
[00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:34.560] Wednesday nights, could I just relax and, you know, right?
[00:04:34.880 --> 00:04:35.840] We've talked about this.
[00:04:35.840 --> 00:04:37.440] I mean, it's a hard thing to think about.
[00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:39.280] They've been renewed for another thousand episodes.
[00:04:39.920 --> 00:04:40.560] Yeah.
[00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:42.320] We all signed contracts.
[00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:50.880] The next 20 years are going to be very hard, right?
[00:04:50.880 --> 00:04:52.240] We're going to all become very old.
[00:04:52.560 --> 00:04:53.280] Well, here's the question.
[00:04:53.760 --> 00:04:54.320] Here's the question.
[00:04:54.320 --> 00:05:00.320] So there's like tons of bands that tour nowadays where there's no original members of that band, right?
[00:05:00.320 --> 00:05:04.240] So like, you know, you see the Doobie Brothers and it's like one guy.
[00:05:04.240 --> 00:05:11.200] Or it's like you see Fog Hat and it's the roadie of the cousin who used to carry the bass guitar and that's Fog Hat.
[00:05:11.200 --> 00:05:22.320] Do you ever see like the skeptic side of the universe being a bunch of other people that like somehow kind of will cycle their way in, and this will be like the like the symphony orchestra of skeptical podcasts?
[00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:24.000] So, we've been asked that question.
[00:05:24.000 --> 00:05:25.520] Funny, you should mention it, George.
[00:05:25.520 --> 00:05:33.480] No, we've been asked that question, and like what we got this one email like a couple of months ago, somebody was like, So, you know, you guys are getting pretty up there.
[00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:37.640] And I'm like, starting to get worried, like, what's going to happen?
[00:05:37.640 --> 00:05:41.400] And do you guys have like younger people that are ready to take over for you?
[00:05:41.400 --> 00:05:45.160] You know, like when you know, you know, when you die, you know?
[00:05:46.760 --> 00:05:54.120] So, well, first of all, the thing I like about podcasting is I could totally see myself doing this at 80.
[00:05:54.120 --> 00:05:55.320] Why not?
[00:05:55.320 --> 00:05:55.720] Right?
[00:05:56.040 --> 00:05:58.760] Because I'm sitting at home in front of my computer.
[00:05:58.760 --> 00:05:59.800] Talk into the machine.
[00:06:00.120 --> 00:06:00.760] Talking.
[00:06:01.080 --> 00:06:02.280] Hello, is this single?
[00:06:02.440 --> 00:06:10.360] As long as my voice holds up and I don't get demented and whatever, which can happen, but there's, you know, if you get demented, we'll run you for president.
[00:06:10.360 --> 00:06:11.640] Yeah, that's true.
[00:06:16.760 --> 00:06:20.840] And I don't care what political party you belong to, that's fucking fun.
[00:06:24.680 --> 00:06:34.280] But part, it's always been our mission, even before the podcast, to be a conduit for people who want to contribute to the skeptical community.
[00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:34.920] Right?
[00:06:35.240 --> 00:06:38.200] And this is partly why we collaborate with so many people.
[00:06:38.200 --> 00:06:43.880] It's like it's not just about us, it's about getting as many voices into this as possible.
[00:06:43.880 --> 00:06:56.200] So one idea that I've sort of run by these guys, but you haven't really settled on anything, but I really want to move forward with, is to start nurturing a younger generation of skeptical podcasters, right?
[00:06:56.200 --> 00:07:05.720] And so what I want to do is to work with what we call skeptical correspondents or SGU correspondents.
[00:07:05.880 --> 00:07:11.800] So, these would be somebody who, for example, would record a five-minute science news item.
[00:07:11.800 --> 00:07:20.960] Pick a news item, just record yourself, five minutes, and if it's good, we will include it in the show, and you will become a SGU correspondent.
[00:07:21.760 --> 00:07:32.400] And we obviously want to look for, first of all, because as has been pointed out to us a couple of times, we're mostly old white guys up here on the stage.
[00:07:32.720 --> 00:07:36.400] You know, and mostly, yeah, mostly.
[00:07:38.400 --> 00:07:44.080] And we know that we want to have a diversity of perspectives, a diversity of voices, and everything, because that's just good.
[00:07:44.080 --> 00:07:46.800] It's good intellectually, it's good, you know.
[00:07:47.120 --> 00:07:56.720] Yes, we have a certain synergy, but we're acutely aware of the massive overlap in our life experience, our cultural experience, and whatever.
[00:07:56.720 --> 00:08:01.520] So, this would be a way of bringing in a greater diversity, a greater range of voices as well.
[00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:04.640] So, we're going to do that.
[00:08:06.320 --> 00:08:12.240] And it's going to start with just people submitting, no promises, just this is like anything.
[00:08:12.800 --> 00:08:14.880] And they'll slowly vote you out and then just kind of get it.
[00:08:15.840 --> 00:08:16.560] Well, you never know what.
[00:08:16.960 --> 00:08:19.040] It's just, you know, I do.
[00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:26.080] And over the years, and this happened at the last NATACON, this happens every time we are in a room with people.
[00:08:26.080 --> 00:08:29.840] Like, there's somebody who comes up to like a 19-year-old, you know, plucky person.
[00:08:30.080 --> 00:08:32.400] I want to get into science communication, whatever.
[00:08:32.400 --> 00:08:34.400] And we're like, absolutely, we want to help you do that.
[00:08:34.400 --> 00:08:36.160] And don't even bother, kid.
[00:08:36.160 --> 00:08:36.640] Listen to me.
[00:08:37.120 --> 00:08:38.000] Get away from me, Kate.
[00:08:38.000 --> 00:08:40.000] You're blocking everyone's business, brother.
[00:08:40.320 --> 00:08:41.840] There's one thing I got to tell you.
[00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:42.960] Stay out of the skeptic.
[00:08:45.680 --> 00:08:49.200] I used to be able to sing and look at myself in the morning.
[00:08:49.560 --> 00:08:49.880] Steve.
[00:08:50.040 --> 00:08:50.800] No more, brother.
[00:08:50.800 --> 00:08:51.840] Not anymore.
[00:08:52.160 --> 00:08:55.360] Steve, I like, that's a good idea, but I got a better one.
[00:08:55.360 --> 00:09:03.000] We could go forward, us, essentially, for decades or centuries as uploaded AI constructs.
[00:08:59.920 --> 00:09:05.240] I'd like that idea.
[00:09:07.080 --> 00:09:12.840] But when you do that, you end up with three arms.
[00:09:13.800 --> 00:09:15.320] That could be a bonus.
[00:09:16.760 --> 00:09:17.000] Who knows?
[00:09:17.480 --> 00:09:18.760] That's a feature, not a bug, Cara.
[00:09:18.920 --> 00:09:21.400] But we don't have any idea what the future is going to be.
[00:09:21.640 --> 00:09:24.040] We don't know what AI is going to do.
[00:09:24.200 --> 00:09:25.720] We like to speculate and talk about it.
[00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:29.320] But the bottom line is, right now, we're all alive, we're human.
[00:09:29.960 --> 00:09:31.320] Let's stay human.
[00:09:31.320 --> 00:09:36.760] And I want to record the show for as long as, like you said, Steve, for as long as we can do it, I'd like to do it.
[00:09:36.760 --> 00:09:45.240] And I totally love the concept of bringing in some new people and we could do a slow transition to let a new group of people take over.
[00:09:45.240 --> 00:09:54.520] The real question is, and this is the question you're asking, George, is the SGU us or is the SGU a legacy that is more than us?
[00:09:54.520 --> 00:09:55.480] Right, an idea.
[00:09:55.480 --> 00:09:55.720] Right.
[00:09:55.720 --> 00:09:56.840] Is it more of an idea?
[00:09:56.840 --> 00:09:57.880] Is it right?
[00:09:58.200 --> 00:10:04.200] And that's a hard question to answer because it's only been us, you know, with little iteration.
[00:10:04.200 --> 00:10:15.160] And so I don't know what the answer to that question is, but it's very, it's interesting, and certainly I like the idea of the SGU being a legacy that survives beyond me and beyond us.
[00:10:15.160 --> 00:10:17.720] It obviously won't be the same, right?
[00:10:17.720 --> 00:10:20.200] It can't be, but nothing's ever going to be the same.
[00:10:20.680 --> 00:10:24.520] You can say that the iterations, though, have made the show stronger and better, I would say.
[00:10:24.600 --> 00:10:24.840] Totally.
[00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:32.840] So that's a good sign, you know, that making changes because you are cognizant, making changes, not just for change's sake, but just because they could really make a difference.
[00:10:33.160 --> 00:10:35.480] And we've very strategically made changes.
[00:10:35.720 --> 00:10:49.680] I mean, you know, we've talked about the fact that when we brought Kara on, there was a we spent six months, you know, making that decision, and it was very strategic, meaning we wanted somebody who was going to bring something awesome to the show, and she did.
[00:10:44.840 --> 00:10:51.040] You know, and we were very happy with that.
[00:10:51.120 --> 00:10:52.640] It exceeded our expectations.
[00:10:52.640 --> 00:10:54.000] But that was like very deliberate.
[00:10:54.000 --> 00:10:55.040] It wasn't just like an accident.
[00:10:55.040 --> 00:10:56.320] Like, hey, it wasn't a whim.
[00:10:56.320 --> 00:10:59.600] You know, it was like, the show needs this kind of voice.
[00:10:59.600 --> 00:11:00.320] She's perfect.
[00:11:00.320 --> 00:11:02.000] Let's bring her on and make the show better.
[00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:03.040] And that's what happened.
[00:11:03.040 --> 00:11:04.800] So are you taking like applications now?
[00:11:05.040 --> 00:11:06.080] Or what's the process of?
[00:11:06.480 --> 00:11:06.880] Yeah, so.
[00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:08.880] No, if people are interested, I mean, if there's young people listening.
[00:11:09.760 --> 00:11:10.640] This was the announcement.
[00:11:10.640 --> 00:11:13.840] If you want to, this is something you feel like you're interested in doing.
[00:11:13.840 --> 00:11:17.360] And I have spoken to some specific people about this already.
[00:11:17.360 --> 00:11:19.440] That obviously I know personally already.
[00:11:19.440 --> 00:11:21.280] But send in a clip.
[00:11:21.920 --> 00:11:23.440] We'll give you feedback.
[00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:24.800] We may or may not use it.
[00:11:24.800 --> 00:11:33.520] But we want to develop a relationship with like two or three people who like maybe once a few weeks or something we include a clip into the show that's just like another perspective.
[00:11:33.520 --> 00:11:38.320] Somebody from Australia or somebody, whatever, from a completely different perspective or with a different expertise.
[00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:39.680] That's the other thing.
[00:11:40.160 --> 00:11:52.080] When we were like thinking about who would we bring on the show, it's also about, well, we need, we might as well try to bring in somebody who has some expertise of their own that complements what we already have on the show.
[00:11:52.080 --> 00:11:56.240] So it's not just about diversity of background and perspective.
[00:11:56.240 --> 00:11:58.080] It's also diversity of expertise.
[00:11:58.080 --> 00:12:00.640] Because there was talk about so many things on the show.
[00:12:01.280 --> 00:12:14.640] And obviously we go way, you know, as science journalists, you know, we get to topics where we have no topic expertise, so we have to rely upon our journalistic expertise, which is tricky.
[00:12:14.640 --> 00:12:16.320] It's really hard.
[00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:20.720] And it's always nice to have somebody with actual topic expertise.
[00:12:20.720 --> 00:12:30.040] Which is why we also like to partner with people like say Brian Wecht, who we were talking about just before we started the show, who's like, oh, a physicist, an actual physicist.
[00:12:29.760 --> 00:12:33.800] They probably have some topic expertise on physics that we don't have.
[00:12:34.760 --> 00:12:40.360] So anyway, this is all, I think, also part of what I think of as the legacy of the show.
[00:12:40.360 --> 00:12:47.800] But we don't know what the future brings, but at no point in the last 20 years do we get to the point where like, let's just keep doing exactly what we're doing.
[00:12:47.800 --> 00:12:48.600] And you know what I mean?
[00:12:48.600 --> 00:12:50.040] And not even think about changing.
[00:12:50.200 --> 00:12:52.840] It's always about what's the next thing?
[00:12:52.840 --> 00:12:53.800] What's the next thing?
[00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:56.280] What are we not doing now that we should be doing?
[00:12:57.160 --> 00:13:04.520] There are very few examples of things that last for decades and that don't iterate and don't change over time.
[00:13:04.840 --> 00:13:07.080] Their essence might be the same and they might be similar or whatever.
[00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:09.160] But yeah, but you have to be able to modify.
[00:13:09.640 --> 00:13:10.760] And which you guys are doing.
[00:13:11.320 --> 00:13:12.040] We're trying.
[00:13:12.040 --> 00:13:12.360] Yeah.
[00:13:13.000 --> 00:13:16.680] All right, so we are going to do some actual meaty content.
[00:13:16.680 --> 00:13:19.400] We're not just going to talk about ourselves for an hour and a half.
[00:13:19.720 --> 00:13:21.640] As exciting as that would be.
[00:13:21.960 --> 00:13:31.880] My task for the rogues was so we're going to, obviously this is a bit of a retrospective show, but we're not just going to do the best of clips or whatever.
[00:13:32.200 --> 00:13:47.480] What you are going to do is rather than just doing like, here's the one narrow news item that's happening right now, we wanted to take a look at the arc of some of the topics that we've covered over the last 20 years and sort of give a look back about that topic.
[00:13:47.480 --> 00:14:04.360] And it's also, it's a little bit of a victory lap in that it's where it's like 20 years ago, this is what topic that we were confronting, and this is what the true believers had to say about it, the deniers had to say about it, this is what the skeptics had to say about it.
[00:14:04.360 --> 00:14:13.480] Let's look back and see what's happened over the last 20 years to see, I don't want to say who was right, but you get the idea.
[00:14:13.880 --> 00:14:14.720] How it panned out.
[00:14:15.200 --> 00:14:17.600] Well, we could cherry pick it and make it look like we're very smart.
[00:14:18.000 --> 00:14:18.720] We could cherry pick it.
[00:14:14.520 --> 00:14:19.840] We have a lot to cherry pick it.
[00:14:19.920 --> 00:14:23.360] But anyway, these are topics that I think we should cover.
[00:14:23.360 --> 00:14:25.200] So I'm going to start.
[00:14:25.200 --> 00:14:25.840] Okay.
[00:14:26.480 --> 00:14:29.200] And I'm going to talk about global warming.
[00:14:29.200 --> 00:14:36.320] Because that global warming has one of the biggest topics that we have covered for the last 20 years.
[00:14:36.880 --> 00:14:45.040] Right at the beginning of our really our entry into skepticism, certainly podcasting, this was a big topic.
[00:14:45.040 --> 00:14:49.680] And it has been a fairly active and dynamic topic over the last 20 years.
[00:14:50.160 --> 00:14:55.760] Here's a graph of the changing average surface temperatures of the Earth.
[00:14:56.080 --> 00:15:05.520] Going back to 1880, but you could look at the last 2000 to 2020, basically the period of time that we've been podcasting.
[00:15:05.520 --> 00:15:09.600] There's a pretty steep curve up of temperatures.
[00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:14.400] But I'm going to go back a little bit further and talk about a climate change denial timeline.
[00:15:14.400 --> 00:15:15.280] Here we go.
[00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:18.160] 1896, this is how far back it goes.
[00:15:18.160 --> 00:15:33.200] 1896, Savante Arrhenius predicted that CO2 was a greenhouse gas and that it would cause the presence of CO2 in the atmosphere would warm the atmosphere because it traps reflected heat, et cetera.
[00:15:33.200 --> 00:15:38.640] And it sort of reached an equilibrium point that depends on how much CO2 there is in the atmosphere.
[00:15:38.640 --> 00:15:42.960] So we knew about this going back to 1896.
[00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:55.440] In 1938, another scientist, Guy Callender, said that CO2, this is not just CO2, but the CO2 that's being released into the atmosphere will cause global warming.
[00:15:55.680 --> 00:15:59.280] So it's not just that this is part of geology.
[00:15:59.280 --> 00:16:02.200] This is actually something that's happening in the world.
[00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:06.680] So again, going back to 1938, we knew, we knew this was happening.
[00:16:07.320 --> 00:16:25.080] In 1950, the 1950s, the fossil fuel industry was warned that burning their product, you know, fossil fuels, releases CO2 into the atmosphere, causes global warming, and can potentially be significantly harmful.
[00:16:25.080 --> 00:16:34.840] In 1970, Shell and BP, these are two fossil fuel companies, funded climate research, but they didn't just say we're going to fund climate research.
[00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:48.840] They specifically funded scientists to push against the mainstream, the emerging mainstream scientific opinion that man-made CO2 was causing global climate change.
[00:16:49.240 --> 00:17:04.040] This is basically the beginning of a well-financed campaign of science denial meant to cause uncertainty and doubt about the effects of burning fossil fuels on the climate.
[00:17:04.040 --> 00:17:12.520] In 1981, Exxon was again warned that CO2 emissions not only are warming the planet, but the results could be quote-unquote catastrophic.
[00:17:12.520 --> 00:17:15.640] These are all documented from internal records, et cetera.
[00:17:15.640 --> 00:17:18.120] So Exxon actually said that themselves?
[00:17:18.920 --> 00:17:20.840] This is their own internal documentation.
[00:17:21.000 --> 00:17:22.040] It didn't get out?
[00:17:22.360 --> 00:17:24.440] It's out now, but yes, at the time.
[00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:24.920] But yes.
[00:17:25.320 --> 00:17:26.120] So just like the...
[00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:29.800] So they knew that fossil fuel was causing global warming.
[00:17:29.800 --> 00:17:32.040] They were told by scientists it's going to be catastrophic.
[00:17:32.360 --> 00:17:36.680] Essentially, their response was, let's fund scientists to give us a different answer.
[00:17:36.840 --> 00:17:39.000] This sounds like when the tobacco companies did.
[00:17:39.000 --> 00:17:40.600] They hired scientists, right?
[00:17:40.600 --> 00:17:43.000] And they buried the evidence that the scientists found.
[00:17:43.320 --> 00:17:45.360] Interesting, you mentioned the tobacco industry, Evan.
[00:17:45.600 --> 00:17:46.480] We'll get to that.
[00:17:46.560 --> 00:17:51.600] 1985, Carl Sagan testified to Congress about anthropogenic global warming.
[00:17:51.920 --> 00:17:56.160] So this is when it really, for me, that's when it really became like, oh, this is an issue.
[00:17:56.160 --> 00:18:06.480] I remember that was the first I heard about it was from Carl Sagan, just outlining, we're burning fossil fuel, we're releasing CO2, it's warming the planet, this is not sustainable, we need another way.
[00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:09.440] For me, it was an inconvenient truth when that documentary came out.
[00:18:09.440 --> 00:18:11.600] Yeah, that was a big part of it, too.
[00:18:11.920 --> 00:18:21.200] Steve, was there any sense, though, that this wasn't something that would really manifest in 300 years, but a generation late?
[00:18:22.160 --> 00:18:25.920] Yeah, so I think that's when an inconvenient truth came out.
[00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:29.760] It was like, this is not something theoretical for 300 years from now.
[00:18:29.760 --> 00:18:33.360] This is going to be happening in the lifetime of people who are alive today.
[00:18:34.960 --> 00:18:44.320] 1989, the Global Climate Coalition, this is a coalition of fossil fuel companies who banded together to push back against the narrative of HEW.
[00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:54.880] Now, Evan, these two guys, Seats and Singer, are scientists who were hired by the fossil fuel industry to dispute anthropogenic global warming.
[00:18:54.880 --> 00:19:00.480] They're the same two guys who were hired by the tobacco industry to sow doubt about the causes of cancer.
[00:19:00.480 --> 00:19:03.360] It's the same actual guys, right?
[00:19:03.360 --> 00:19:11.600] Not just the same strategy of, oh, we're going to hire experts to come up with a specific answer that's favorable to our industry.
[00:19:11.600 --> 00:19:13.520] It's literally the same people.
[00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:22.480] When you zoom out on that, like, you know, that the people that worked for Exxon or that coalition that they came up with, this is what the conversation was like.
[00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:23.880] George, play with me for a second.
[00:19:23.680 --> 00:19:24.200] Okay.
[00:19:24.800 --> 00:19:27.440] So they're, you know, we've got a problem here.
[00:19:27.840 --> 00:19:28.400] We need help.
[00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:29.600] We've got to figure out how to do this.
[00:19:29.600 --> 00:19:31.000] What do we got?
[00:19:31.000 --> 00:19:32.760] I know a guy.
[00:19:29.920 --> 00:19:35.240] Is he a scientist?
[00:19:37.560 --> 00:19:39.320] Will he do what we tell him to do?
[00:19:39.320 --> 00:19:40.200] Oh, yeah.
[00:19:41.960 --> 00:19:45.640] Table him, give him a million dollars, and then let's go on vacation.
[00:19:45.800 --> 00:19:46.840] John Boston.
[00:19:46.840 --> 00:19:48.840] So these were hired guns, right?
[00:19:48.840 --> 00:19:51.560] This is like the very definition of a hired gun.
[00:19:51.560 --> 00:19:53.560] Do you guys remember the global warming pause?
[00:19:53.560 --> 00:19:54.520] Remember that term?
[00:19:54.520 --> 00:19:57.160] 1998 to 2013.
[00:19:57.160 --> 00:19:58.440] It was never real.
[00:19:58.440 --> 00:19:59.480] It was never real.
[00:19:59.480 --> 00:20:05.960] But this is sort of the, now we're getting to the period of time when we were active in skepticism and when the podcast was starting.
[00:20:05.960 --> 00:20:13.720] It was right in the middle of when the, what I would call global warming deniers were saying, oh, global warming's not actually even happening.
[00:20:13.720 --> 00:20:19.880] It's all just, this is just the natural fluctuation in temperature, in the climate.
[00:20:19.880 --> 00:20:20.600] Who knows?
[00:20:20.600 --> 00:20:27.320] It could be driven by solar activity, or we're just sort of recovering from the mini ice age in the Middle Ages still.
[00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:34.120] And yeah, so it's, and in fact, global warming hasn't even happened for the last 16 years.
[00:20:34.120 --> 00:20:38.200] There's really two ways in which they created that false narrative.
[00:20:38.200 --> 00:20:39.400] I mean, they're both just lying.
[00:20:39.400 --> 00:20:41.480] But I mean, there are two sort of strategies.
[00:20:41.480 --> 00:20:51.880] One was so they cherry-picked as their starting point a high point in the natural short-term fluctuation of climate change, right?
[00:20:51.880 --> 00:20:57.560] That it was an El NiΓ±o, like a strong El NiΓ±o year, where it was, this is 1997.
[00:20:57.880 --> 00:21:01.240] 1997 was a particularly hot year.
[00:21:01.560 --> 00:21:20.400] And then if you look at the following 10 to 15 years, there's still this trend if you ignore that artificially cherry-picked high starting point, but you can kind of create graphically create this illusion that there was no warming over the last 15 years.
[00:21:21.520 --> 00:21:24.400] So, and they said, see, it's not even really happening anymore.
[00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:32.720] Now, the other thing is that it's, so they cherry-picked their starting point, but they also cherry-picked a short run of temperature.
[00:21:32.720 --> 00:21:47.520] The climate scientists use a 30-year horizon in order to, they're constantly looking over, you know, averaging temperatures over 30 years in order to produce like a statistical trend in the climate.
[00:21:47.520 --> 00:21:51.200] It takes 30 years for it to become statistically significant, right?
[00:21:51.200 --> 00:21:52.720] Is one way to look at it.
[00:21:52.720 --> 00:21:59.040] Which means if you ever look at a 10-year period, there's not going to be any significant change by definition.
[00:21:59.040 --> 00:22:03.600] It just hasn't been enough time for the statistics to play itself out.
[00:22:03.840 --> 00:22:08.080] So, you can always say it's not currently warming, right?
[00:22:08.080 --> 00:22:13.840] You could always say it's statistically speaking, you know, there hasn't been, yeah, of course, because it's a 30-year freaking trend.
[00:22:13.840 --> 00:22:15.520] You can't look at it over a 10 years.
[00:22:15.520 --> 00:22:21.520] So, for those two reasons, the pause was always BS, like it was never real.
[00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:29.520] And so, what were the people who did not believe in global warming or were paid not to believe in it or whatever you think about it?
[00:22:29.520 --> 00:22:36.400] The people who were doubtful of anthropogenic global warming, what were they saying in 2005 when we started the podcast?
[00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:37.920] Well, it's not really happening.
[00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:38.960] We're in a pause.
[00:22:38.960 --> 00:22:50.400] The pause really is, you know, so this is all just natural fluctuation that will regress to the mean, and over the next 10 to 20 years, temperatures are going to settle back down to where they were in the 1980s, 1990s.
[00:22:50.800 --> 00:22:52.400] That's what they were predicting.
[00:22:52.400 --> 00:22:53.920] That's what they were saying.
[00:22:53.920 --> 00:22:56.160] Here we are, 2024.
[00:22:56.160 --> 00:23:01.320] The last 10 years are the hottest 10 years on record.
[00:23:01.640 --> 00:23:04.520] If you go, you guys all know the hockey stick, right?
[00:22:59.760 --> 00:23:06.200] Michael Mann's hockey stick.
[00:23:06.360 --> 00:23:08.600] I've had Michael Mann on the show a couple of times.
[00:23:08.600 --> 00:23:09.160] Here it is.
[00:23:09.160 --> 00:23:10.440] I'm showing you a graph.
[00:23:10.440 --> 00:23:21.560] This is just the end point of it, you know, where temperatures are pretty flat over centuries, and then in the last 30, 40, 50 years, they curve up, you know, like the blade of a hockey stick, right?
[00:23:21.560 --> 00:23:27.480] This has been replicated over and over and over again from multiple, multiple different independent sources of information.
[00:23:27.480 --> 00:23:37.080] And, you know, it's really undeniable now that the predictions of people who were saying that AGW is happening are correct.
[00:23:37.080 --> 00:23:48.680] And in fact, I remember like in 2010, there were skeptics who made a public offer, like a wager, you know, to climate sign, to climate deniers.
[00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:52.520] It's like, go ahead then, make your prediction for the next 10 years, right?
[00:23:52.520 --> 00:23:55.800] And we'll make our prediction for the next 10 years, and we'll see who's right.
[00:23:55.800 --> 00:23:56.920] And nobody bit, right?
[00:23:56.920 --> 00:23:59.080] Because they knew that they were going to lose.
[00:23:59.080 --> 00:24:03.560] And of course, the scientists were correct because it is happening, right?
[00:24:03.640 --> 00:24:05.480] Anthropogenic global warming is happening.
[00:24:05.640 --> 00:24:08.040] What was your viewpoint in 2005 when the show started?
[00:24:08.040 --> 00:24:09.640] Where were you on the argument?
[00:24:09.880 --> 00:24:15.080] So, all right, so we were totally on board with AGW, except for Perry, right?
[00:24:15.080 --> 00:24:17.640] Because Perry, this was his bias.
[00:24:18.120 --> 00:24:21.000] And he and I fought about this, right?
[00:24:21.080 --> 00:24:23.960] I mean, personally, fought about this.
[00:24:23.960 --> 00:24:27.960] And he never liked it when I destroyed his arguments, right?
[00:24:28.600 --> 00:24:29.400] Oh?
[00:24:29.720 --> 00:24:30.680] Yeah, no, he didn't like that.
[00:24:30.840 --> 00:24:31.880] None of us do, Steve.
[00:24:34.440 --> 00:24:36.520] But it wasn't like Perry was an outlier either.
[00:24:36.520 --> 00:24:37.880] There were others in the skeptical community.
[00:24:38.040 --> 00:24:39.000] There were others in the skeptical community.
[00:24:40.200 --> 00:24:41.000] Yeah, that's why I was wondering.
[00:24:41.240 --> 00:24:47.600] There were others in the skeptical community, you know, all libertarians, you know, that also doubted global warming.
[00:24:47.600 --> 00:24:49.520] And so Perry was sort of in that crowd.
[00:24:49.520 --> 00:24:56.960] And I always wonder, because again, he died before I had a chance to find out, could I have, how long would it have taken for me to really bring him around?
[00:24:56.960 --> 00:24:59.280] You know, we don't know, unfortunately.
[00:24:59.600 --> 00:25:00.960] What was his main argument?
[00:25:01.680 --> 00:25:04.640] Well, it's whatever the arguments were floating around at the time.
[00:25:04.880 --> 00:25:06.240] You know, they were never good.
[00:25:06.560 --> 00:25:07.040] Right.
[00:25:07.040 --> 00:25:10.320] Yeah, normal fluctuation, and then there are volcanoes.
[00:25:10.560 --> 00:25:10.880] Yeah.
[00:25:11.760 --> 00:25:13.040] It was cold yesterday.
[00:25:13.520 --> 00:25:14.800] Not that stupid, but I mean.
[00:25:17.600 --> 00:25:20.480] And the thing is, here's the thing that's true about global warming, right?
[00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:25.680] And we talk about this just as science communication strategists, right?
[00:25:25.680 --> 00:25:33.120] How do you address, how do you change people's minds when they believe something that's not scientifically valid, not scientifically true?
[00:25:33.120 --> 00:25:35.600] And the answer is it depends on what the topic is, right?
[00:25:35.600 --> 00:25:37.280] This is something that we learned.
[00:25:37.280 --> 00:25:41.440] You know, 1995, Carl Sagan would say it's an information deficit problem.
[00:25:41.680 --> 00:25:46.000] People believe pseudoscience in direct proportion to their ignorance of actual science.
[00:25:46.000 --> 00:25:49.200] That's like almost an exact quote from Carl Sagan.
[00:25:49.200 --> 00:25:52.800] And it turns out that that's not true most of the time.
[00:25:52.800 --> 00:25:57.120] It is true for some topics, like GMOs.
[00:25:57.440 --> 00:26:15.280] Global warming is at one end of the spectrum where people who deny global warming know more about climate science than the average person and sometimes more than the people that are debating them from the scientific point of view, like if they're just other journalists, not experts, right?
[00:26:15.600 --> 00:26:19.760] And giving them information has no effect on their belief.
[00:26:19.760 --> 00:26:25.200] In fact, if anything, they're the one group where there's some evidence where they might dig in their heels.
[00:26:25.200 --> 00:26:32.920] So this is which is, I think, a way of saying that global warming denial is a sophisticated pseudoscience.
[00:26:33.000 --> 00:26:39.560] They have, because they're spending millions of dollars hiring scientists to fund an industry of denial.
[00:26:39.560 --> 00:26:42.280] So, yes, of course they have sophisticated arguments.
[00:26:42.280 --> 00:26:43.720] They're bought and paid for.
[00:26:43.720 --> 00:26:46.920] Yeah, and there's good motivated reasoning for them.
[00:26:47.320 --> 00:26:49.320] It's an industry that they need to protect.
[00:26:49.320 --> 00:26:53.800] I mean, it's a multi-billion dollar industry, and they don't want to lose their profits.
[00:26:53.800 --> 00:26:54.440] Right, right.
[00:26:55.160 --> 00:27:00.840] Their literal strategy is to delay this until they can get all of their assets out of the ground.
[00:27:01.080 --> 00:27:02.120] That's their goal.
[00:27:02.760 --> 00:27:08.680] They don't want to shut down fossil fuel until they've capitalized on all of their assets.
[00:27:08.680 --> 00:27:09.160] That's it.
[00:27:09.160 --> 00:27:09.720] That's their goal.
[00:27:09.720 --> 00:27:10.920] And you know what?
[00:27:10.920 --> 00:27:12.440] They're freaking winning.
[00:27:12.760 --> 00:27:13.720] They are winning.
[00:27:13.720 --> 00:27:14.760] It's working.
[00:27:15.720 --> 00:27:17.480] We're producing more fossil fuel.
[00:27:17.480 --> 00:27:21.080] We're burning more fossil fuel now than we ever have.
[00:27:21.080 --> 00:27:24.040] We haven't even turned the ship around yet.
[00:27:24.040 --> 00:27:28.840] You know, we talk often about how long is it going to take to get to net zero, whatever.
[00:27:28.840 --> 00:27:30.440] We haven't even turned a corner yet.
[00:27:30.440 --> 00:27:31.880] We're still going up.
[00:27:33.000 --> 00:27:33.640] It's amazing.
[00:27:33.640 --> 00:27:34.920] It's disheartening.
[00:27:34.920 --> 00:27:42.600] But I do think the conversation has turned around, but it hasn't yet had an impact on the actual reality yet.
[00:27:42.600 --> 00:27:44.520] Because it's not easy.
[00:27:44.760 --> 00:27:46.120] We are asking a lot.
[00:27:46.600 --> 00:27:49.480] Collectively, people are saying, we've got to fix global warming.
[00:27:49.480 --> 00:27:50.680] It's not a quick fix.
[00:27:50.680 --> 00:27:54.440] It's like we have to turn around multiple industries.
[00:27:54.440 --> 00:27:56.200] There's a massive amount of momentum.
[00:27:57.320 --> 00:27:59.320] We are trying to change civilization.
[00:27:59.320 --> 00:28:00.200] We get it.
[00:28:00.200 --> 00:28:01.240] It's not easy.
[00:28:01.240 --> 00:28:14.480] And the misinformation, the disinformation that is spread is convincing people that the grid is never going to be able to handle electric cars, and electric cars are horrible to produce because of all the chemicals that they use.
[00:28:14.360 --> 00:28:19.840] And even other industries that are tangential to this, they're discrediting them.
[00:28:20.480 --> 00:28:29.040] They circulate these images online of somebody had a diesel generator running a machine to put power into their electric car.
[00:28:29.040 --> 00:28:30.880] Yeah, some idiot did that somewhere.
[00:28:31.440 --> 00:28:32.560] That's not what's happening.
[00:28:33.520 --> 00:28:37.920] So the real problem is that this is politically motivated.
[00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:38.160] Of course.
[00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:39.440] I don't doubt about that.
[00:28:39.600 --> 00:28:50.720] And it follows, as we'll probably continue to see throughout the show today, it follows this very classic course of adjusting and adapting the rhetoric for a more sophisticated audience.
[00:28:50.720 --> 00:28:55.360] Because I think it's quite rare now to see people who are just flat out deniers.
[00:28:55.360 --> 00:28:58.240] I think most of the people you see is go, okay, well, yeah, maybe it is.
[00:28:58.240 --> 00:28:58.640] Okay.
[00:28:58.640 --> 00:29:01.520] We can't deny this getting warmer, but it's not anthropogenic.
[00:29:01.840 --> 00:29:02.800] Or it is, but how do we know it's a warmer?
[00:29:02.960 --> 00:29:03.840] Or it is, but yeah.
[00:29:03.840 --> 00:29:08.640] But you're talking about sinking all this money into something that we don't even know if it's going to work.
[00:29:08.640 --> 00:29:17.200] So there's always the goalpost continues to move, but the core argument, which is I need to keep doing what I've been doing.
[00:29:17.600 --> 00:29:19.520] But it's always a tell, right?
[00:29:20.160 --> 00:29:23.760] And it's the same thing with the anti-vaccine community as well.
[00:29:23.760 --> 00:29:29.840] It's like, no matter what the argument, no matter what the line of attack, it's always, the answer is always the same.
[00:29:29.840 --> 00:29:30.640] Do nothing.
[00:29:31.040 --> 00:29:31.600] Right?
[00:29:31.600 --> 00:29:34.800] Or with the anti-vaccine movement, it's always the same answer.
[00:29:34.800 --> 00:29:35.920] It's the vaccines.
[00:29:35.920 --> 00:29:36.960] It's always the vaccines.
[00:29:37.200 --> 00:29:38.240] Which is also a do-nothing.
[00:29:38.240 --> 00:29:39.280] It's like, don't get vaccinated.
[00:29:39.440 --> 00:29:40.560] Like, that's the do-nothing issue.
[00:29:41.120 --> 00:29:48.960] Yeah, but again, the fossil fuel industry is like, do nothing until we get all of our oil out of the ground, and then we'll be dead, and we don't care.
[00:29:49.400 --> 00:29:54.000] But yeah, so yeah, no matter what the argument is, it's always the same.
[00:29:54.000 --> 00:29:59.320] So that's how you know it's motivated reasoning, because the end result is always the same.
[00:29:59.120 --> 00:30:03.480] All right, we're going to move on, and this is a sort of related topic.
[00:30:03.560 --> 00:30:08.520] Jay, you're going to talk about our coverage of solar panels over the last 20 years.
[00:30:08.840 --> 00:30:12.920] I picked solar collection solar panels, and I wanted to talk about it.
[00:30:12.920 --> 00:30:20.840] First, I want to talk about when we first talked about it as kind of like a marker of what was going on in the news at that time and everything.
[00:30:21.160 --> 00:30:30.520] So, a listener of the show, who's one of our patrons, built some free software for us that lets us textually search the podcast now.
[00:30:30.520 --> 00:30:31.320] Wow.
[00:30:31.640 --> 00:30:34.440] And we're going to roll this out to everyone eventually.
[00:30:35.400 --> 00:30:42.840] Ian and I have been talking about how to make it better and how to give it a little bit more user interface reliability and everything.
[00:30:42.840 --> 00:30:46.120] But I used it a lot, and it's pretty damn cool.
[00:30:46.120 --> 00:30:48.440] So, I'm curious, Steve, when do you think?
[00:30:48.440 --> 00:30:49.400] Don't look at my screen.
[00:30:49.400 --> 00:30:54.520] When do you think, what year, what episode did we first, first, first talk about solar panels?
[00:30:55.320 --> 00:30:58.840] I don't remember, but I would guess it was early, early on.
[00:30:59.480 --> 00:31:05.640] My memory is like sometime around 2000, between 2005 and 2007, we talked about solar panels.
[00:31:05.640 --> 00:31:09.720] And at the time, the efficiency was at about 12%.
[00:31:09.720 --> 00:31:11.400] Yeah, that's damn close, man.
[00:31:11.400 --> 00:31:13.480] Steve's brain is awesome.
[00:31:13.800 --> 00:31:27.800] 2008, episode 135, Steve talked about it, and he said it's not quite at the breakout level in terms of cost-effectiveness, but it's interesting that they didn't say that they didn't make solar energy more efficient.
[00:31:27.800 --> 00:31:30.200] They said make it affordable, and I think that's right.
[00:31:30.200 --> 00:31:38.520] Right now, the efficiency for commercial solar panels is around 12% in terms of the amount of solar energy that's converted to electricity.
[00:31:38.520 --> 00:31:50.080] So, I have a couple of interesting things here about the snapshot of what did people who believed in it or were saying, hey, this is an interesting thing, what were they saying?
[00:31:50.080 --> 00:31:51.920] And then what were the cynics saying?
[00:31:51.920 --> 00:32:00.000] So the people who were supporting it were saying that, first off, there was an increased and growing interest in renewable energy.
[00:32:00.000 --> 00:32:03.120] More and more people were hearing about it and were finding it compelling.
[00:32:03.120 --> 00:32:08.560] Many solar, they were saying solar energy is going to be a crucial component of future energy.
[00:32:08.560 --> 00:32:10.480] It's going to be heavy in the mix.
[00:32:10.480 --> 00:32:16.240] There was awareness and politicians were changing their rhetoric about it.
[00:32:16.560 --> 00:32:21.200] There were some technological advancements that were happening back around 2008.
[00:32:21.200 --> 00:32:23.280] There was an increase in efficiency happening.
[00:32:23.280 --> 00:32:27.280] It wasn't a lot, but people were seeing reports of it happening and a decrease in costs.
[00:32:27.280 --> 00:32:29.520] And those two things always match each other.
[00:32:29.520 --> 00:32:31.840] Increase in efficiency, lower cost, always.
[00:32:32.480 --> 00:32:37.280] There was government support via incentives like tax credits and subsidies.
[00:32:37.280 --> 00:32:43.760] And people were beginning to talk about energy independence and the environmental benefits.
[00:32:44.160 --> 00:32:49.680] Again, just keep in mind, very beginning of the talks about this stuff, not that long ago, 2008.
[00:32:49.680 --> 00:32:55.520] The cynics were saying, look, it's way too expensive, and that right there, it's a deal killer.
[00:32:55.520 --> 00:32:57.920] Not thinking, well, yeah, it needs to progress.
[00:32:57.920 --> 00:33:02.960] The technology is not going to, like, tomorrow, all of a sudden, have, you know, be above the waterline.
[00:33:02.960 --> 00:33:04.880] Like, investments need to happen.
[00:33:04.880 --> 00:33:15.440] They also were saying that the efficiency and reliability were not there at all, like the reliability of the technology and being able to get it into the grid and all that stuff.
[00:33:15.440 --> 00:33:18.080] Yeah, it really wasn't there back in 2008.
[00:33:18.080 --> 00:33:24.960] They were correct, but it wasn't something to say that would make you not want to invest the money and keep pushing the technology.
[00:33:24.960 --> 00:33:29.120] They thought that the solar industry was too dependent on govern government subsidies.
[00:33:29.120 --> 00:33:29.680] And you know what?
[00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:47.000] Back then it was you know that that and I think that's fine because the governments are there to to create new industries and put money into programs that in the future will pay off They were saying that it will never be able to compete with coal, gas, and nuke.
[00:33:47.000 --> 00:33:48.440] And they were wrong.
[00:33:48.680 --> 00:33:52.360] They also said that the grid integration is going to be too difficult.
[00:33:52.360 --> 00:33:54.760] It's going to be too costly to take on.
[00:33:54.760 --> 00:33:57.960] And unfortunately, you know, that's true today.
[00:33:57.960 --> 00:33:59.080] It's very expensive.
[00:33:59.480 --> 00:34:01.160] But you have to put it into perspective.
[00:34:01.160 --> 00:34:07.400] Because whenever I get into conversations with people about solar, I often find that there's this dichotomy.
[00:34:07.400 --> 00:34:11.160] It's like, well, like, it won't work at 100%, therefore it's worthless.
[00:34:11.160 --> 00:34:13.960] It's like, well, okay, but it could work at 30%.
[00:34:13.960 --> 00:34:20.280] You know, like, all of these problems only really start to kick in when you get north of, I don't know, 30, 40% penetration.
[00:34:20.520 --> 00:34:22.120] You could argue about that.
[00:34:22.120 --> 00:34:27.800] But there isn't really a grid problem until we get to 30% or so.
[00:34:27.800 --> 00:34:30.200] So, and we're nowhere near that.
[00:34:30.200 --> 00:34:32.760] So we have a lot of room to expand.
[00:34:32.760 --> 00:34:37.080] And obviously, we could then expand the grid as we're doing it so that we can keep ahead of it.
[00:34:37.160 --> 00:34:38.120] Yeah, we just need to do it, though.
[00:34:38.280 --> 00:34:38.840] We just need to do it.
[00:34:39.000 --> 00:34:39.720] Slow and steady.
[00:34:39.720 --> 00:34:40.360] That's fine.
[00:34:41.080 --> 00:34:42.360] We're never going to have like this.
[00:34:42.600 --> 00:34:44.280] We're going to rewire the United States.
[00:34:44.280 --> 00:34:45.080] It's not going to happen.
[00:34:45.640 --> 00:34:50.520] We've got to make these solid incremental technological increases to do it.
[00:34:50.520 --> 00:34:51.000] Okay.
[00:34:51.000 --> 00:35:01.240] So I thought that I would just go into a little detail about comparing 2004 to 2024, just to give you guys some figures and ideas of where it's come from.
[00:35:01.400 --> 00:35:07.160] And just as a quick aside, humans using solar energy is ancient.
[00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:10.120] We've been using the sun to do lots of things.
[00:35:11.240 --> 00:35:17.520] If you look at the history of it, it's fascinating because the sun has always been a source of energy to humans.
[00:35:18.000 --> 00:35:26.880] Even a thousand years ago, they were doing things that the sun was a crucial part of, even like curing meats and food and all that stuff.
[00:35:26.880 --> 00:35:33.200] So modern times, us shifting into using the sun for energy is obvious as hell.
[00:35:33.200 --> 00:35:36.640] We've known about this for 50, 60 years.
[00:35:36.640 --> 00:35:40.960] We were talking about, scientists were talking about using the sun as a source of energy.
[00:35:40.960 --> 00:35:46.480] So anyway, 2004, average solar panel efficiency was around 12 to 15 percent.
[00:35:46.640 --> 00:35:52.720] And of course, this means that 12 to 15 percent of the sunlight that hits the solar panels is actually being converted into electricity.
[00:35:52.720 --> 00:35:57.120] In 2024, does anybody have an idea where it is?
[00:35:57.120 --> 00:35:58.000] Somebody raise your hand quick.
[00:35:58.000 --> 00:35:58.880] I'll pick somebody.
[00:35:59.680 --> 00:36:01.360] Correct, 22 to 25.
[00:36:01.360 --> 00:36:02.320] You're both win.
[00:36:02.320 --> 00:36:03.440] Very good.
[00:36:03.760 --> 00:36:07.680] We have laboratory prototypes right now reaching 29%.
[00:36:07.680 --> 00:36:17.360] We can, you know, essentially they're coming up with better methods to trap the sunlight and to turn it into energy.
[00:36:17.360 --> 00:36:19.120] The cost, let's talk about cost now.
[00:36:19.120 --> 00:36:25.200] So back in 2004, the cost for solar panels was approximately $5 to $7 per watt.
[00:36:25.520 --> 00:36:33.760] I know it's a little hard for most of us to understand watts and how many watts of each panel or whatever, but let's just use watts in that dollar figure to compare panels back then to today.
[00:36:33.760 --> 00:36:36.240] So $5 to $7 per watt back then.
[00:36:36.560 --> 00:36:39.040] And today we are at anybody?
[00:36:39.040 --> 00:36:40.000] $0.50.
[00:36:40.560 --> 00:36:42.800] 50 cents is the figure that I found.
[00:36:42.800 --> 00:36:44.000] You said 20 cents?
[00:36:44.480 --> 00:36:46.080] All right, that's really good, actually.
[00:36:46.240 --> 00:36:48.400] I hope you're right, and my figure is wrong here.
[00:36:48.400 --> 00:36:50.240] It's like a bad Avidan Costello thing.
[00:36:50.240 --> 00:36:52.240] It's like 4 cents per watt, per watt.
[00:36:52.240 --> 00:36:53.200] You tell me.
[00:36:53.840 --> 00:36:54.720] For what?
[00:36:54.720 --> 00:36:55.440] For what?
[00:36:55.440 --> 00:36:56.080] For what?
[00:36:57.360 --> 00:37:39.640] So that's a 90 over a 90 percent reduction in the cost to make solar to to to collect solar energy that is huge it's now the cheapest form of energy yeah without a doubt uh durability and lifespan 2004 the expected lifespan of solar panels was around 20 to 25 years uh there is definitely performance uh degrading happening approximately one percent uh degradation per year uh 2024 anybody have an idea of how long they'll let they last now a thousand episodes this one was disappointing so it was 20 to 25 in 2004 and now it's 25 to 30.
[00:37:39.800 --> 00:38:42.080] that's a big difference though i understand it's disappointing but that's that's a different nut to crack you know the slowing down the degradation but when you're talking about you know you talked about the price per per watt but now you've got to amortize that over the life tan lifetime of the solar panel right so you could look at it a number of different ways how long until the panel has paid for itself in the electricity that has that it has produced and then how long do you basically get free energy at that point tacking on an extra five years of free energy at the end is huge in terms of the economic benefits you know the return on investment of it so that it seems like a little bit but actually the economics of that are actually pretty big so the technology back then um monocrystalline and polycrystalline uh silicon panels right so you know in essence what happens when the sunlight hits the panels the the material that is in the panel literally turns the sunlight into voltage it's a it's incredible and we're very lucky that you know there's things out there.
[00:38:42.480 --> 00:38:44.480] Photoelectric effect discovered by Huge?
[00:38:44.680 --> 00:38:46.160] That guy, yeah, that guy did it.
[00:38:46.160 --> 00:38:46.640] Yeah.
[00:38:46.960 --> 00:38:48.240] It was awesome that he did it, too.
[00:38:48.240 --> 00:38:48.640] I really appreciate it.
[00:38:48.800 --> 00:38:49.120] Einstein.
[00:38:49.280 --> 00:38:50.160] He was Einstein.
[00:38:50.400 --> 00:38:50.800] Didn't he win?
[00:38:50.880 --> 00:38:52.000] Like I said, yeah, it was Einstein.
[00:38:52.240 --> 00:38:53.200] He won an award for that.
[00:38:53.760 --> 00:38:55.600] And he figured that out over a lunch.
[00:38:55.920 --> 00:38:56.720] It took him like three hours.
[00:38:56.720 --> 00:38:57.680] He's like, oh, yeah, I got it.
[00:38:57.680 --> 00:39:00.880] Yeah, we're going to convert the sun into energy and we're going to kill the world with nukes.
[00:39:00.880 --> 00:39:02.240] That's what we're going to do.
[00:39:02.240 --> 00:39:02.800] All right.
[00:39:02.800 --> 00:39:07.040] So, one-page paper, one of them is PhD and Nobel Prize.
[00:39:07.040 --> 00:39:07.760] Yep, yep.
[00:39:07.760 --> 00:39:09.280] Nothing for relativity, though.
[00:39:09.280 --> 00:39:09.840] Right.
[00:39:09.840 --> 00:39:17.520] So we are using the same technology today, but, and it gets a little technical, and I'm not going to even, like, no reason to really go into the details here.
[00:39:17.520 --> 00:39:22.640] Bottom line is, we've just been improving the monocrystalline and polycrystalline.
[00:39:22.640 --> 00:39:25.920] We're making it way more efficient than it was.
[00:39:26.240 --> 00:39:28.560] And they think that it's interesting.
[00:39:28.560 --> 00:39:30.640] You think about what's the future going to be.
[00:39:30.640 --> 00:39:40.160] And throughout the years of covering solar panels, because I'm a huge fan of it, is they keep saying, oh, it's going to stop at this, and then it creeps up a little bit.
[00:39:40.160 --> 00:39:42.240] Oh, it's going to stop at this, and then it creeps up a little bit.
[00:39:42.240 --> 00:39:46.560] But I do think that the 30% thing is going to stick around for quite a while.
[00:39:46.560 --> 00:39:48.080] So, yes and no.
[00:39:48.080 --> 00:39:55.280] The 29% is the theoretical, like in laws of physics, maximum for silicon-rigid solar panels.
[00:39:55.280 --> 00:39:56.880] But we're not stopping with silicon, right?
[00:39:56.880 --> 00:40:02.000] So we're developing perovskite, which I think the theoretical limit is in the upper 40s.
[00:40:02.000 --> 00:40:10.960] And then we're also doing the organic solar panels, which are just getting to like the 18% efficiency now, but they're really cheap and they're flexible.
[00:40:11.360 --> 00:40:17.840] And so they're basically, they may have their renaissance very, very soon.
[00:40:17.840 --> 00:40:20.720] But now they're also doing other things, right?
[00:40:20.720 --> 00:40:23.040] So they're layering the solar panels.
[00:40:23.040 --> 00:40:28.160] The idea is to trap those photons and you don't let them go until they turn into an electron, right?
[00:40:28.160 --> 00:40:29.640] So they're figuring out how to do that.
[00:40:29.880 --> 00:40:32.680] And there's no reason why we can't get efficiencies in the 50s.
[00:40:32.680 --> 00:40:33.160] That would be amazing.
[00:40:29.520 --> 00:40:36.280] Using some combination of layered perovskite and silicon.
[00:40:36.840 --> 00:40:37.640] That could be 50 years away.
[00:40:38.680 --> 00:40:39.400] No, no, no.
[00:40:40.680 --> 00:40:45.480] I think we'll probably be in the upper 20s by the end of the decade.
[00:40:45.480 --> 00:40:46.840] We'll be in the 30s.
[00:40:47.080 --> 00:40:49.640] I think it's almost like, interestingly, might track the year.
[00:40:49.640 --> 00:40:55.240] We'll be in the 30% efficiencies in the 30s, maybe get into the 40s and the 40s.
[00:40:55.640 --> 00:40:57.560] And then who knows where it's going to go from there?
[00:40:57.560 --> 00:41:07.640] But I think if we're extrapolating from laboratory findings to companies cranking out solar panels with those properties, there's like a five to ten year delay there.
[00:41:07.640 --> 00:41:10.040] And so we can extrapolate out that far.
[00:41:10.040 --> 00:41:17.000] But we already have like the proof of concept technology to get into at least the mid-30s or close to 40.
[00:41:17.160 --> 00:41:21.240] You're putting me into an existential crisis talking about these years.
[00:41:21.240 --> 00:41:23.800] The 20s and the 30s and the 40s.
[00:41:24.280 --> 00:41:25.880] Don't do that to me.
[00:41:26.440 --> 00:41:27.080] That's going to be awesome.
[00:41:27.320 --> 00:41:29.000] I don't like, say 2030.
[00:41:29.000 --> 00:41:30.200] Say 2040.
[00:41:31.560 --> 00:41:33.240] A few more things I got to get to real quick.
[00:41:33.240 --> 00:41:37.560] So energy production, 2004, 150 to 200 watts.
[00:41:37.560 --> 00:41:41.000] 2024, 350 to 450 watts.
[00:41:41.960 --> 00:41:42.680] Is that per panel?
[00:41:43.240 --> 00:41:44.200] I believe so, yeah.
[00:41:44.200 --> 00:41:46.760] Installation and integration.
[00:41:47.080 --> 00:41:50.520] Back in 2004, the infrastructure wasn't there.
[00:41:50.520 --> 00:41:51.800] Hooking it up to the grid.
[00:41:51.800 --> 00:41:53.320] What do you do with the electricity?
[00:41:53.320 --> 00:41:54.840] No batteries that can handle it.
[00:41:55.720 --> 00:41:57.560] All the deficiencies that we had back then.
[00:41:57.560 --> 00:41:59.640] And look at where we are today.
[00:41:59.640 --> 00:42:01.720] Anybody can get solar panels.
[00:42:01.720 --> 00:42:07.480] They're really expensive, but there's companies out there that will rent them to you essentially and give you lower cost and all that stuff.
[00:42:07.840 --> 00:42:14.200] Or they don't, you know, so you could lease them, but you could also, like, for what I did, because I have solar panels on my house.
[00:42:14.440 --> 00:42:15.760] No money down.
[00:42:14.840 --> 00:42:17.120] They just use my roof.
[00:42:17.280 --> 00:42:23.440] They put up the solar panels and I buy electricity from them at 20% cheaper than what I would otherwise be spending.
[00:42:23.440 --> 00:42:24.080] That's it.
[00:42:24.400 --> 00:42:25.600] So no money down.
[00:42:25.600 --> 00:42:34.160] But it is very easy to integrate solar panels into your house and the grid and your, you know, and all those technologies are nice right now.
[00:42:34.160 --> 00:42:34.560] Nice.
[00:42:34.560 --> 00:42:35.440] That's stupid work.
[00:42:35.440 --> 00:42:37.840] But they're in place and they work, which is fantastic.
[00:42:37.840 --> 00:42:38.560] Energy storage.
[00:42:38.560 --> 00:42:44.480] So in 2004, we had very rudimentary and expensive solar installations.
[00:42:44.480 --> 00:42:45.600] They didn't work that well.
[00:42:45.760 --> 00:42:47.280] They just didn't, they weren't there.
[00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:53.200] They were using lead-acid batteries, limited lifespan, limited capacities, just not good.
[00:42:53.200 --> 00:42:54.480] Today, we're really doing well.
[00:42:54.480 --> 00:42:59.440] Lithium-ion battery storage, you know, Tesla's power wall, LGs, chem batteries.
[00:42:59.760 --> 00:43:04.320] These systems are massively more efficient, have very long lifespans.
[00:43:04.320 --> 00:43:11.120] They allow the solar energy to be stored, you know, during, you know, you could use the solar energy at any time in those batteries.
[00:43:11.120 --> 00:43:15.360] You could store them for longer periods of time when you need them.
[00:43:15.680 --> 00:43:24.160] So this has significantly enhanced the reliability and also the versatility of solar panels because the batteries are the yin-yang with solar panels.
[00:43:24.160 --> 00:43:28.320] And, you know, like we've said this many times on the show, we need grid storage.
[00:43:28.320 --> 00:43:29.440] You know, it's great.
[00:43:29.440 --> 00:43:40.800] All these people are getting solar panels and everything, and they have these little batteries in their houses, but we do need some really big, significant grid storage, you know, battery centers that are going to really help load balance and all that stuff.
[00:43:40.800 --> 00:43:46.160] That's where big money is going to come in, and it's going to take a lot of time to do that.
[00:43:46.160 --> 00:43:47.360] The environmental impact.
[00:43:47.360 --> 00:44:02.360] So, the environmental impacts of producing solar panels was a big concern back in 2004, particularly with these energy-intensive processes that they were using back then to manufacture the silicon, and they're using lots of hazardous chemicals and all that stuff.
[00:43:59.840 --> 00:44:06.200] So, today we have lots of advances in manufacturing techniques.
[00:44:06.440 --> 00:44:13.880] We've dramatically reduced the energy it takes and the the resources that it takes in order to produce the solar panels.
[00:44:13.880 --> 00:44:17.400] And the industry has made a lot of strides in recycling old panels and everything.
[00:44:17.560 --> 00:44:21.320] We're doing all the things that they predicted that we would be doing, but they are actually happening.
[00:44:21.640 --> 00:44:29.480] Yeah, another way to look at that, so like I talked about the time for the money investment to get paid back, there's also a carbon payback time, right?
[00:44:29.480 --> 00:44:36.040] How long do you have to use a panel before you now have saved as much carbon as it took to make the panel in the first place?
[00:44:36.440 --> 00:44:38.200] And that is getting shorter and shorter.
[00:44:38.200 --> 00:44:40.120] That's only a couple of years now, too.
[00:44:40.120 --> 00:44:43.560] So, they're very environmentally efficient, which is great.
[00:44:43.560 --> 00:44:50.040] So, the market adoption in 2004, this was solar panels were a complete niche market.
[00:44:50.040 --> 00:44:51.320] Like, nobody was doing it.
[00:44:51.320 --> 00:44:52.680] You know, it was really weird.
[00:44:52.680 --> 00:44:56.760] People were like, you know, seeing solar panels was an odd thing for people.
[00:44:56.760 --> 00:45:00.280] People wouldn't had no interest in having them integrated into their homes.
[00:45:00.280 --> 00:45:05.640] You know, it was like a real, you know, it was a thing that people looked at and it was like, wow, what the hell are they doing?
[00:45:05.640 --> 00:45:09.160] Today, it's you know, it's mainstream, completely mainstream.
[00:45:09.160 --> 00:45:14.040] We have widespread adoption all over the world, residential, commercial.
[00:45:14.040 --> 00:45:17.000] We have utility-scale markets globally.
[00:45:17.240 --> 00:45:19.960] Solar power is a critical component to our energy today.
[00:45:20.440 --> 00:45:22.680] It's completely cooked into everything.
[00:45:23.160 --> 00:45:25.880] We rely on it now, and that's fantastic.
[00:45:25.880 --> 00:45:28.920] And the last thing I'll just quickly talk about is policy and incentives.
[00:45:28.920 --> 00:45:31.960] And the short version here, it's the same story as all the other ones.
[00:45:31.960 --> 00:45:36.040] Back then, governments were barely trickling funds into it and everything.
[00:45:36.040 --> 00:45:48.320] And today, governments can't get out of their way fast enough to figure out ways to use solar, decrease costs, and help companies obtain higher efficiencies by funding them to do the research and everything.
[00:45:48.560 --> 00:45:53.440] So this is a massive, massive success in the last 20 years.
[00:45:53.440 --> 00:45:56.480] It's one of the technologies that has really changed the most since we've industrialized.
[00:45:56.720 --> 00:46:01.360] Steve, what was the thing that made you decide to finally go with solar panels on your roof?
[00:46:01.360 --> 00:46:04.880] Was it, I mean, you explained that it's a pretty good deal, but was it like a commercial you saw?
[00:46:04.880 --> 00:46:08.800] Was it like you had wanted it all along, and then finally the pricing incentive was right?
[00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:13.120] So it was finding the right company that did it the way I wanted to do it.
[00:46:13.440 --> 00:46:16.800] So you had a concept in your mind of what you wanted to spend or not spend.
[00:46:16.800 --> 00:46:23.200] Yeah, plus it was also just like once I decided, this is something I want to do, I had to research it, and it took a long time.
[00:46:23.440 --> 00:46:27.520] And the big piece was the regulations, which is state by state, right?
[00:46:27.520 --> 00:46:30.960] Because if you have bad regulations in your estate, you can get screwed.
[00:46:30.960 --> 00:46:35.280] Because you can end up buying electricity that you don't use, right?
[00:46:35.280 --> 00:46:38.480] And then if you don't get full credit for it, right?
[00:46:38.480 --> 00:46:45.200] So in other words, like the company says you buy, well, you will put the solar panels on your roof, you buy all the electricity that they make.
[00:46:45.440 --> 00:46:46.720] If you use it, you use it.
[00:46:46.720 --> 00:46:50.160] If you don't, it goes to the grid, and you get credit for it from the electricity company.
[00:46:50.160 --> 00:46:56.480] But the electricity company could say, we're only going to give you half of what it's actually worth.
[00:46:56.480 --> 00:47:07.440] Or they'll say, and they're trying to pass laws, like in Florida, where the electricity company has to only pay you the wholesale cost of the electricity, not the retail cost.
[00:47:07.440 --> 00:47:12.480] So you're buying retail from them, and they're buying wholesale from you.
[00:47:12.480 --> 00:47:14.160] But they're not really giving you money.
[00:47:14.160 --> 00:47:18.080] They're just giving you credits for electricity that you're going to be buying from them later.
[00:47:18.080 --> 00:47:18.960] So it's a racket.
[00:47:19.000 --> 00:47:20.800] You know, they're just trying to protect their profits.
[00:47:21.000 --> 00:47:28.480] So, but like in Connecticut, where I live, we have grade A good regulations where they have to give me 100% credit for the electricity that they get.
[00:47:28.480 --> 00:47:31.320] So that means it's cost-effective for me, right?
[00:47:31.320 --> 00:47:34.280] But if you live in a bad state with bad regulation, you can get screwed.
[00:47:29.920 --> 00:47:37.400] So you gotta know that law before you do the investment.
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[00:50:43.280 --> 00:50:48.480] Well, everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our sponsors this week, Rocket Money.
[00:50:48.480 --> 00:50:53.840] Steve, can you name every single subscription on your credit cards that you have right now?
[00:50:54.000 --> 00:50:55.120] That's a good question.
[00:50:55.360 --> 00:50:57.040] The answer is probably no.
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[00:52:05.400 --> 00:52:08.120] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.
[00:52:08.440 --> 00:52:09.720] Let's move on.
[00:52:09.720 --> 00:52:12.040] Bob, this is another tech.
[00:52:12.120 --> 00:52:15.640] This is both a technology and a pseudoscience one wrapped into one.
[00:52:15.640 --> 00:52:19.000] Tell us about the history of fusion.
[00:52:19.000 --> 00:52:21.000] Cold fusion and hot fusion.
[00:52:21.000 --> 00:52:23.400] That's what I've been tasked to cover.
[00:52:23.400 --> 00:52:26.360] It's an interesting journey for both of these technologies.
[00:52:26.520 --> 00:52:27.800] I'll start with Cold Fusion.
[00:52:28.200 --> 00:52:30.520] I call it the Cold Fusion hubbub of 89.
[00:52:30.840 --> 00:52:31.800] Who remembers that?
[00:52:31.800 --> 00:52:33.080] Who remembers that?
[00:52:33.400 --> 00:52:34.600] All the old people raised their hands.
[00:52:36.120 --> 00:52:38.760] Can we do the clap instead of the visual thing for the podcast?
[00:52:38.760 --> 00:52:39.240] Okay, here we go.
[00:52:39.240 --> 00:52:39.800] Who remembers that?
[00:52:39.800 --> 00:52:40.120] Ready?
[00:52:40.120 --> 00:52:40.760] Yeah.
[00:52:41.040 --> 00:52:41.520] There we go.
[00:52:41.520 --> 00:52:41.720] Wow.
[00:52:42.840 --> 00:52:43.720] Who doesn't remember that?
[00:52:43.720 --> 00:52:44.080] Here we go.
[00:52:45.520 --> 00:52:46.080] Same amount of time.
[00:52:46.240 --> 00:52:46.720] About half.
[00:52:43.960 --> 00:52:47.600] About half.
[00:52:48.240 --> 00:52:52.720] So, cold fusion started in a lot of ways in the 1920s.
[00:52:52.720 --> 00:52:57.200] A lot of scientists, or at least what we saw Fleischmann and Pons do.
[00:52:57.200 --> 00:53:06.800] In the 1920s, scientists discovered that palladium, a heavy metal, palladium, was able to absorb a lot of hydrogen, an amazing amount of hydrogen.
[00:53:06.800 --> 00:53:13.760] And they were thinking, maybe if you get all this hydrogen in one place, something special could happen that could cause fusion.
[00:53:13.760 --> 00:53:20.400] Fast forward to the 1980s, electrochemist Martin Fleischmann rediscovered, like rediscovered this discovery.
[00:53:20.400 --> 00:53:26.400] And he brought in his buddy Stanley Pons, another electrochemist, and they said, let's see what we can do with this.
[00:53:26.800 --> 00:53:34.400] Can we create an experiment to take advantage of this palladium that can suck in hydrogen, deuterium, in an amazing way?
[00:53:34.640 --> 00:53:36.640] So they created their palladium experiment.
[00:53:36.640 --> 00:53:39.280] And I really took a deep dive into this experiment.
[00:53:39.520 --> 00:53:40.640] What was this really all about?
[00:53:40.640 --> 00:53:43.680] I never really dug really deep into it.
[00:53:43.680 --> 00:53:53.040] So palladium is special because it's got this unusual crystalline structure that is able to absorb hydrogen into it, 900 times its own volume.
[00:53:53.040 --> 00:53:56.080] It's really an amazing feat, if you think about it.
[00:53:56.160 --> 00:53:58.240] Something about the crystalline structure.
[00:53:58.480 --> 00:54:02.320] And also, the electrons themselves are very, very accommodating.
[00:54:02.560 --> 00:54:08.400] They actually interface with the hydrogen and shepherd them into the crystalline structure.
[00:54:08.400 --> 00:54:24.320] They were thinking that perhaps when all of this hydrogen gets in there, that there's some, that it could be more reactive, that it could be more organized in such a way that it can create some sort of low-temperature fusion going on here.
[00:54:24.320 --> 00:54:26.240] This is called catalytic fusion.
[00:54:26.240 --> 00:54:27.680] And this is a world-changing idea.
[00:54:27.680 --> 00:54:28.560] Think about it.
[00:54:28.560 --> 00:54:36.520] Labs across the world potentially being able to create fusion for very little money, because this is a very inexpensive laboratory setup.
[00:54:36.840 --> 00:54:39.480] This would be an amazing scenario.
[00:54:39.480 --> 00:54:41.800] Low temperature, low-pressure fusion.
[00:54:41.800 --> 00:54:45.480] That's just like, that's a holy grail that got everybody excited.
[00:54:45.480 --> 00:54:49.880] Just for a comparison, for fusion to happen in the sun, we're talking 27 million degrees.
[00:54:49.880 --> 00:54:52.760] And it doesn't even matter if it's Fahrenheit or Celsius, right?
[00:54:52.760 --> 00:54:54.760] We're up in the 27 million.
[00:54:54.760 --> 00:54:55.720] That's a lot.
[00:54:55.720 --> 00:54:57.400] So this is a huge difference.
[00:54:57.400 --> 00:55:00.600] Their public debut, March 1989, I remember that day.
[00:55:00.600 --> 00:55:03.400] They had a press conference, they had a scientific paper.
[00:55:03.720 --> 00:55:07.880] They claimed sustained nuclear fusion reaction.
[00:55:07.880 --> 00:55:13.480] Their two major claims, though, was excess heat that apparently chemistry could not explain.
[00:55:13.480 --> 00:55:20.120] And they also claimed that there were nuclear byproducts like neutrons that are hallmarks of a fusion reaction.
[00:55:20.440 --> 00:55:23.080] My memory is we thought that was bullshit from the get-go.
[00:55:23.080 --> 00:55:24.280] Yeah, we really did.
[00:55:24.280 --> 00:55:33.320] And the biggest complaint, the biggest complaint is that how are you going to get using low temperature and low pressure, how are you going to get atoms close enough to fuse?
[00:55:33.320 --> 00:55:34.120] That's the biggest thing.
[00:55:34.520 --> 00:55:37.000] Now, imagine you've got two atoms that you want to fuse together.
[00:55:37.000 --> 00:55:40.600] The electronic clouds, they don't want to do, they don't want to cooperate.
[00:55:40.600 --> 00:55:44.120] You're going to need high pressure and high temperature.
[00:55:44.120 --> 00:55:51.000] But even if you can get past the electron cloud, the protons, they don't, like charges, they don't play well together.
[00:55:51.000 --> 00:55:52.680] So what were they saying at that time?
[00:55:52.680 --> 00:55:56.440] So, but I'll finish with the scientists were like, this is ridiculous.
[00:55:56.440 --> 00:55:58.760] That's why they had such a knee-jerk reaction.
[00:55:58.760 --> 00:56:04.440] So they were saying, Feynman said in his press release, what we have done is to open the door of a new research area.
[00:56:04.440 --> 00:56:11.480] Our indications are that the discovery will be relatively easy to make it into a usable technology generating heat and power.
[00:56:11.880 --> 00:56:13.720] University of Utah had an interesting quote.
[00:56:13.720 --> 00:56:17.040] They were like all in, they were totally all in with this, and I'm sure they really regret it.
[00:56:17.280 --> 00:56:23.040] They said, it's a breakthrough process that has the potential to provide inexhaustible sources of energy.
[00:56:23.040 --> 00:56:25.200] Okay, so but what were the scientists saying?
[00:56:25.200 --> 00:56:27.920] Some of the scientists at the time were saying, Dr.
[00:56:27.920 --> 00:56:34.800] Nathan Lewis in Caltech, he's like, It's a simple chemical reaction that has nothing to do with fusion.
[00:56:34.800 --> 00:56:36.320] Radiochemist Dr.
[00:56:36.320 --> 00:56:39.680] Edmund Storms said, many people see only what they want to see.
[00:56:39.760 --> 00:56:42.160] Very interesting, skeptical point, right there.
[00:56:42.160 --> 00:56:48.080] At some point in the history of any new idea, the problem no longer involves logic, but is psychological.
[00:56:48.080 --> 00:56:55.920] My favorite quote from Ronald Parker, nuclear scientist at MIT, he said, This is scientific schlock, maybe fraud.
[00:56:55.920 --> 00:56:57.760] So that's what he was saying at the time.
[00:56:57.760 --> 00:57:02.320] So, like I said, they were skeptical because this goes against what we know about nuclear physics.
[00:57:02.320 --> 00:57:05.120] And by the way, these guys were electrochemists.
[00:57:05.120 --> 00:57:07.680] They were not nuclear physicists at all.
[00:57:08.080 --> 00:57:15.040] They weren't even looking for neutrons until a nuclear physicist said, guys, you guys kind of need to look for neutrons, right?
[00:57:15.360 --> 00:57:17.760] Only then did they even think of doing it.
[00:57:18.000 --> 00:57:23.760] They really should have, they really should have partnered with somebody who was more of an expert in that specific field.
[00:57:24.160 --> 00:57:27.360] This was interesting, and don't cut this out of the show later on, Steve.
[00:57:28.320 --> 00:57:29.360] This was fascinating.
[00:57:29.360 --> 00:57:36.320] If somebody says cold fusion is impossible, theoretically, there is an interesting way that they could make it happen.
[00:57:36.560 --> 00:57:39.760] They probably won't, but this would work.
[00:57:40.160 --> 00:57:41.120] You've heard of muons.
[00:57:41.280 --> 00:57:45.200] Muons are essentially very heavy electrons.
[00:57:45.200 --> 00:57:51.040] If we were able, and we could do this if we wanted to, we could take hydrogen atoms and replace the electrons with muons.
[00:57:51.040 --> 00:57:57.200] And that means you've got a very lightweight electron over here, but if you had a muon, it would be down here next to the nucleus.
[00:57:57.200 --> 00:57:59.920] So you would basically be shrinking the hydrogen atoms.
[00:58:00.840 --> 00:58:07.960] And because they would be so much closer, you could have spontaneous cold fusion happening if we could set that up properly.
[00:58:07.960 --> 00:58:11.640] The problem is, of course, is that muons are incredibly expensive to create.
[00:58:11.640 --> 00:58:16.040] It would cost more money to create the muons than you would get out of the cold fusion.
[00:58:16.280 --> 00:58:16.920] More energy.
[00:58:16.920 --> 00:58:17.400] More energy.
[00:58:17.480 --> 00:58:17.800] Right.
[00:58:17.800 --> 00:58:18.360] What did I say?
[00:58:18.360 --> 00:58:19.160] You said money.
[00:58:19.160 --> 00:58:19.640] Money.
[00:58:19.640 --> 00:58:20.200] Okay.
[00:58:20.200 --> 00:58:22.440] So that's so fascinating to me.
[00:58:22.680 --> 00:58:27.320] Yeah, so basically it would be a net negative in terms of the energy of that process.
[00:58:27.320 --> 00:58:31.240] Cold fusion would be happening, you know, but it's not going to be producing a net energy.
[00:58:31.480 --> 00:58:33.000] And they would only last for two microseconds.
[00:58:33.000 --> 00:58:34.920] So that's another complication.
[00:58:35.240 --> 00:58:36.360] Another complication.
[00:58:36.600 --> 00:58:40.360] Not a deal killer, but we cannot create enough of them to make that practical.
[00:58:40.360 --> 00:58:41.880] So maybe something for the future.
[00:58:41.880 --> 00:58:42.520] I don't know.
[00:58:42.520 --> 00:58:45.960] Bob just said two microseconds is not a deal killer, just by the way.
[00:58:45.960 --> 00:58:46.120] No.
[00:58:46.360 --> 00:58:47.800] Something lasting two microseconds.
[00:58:47.960 --> 00:58:48.760] Not for physicists, baby.
[00:58:49.800 --> 00:58:50.280] All right.
[00:58:50.280 --> 00:58:55.640] In these scenarios, it's helpful to say, what would we expect to happen if cold fusion were real?
[00:58:55.640 --> 00:58:56.680] What would we expect to happen?
[00:58:56.680 --> 00:58:58.760] And in one word, it's replication.
[00:58:58.760 --> 00:59:02.360] And there was a very interesting episode three years before this, or four years.
[00:59:02.360 --> 00:59:05.160] Do you remember high-temperature superconductivity, Steve?
[00:59:05.160 --> 00:59:06.600] That was another huge story.
[00:59:06.600 --> 00:59:09.560] They came up with a new class of high-temperature superconductors.
[00:59:09.560 --> 00:59:14.760] I mean, not high-high, but it was, you know, within liquid nitrogen, which was a huge, huge increase.
[00:59:14.760 --> 00:59:17.720] So what happened after that major discovery?
[00:59:17.720 --> 00:59:21.800] Hundreds of labs throughout the world were able to replicate.
[00:59:21.800 --> 00:59:26.520] They were able to, they took the recipe, they made the high-temperature superconductor, they made it happen.
[00:59:26.520 --> 00:59:28.120] IBM replicated it.
[00:59:28.200 --> 00:59:29.960] University of Tokyo replicated it.
[00:59:29.960 --> 00:59:32.360] Max Planck Institute in Germany replicated it.
[00:59:32.360 --> 00:59:36.600] And the University of Chicago replicated it back in 1986.
[00:59:36.600 --> 00:59:37.960] Good job.
[00:59:38.600 --> 00:59:41.160] So how did replication go for cold fusion?
[00:59:41.160 --> 00:59:43.480] In one word, it was a shit show.
[00:59:43.480 --> 00:59:45.680] It was horrible.
[00:59:46.240 --> 00:59:47.840] Most labs could not do work.
[00:59:49.200 --> 00:59:50.320] Shit show one word.
[00:59:50.480 --> 00:59:51.200] Okay, one word.
[00:59:44.760 --> 00:59:51.760] Yes.
[00:59:52.000 --> 00:59:52.640] Hyphenated?
[00:59:53.040 --> 00:59:53.440] It's one word.
[00:59:54.560 --> 00:59:55.920] It's a shit show.
[00:59:55.920 --> 00:59:56.640] How much?
[00:59:56.880 --> 01:00:04.560] So most labs could not, they were looking at the recipe, which wasn't a good recipe, by the way, and they couldn't replicate it.
[01:00:04.560 --> 01:00:11.760] Some labs claimed that they were able to replicate it, but they didn't even agree with each other on what you needed to replicate it.
[01:00:11.760 --> 01:00:13.920] And then some of them retracted their replication.
[01:00:13.920 --> 01:00:15.520] It was really, really horrible.
[01:00:15.520 --> 01:00:21.520] Then when you looked a layer deeper, they looked at the neutron equipment that they were using, and it was faulty.
[01:00:21.520 --> 01:00:27.360] So you couldn't even trust their neutron data that they were getting, which was, that they were getting, which still was kind of pathetic.
[01:00:27.520 --> 01:00:30.400] The number of neutrons they were getting were not what you would expect.
[01:00:31.200 --> 01:00:38.720] The famous excess heat measurement turns out that that probably wasn't even a thing because they just estimated.
[01:00:38.720 --> 01:00:42.560] They looked at their experiment and they estimated what the heat was.
[01:00:42.560 --> 01:00:44.960] And they weren't even necessarily right about that.
[01:00:44.960 --> 01:00:47.600] So they seemed to be wrong about so much.
[01:00:47.600 --> 01:00:50.240] But for me, the coup de grace, is that how you pronounce it, Steve?
[01:00:50.240 --> 01:00:50.800] Coup de grace.
[01:00:50.880 --> 01:00:51.520] Coup de grease.
[01:00:51.680 --> 01:00:56.000] Was for five, because everyone, all the scientists back then were saying, we need to replicate this.
[01:00:56.000 --> 01:00:57.520] Your instructions really suck.
[01:00:57.520 --> 01:00:58.960] You need to give us good instructions.
[01:00:58.960 --> 01:01:00.000] And they refused to do it.
[01:01:00.000 --> 01:01:00.640] Why?
[01:01:00.640 --> 01:01:02.720] Because they wanted to patent this process.
[01:01:02.720 --> 01:01:06.000] So they didn't want to communicate too much information to the other scientists.
[01:01:06.000 --> 01:01:07.280] And that, of course, is horrible.
[01:01:07.360 --> 01:01:08.960] That's not how you do science.
[01:01:08.960 --> 01:01:15.120] So they allowed somebody to come in to do five weeks of testing on Fleischman and Pond's own equipment.
[01:01:15.600 --> 01:01:16.640] I don't know why they let him in.
[01:01:16.640 --> 01:01:17.440] They let him in.
[01:01:17.440 --> 01:01:19.200] He worked at it for five weeks.
[01:01:19.280 --> 01:01:23.200] Could not replicate their results with their own equipment.
[01:01:23.200 --> 01:01:26.960] To me, that was just like the death blow right there.
[01:01:26.960 --> 01:01:35.320] And so soon after that, 19, let's see, 1990, the next year, American Physical Society said that the claims are unsubstantiated.
[01:01:29.840 --> 01:01:37.080] And that was a huge killer for it.
[01:01:37.400 --> 01:01:40.440] 1994, the U.S.
[01:01:40.440 --> 01:01:43.000] Department of Energy had similar results.
[01:01:43.000 --> 01:01:48.120] They said that there is no evidence supporting their claims of excess heat production.
[01:01:48.200 --> 01:01:53.160] 2004, National Academy of Sciences looked at it again, again and again and again.
[01:01:53.400 --> 01:01:54.440] There was nothing here.
[01:01:54.440 --> 01:01:55.800] There was really nothing here.
[01:01:55.800 --> 01:01:57.320] And then, okay, this was interesting.
[01:01:57.320 --> 01:02:03.560] 2007, an Italian researcher, Andrea Rossi, claims to have developed a working cold fusion device.
[01:02:03.560 --> 01:02:06.600] The energy catalyzer, the ECAT.
[01:02:07.000 --> 01:02:10.280] Have you heard about that since 2007?
[01:02:10.280 --> 01:02:11.640] No, nobody's heard of that, right?
[01:02:11.640 --> 01:02:13.640] Because it was baloney.
[01:02:14.040 --> 01:02:15.880] And that's how it's been since then.
[01:02:15.880 --> 01:02:23.800] Up until this day, you've got it's still being researched, and you won't see cold fusion, though, because those words will not get you anywhere.
[01:02:23.800 --> 01:02:28.440] So they call it L-E-N-R, low-energy nuclear reactions.
[01:02:28.440 --> 01:02:33.400] That's a euphemism that they use for it because cold fusion is death.
[01:02:33.400 --> 01:02:37.720] Google, Google spent a lot of money trying to replicate it in 2019.
[01:02:38.200 --> 01:02:40.200] Why is Google looking at this in 2019?
[01:02:40.200 --> 01:02:40.840] They failed.
[01:02:40.840 --> 01:02:42.040] They failed to find it.
[01:02:42.040 --> 01:02:47.000] And there's still millions of dollars being spent on this trying to find this holy grail.
[01:02:47.720 --> 01:02:49.720] I think it's the allure of the payoff.
[01:02:49.720 --> 01:02:50.600] Absolutely, absolutely.
[01:02:51.240 --> 01:03:05.240] And just as a quick aside, because I had to listen to or read, I read an article a few other, I listened to it or read it, but it was about the psychology of venture capitalists, which is to invest in a lot of crap, hoping that one thing hits.
[01:03:05.240 --> 01:03:13.720] And the thing is, the payoff could be so high that orders of magnitude more than cover all the losses.
[01:03:14.040 --> 01:03:20.720] So you could see a lot of VC investing in this as just one of many lottery tickets.
[01:03:20.880 --> 01:03:21.360] You know what I mean?
[01:03:21.360 --> 01:03:23.280] Like, if it hits, I want to be part of it, right?
[01:03:23.280 --> 01:03:24.000] I want to miss out on that.
[01:03:24.880 --> 01:03:33.600] But there's a big difference between investing in a bunch of lottery tickets knowing that someone eventually is going to get the powerball and investing a lot of lottery tickets when you know that it's not possible for them.
[01:03:33.600 --> 01:03:33.920] It's not possible.
[01:03:34.080 --> 01:03:35.040] Yeah, you're chasing a lot of tickets.
[01:03:36.400 --> 01:03:37.200] Because it's pseudoscience.
[01:03:37.280 --> 01:03:37.600] You're right.
[01:03:37.680 --> 01:03:39.920] If you want a low probability, it's pseudoscience.
[01:03:41.120 --> 01:03:44.000] These are companies that have many scientists working at them.
[01:03:44.400 --> 01:03:45.680] Google should be strange.
[01:03:46.720 --> 01:03:53.680] If I bought a lotta ticket and it said the laws of physics are against you winning lotto, I would not be buying any lotto tickets.
[01:03:54.080 --> 01:03:57.120] It's amazing to me that people will throw millions at this.
[01:03:57.120 --> 01:04:01.680] You know, unless it's muon-catalyzed fusion, don't go anywhere near cold fusion.
[01:04:01.680 --> 01:04:03.200] All right, hot fusion.
[01:04:03.200 --> 01:04:04.240] Hot fusion.
[01:04:04.240 --> 01:04:08.800] This has been, this was a, we've lived through a lot of hot fusion.
[01:04:08.800 --> 01:04:16.560] It's been a very frustrating journey, but there actually has been a lot of success, especially lately.
[01:04:16.560 --> 01:04:20.080] And of course, the goal of hot fusion is very tantalizing, right?
[01:04:20.080 --> 01:04:26.960] It's the allure, you understand the allure of this because even though it's so complicated, there's an unlimited, near unlimited fuel supply.
[01:04:26.960 --> 01:04:31.040] The radioactivity is trivial compared to fission.
[01:04:31.040 --> 01:04:35.040] The energy density using fusion is a million times chemical energy.
[01:04:35.040 --> 01:04:36.080] And it's carbon-free.
[01:04:36.080 --> 01:04:37.600] Hello, carbon-free.
[01:04:37.600 --> 01:04:52.160] So the idea, very basically, the idea with hot fusion is that you've got lighter elements that fuse together to create a heavier element with a little bit of extra mass energy left over, and that left over is what we want.
[01:04:52.160 --> 01:04:55.040] We want that leftover and that leftover energy.
[01:04:55.040 --> 01:05:01.080] Kinetic energy is turned to heat, the heat is turned to steam, the steam turns the turbines, then you get electricity from that.
[01:05:01.400 --> 01:05:02.760] That's what we want to do with it.
[01:04:59.840 --> 01:05:03.640] That's the goal.
[01:05:03.960 --> 01:05:12.280] The idea that hot fusion was happening in the sun and what was happening was 1930s, Hans Beth, B-E-T-H-E.
[01:05:12.360 --> 01:05:14.120] How do you pronounce B-E-T-H-E?
[01:05:14.200 --> 01:05:15.000] Bethe?
[01:05:15.000 --> 01:05:16.360] I don't know how to pronounce his last name.
[01:05:17.240 --> 01:05:17.720] Beta.
[01:05:19.000 --> 01:05:20.360] That's how you spell his name.
[01:05:20.360 --> 01:05:20.760] Awesome.
[01:05:20.760 --> 01:05:21.560] All right.
[01:05:22.840 --> 01:05:24.680] Bob should just call you a beta.
[01:05:26.680 --> 01:05:32.760] He's the first one to detail, to theorize in detail that nucleosynthesis was happening in the sun.
[01:05:32.760 --> 01:05:34.920] That's where the sun is powering itself.
[01:05:34.920 --> 01:05:38.040] And so this is gravitational confinement fusion.
[01:05:38.040 --> 01:05:40.280] You get a lot of mass, you get a lot of gravity.
[01:05:40.680 --> 01:05:42.680] That's gravitational confinement.
[01:05:42.680 --> 01:05:45.560] 1952, the first hydrogen bomb.
[01:05:45.960 --> 01:05:48.520] That's man-made, but it's uncontrolled fusion.
[01:05:48.520 --> 01:05:51.640] So we're not, that's out of scope for this discussion.
[01:05:51.640 --> 01:05:54.840] 1951, this was surprising to me and Steve.
[01:05:54.840 --> 01:06:02.760] 1951 was the first controlled fusion reaction using a device called the Z-Pinch using a magnetic field.
[01:06:02.760 --> 01:06:10.920] Magnetic confinement fusion, that's the second way to fuse elements, magnetic confinement using a magnetic field.
[01:06:10.920 --> 01:06:13.400] It lasted only a couple of microseconds.
[01:06:13.640 --> 01:06:15.240] It was unstable.
[01:06:16.120 --> 01:06:20.440] Better ideas surfaced, like the Takamak, which I'm sure a lot of people have heard about.
[01:06:20.440 --> 01:06:21.880] That's in 1954.
[01:06:21.880 --> 01:06:34.040] The Takamak design was born using a toroidal or a donut-shaped magnetic field to confine plasma, not allowing the plasma to escape, and where the fusion is happening inside there.
[01:06:34.040 --> 01:06:37.080] And the next major milestone was in the 70s.
[01:06:37.080 --> 01:06:39.800] There's lots of milestones, but this one was big for this discussion.
[01:06:39.800 --> 01:06:45.000] In the 70s, early 70s, inertial confinement fusion design was first proposed.
[01:06:45.200 --> 01:06:55.680] So inertial confinement basically throws a lot of energy onto a fuel pellet that causes massive energy deposition right there that causes shock waves.
[01:06:55.680 --> 01:06:59.200] And the inertia of the shock waves going in, that's what's confining it.
[01:06:59.200 --> 01:07:03.040] That's why it's called inertial confinement, and you can get fusion inside there.
[01:07:03.040 --> 01:07:07.760] So let me go through some of these quotes, though, some people were saying about fusion, this type of hot fusion.
[01:07:07.760 --> 01:07:16.880] Albert Einstein in the 1930s said, the fusion of nuclei is an interesting theoretical problem, but it's not likely to become a practical energy source in our lifetimes.
[01:07:16.880 --> 01:07:18.400] You can't really disagree with that.
[01:07:18.400 --> 01:07:21.520] But let's go to Stephen Hawking in the 1990s.
[01:07:21.520 --> 01:07:25.920] I have doubts about whether fusion energy will ever become a practical source of power.
[01:07:25.920 --> 01:07:29.360] The challenges are beyond our current technological capabilities.
[01:07:29.520 --> 01:07:32.400] You can't really disagree with that at that time.
[01:07:32.400 --> 01:07:38.480] But the biggest joke that I'm sure everybody has heard about is this quote: that who knows where it first came from.
[01:07:38.480 --> 01:07:43.280] Fusion is 30 years away, we're 50 years away, and always will be.
[01:07:43.600 --> 01:07:44.560] That's the quote.
[01:07:44.560 --> 01:07:45.840] That's the quote everybody's heard.
[01:07:45.840 --> 01:07:50.400] I've been hearing that for decades, and it always kind of pissed me off.
[01:07:50.400 --> 01:07:51.680] But where did that quote come from?
[01:07:51.680 --> 01:08:07.360] It came because if you go through the history, there's been so many stops and starts, so many dead ends, so many failed promises, and pissing people off that the increase in technological sophistication, the end results, weren't happening.
[01:08:07.600 --> 01:08:09.280] So that's why people just get frustrated.
[01:08:09.280 --> 01:08:11.520] Oh, it's always going to be 50 years away.
[01:08:11.520 --> 01:08:16.640] And then the National Ignition Facility had their breakthrough in 2022.
[01:08:17.120 --> 01:08:19.360] This was really amazing.
[01:08:19.360 --> 01:08:22.000] So they used an inertial confinement system.
[01:08:22.000 --> 01:08:29.920] They have 192 very powerful lasers hitting a little nugget of fuel, and they actually experienced ignition for the first time.
[01:08:31.000 --> 01:08:41.880] This was a self-sustaining fusion reaction, and that basically means that they had two mega joules go in to this nugget and three mega joules come out.
[01:08:42.520 --> 01:08:43.480] Where did that come from?
[01:08:43.880 --> 01:08:45.240] That was fusion happening.
[01:08:45.240 --> 01:08:50.440] Now, don't get me started about the fact that what about all the power that they generated outside of that nugget?
[01:08:50.440 --> 01:08:53.000] That was 300 megajoules, so it's not efficient.
[01:08:53.000 --> 01:08:54.360] We know it's not efficient.
[01:08:54.360 --> 01:08:56.920] It's incredibly inefficient, but it happened.
[01:08:56.920 --> 01:09:00.760] We were able to get more energy out than what went into that specific area.
[01:09:00.760 --> 01:09:08.840] Jill Ruby, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, said on that day, Monday, December 5th, 2022 was an important day in science.
[01:09:08.840 --> 01:09:17.640] Reaching ignition in the controlled fusion experiment is an achievement that has come after more than 60 years of global research, development, engineering, and experimentation.
[01:09:17.640 --> 01:09:21.080] Okay, so what's going on with the current Takamaks?
[01:09:21.240 --> 01:09:27.480] I think they have a brighter future than inertial confinement because these are meant to be commercially viable.
[01:09:27.480 --> 01:09:31.800] The inertial confinement is not really designed to be commercially viable.
[01:09:31.800 --> 01:09:33.800] This is an experiment in nuclear physics.
[01:09:33.800 --> 01:09:37.080] They don't want to create a reactor that can then power the world.
[01:09:37.080 --> 01:09:43.480] Scaling that up would not be impossible, but it'd be extremely difficult compared to a Takamak design.
[01:09:44.120 --> 01:09:48.200] You've heard of EDER, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor Project.
[01:09:48.520 --> 01:09:50.680] That's the largest one in existence.
[01:09:50.680 --> 01:09:52.840] 35 countries have been working on it.
[01:09:52.840 --> 01:09:58.040] It looks very promising, but not as promising as it used to.
[01:09:58.040 --> 01:10:00.280] Now they're saying that there's been massive delays.
[01:10:00.280 --> 01:10:04.600] They might not really make any progress until 2039.
[01:10:04.920 --> 01:10:10.200] So I'm afraid that this big one is going to become irrelevant at some point.
[01:10:10.200 --> 01:10:11.880] It's really frustrating.
[01:10:11.880 --> 01:10:15.280] I have a lot more hope in MIT's Spark reactor.
[01:10:15.280 --> 01:10:16.560] They've got a Takamak.
[01:10:14.840 --> 01:10:17.840] That's using the latest tech.
[01:10:18.400 --> 01:10:28.080] That's using the most advanced technology, where the other one, Eater, is basically based on technology that's a lot older than what MIT is doing.
[01:10:28.080 --> 01:10:31.360] So MIT's Takamak can be much, much smaller.
[01:10:31.360 --> 01:10:33.280] It's designed to be commercial.
[01:10:33.600 --> 01:10:34.560] It's simpler.
[01:10:34.560 --> 01:10:35.520] It's cheaper.
[01:10:35.760 --> 01:10:38.800] Their superconducting magnets are amazingly powerful.
[01:10:39.600 --> 01:10:48.080] When they tested their new superconducting magnet, they said that the cost per watt of a fusion reactor dropped by a factor of 40 in one day.
[01:10:48.240 --> 01:10:52.720] If we're going to see a commercial fusion reactor, I think it could be this one.
[01:10:52.720 --> 01:10:54.800] This one seems very, very promising.
[01:10:54.800 --> 01:11:05.360] All right, so the bottom line after all of this is that more researchers are more confident that we are going to have a fusion reactor at some point in the near future.
[01:11:05.840 --> 01:11:09.520] We know, at the very least, we know that controlled fusion works.
[01:11:09.520 --> 01:11:11.040] We experienced ignition.
[01:11:11.440 --> 01:11:20.080] I've seen plans for this inertial confinement design, plans to make it actually a viable reactor in a lot of ways.
[01:11:20.080 --> 01:11:20.880] So what do you think, Bob?
[01:11:20.960 --> 01:11:22.080] Like 30 years?
[01:11:24.800 --> 01:11:34.640] I think that we've reached a point where maybe we might be at 30 years now, but you could say next year, 29 years, and the year after that, 28 years, potentially.
[01:11:35.600 --> 01:11:39.120] But, but, no, I think the writing's on the wall.
[01:11:39.120 --> 01:11:54.640] When you experience ignition, I mean, that's such a major breakthrough that it's, I think we will see a working, a working Tacomac reactor, but, but, the big but there is that it may never be commercially viable.
[01:11:54.640 --> 01:12:04.680] With solar and wind and all these other ways of producing power, I think a nuclear reactor will could probably never be commercially viable.
[01:12:04.760 --> 01:12:10.280] It would be just too expensive, and we'll never see it proliferate on the Earth.
[01:12:10.280 --> 01:12:15.560] I think we will definitely see them in space, in rockets, because they don't care.
[01:12:15.560 --> 01:12:19.720] You don't care if it's super efficient in your rocket.
[01:12:19.720 --> 01:12:25.640] All you know is that a fusion rocket is going to get you to Mars in like four weeks or whatever it is.
[01:12:25.640 --> 01:12:30.760] So, I think we're going to see fusion reactors in space, maybe not on Earth.
[01:12:30.760 --> 01:12:33.800] If they can make it commercially viable, that would be fantastic.
[01:12:33.800 --> 01:12:36.280] But it's looking now that it's just far too complex.
[01:12:36.280 --> 01:12:38.840] But we'll see what MI could do with their simpler design.
[01:12:39.240 --> 01:12:41.240] So, that's my take on fusion.
[01:12:41.880 --> 01:12:52.040] It sounds like you've come around more to my point of view, because Bob and I have been arguing about this for decades, about how long it's going to take to get to a commercial fusion reactor.
[01:12:52.040 --> 01:12:57.240] I think if we do get there, it's going to be the end of this century or longer.
[01:12:57.480 --> 01:13:01.960] Even that, as Bob says, it may be, it'll be much, much longer than that.
[01:13:02.760 --> 01:13:08.200] There may be a point where it's technically possible, but nobody's going to do it because it just would cost way too much money.
[01:13:08.680 --> 01:13:15.160] I think we'll see in the lifetime of many people here, we'll see a full-scale working reactor.
[01:13:15.160 --> 01:13:18.840] But like I said, it's not necessarily going to ever be commercially viable.
[01:13:19.320 --> 01:13:25.400] Producing net energy, like really net energy, not the only if you count the core energy?
[01:13:25.400 --> 01:13:32.360] Because like you said, when we got to ignition, we're still 300 factors away from producing net energy.
[01:13:32.360 --> 01:13:33.840] That's massive efficiency.
[01:13:33.840 --> 01:13:34.360] We need to.
[01:13:34.520 --> 01:13:34.760] It is.
[01:13:35.080 --> 01:13:47.360] That's why, even though you could, even though you could scale up and make the inertial confinement more efficient, I think the Takamax Steve is going to, that's the one, that's the one that's designed to be commercially available.
[01:13:47.360 --> 01:13:50.800] I think we could, but it still might be too complex and too expensive.
[01:13:44.440 --> 01:13:50.880] Okay.
[01:13:51.360 --> 01:13:53.040] Can I tell a quick Cold Fusion story?
[01:13:53.040 --> 01:13:53.200] Yes.
[01:13:53.520 --> 01:13:55.440] So years ago, I played this thing.
[01:13:55.760 --> 01:13:57.040] It was a comedy festival.
[01:13:57.040 --> 01:14:00.160] It was called the Cold Fusion Comedy Festival.
[01:14:00.160 --> 01:14:02.160] And it had nothing to do with Cold Fusion.
[01:14:02.160 --> 01:14:04.000] It's just they called it that for whatever reason.
[01:14:04.000 --> 01:14:04.640] They called it that.
[01:14:04.640 --> 01:14:09.600] And they asked if I wanted to do a couple of my songs, kind of to be a musical interlude between the stand-up comedians.
[01:14:09.680 --> 01:14:10.800] I was like, sure.
[01:14:10.800 --> 01:14:14.400] And I thought, okay, I'm doing the Cold Fusion Comedy Festival.
[01:14:14.400 --> 01:14:16.400] I have to do like a Cold Fusion joke.
[01:14:16.400 --> 01:14:21.280] I have to do one cold fusion joke that no one will get.
[01:14:21.600 --> 01:14:26.080] And I said, I'm going to do a Cold Fusion joke because this is the Cold Fusion Comedy Festival.
[01:14:26.080 --> 01:14:28.000] And none of you are going to get this joke.
[01:14:28.000 --> 01:14:32.000] And it's going to be so great because none of you, it's going to, I'm going to shit the bed.
[01:14:32.000 --> 01:14:32.960] This is going to be great.
[01:14:32.960 --> 01:14:36.160] So I said, so these two realtors are talking to each other, right?
[01:14:36.160 --> 01:14:41.520] And the one realtor says to the other realtor, he says, I sold that house on the lake.
[01:14:41.840 --> 01:14:44.400] And the first realtor was like, you sold the house on the lake?
[01:14:44.400 --> 01:14:46.240] He's like, yeah, I sold the house on the lake.
[01:14:46.240 --> 01:14:52.320] He said, but that house on the lake, the dock was all like, it was just all messed up.
[01:14:52.320 --> 01:14:53.360] Like, who bought that house?
[01:14:53.360 --> 01:14:58.720] And he said, these two guys, Pons and Fleischman, they bought this house with the messed up dock.
[01:14:58.720 --> 01:15:03.040] And the guy said, why would they buy the house on the lake without the messed up dock?
[01:15:03.120 --> 01:15:08.080] And he said, well, everybody knows that Pons and Fleischman don't believe in peer review.
[01:15:12.880 --> 01:15:14.320] It's a good joke, right?
[01:15:17.200 --> 01:15:18.080] So here's what happened.
[01:15:18.080 --> 01:15:19.840] So I'm going to say the punchline.
[01:15:19.840 --> 01:15:25.280] And then just from just from the back, you sir right there with that sort of green t-shirt and the yeah, yeah, you just look down.
[01:15:25.280 --> 01:15:32.520] Just like when I finished, when I finished saying the joke, just you by yourself, just go, yeah, all right, but no one else make a noise.
[01:15:32.520 --> 01:15:33.640] No one else make any noise.
[01:15:29.440 --> 01:15:35.000] No one else say anything.
[01:15:35.080 --> 01:15:37.400] So I'm going to say, this is what happened at the festival.
[01:15:37.640 --> 01:15:39.080] So wait like a second.
[01:15:39.080 --> 01:15:41.160] And this is exactly, yes, the guy in the green shirt right there.
[01:15:41.160 --> 01:15:45.720] So yeah, well, everybody knows Pons and Fleischman don't believe in peer review.
[01:15:45.720 --> 01:15:46.520] Yeah!
[01:15:47.480 --> 01:15:48.680] That's exactly what happened.
[01:15:52.840 --> 01:15:54.680] It was awesome.
[01:15:54.680 --> 01:15:55.960] Oh my God.
[01:15:56.280 --> 01:15:57.800] But you and that guy.
[01:15:57.800 --> 01:15:58.280] Oh, yeah.
[01:15:58.280 --> 01:15:58.840] You were tight.
[01:15:59.160 --> 01:16:00.040] Star Wars shirt.
[01:16:00.040 --> 01:16:01.320] It was fantastic.
[01:16:01.320 --> 01:16:05.880] Karen, are you going to tell us about the last 20 years of medical scams?
[01:16:06.840 --> 01:16:08.120] Yeah, so it's interesting.
[01:16:08.120 --> 01:16:21.400] When we were first talking about the stories that we were going to tell here, we're like, how do we even approach a question like, what has happened over the last 20 years when it comes to medical scams?
[01:16:21.400 --> 01:16:29.240] And the first thing that came to mind was a very recent episode that we did where we were talking about miracle mineral solution.
[01:16:29.240 --> 01:16:31.960] And I was like, oh, we talk about that a lot on the show.
[01:16:31.960 --> 01:16:35.080] MMS, which, of course, is this, it's bleach.
[01:16:35.080 --> 01:16:35.800] I mean, let's be honest.
[01:16:35.800 --> 01:16:43.000] It's bleach, like industrial bleach that has been marketed as a cure for anything from HIV to cancer to autism.
[01:16:43.320 --> 01:16:44.600] And it's really dangerous.
[01:16:44.600 --> 01:16:49.720] And I think that's the reason we see it come up time and time again, is because there are documented deaths from this.
[01:16:50.040 --> 01:16:55.160] It's a very, very dangerous form of alternative medicine.
[01:16:55.160 --> 01:17:02.040] And what I originally was going to do was go through the archive, and I did this for MMS.
[01:17:02.040 --> 01:17:09.160] You know, the first mention, episode 285, that was on December 29th, 2010, very first mention.
[01:17:09.480 --> 01:17:15.440] And then, you know, again in 2014, 2016, 2019, the FDA warned against it.
[01:17:15.440 --> 01:17:20.000] 2021, this peddler in Florida who like ran a church, he was first indicted.
[01:17:20.000 --> 01:17:22.160] 2023, convicted.
[01:17:22.160 --> 01:17:25.040] 2024, another person in New Zealand went to prison.
[01:17:25.040 --> 01:17:31.680] So kind of spanning this entire history, we saw actual change when it comes to MMS.
[01:17:31.680 --> 01:17:36.640] So I was like, okay, I'm going to do this for like all the medical pseudoscience.
[01:17:36.640 --> 01:17:38.080] And then I was like, no, I have a full-time job.
[01:17:38.080 --> 01:17:39.200] I'm not doing that.
[01:17:40.160 --> 01:17:41.280] So I gave up on that.
[01:17:41.280 --> 01:17:43.920] And then I asked ChatGPT for help for some other things.
[01:17:44.080 --> 01:17:49.280] So I wanted to go back and say, okay, what are some of the earliest forms of medical pseudoscience?
[01:17:49.280 --> 01:18:01.920] And way back, like looking back to Hippocrates in the fifth century BCE, we're looking at things like humoral theory and humoral theory, of course, then kind of bloodletting followed from that.
[01:18:01.920 --> 01:18:11.520] And bloodletting persisted all the way up until the 19th century, like long after we knew that this was not a valid form of medical intervention.
[01:18:11.520 --> 01:18:18.000] So oftentimes this is kind of like touted as one of the original medical scams, like the earliest pseudoscience.
[01:18:18.320 --> 01:18:27.520] But snake oil, patent medicines, you know, and even though we don't often, we use the term snake oil all the time on the show, we don't often hear about patent medicine, but we do.
[01:18:27.520 --> 01:18:29.040] It's just been repackaged.
[01:18:29.200 --> 01:18:31.360] And we see that theme time and time again.
[01:18:31.600 --> 01:18:33.680] Was snake oil like literally snake oil?
[01:18:34.240 --> 01:18:41.440] I think they were selling it as if, it was snake oil, but they were selling it as if snake oil had medicinal properties.
[01:18:41.440 --> 01:18:44.240] Yeah, so snake oil was a snake oil.
[01:18:44.560 --> 01:18:47.600] Made from snakes or something they excreted, or like it was what?
[01:18:47.600 --> 01:18:49.680] Yeah, it was some kind of snake extract.
[01:18:49.680 --> 01:18:50.120] Extract.
[01:18:50.080 --> 01:18:51.240] Not venom.
[01:18:51.760 --> 01:19:00.760] But obviously, that was just one of hundreds of treatments, but somehow that became the iconic snake, like on the side of the hole.
[01:19:00.000 --> 01:19:03.640] Oil of snake.
[01:19:03.960 --> 01:19:04.360] Yeah.
[01:19:00.000 --> 01:19:07.160] Phrenology, of course, radium cures.
[01:19:07.320 --> 01:19:13.400] So you start to see these changes that are kind of moving with the zeitgeist, that are moving with new technologies.
[01:19:13.720 --> 01:19:24.200] Different alternative cancer treatments have been popular throughout different eras, like Gerson therapy, you know, these like magic diets that are supposed to cure cancer.
[01:19:24.200 --> 01:19:27.560] And of course, they're the big ones that we come back to time and time again.
[01:19:27.560 --> 01:19:41.000] I wanted to figure out how many references to homeopathy, how many references to chiropractic have been on the show, but I think it like broke all the search engines, so I can't tell you that number.
[01:19:41.000 --> 01:19:41.640] It was a lot.
[01:19:41.640 --> 01:19:42.360] It was too many.
[01:19:42.360 --> 01:19:43.240] It was a lot.
[01:19:43.720 --> 01:19:46.120] Lots of detoxes, diet cleanses.
[01:19:46.440 --> 01:20:09.400] I've been really fascinated by the types of things that are touted at MediSpas, the types of different new treatments that are evolving with the actual evolution of medicine, where sort of key words or interesting new developments are then stolen by charlatans and pushed in ways that are not evidence-based.
[01:20:09.400 --> 01:20:16.760] A really big one that I think, you know, it's hard looking back because I've been on the show for about half of the time that it's been on air.
[01:20:16.760 --> 01:20:32.600] So the whole first half of the show I wasn't present for, but you know, one of these very persistent forms of medical pseudoscience, the anti-vax movement, which we all can kind of like go back, maybe not to the earliest of the, I think as soon as there was a vaccine, there was anti-vax, right?
[01:20:32.600 --> 01:20:42.120] But we know that there was like a big change, right, with Wakefield and with all of the long-debunked claims that Wakefield made about autism.
[01:20:42.120 --> 01:20:57.680] But of course, then COVID came and we saw this massive resurgence yet again, not just with anti-vaccine, but with all of the alternative treatments that were touted, like ivermectin, you know, and like you could just shine a light inside your body.
[01:20:57.680 --> 01:20:58.880] I think that'll work.
[01:21:00.160 --> 01:21:03.040] Chiropractic, like I mentioned, and subluxation theory.
[01:21:03.440 --> 01:21:14.000] Essential oils, we don't even really talk about that on the show that much, but this is like one of the bigger ones: alkaline diets and water, colon cleansing, a lot of the different, and there's categories.
[01:21:14.000 --> 01:21:25.920] It's funny because this is such a beautiful example of one of the things we often talk about on the show, which is constructs and taxonomy and categorizing things and putting things into boxes.
[01:21:25.920 --> 01:21:29.280] Like, how do I even organize medical myths?
[01:21:29.280 --> 01:21:36.320] Because there's like the homunculus-type myths, and then there's the cleansing-type myths, and some of them cross into different categories.
[01:21:36.320 --> 01:21:43.200] And it's a fascinating study when you look at all of the different pseudoscientific treatments that are touted.
[01:21:43.200 --> 01:21:47.200] Even things like psychic surgery, or ear candling, or cryotherapy.
[01:21:47.200 --> 01:21:49.120] That one's gotten popular again lately.
[01:21:49.120 --> 01:21:51.760] Cupping, we talk about cupping every time the Olympics come up.
[01:21:51.760 --> 01:21:54.000] Vaginal steaming, vaginal eggs.
[01:21:54.320 --> 01:21:54.720] What?
[01:21:55.040 --> 01:21:55.360] What?
[01:21:55.680 --> 01:21:56.240] I've never heard of it.
[01:21:56.320 --> 01:21:56.960] You don't remember that?
[01:21:57.200 --> 01:21:57.680] Yes, you have.
[01:21:57.680 --> 01:22:00.000] We've covered it like 10 times on the show.
[01:22:00.480 --> 01:22:01.200] What are they steaming?
[01:22:04.080 --> 01:22:04.800] Why?
[01:22:05.120 --> 01:22:06.880] Is that a serious question?
[01:22:07.200 --> 01:22:08.720] What are they saying it does?
[01:22:08.720 --> 01:22:10.160] The vagina is what they're steaming.
[01:22:10.320 --> 01:22:11.120] But what is it supposed to be?
[01:22:11.280 --> 01:22:19.920] Oh, so I think vaginal steaming is a really beautiful example of the way that the wellness industry really preys on women and how men are completely unaware of it.
[01:22:21.840 --> 01:22:22.880] It's like.
[01:22:27.360 --> 01:22:29.800] It really is pernicious because you're right, Jay.
[01:22:29.600 --> 01:22:36.920] I think that was such a beautiful example because the way that men are preyed on, and that's not to say that there aren't pressures to maintain certain body images.
[01:22:38.120 --> 01:22:41.480] You have your dick pills and that will never go away, I don't think.
[01:22:41.720 --> 01:22:46.360] But the thing is, those are FDA approved and often covered by Medicare.
[01:22:46.840 --> 01:22:51.480] And the purpose of that is about vigor and virility.
[01:22:51.800 --> 01:22:54.280] Whereas on women, it's shame, shame, shame.
[01:22:55.000 --> 01:23:03.720] You're dirty, you smell, you're dangerous, you're sick, you're unbalanced, your pores are too clogged, you're, yeah, exactly.
[01:23:03.720 --> 01:23:10.200] You're not delivering the promise of a clean, virginal, beautiful child.
[01:23:10.440 --> 01:23:11.880] And so it's horrible.
[01:23:11.880 --> 01:23:18.440] And when you actually do start to look into the pseudoscience in MediSpas, you see those trends over and over and over.
[01:23:19.080 --> 01:23:23.480] There's some that, like when I was looking into this, I hadn't heard of, like laser lipo.
[01:23:23.480 --> 01:23:24.920] Have we ever talked about that on the show?
[01:23:24.920 --> 01:23:28.360] Just like, you're skinny now, you know?
[01:23:28.360 --> 01:23:32.120] Or like psychic surgery.
[01:23:32.120 --> 01:23:33.960] These are all the same concept, right?
[01:23:33.960 --> 01:23:35.560] Like, are you calm?
[01:23:35.560 --> 01:23:38.120] Do you feel cured of your mental illness?
[01:23:38.120 --> 01:23:39.880] Magnetic therapy, things like that.
[01:23:39.880 --> 01:23:43.880] And so, but we also talk about things, you know, what is the harm, right?
[01:23:43.880 --> 01:23:49.240] We often talk about the harm, the harm of medical treatments, of pseudoscientific medical treatments.
[01:23:49.240 --> 01:23:52.120] And there's so many different ways to even categorize that.
[01:23:52.120 --> 01:24:00.840] Like, I was struggling when I was working on prompts, even for chat GPT, like the most pernicious, the most dangerous, the most whatever.
[01:24:00.840 --> 01:24:03.480] It's like, but how do you even define that, right?
[01:24:03.480 --> 01:24:09.640] Is it the number of deaths that are directly attributable to this pseudoscience?
[01:24:09.640 --> 01:24:11.640] Is it the number of deaths that happen?
[01:24:11.640 --> 01:24:16.480] Because in taking the pseudoscience, we delayed taking a legitimate treatment.
[01:24:16.480 --> 01:24:22.160] Is it the number of externalized problems, the amount of money that desperate people were spending on these things?
[01:24:22.160 --> 01:24:36.000] Or as we often talk about, the kind of perpetuating of legitimacy of certain industries, even those that we think of as maybe not necessarily being harmful but being more on the neutral side, they still perpetuate.
[01:24:36.000 --> 01:24:44.560] And I think a perfect example, once again, is the beauty industry and the amount of blame and shame that women carry because of this multi-billion dollar industry.
[01:24:44.880 --> 01:24:48.960] But I was thinking, okay, what are some of the ones that are like documented killed people?
[01:24:48.960 --> 01:24:50.560] And I compiled a little list.
[01:24:50.560 --> 01:24:52.880] Chelation therapy for autism.
[01:24:53.200 --> 01:24:58.400] We know that this causes like kidney damage, cardiac arrest, and death, and there have been documented deaths.
[01:24:58.400 --> 01:25:01.680] Gerson therapy, which is this alternative cancer treatment.
[01:25:01.680 --> 01:25:04.800] It's like intense diets and coffee enemas and stuff like that.
[01:25:04.800 --> 01:25:06.480] And people just die, right?
[01:25:06.480 --> 01:25:07.120] They have cancer.
[01:25:07.120 --> 01:25:08.400] They treat it with a coffee enema.
[01:25:09.120 --> 01:25:10.400] You're not going to do well.
[01:25:10.400 --> 01:25:18.480] Colonic hydrotherapy, colon cleansing has led to perforated intestines, death due to those kinds of complications like sepsis.
[01:25:18.480 --> 01:25:21.200] Drinking raw milk, not a good idea.
[01:25:21.200 --> 01:25:22.800] We've talked about that quite a bit.
[01:25:22.800 --> 01:25:24.320] Black salve.
[01:25:24.320 --> 01:25:24.800] Oh, yeah, that's it.
[01:25:25.040 --> 01:25:33.600] Yeah, it's like an old, yeah, it's a corrosive paste that's claimed to draw out cancer from the skin, and it causes tissue necrosis.
[01:25:34.400 --> 01:25:43.840] It's a necrotic paste that causes severe skin damage, disfigurement, infections, and people have died because, of course, they're not treating their cancer.
[01:25:43.840 --> 01:25:45.760] You say disfigurement, but I don't want to gloss over that.
[01:25:46.240 --> 01:25:47.200] You have to look at pictures.
[01:25:47.200 --> 01:25:52.960] If you look at black salve, look at pictures on the internet, and like people's entire, like half their face is eaten away.
[01:25:52.960 --> 01:25:55.360] Like really horrible disfigure.
[01:25:55.520 --> 01:25:56.800] And so that's another prompt.
[01:25:56.800 --> 01:25:58.960] Like, what are the grossest pseudoscientists?
[01:25:59.040 --> 01:25:59.320] Yeah.
[01:25:59.120 --> 01:26:04.200] So vitamin mega dosing, we've seen example after example when we do what's the harm.
[01:26:04.520 --> 01:26:07.560] Homeopathy, of course, in place of conventional medicine.
[01:26:07.560 --> 01:26:08.280] Ozone therapy.
[01:26:08.280 --> 01:26:12.360] And I mean, we could sit here and just talk this whole time just about homeopathy.
[01:26:12.360 --> 01:26:19.080] And I feel like it's great that this is, you're the SGU audience, so I don't have to go into what homeopathy actually is.
[01:26:19.080 --> 01:26:25.160] But I feel like it's groundhog day with people in my life because they're like, oh, it's just natural.
[01:26:25.160 --> 01:26:26.520] It's just, no, but it's an alternative.
[01:26:26.520 --> 01:26:34.920] It's like, do you really read the Wikipedia page, come back to me, and then we'll talk about whether you are embarrassed to have those pills in your medicine cabinet.
[01:26:35.240 --> 01:26:39.560] You know, isn't it strange that there isn't a homeopathy emergency room?
[01:26:39.560 --> 01:26:40.200] Yeah, exactly.
[01:26:40.200 --> 01:26:42.040] Didn't somebody like it?
[01:26:42.120 --> 01:26:42.600] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[01:26:42.680 --> 01:26:44.520] The Michelin Webb effect thing did it.
[01:26:44.520 --> 01:26:44.760] Yeah, yeah.
[01:26:45.800 --> 01:26:46.200] It's good.
[01:26:46.680 --> 01:26:47.720] I didn't just make that up.
[01:26:47.720 --> 01:26:49.480] No, no ideas.
[01:26:49.720 --> 01:26:49.960] All right.
[01:26:50.440 --> 01:27:03.160] Ozone therapy, vampire facials, we recently talked about, and there's a massive outbreak of HIV at this Medi-Spa in New Mexico where they were doing these platelet-rich plasma vampire facials.
[01:27:03.480 --> 01:27:13.640] So what I did decide to do is say, okay, 2005, when the podcast started, 2024, where we are now, what were like the top trends each year?
[01:27:13.640 --> 01:27:15.560] Like what had the public's attention?
[01:27:15.560 --> 01:27:17.800] And I went both with the wellness fads.
[01:27:17.800 --> 01:27:24.040] The wellness fads are interesting because some of them are actually legitimate, or I don't want to say legitimate.
[01:27:24.760 --> 01:27:28.360] Some of them aren't overtly pseudoscience, but some of them are like, what even?
[01:27:28.600 --> 01:27:33.000] And then I also looked at just the most pseudoscientific trends during those years.
[01:27:33.000 --> 01:27:34.520] So I'm going to run through them really quickly.
[01:27:34.520 --> 01:27:35.560] It's fascinating.
[01:27:35.560 --> 01:27:39.560] So 2005, juice cleanses, colon cleanses.
[01:27:39.560 --> 01:27:41.640] 2006, Pilates was hot.
[01:27:41.640 --> 01:27:43.640] Apparently, it was a hot search term, which is great, whatever.
[01:27:43.640 --> 01:27:44.760] Pilates is cool.
[01:27:45.040 --> 01:27:46.800] Magnetic therapy.
[01:27:46.800 --> 01:27:50.240] 2007, superfoods, acai bowls.
[01:27:51.040 --> 01:27:52.160] Ear candling.
[01:27:52.160 --> 01:27:52.480] Really?
[01:27:52.480 --> 01:27:55.920] In 2007, people were like all about the ear candling.
[01:27:56.080 --> 01:27:59.280] 2008, we got yoga, and then we've got homeopathy.
[01:27:59.280 --> 01:28:03.360] 2009, CrossFit and ionized water was all the rage in 2009.
[01:28:03.600 --> 01:28:04.080] These are from what?
[01:28:04.080 --> 01:28:04.480] These are these?
[01:28:04.720 --> 01:28:07.120] These are top-trending searches?
[01:28:07.120 --> 01:28:07.840] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[01:28:07.840 --> 01:28:09.360] Across the internet.
[01:28:09.360 --> 01:28:18.880] The first one is whatever the wellness fad was, and then the second one was like the top-trending pseudoscience or medical scam.
[01:28:18.880 --> 01:28:22.320] Health pseudoscience is one of the number one pieces of information on the internet.
[01:28:22.480 --> 01:28:22.960] It's huge.
[01:28:22.960 --> 01:28:23.600] It's massive.
[01:28:23.600 --> 01:28:26.080] And it's across all social media platforms.
[01:28:26.640 --> 01:28:30.560] Yeah, it's a billion, multi-billion dollar industry.
[01:28:30.800 --> 01:28:35.520] 2009, we got CrossFit was, you know, great in the wellness industry, and then ionized water.
[01:28:35.520 --> 01:28:40.400] 2010, veganism was a big wellness trending topic and anti-vaccine movements.
[01:28:40.400 --> 01:28:42.240] This is interesting, so come back around.
[01:28:42.240 --> 01:28:49.360] 2011, gluten-free diets and the human chorionic gonadotropin drops and injections that were marketed for weight loss.
[01:28:49.360 --> 01:28:50.800] I didn't even, okay.
[01:28:50.800 --> 01:28:55.920] In 2012, meditation and raspberry ketones were all the rage.
[01:28:56.240 --> 01:28:58.080] Miracle fat burner, apparently.
[01:28:58.080 --> 01:29:03.200] 2013, green smoothies and miracle mineral supplement.
[01:29:03.200 --> 01:29:04.960] This is like the top trending.
[01:29:05.200 --> 01:29:06.400] Yeah, bleach.
[01:29:06.400 --> 01:29:07.440] Bleach.
[01:29:07.440 --> 01:29:11.360] 2014, paleo diet and green coffee bean extract.
[01:29:11.360 --> 01:29:13.280] A lot of weight loss miracles on here.
[01:29:13.280 --> 01:29:14.640] Again, that blame and the shame.
[01:29:14.640 --> 01:29:15.040] Yeah.
[01:29:15.280 --> 01:29:17.520] 2015, wearable fitness trackers.
[01:29:17.520 --> 01:29:19.920] That was a big wellness industry thing.
[01:29:19.920 --> 01:29:23.680] And 2015, for pseudoscience, waste trainers.
[01:29:24.000 --> 01:29:25.280] What year is it?
[01:29:25.280 --> 01:29:26.800] You're talking about the 40s before.
[01:29:26.800 --> 01:29:27.680] Which one?
[01:29:28.560 --> 01:29:32.600] Okay, 2016, bulletproof coffee and alkaline diets.
[01:29:29.840 --> 01:29:36.520] 2017, cryotherapy and essential oil cures.
[01:29:36.840 --> 01:29:41.160] 2018, CBD oil and stem cell therapy scams.
[01:29:41.160 --> 01:29:43.960] These were, there were a lot of news articles about those.
[01:29:43.960 --> 01:29:48.120] 2019, intermittent fasting and the blood type diet.
[01:29:48.440 --> 01:29:50.600] People still buy into that.
[01:29:50.600 --> 01:29:52.200] It's astrology.
[01:29:52.760 --> 01:29:55.720] 2020, home workouts and what do you think?
[01:29:55.720 --> 01:29:57.720] COVID-19 miracle cures, of course.
[01:29:57.960 --> 01:29:59.080] Did you say home workouts?
[01:29:59.080 --> 01:29:59.880] Home workouts, yeah.
[01:29:59.880 --> 01:30:01.560] That was like the biggest wellness trend of the...
[01:30:01.640 --> 01:30:02.680] It was lockdown.
[01:30:03.000 --> 01:30:04.200] What's wrong with home workouts?
[01:30:04.200 --> 01:30:04.440] Nothing.
[01:30:04.440 --> 01:30:05.640] I was like, this is the biggest wellness trend.
[01:30:06.520 --> 01:30:06.680] Yeah.
[01:30:07.000 --> 01:30:10.600] So yeah, so with the wellness trends, it's interesting how many of them are pseudoscience.
[01:30:10.680 --> 01:30:13.480] There have been like three so far that were okay, I think.
[01:30:13.800 --> 01:30:14.040] Yeah.
[01:30:14.040 --> 01:30:18.200] Wearable fitness trackers, home workouts, some yoga, some Pilates.
[01:30:18.520 --> 01:30:19.560] A bit of meditation, maybe.
[01:30:20.760 --> 01:30:22.120] Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
[01:30:22.920 --> 01:30:28.360] 2021, immune boosting supplements and anti-5G radiation devices.
[01:30:29.960 --> 01:30:30.600] Yep.
[01:30:30.920 --> 01:30:31.560] 2022.
[01:30:34.200 --> 01:30:35.320] And the chip and the vaccine.
[01:30:35.320 --> 01:30:35.640] I don't know.
[01:30:36.200 --> 01:30:37.160] It's all getting mixed up now.
[01:30:39.320 --> 01:30:43.400] 2022, biggest wellness trend, mental health apps make sense, right?
[01:30:43.400 --> 01:30:45.720] Post-COVID or still COVID.
[01:30:45.720 --> 01:30:47.800] 2022, NAD supplements.
[01:30:47.800 --> 01:30:49.000] I didn't even, okay.
[01:30:49.000 --> 01:30:55.880] 2023, hormone balancing diets and ozone therapy, also deadly.
[01:30:56.440 --> 01:31:07.160] And that brings us to 2024, which is not yet over, but so far, tech-driven wellness, like AI personalized wellness plans, and frequency healing devices.
[01:31:07.640 --> 01:31:08.120] What?
[01:31:08.760 --> 01:31:11.400] So, you know, it's funny, we think about what are the trends.
[01:31:11.400 --> 01:31:13.560] We can see the trends coming and going with the zeitgeist.
[01:31:13.560 --> 01:31:18.720] We can see the trends coming and going with, you know, the pressures that we're under, but this is cyclical.
[01:31:15.000 --> 01:31:22.000] Nothing is new, it's all repacked with a brand new name.
[01:31:22.480 --> 01:31:27.280] And over hundreds of years, like you think this is all a modern phenomenon?
[01:31:27.280 --> 01:31:35.680] You know, one of my favorite examples is a book written 200 years ago about magnet scams, like magnetic devices that are all scams.
[01:31:35.680 --> 01:31:36.560] Saying that they're scams.
[01:31:36.560 --> 01:31:38.720] 200 years ago, saying this is BS.
[01:31:38.960 --> 01:31:55.680] But yeah, but this was like all of the herbal supplements that are popular today, most of them were innovated in the 1900s or earlier, and they were sold as natural, the Native Americans do this, so it must be natural and healthy.
[01:31:55.680 --> 01:31:58.560] Like the same bullshit marketing that we have now.
[01:31:58.880 --> 01:32:18.640] And very often, the interesting thing is, which actually grinds my gears more than almost anything, is that sort of cultural appropriation where there's a claim that something is wisdom coming from, you know, millennia of a people who practice this as part of their cultural rituals.
[01:32:18.640 --> 01:32:22.000] But very often, it's just new and repacked.
[01:32:22.320 --> 01:32:24.160] It's a, oh, white people will buy this.
[01:32:24.160 --> 01:32:26.000] This is the ancient Chinese secret market.
[01:32:26.240 --> 01:32:40.800] Yeah, it's infuriating because it ends up not only harming the person that is being marketed or the group of people that it's being marketed to, it also is harmful for the people who they're claiming are the original people who used it.
[01:32:40.800 --> 01:32:44.880] The fact that every year is like a different trend, too, shows that it's just fashion.
[01:32:45.520 --> 01:32:46.320] It's cyclical fashion.
[01:32:46.480 --> 01:32:51.200] Because if there was a hint of truth, you would have a consistent, it would remain the top search.
[01:32:51.200 --> 01:32:51.440] Yeah.
[01:32:51.440 --> 01:32:51.760] You know?
[01:32:52.000 --> 01:32:53.120] Chemotherapy, right?
[01:32:53.120 --> 01:32:53.760] Like it would be.
[01:32:53.840 --> 01:32:54.400] Or like Viagra.
[01:32:54.640 --> 01:32:55.120] Antibiotics.
[01:32:55.200 --> 01:32:58.240] Like Viagra works, you know, and that's going to constantly be in that.
[01:32:58.240 --> 01:33:01.400] Because it's an actual boner thing that does what it's supposed to do.
[01:33:01.400 --> 01:33:02.200] Like the only one.
[01:33:02.760 --> 01:33:03.400] So I'm told.
[01:32:59.920 --> 01:33:03.480] Yeah.
[01:33:03.720 --> 01:33:11.640] So everyone, we're going to take a quick break from our show to talk about one of our sponsors this week, Planet Wild.
[01:33:11.640 --> 01:33:15.640] Guys, we've talked on the show about how our oceans are polluted with plastics.
[01:33:15.640 --> 01:33:19.880] And I've been watching videos from a Berlin-based organization called Planet Wild.
[01:33:19.880 --> 01:33:23.880] They focus on ecosystem restoration and conservation efforts.
[01:33:23.880 --> 01:33:31.640] So Planet Wild aims to build a global community of individuals who care about the planet and are willing to support various environmental missions.
[01:33:31.640 --> 01:33:35.000] They go into great detail about what they're doing and what needs to be done.
[01:33:35.000 --> 01:33:41.320] You know, their missions include activities like reintroducing endangered species, cleaning up our oceans, restoring natural forests.
[01:33:41.320 --> 01:33:42.440] The list goes on.
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[01:33:49.080 --> 01:33:57.720] And they've even got an app where you can interact with like-minded community members and get notified about all the new projects that are going on.
[01:33:57.720 --> 01:34:05.720] If you want more information, you can go to Planet Wild's homepage or their YouTube channel and you can take a look at their most recent projects.
[01:34:05.720 --> 01:34:10.200] Members are free to give whatever amount, big or small, that feels right to them.
[01:34:10.200 --> 01:34:14.840] And they can count on the fact that every dollar will go to protecting nature.
[01:34:15.160 --> 01:34:20.040] So go to planetwild.com forward slash skeptics and use the code skeptics9.
[01:34:20.040 --> 01:34:22.280] That's skeptics and the number nine.
[01:34:22.280 --> 01:34:27.160] Remember, the first 150 STU listeners that sign up will get their first month free.
[01:34:27.160 --> 01:34:31.240] So go to planetwild.com forward slash skeptics and use the code skeptics9.
[01:34:31.240 --> 01:34:33.000] Make sure you use the number nine.
[01:34:33.320 --> 01:34:35.560] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.
[01:34:35.880 --> 01:34:36.600] All right.
[01:34:36.920 --> 01:34:42.120] Evan, tell us about space aliens and UFOs.
[01:34:42.120 --> 01:34:44.400] That's the reason we're all here, isn't it?
[01:34:45.040 --> 01:34:45.840] UFOs.
[01:34:46.320 --> 01:34:48.160] You don't mind as I talk about this.
[01:34:44.120 --> 01:34:49.680] I'm going to use the term UFO, okay?
[01:34:49.760 --> 01:34:52.080] I know it's UAPs, okay?
[01:34:52.080 --> 01:34:55.200] But I'm just going to keep it simple for this sake.
[01:34:55.200 --> 01:34:56.320] Okay, cut me that slack.
[01:34:56.480 --> 01:34:58.000] Low energy nuclear reactions.
[01:34:58.000 --> 01:34:58.720] Come on.
[01:34:59.680 --> 01:35:01.600] Freaking confusion.
[01:35:01.920 --> 01:35:07.360] A 20-year observation on UFOs by the Skeptics Guide.
[01:35:07.360 --> 01:35:07.760] Yeah.
[01:35:07.760 --> 01:35:09.280] So, 2005, right?
[01:35:09.280 --> 01:35:11.680] That's when it all started for us, right?
[01:35:12.240 --> 01:35:13.440] Not exactly.
[01:35:13.440 --> 01:35:18.080] You know, we've been skeptical activists since 1996, of course.
[01:35:18.720 --> 01:35:21.120] And think about 1996.
[01:35:21.120 --> 01:35:23.680] Carl Sagan was still alive.
[01:35:23.680 --> 01:35:27.120] And the year prior, he'd come out with The Demon Haunted World.
[01:35:27.120 --> 01:35:28.880] That's when it was first published.
[01:35:29.520 --> 01:35:37.120] How much did that book have an impact on everything we did back then as a skeptical organization?
[01:35:37.200 --> 01:35:39.840] It's still having an impact today.
[01:35:39.840 --> 01:35:42.880] Oh my gosh, so inspirational, I can't even go into it.
[01:35:43.200 --> 01:35:50.720] And among the many topics in that book, and he covers a lot of things, but he tells stories about UFOs and extraterrestrials.
[01:35:50.720 --> 01:36:02.160] And he does this not just because it kind of overlaps with his area of expertise, being a planetary scientist or planetary astronomer.
[01:36:02.160 --> 01:36:18.560] He did so because the entire story of the modern UFO phenomenon, it makes for excellent examples about how people can differentiate science from pseudoscience and how people can think more critically and really become good skeptics.
[01:36:18.880 --> 01:36:29.040] And as us, a new, you know, up-and-coming sort of group of enthusiasts, as we were just getting into this, oh my gosh, it was the perfect guide for us at the time.
[01:36:29.040 --> 01:36:35.800] I've found that over the years, because we've covered this a lot, you take on a topic like UFOs, and what is really going on here?
[01:36:35.800 --> 01:36:42.200] Yeah, you can break down the facts and the details of what's being told, what's being reported, right?
[01:36:42.200 --> 01:36:44.280] What did somebody actually see?
[01:36:44.280 --> 01:36:47.080] What was the photographic evidence?
[01:36:48.200 --> 01:36:57.880] But what it really, I think, boils down to is becomes a measure of how the media, in a very broad way, treats the topic of UFOs.
[01:36:57.880 --> 01:37:01.240] And that's kind of what we're all subjected to, everybody.
[01:37:01.640 --> 01:37:16.120] It's been established for a very long time, before 2005, that the body of evidence, okay, scientific evidence, hard evidence, that our planet is being visited by extraterrestrials is zero.
[01:37:16.120 --> 01:37:17.160] Absolutely zero.
[01:37:17.160 --> 01:37:19.240] There is nothing tangible.
[01:37:19.240 --> 01:37:21.800] There is no technology that we've discovered.
[01:37:21.800 --> 01:37:24.040] There's no DNA, right?
[01:37:24.040 --> 01:37:26.840] There is no physical evidence whatsoever.
[01:37:26.840 --> 01:37:51.480] And what you do have instead in this entire phenomenon is an abundance of anecdotes, of stories, of retelling, secondhand, third-hand accounts, arguments from authority of all kinds, accompanied by some other things: blurry photographs, garbled audio recordings, and outright fakes, outright fake movies, both on video and film.
[01:37:51.480 --> 01:37:54.040] That is the body of evidence that they present to you.
[01:37:54.040 --> 01:38:00.200] And for the prior 60 years now, this is dating back now to the 1940s, that's the state of the evidence.
[01:38:00.360 --> 01:38:07.000] And the scientific evidence does not amount to anything, not even a single atom.
[01:38:07.000 --> 01:38:14.400] So, and this is all despite the efforts of great people like Carl Sagan or Philip Klass, if you're familiar with the books that he wrote.
[01:38:14.280 --> 01:38:16.800] I mean, he was really a great UFO debunker.
[01:38:16.960 --> 01:38:25.120] There were organizations, the Committee for Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, not to mention Project Blue Book, the Condon Report.
[01:38:25.120 --> 01:38:33.520] But once the idea of UFOs captured sort of the imaginations of our society in the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, and the media ran with it, that's it.
[01:38:33.520 --> 01:38:37.040] The damage really had been done at that point.
[01:38:37.040 --> 01:38:38.880] Our culture absolutely fell in love.
[01:38:38.880 --> 01:38:43.920] It embraced UFOs, and we fell for it, hook, line, and sinker.
[01:38:43.920 --> 01:38:44.560] Jay?
[01:38:44.560 --> 01:38:45.200] Yo.
[01:38:45.520 --> 01:38:46.320] Yeah, yo, what's up?
[01:38:46.320 --> 01:38:46.880] Where's George?
[01:38:46.960 --> 01:38:47.360] With you?
[01:38:47.360 --> 01:38:48.320] Who benefits?
[01:38:48.320 --> 01:38:48.800] Who?
[01:38:48.800 --> 01:38:49.360] Thank you.
[01:38:49.680 --> 01:38:50.880] Thank you, Jay.
[01:38:53.360 --> 01:38:54.560] What are we talking about, man?
[01:38:54.720 --> 01:38:55.920] Qui bono, baby.
[01:38:56.080 --> 01:38:59.760] I was going to say, George, he was going to make a U2 reference or something, I'm sure.
[01:38:59.760 --> 01:39:04.000] Who benefits from this, from this phenomenon?
[01:39:04.000 --> 01:39:07.120] I think it boils down to, in a sense, the media.
[01:39:07.120 --> 01:39:10.400] And I don't just mean the news media that we have.
[01:39:10.640 --> 01:39:12.160] It's a lot of different things.
[01:39:12.160 --> 01:39:16.640] It's authors of books, it's producers of movies and television shows.
[01:39:16.640 --> 01:39:25.040] It's the art bells of the radio world as well, you know, certainly, which is something I listened to in my youth as well.
[01:39:25.040 --> 01:39:32.160] They seized this opportunity and they tapped into the wells of human gullibility and are absolutely making bank on it.
[01:39:32.160 --> 01:39:34.320] 60 years, that's the state of things.
[01:39:34.320 --> 01:39:37.200] Then we came along, 2005, with our podcast.
[01:39:37.200 --> 01:39:40.320] So we tried to counterpunch all of this.
[01:39:40.320 --> 01:39:47.440] You know, yes, we're the minority voice in all of this, but we really wanted to help people understand what UFOs were all about.
[01:39:47.440 --> 01:39:49.360] We wasted no time getting into it.
[01:39:49.360 --> 01:39:50.480] Episode one.
[01:39:50.800 --> 01:39:52.240] Episode one, UFOs.
[01:39:52.240 --> 01:39:53.040] Here it was.
[01:39:53.040 --> 01:39:57.600] Reverse engineering of extraterrestrial UFO flight patterns.
[01:39:57.600 --> 01:40:01.960] Fast, completely erratic, and unpredictable with gaps in motion.
[01:40:01.960 --> 01:40:09.160] So they were analyzing the apparent patterns of UFO flights, using information to speculate about the physics behind it.
[01:40:09.160 --> 01:40:10.920] How could it really possibly be happening?
[01:40:10.920 --> 01:40:20.040] So, really, right from the get-go, what you have here is that the media does not even ask the question: is this real at all?
[01:40:20.040 --> 01:40:20.840] Not even.
[01:40:20.840 --> 01:40:21.960] It's a supposition.
[01:40:21.960 --> 01:40:39.000] They absolutely take it at face value, it is, and then they can expand in a billion different directions with a billion different storylines based on that, making the assumption, the major stated premise, not even unstated, that UFOs are real.
[01:40:39.320 --> 01:40:43.720] End of story, now we're going to go explore that in all these different directions.
[01:40:43.720 --> 01:40:56.600] So I thought a reasonable take on where we are 20 years from now and how to sort of deal with this was to measure how well the media has adapted to the reporting of UFO stories over the past 20 years.
[01:40:56.600 --> 01:40:58.280] Has it gotten worse?
[01:40:58.280 --> 01:41:01.960] Is anything about it better whatsoever?
[01:41:01.960 --> 01:41:13.320] And knowing what we knew in 2005 and having the 10 years of skeptical activism that we did have prior to that, we already had recognized what this pattern was.
[01:41:13.320 --> 01:41:18.440] But we wanted to see what the shifts basically were and were there going to be any changes.
[01:41:18.440 --> 01:41:21.080] We knew what the trend was, but will it change?
[01:41:21.080 --> 01:41:29.880] Well, technology, in a sense, you know, podcasting coming up, moving from an analog world into a fully digital world, how would this have an impact?
[01:41:29.880 --> 01:41:36.760] I went back and I started to look at all of our episodes in which we talked about UFOs and touched on aliens and so many things.
[01:41:36.760 --> 01:41:38.040] And it was massive.
[01:41:38.040 --> 01:41:41.560] I mean, Kara, kind of, you ran into the same issue when you were.
[01:41:41.640 --> 01:41:42.280] You can cover us all.
[01:41:42.440 --> 01:41:42.760] You can't.
[01:41:43.000 --> 01:41:47.440] I mean, I'd take five hours up here, basically, the entire show, of just talking about just that.
[01:41:47.600 --> 01:41:56.080] Instead, what I did is I went back and I used the media's own devices to help me with my observations, along with a little help from AI.
[01:41:56.080 --> 01:42:06.960] And I was able to hone in on the top UFO-related news items for 2005 and then for 2006 and 2007 and so forth, right up to 2024.
[01:42:06.960 --> 01:42:15.680] I was able to come up with five categories, five general categories in which all of these top UFO-related stories fell into.
[01:42:15.680 --> 01:42:17.120] Here are the brackets.
[01:42:17.120 --> 01:42:25.440] Public sightings, okay, those are the witness accounts and the stories, and they send the reporter out to talk to the person about what they saw.
[01:42:25.440 --> 01:42:38.960] Government-related UFO stories, what are governments around the world doing about it, what kind of panels are they convening, what former people in the government or the military had to say about it.
[01:42:38.960 --> 01:42:56.880] The third category is pop culture, and this is where reporting was centered around the latest television show or the latest movie that came out or some other pop culture reference or other industries of popular culture that have touched on this.
[01:42:57.040 --> 01:43:00.080] Fourth category is UFO proponents.
[01:43:00.080 --> 01:43:09.920] You know, the MUFON organization, among some other celebrities who have also gone along and become pro-UFO enthusiasts and are kind of backing those efforts.
[01:43:09.920 --> 01:43:13.440] And finally, the fifth category, science and skepticism.
[01:43:13.440 --> 01:43:20.240] How many of these news articles took a primarily scientific or skeptical approach to them?
[01:43:20.240 --> 01:43:25.200] And I'm going to break it down for you as percentages, okay, out of 100%.
[01:43:25.200 --> 01:43:28.240] Public sightings was the most common.
[01:43:28.240 --> 01:43:33.640] 40% of the stories over that time, over that 20-year period, had to do with the public sightings.
[01:43:34.440 --> 01:43:39.880] Right on its tail is government-related at 36%.
[01:43:40.200 --> 01:43:42.280] So, right there, that's three-quarters of them.
[01:43:42.280 --> 01:43:46.120] The rest of it breaks down like this: pop culture was 8%.
[01:43:46.120 --> 01:43:53.160] UFO proponents, 12%, and that leaves science and skeptics 4%.
[01:43:53.480 --> 01:43:54.520] 4%.
[01:43:54.520 --> 01:43:55.640] That is about it.
[01:43:55.640 --> 01:44:00.040] Now, how does that have an impact on things and the way we perceive things?
[01:44:00.040 --> 01:44:02.600] Well, unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be too good.
[01:44:02.600 --> 01:44:06.120] I found a couple of different polls that express this.
[01:44:06.120 --> 01:44:17.080] One was a Gallup poll in which they took, say, in 2019, in which they say, they asked people, have these UFO reports been alien?
[01:44:17.160 --> 01:44:19.560] Do you think they are alien spacecraft?
[01:44:19.560 --> 01:44:26.680] Or are they explained by normal human natural phenomenon that can be explained?
[01:44:26.680 --> 01:44:38.680] So the change between 2019 and 2021 was a differential of 10-point swing to the direction that these are aliens and alien spacecraft.
[01:44:38.680 --> 01:44:42.120] So absolutely going in the wrong direction.
[01:44:42.120 --> 01:44:46.280] And I'm sure there are a lot of reasons that we could delve into as to why that is the case.
[01:44:46.280 --> 01:44:49.000] And here's another poll that I came up with that I found.
[01:44:49.000 --> 01:44:52.280] Newsweek and YouGov in 2022 took a poll.
[01:44:53.400 --> 01:44:59.240] Americans who believe UFO sightings offer likely proof of alien life.
[01:44:59.560 --> 01:45:10.360] In 1998, they asked this question, and it was only 20% who believed, absolutely 51% who were like.
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[01:48:15.240 --> 01:48:17.960] No, it's human and it's natural.
[01:48:17.960 --> 01:48:19.800] 29% didn't know.
[01:48:19.800 --> 01:48:25.480] But in 2022, 34% believed that's a 14-point jump.
[01:48:25.480 --> 01:48:29.000] And 32% said, no, it's only natural.
[01:48:29.000 --> 01:48:30.440] And that's a 13% drop.
[01:48:30.440 --> 01:48:32.760] And the rest also just didn't know.
[01:48:33.080 --> 01:48:55.600] So, what I was able to sort of determine is that the media is having an enormous, absolutely continues to have an enormous impact on the UFO culture and an entire phenomenon, and unfortunately, in the direction where more people are moving away from the rational scientific explanations of these things.
[01:48:55.600 --> 01:48:56.960] That's what I came up with.
[01:48:57.280 --> 01:49:01.680] I think a lot of it, in terms of the recent trends, is the whole Pentagon UFO thing.
[01:49:01.680 --> 01:49:02.080] Yes.
[01:49:02.080 --> 01:49:02.320] Right?
[01:49:02.560 --> 01:49:05.520] So, and this is what happens: is like, yeah, people get tired of it.
[01:49:05.520 --> 01:49:10.800] It kind of fades into the background, kind of the baseline levels, and then something, a new flap happens, right?
[01:49:10.800 --> 01:49:12.960] A sighting or whatever.
[01:49:12.960 --> 01:49:17.600] And then, you know, it's like it's a same cycle repeats itself.
[01:49:17.600 --> 01:49:19.920] They put up a bunch of crappy evidence.
[01:49:19.920 --> 01:49:27.040] The proponents resurrect all the same old stories and sort of incorporate anything new into the same old narrative.
[01:49:27.040 --> 01:49:30.000] The skeptics thoroughly debunk it.
[01:49:30.000 --> 01:49:32.560] And then it sort of fades into the background again.
[01:49:32.560 --> 01:49:36.560] But it's every time it's a huge nothing burger, as we like to say.
[01:49:36.560 --> 01:49:38.400] Like, there's nothing actually changes.
[01:49:38.400 --> 01:49:41.360] They didn't come up with any actual evidence.
[01:49:41.360 --> 01:49:43.200] And the UFO thing is the same thing.
[01:49:43.200 --> 01:49:48.560] When it happened a few years ago, there was a lot of people saying, oh, we really got it this time, right?
[01:49:48.880 --> 01:49:51.200] The whole, we really found the aliens this time.
[01:49:51.200 --> 01:49:52.560] This changes everything.
[01:49:52.560 --> 01:50:00.160] And the news media, the mainstream media, New York Times, Waypo, right, are saying, like, this is something we need to take seriously now.
[01:50:00.160 --> 01:50:02.160] Like, finally, we could take it seriously.
[01:50:02.160 --> 01:50:12.240] Like, they were so excited that they could talk about UFOs and get all the clickbait without being embarrassed about doing crappy journalism, even though they basically had plausible deniability.
[01:50:12.560 --> 01:50:14.240] And we said, this is nothing.
[01:50:14.240 --> 01:50:16.800] This is going to turn into nothing.
[01:50:16.800 --> 01:50:18.160] And what happened?
[01:50:18.160 --> 01:50:23.760] The Pentagon did their analysis, came out with the report, and they said it's nothing.
[01:50:24.360 --> 01:50:26.240] They said there's no evidence of aliens.
[01:50:26.240 --> 01:50:27.200] That's the bottom line.
[01:50:28.240 --> 01:50:37.400] As soon as any of these types of things start changing their names, as soon as it changes, it realizes that UFOs are silly.
[01:50:37.720 --> 01:50:41.720] You cross over into what your image is here of the big gray.
[01:50:41.720 --> 01:50:42.600] Oh, it's kind of.
[01:50:42.600 --> 01:50:44.760] So we have to change the brand.
[01:50:44.760 --> 01:50:49.000] And whenever there's a brand change, you just know it's more of the same horseshit.
[01:50:49.640 --> 01:50:55.160] Even like with the cold fusion thing, we can't call it cold fusion because everybody knows that that doesn't work.
[01:50:55.160 --> 01:50:56.760] So we're going to rebrand it.
[01:50:56.760 --> 01:50:59.480] And it's just, as soon as there's a rebranding, you just go, no.
[01:50:59.720 --> 01:51:00.520] It's desperation.
[01:51:00.520 --> 01:51:01.480] Desperation, yeah.
[01:51:01.480 --> 01:51:09.240] Like they themselves know how silly it is on some level that we can't call it the thing we've been calling it for 30 years because everyone knows it's BS.
[01:51:09.240 --> 01:51:10.760] It's amazing.
[01:51:11.080 --> 01:51:11.880] All right.
[01:51:14.440 --> 01:51:19.400] It's time for science or fiction.
[01:51:24.200 --> 01:51:29.080] Each week I come up with three science news items or facts two real and one fake.
[01:51:29.080 --> 01:51:34.120] And then I challenge my panel of expert skeptics to tell me which one is the fake.
[01:51:34.120 --> 01:51:37.320] And during live shows, we get to poll the audience too.
[01:51:37.320 --> 01:51:39.480] George will do his one clap thing.
[01:51:39.480 --> 01:51:41.080] Okay, there's a theme this week.
[01:51:41.080 --> 01:51:42.760] Does anybody want to guess the theme?
[01:51:44.440 --> 01:51:45.160] Elections.
[01:51:45.320 --> 01:51:45.800] Elections.
[01:51:46.040 --> 01:51:46.440] Politics.
[01:51:47.080 --> 01:51:48.360] Richard Wise.
[01:51:48.520 --> 01:51:49.160] Number 1,000.
[01:51:49.400 --> 01:51:51.720] The number 1,000 is the theme.
[01:51:51.720 --> 01:51:52.600] Good job, Jay.
[01:51:53.960 --> 01:51:55.480] Number 1,000.
[01:51:55.720 --> 01:51:56.920] Here we go.
[01:51:56.920 --> 01:52:03.640] Item number one: there are roughly 1,000 stars within 45 light years of Earth.
[01:52:03.640 --> 01:52:14.360] Item number two: a recent census of a 430 square meter urban property in Brisbane, Australia found over 1,000 macroscopic species.
[01:52:14.360 --> 01:52:19.360] Basically, in one property, one yard with a house, 1,000 macroscopic species.
[01:52:20.480 --> 01:52:28.080] And item number three, in 2021, the median household income in the world was just over $1,000.
[01:52:28.400 --> 01:52:29.040] Okay.
[01:52:29.360 --> 01:52:29.760] Per year.
[01:52:30.240 --> 01:52:30.560] Per year.
[01:52:30.880 --> 01:52:31.360] Per year.
[01:52:31.360 --> 01:52:32.160] I thought you said here.
[01:52:32.160 --> 01:52:35.360] I was like, no, in the world, per year.
[01:52:35.360 --> 01:52:38.880] Let's start at the Evan end of the table, Evan.
[01:52:38.880 --> 01:52:44.000] Okay, 1,000 stars within 45 light years of Earth.
[01:52:45.120 --> 01:52:49.120] That seems high at first thought.
[01:52:49.680 --> 01:52:55.840] You think of what the closest star besides our own is, what, 4.3 light years away?
[01:52:55.840 --> 01:52:56.640] That's the closest.
[01:52:56.800 --> 01:52:58.160] That's number one.
[01:52:58.160 --> 01:53:00.960] To find number two, you go out a little bit further than that.
[01:53:03.600 --> 01:53:05.520] Number 917.
[01:53:06.720 --> 01:53:09.440] I mean, those guys, there's definitely life there.
[01:53:10.160 --> 01:53:14.400] I'm trying to establish a pattern, if there is a pattern, to be established here.
[01:53:14.400 --> 01:53:16.400] I think it's a Bernard star that's six light years away.
[01:53:16.800 --> 01:53:24.400] So, well, and so that would, if that were, if that played out equally, what, that would be, what, a thousand?
[01:53:24.800 --> 01:53:27.360] To get to a thousand stars, you would need 45.
[01:53:27.520 --> 01:53:29.120] Yeah, actually, that would work out, right?
[01:53:29.120 --> 01:53:30.160] 4.3.
[01:53:30.800 --> 01:53:32.320] 4.3 light years?
[01:53:32.320 --> 01:53:32.480] Yeah.
[01:53:32.720 --> 01:53:34.320] So the math works on that one.
[01:53:34.960 --> 01:53:35.600] I think.
[01:53:36.720 --> 01:53:37.200] Yeah.
[01:53:37.200 --> 01:53:39.760] And so I have a feeling that one's going to be science.
[01:53:40.000 --> 01:53:48.880] The second one: okay, this property in Brisbane, Australia, 1,000 macroscopic species.
[01:53:48.880 --> 01:53:50.240] Macroscopic.
[01:53:50.800 --> 01:53:53.040] That's also a lot.
[01:53:54.160 --> 01:53:56.000] That seems like too many.
[01:53:56.560 --> 01:53:57.040] Right?
[01:53:57.440 --> 01:54:02.280] Because wouldn't some of these things be eating each other and therefore you wouldn't find them?
[01:54:02.520 --> 01:54:05.800] Unless we're talking about like the remains of some we're not talking about the remains.
[01:54:06.280 --> 01:54:08.120] We're talking about a lot live things, Steve.
[01:54:08.120 --> 01:54:09.640] These are things are all alive.
[01:54:09.640 --> 01:54:13.320] These thousand macroscopic species are all alive at the same time.
[01:54:13.640 --> 01:54:14.760] Living things at the same time.
[01:54:15.320 --> 01:54:18.680] In a square that's 430 meters by 430 meters.
[01:54:18.680 --> 01:54:19.320] No.
[01:54:19.800 --> 01:54:23.640] 430 square meters, so it's like 10 by 43, right?
[01:54:25.560 --> 01:54:27.160] How many square feet is it?
[01:54:28.120 --> 01:54:28.760] I don't know.
[01:54:29.000 --> 01:54:30.280] That seems high.
[01:54:30.520 --> 01:54:33.720] The last one, I have no idea, the median household in the world.
[01:54:33.720 --> 01:54:41.320] I mean, my gosh, I mean, there are some places in which the poverty is beyond even your wildest thoughts.
[01:54:41.320 --> 01:54:42.680] It's so low.
[01:54:43.080 --> 01:54:49.400] So to say it's just over 1,000, I have a feeling, sadly, that one's going to turn out to be true.
[01:54:49.400 --> 01:54:53.160] I will say the macroscopic species one is the fiction.
[01:54:53.480 --> 01:54:54.680] Okay, Bob.
[01:54:55.320 --> 01:54:58.600] Something's dropping me wrong about the stars.
[01:54:59.400 --> 01:55:00.440] I know there's what?
[01:55:00.440 --> 01:55:02.680] How many stars are visible at night?
[01:55:03.160 --> 01:55:06.360] 3,000, 4,000, 5,000?
[01:55:06.360 --> 01:55:08.600] But not much more than that.
[01:55:08.600 --> 01:55:14.760] And those stars are very, you know, relatively close to our sun.
[01:55:14.760 --> 01:55:23.320] I mean, almost everything you see out there, if this is the galaxy and we're right here, the stars you're seeing are like a tiny little dot.
[01:55:23.640 --> 01:55:27.720] But that dot, I think, is a lot bigger than 45 light years.
[01:55:27.720 --> 01:55:33.720] So probably wrong with this, but I'm just going to just go with my gut and say that that's not quite right.
[01:55:34.520 --> 01:55:39.000] I'll say number one, the stars visible is fiction.
[01:55:39.000 --> 01:55:39.960] Okay, Jay.
[01:55:39.960 --> 01:55:53.680] All right, so I've learned lots of things from doing this show, and one of them is that life is teeming in Australia and that there's tons of bugs, and these got to be bugs.
[01:55:53.680 --> 01:55:55.760] So that one is science.
[01:55:56.400 --> 01:56:01.920] Unfortunately, a lot of people in the United States, going on to the third one here, a lot of people don't even have any income.
[01:56:01.920 --> 01:56:03.520] So I think that one is science.
[01:56:03.520 --> 01:56:07.920] I'm going to go with Bob and say that number one is about the stars.
[01:56:07.920 --> 01:56:09.600] That one is fiction.
[01:56:09.600 --> 01:56:10.400] Okay, Kara?
[01:56:10.400 --> 01:56:15.680] So this is tough because I'm trying to use, like, I'm trying to use Steve's psychology here.
[01:56:18.000 --> 01:56:20.640] Yeah, usually the rule is an order of magnitude, right?
[01:56:21.040 --> 01:56:22.640] That's a guideline more than a rule.
[01:56:22.640 --> 01:56:23.360] Uh-oh.
[01:56:27.520 --> 01:56:29.040] It's more of a feeling.
[01:56:29.360 --> 01:56:30.800] The plot thickens.
[01:56:30.800 --> 01:56:35.840] Okay, well, because my reasoning was: is it 10 or sorry, is it 100 or is it 10,000, right?
[01:56:35.840 --> 01:56:40.080] And which of those seem more reasonable to go in one direction or the other?
[01:56:40.080 --> 01:56:45.120] I think the median income across the globe is not 10,000 USD.
[01:56:45.120 --> 01:56:48.080] I think that's too high, and I think 100 is too low.
[01:56:48.080 --> 01:56:49.920] So I'm going to cross that one off.
[01:56:49.920 --> 01:56:52.240] I think he's stressing out right now.
[01:56:53.200 --> 01:56:55.120] So then the question is, like.
[01:56:57.040 --> 01:56:59.280] Kara, Kara, Steve just had a tell.
[01:56:59.840 --> 01:57:01.040] Steve just did a rare tell.
[01:57:01.040 --> 01:57:02.000] The audience picked up by it.
[01:57:02.160 --> 01:57:03.120] I didn't see it.
[01:57:03.920 --> 01:57:07.840] I think that, so now it's the stars versus the species.
[01:57:07.840 --> 01:57:13.840] I think the species, I have more confidence in my knowledge about something like this.
[01:57:13.840 --> 01:57:16.080] The stars, I'm not confident in at all.
[01:57:16.080 --> 01:57:18.000] Two people have gone with the stars.
[01:57:18.000 --> 01:57:18.960] That's Bob and Jay.
[01:57:18.960 --> 01:57:23.520] Bob having led the charge makes me nervous.
[01:57:25.440 --> 01:57:31.000] No, because like if it's an astronomy thing and Bob said, you know, he knows the shit.
[01:57:31.000 --> 01:57:31.480] But I don't know if you're going to be able to do it.
[01:57:31.560 --> 01:57:35.240] I think the thing, though, is like that, that's small.
[01:57:35.240 --> 01:57:39.320] When you say an urban property of 430, that's like, what, 1,000 square, like more, you know, something?
[01:57:39.320 --> 01:57:40.200] It's small.
[01:57:40.200 --> 01:57:48.520] And I'm thinking, yes, there is a stereotype that Australia has, you know, and it's true, but Brisbane is a city.
[01:57:48.520 --> 01:57:53.960] That doesn't mean that there aren't, but I don't know, a thousand different bugs there.
[01:57:54.280 --> 01:57:55.240] Yeah, I don't know.
[01:57:55.240 --> 01:57:58.120] That one feels high, although 100 feels low.
[01:57:58.120 --> 01:57:59.080] Might be 500.
[01:57:59.080 --> 01:58:03.480] But I think I'm going to go with Evan on this one, and I'm going to say it's not the insects.
[01:58:03.480 --> 01:58:03.720] Yeah.
[01:58:03.720 --> 01:58:05.560] Or the species.
[01:58:05.560 --> 01:58:06.600] All right, George.
[01:58:06.600 --> 01:58:20.280] I was leaning towards the median income one, but you said just over a thousand, as opposed to around a thousand or a thousand, which makes me feel like it's an actual number of like 11, 15 or something like that.
[01:58:21.160 --> 01:58:25.560] But I do agree with Kara about the thousand bugs.
[01:58:25.640 --> 01:58:29.320] Thousand bugs on a four-football field size.
[01:58:29.560 --> 01:58:31.160] I could see that being.
[01:58:33.720 --> 01:58:35.640] I'm going to go with the median household income.
[01:58:35.640 --> 01:58:35.960] I shouldn't.
[01:58:36.120 --> 01:58:36.760] I shouldn't.
[01:58:37.480 --> 01:58:37.960] No sweet.
[01:58:38.200 --> 01:58:38.920] That is bold.
[01:58:39.880 --> 01:58:40.280] That is bald.
[01:58:40.440 --> 01:58:41.080] Ball spread out.
[01:58:41.160 --> 01:58:42.200] It's strategy.
[01:58:42.200 --> 01:58:43.240] Because it's probably lower.
[01:58:43.240 --> 01:58:44.680] It's probably like really sad and lower.
[01:58:44.760 --> 01:58:45.400] You can poll the audience.
[01:58:45.640 --> 01:58:52.520] We're going to poll the audience and see which rogue you thought was the most persuasive, and also just which one you think is the fiction.
[01:58:52.520 --> 01:58:53.240] Do you want to do the thing?
[01:58:53.400 --> 01:58:58.600] All right, which is, yeah, if you think the first one is the fiction, the light years, here we go.
[01:58:58.920 --> 01:58:59.400] Okay.
[01:58:59.400 --> 01:59:02.520] If you think the second one is the fiction, here we go.
[01:59:03.640 --> 01:59:04.280] Pretty close.
[01:59:04.280 --> 01:59:06.680] And if it's the household income, is the fiction.
[01:59:08.600 --> 01:59:11.880] So I think, yeah, one and two were tied.
[01:59:11.880 --> 01:59:14.440] Three was way behind.
[01:59:14.440 --> 01:59:21.680] So it's George and a minority of the audience think that a very attractive, intelligent minority.
[01:59:22.320 --> 01:59:23.520] Well, they're all minority.
[01:59:24.240 --> 01:59:25.200] All three groups are minorities.
[01:59:25.760 --> 01:59:27.360] Let's start, let's just take them in order.
[01:59:31.440 --> 01:59:32.240] Okay.
[01:59:32.240 --> 01:59:34.320] You can't infer anything from that.
[01:59:34.720 --> 01:59:35.280] Just took a look at it.
[01:59:35.840 --> 01:59:40.640] There are roughly 1,000 stars within 45 light years of Earth.
[01:59:40.960 --> 01:59:45.760] Evan, you think that one is science?
[01:59:45.760 --> 01:59:46.240] Yeah.
[01:59:46.640 --> 01:59:48.320] Bob and Jay think it's fiction.
[01:59:48.960 --> 01:59:51.040] Kara and George think it's science.
[01:59:51.040 --> 01:59:51.680] But what?
[01:59:51.840 --> 01:59:54.800] The 40% of the audience think this one is science.
[01:59:55.440 --> 01:59:59.280] This one is science.
[02:00:01.520 --> 02:00:04.640] And Evan, you nailed it.
[02:00:04.880 --> 02:00:12.800] The math does work out because if you think about it this way, the nearest star is 4.5 light years.
[02:00:12.800 --> 02:00:22.720] So if you say, all right, if you put each star in a box, that's 4.5 light years, and you go out, you know, 45 light years, that's 10.
[02:00:22.720 --> 02:00:25.040] By 10, by 10 is 1,000.
[02:00:25.040 --> 02:00:26.720] There's 1,000 boxes with stars in them.
[02:00:29.760 --> 02:00:31.200] My God, it's full of stars.
[02:00:31.920 --> 02:00:35.040] And that turns out to be roughly the answer.
[02:00:35.040 --> 02:00:37.520] There's about 1,000 stars within 45 light years.
[02:00:37.520 --> 02:00:40.240] Bob got screwed up because of why.
[02:00:40.240 --> 02:00:44.000] He was confusing stars with visible stars.
[02:00:44.960 --> 02:00:50.400] So, most of these stars are not naked eye visible because they're red dwarfs.
[02:00:50.400 --> 02:00:52.000] So, I was kind of right in my thinking.
[02:00:52.000 --> 02:00:52.320] Yeah.
[02:00:52.480 --> 02:00:54.880] I think it was right, but you got there.
[02:00:53.800 --> 02:00:54.680] I felt better.
[02:00:54.680 --> 02:00:56.320] You confused visible stars with stars.
[02:00:56.560 --> 02:00:59.200] My excuse is Bob completely failed me.
[02:00:59.520 --> 02:01:04.120] I said to myself, whatever Bob goes with, I'm doing it, and you're never going to do it.
[02:01:04.120 --> 02:01:05.960] Never is this going to happen again.
[02:00:59.760 --> 02:01:07.080] Never again.
[02:01:07.960 --> 02:01:09.000] The next thousand episodes.
[02:01:09.000 --> 02:01:09.400] You'll show.
[02:01:09.560 --> 02:01:11.800] All right, let's go to number two.
[02:01:11.800 --> 02:01:20.920] A recent census of a 430 square meter urban property in Brisbane, Australia, found over 1,000 macroscopic species.
[02:01:20.920 --> 02:01:24.920] Evan and Kara think this one is the fiction.
[02:01:25.240 --> 02:01:28.440] A lot of the audience thinks this one is the fiction.
[02:01:28.440 --> 02:01:29.480] And this one thinks.
[02:01:43.160 --> 02:01:44.280] His timing.
[02:01:44.280 --> 02:01:45.240] Steve.
[02:01:59.560 --> 02:02:03.560] The watermelon is no longer an anomaly, people.
[02:02:04.520 --> 02:02:07.800] Ian has shit timing.
[02:02:07.800 --> 02:02:08.600] That's it.
[02:02:08.600 --> 02:02:10.600] That's what we learned today.
[02:02:10.600 --> 02:02:12.120] F science or fiction.
[02:02:12.120 --> 02:02:13.800] It's all about Ian.
[02:02:14.360 --> 02:02:16.280] Are we recording?
[02:02:17.880 --> 02:02:19.080] Do I need to repeat anything?
[02:02:20.440 --> 02:02:21.400] All right, hello.
[02:02:22.440 --> 02:02:24.280] We just started recording.
[02:02:25.880 --> 02:02:26.840] And go.
[02:02:29.000 --> 02:02:36.600] A recent census of a 430 square meter urban property in Brisbane, Australia found over 1,000 macroscopic species.
[02:02:36.600 --> 02:02:39.800] Evan and Kara think this one is the fiction.
[02:02:39.800 --> 02:02:44.040] About 40% of the audience think this one is the fiction.
[02:02:44.040 --> 02:02:47.200] And this one is science.
[02:02:47.520 --> 02:02:49.520] No, George!
[02:02:49.840 --> 02:02:51.120] George!
[02:02:58.000 --> 02:02:59.840] Steve, is this George's first win?
[02:03:00.320 --> 02:03:01.360] No, it's not his first win.
[02:03:01.360 --> 02:03:02.720] I think it's his first solo win.
[02:03:02.880 --> 02:03:03.520] Oh, man, George.
[02:03:03.520 --> 02:03:04.160] It could be for solid.
[02:03:04.240 --> 02:03:05.600] It's a thousand shows.
[02:03:06.400 --> 02:03:07.600] It only took a thousand Georgia.
[02:03:07.840 --> 02:03:10.000] George, you landed, you nailed the landing, man.
[02:03:10.640 --> 02:03:11.360] Good job, brother.
[02:03:11.360 --> 02:03:11.920] Oh, my God.
[02:03:12.240 --> 02:03:17.760] So there are a thousand distinct species in this property in Brisbane, Australia.
[02:03:17.760 --> 02:03:19.680] They're all spiders.
[02:03:20.000 --> 02:03:21.040] Every single one of them.
[02:03:21.440 --> 02:03:22.080] No, no, no.
[02:03:23.440 --> 02:03:24.480] They're mostly flies.
[02:03:24.960 --> 02:03:27.520] We're freaking talking about Australia.
[02:03:27.840 --> 02:03:29.440] There are lots of bugs.
[02:03:29.440 --> 02:03:30.560] There's some worms.
[02:03:30.560 --> 02:03:31.920] There's a lot of mammals.
[02:03:31.920 --> 02:03:33.360] There's snails and stuff.
[02:03:33.360 --> 02:03:34.240] But yeah, a thousand.
[02:03:34.240 --> 02:03:35.680] It's just a lot more than you think.
[02:03:35.680 --> 02:03:37.680] And this is the first Australian person in the audience.
[02:03:37.680 --> 02:03:38.800] Did we fool you or no?
[02:03:38.800 --> 02:03:41.760] Because North one, Brizzy, isn't a city.
[02:03:41.760 --> 02:03:42.480] No, N-O!
[02:03:45.360 --> 02:03:47.360] Neui, Brizi's not a city.
[02:03:47.360 --> 02:03:48.320] I love it.
[02:03:48.640 --> 02:03:49.600] Noi.
[02:03:50.240 --> 02:03:51.920] How do you say the word N-O?
[02:03:51.920 --> 02:03:52.640] Noy?
[02:03:53.280 --> 02:03:53.840] I love it!
[02:03:54.160 --> 02:03:55.120] It's so fucking cool.
[02:03:55.520 --> 02:03:56.080] NAR.
[02:03:56.400 --> 02:03:57.360] NOI, NAI.
[02:03:57.440 --> 02:03:57.680] NAR.
[02:03:57.920 --> 02:03:58.400] NOI.
[02:03:58.640 --> 02:03:59.120] NAR.
[02:03:59.840 --> 02:04:01.760] Well, whatever, in Brisbane.
[02:04:05.040 --> 02:04:07.440] According to the paper, it was urban.
[02:04:07.440 --> 02:04:08.080] Okay.
[02:04:08.080 --> 02:04:08.400] Right?
[02:04:08.400 --> 02:04:11.520] So the researchers felt that Brisbane was urban.
[02:04:11.520 --> 02:04:12.880] You can call that whatever you want.
[02:04:12.880 --> 02:04:14.240] There's like six big cities.
[02:04:14.240 --> 02:04:14.880] That's one of them.
[02:04:15.040 --> 02:04:17.200] There's a lot more stuff living in the city than you think.
[02:04:17.520 --> 02:04:17.760] Right?
[02:04:17.760 --> 02:04:19.040] It's not, yeah, right.
[02:04:19.040 --> 02:04:20.240] Especially the small stuff.
[02:04:20.240 --> 02:04:23.040] But it was stuff they could see with the naked eye.
[02:04:23.040 --> 02:04:23.440] Right?
[02:04:23.440 --> 02:04:25.600] Because you can't count bacteria.
[02:04:26.000 --> 02:04:30.000] How many different species of bacteria do you think are in the average person?
[02:04:29.960 --> 02:04:30.520] Oh, my God.
[02:04:31.320 --> 02:04:31.560] How many of you have a thousand?
[02:04:31.640 --> 02:04:32.280] It's about 1,000.
[02:04:32.920 --> 02:04:33.400] That's about 1,000.
[02:04:34.040 --> 02:04:34.440] That was an awful lot.
[02:04:34.520 --> 02:04:35.240] That's the one you didn't use.
[02:04:36.200 --> 02:04:36.520] That's all.
[02:04:36.680 --> 02:04:37.160] All right.
[02:04:37.160 --> 02:04:46.120] This means that in 2021, the median household income in the world was just over $1,000 per year is the fiction.
[02:04:46.120 --> 02:04:47.480] So congratulations, George.
[02:04:48.520 --> 02:04:49.560] I hope it's better.
[02:04:50.200 --> 02:04:52.360] But it's not an order of magnitude lower.
[02:04:52.520 --> 02:04:53.800] You think it's lower?
[02:04:54.840 --> 02:04:55.080] Yeah.
[02:04:55.480 --> 02:04:56.760] Lower or higher?
[02:04:58.440 --> 02:04:59.160] I hope it's higher.
[02:04:59.720 --> 02:05:01.320] It's about $10,000.
[02:05:01.400 --> 02:05:01.960] What is $10,000?
[02:05:03.560 --> 02:05:05.160] It's about $9,000 and something.
[02:05:05.160 --> 02:05:06.440] It's almost $10,000.
[02:05:06.840 --> 02:05:07.080] Wow.
[02:05:07.400 --> 02:05:14.920] And to think that when the people clapped with George, and I'm sitting here going, they're idiots.
[02:05:15.240 --> 02:05:18.600] I figured people would be the best, give the pessimistic things.
[02:05:20.440 --> 02:05:24.920] You could look at there are charts that have every country and their median income.
[02:05:24.920 --> 02:05:32.600] And yeah, you know, it starts in the 40,000, 50,000 range for the Western industrialized, you know, wealthy nations.
[02:05:32.600 --> 02:05:33.880] And then it goes down from there.
[02:05:33.880 --> 02:05:38.680] And there are a lot in the several thousand, like, you know, 10,000 range and then several thousand.
[02:05:38.760 --> 02:05:40.040] Some are below $1,000.
[02:05:40.040 --> 02:05:43.640] In the several hundred dollars, that's your average income.
[02:05:43.640 --> 02:05:45.480] You know, obviously, very, very poor countries.
[02:05:45.480 --> 02:05:53.160] But, of course, this is averaged by population, so it all averages out to around $10,000 per year, which again is nothing when you think about it.
[02:05:53.640 --> 02:05:53.960] It doesn't really matter.
[02:05:55.000 --> 02:05:55.560] It's poverty.
[02:05:56.040 --> 02:05:56.440] It's median.
[02:05:56.840 --> 02:05:57.400] Yeah, yeah, median.
[02:05:57.640 --> 02:05:58.200] It's poverty.
[02:05:58.520 --> 02:05:59.320] Different measures.
[02:05:59.720 --> 02:06:01.880] That's how we paid Bill Nye to do the bit.
[02:06:02.520 --> 02:06:04.200] 10 grand every time.
[02:06:04.200 --> 02:06:05.080] He wants 10 grand.
[02:06:05.080 --> 02:06:06.440] Bill Nye wants 10 grand.
[02:06:06.440 --> 02:06:07.120] All right, bill nine.
[02:06:07.960 --> 02:06:09.480] Hey, Bill Nye, 10 grand.
[02:06:09.480 --> 02:06:10.360] All right, bow tie.
[02:06:10.360 --> 02:06:11.080] What are we going to say?
[02:06:11.120 --> 02:06:11.680] It's fine.
[02:06:12.040 --> 02:06:12.760] Bill Nye, I guess.
[02:06:12.920 --> 02:06:14.600] I don't know why I'm on Jackie Mason all of a sudden.
[02:06:14.600 --> 02:06:14.960] I don't know what I'm saying.
[02:06:14.840 --> 02:06:22.320] But, George, I appreciate it when people have the courage to strike out on their own and not just follow the crowd, and it pays off.
[02:06:22.640 --> 02:06:23.040] Steve just picks up.
[02:06:23.200 --> 02:06:23.920] One in a thousand.
[02:06:24.480 --> 02:06:25.200] It'll pay off.
[02:06:27.120 --> 02:06:28.000] All right.
[02:06:28.000 --> 02:06:32.560] So, guys, that's 1,000 episodes in the day.
[02:06:36.080 --> 02:06:37.680] Oh, my God.
[02:06:43.840 --> 02:06:50.640] All right, Evan, you must have chosen an awesome quote to close out our 11th, like 1,000th episode.
[02:06:50.960 --> 02:06:53.600] From an awesome, awesome human being.
[02:06:53.920 --> 02:07:10.000] At the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes: an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive they may be, and the most ruthless skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new.
[02:07:10.000 --> 02:07:14.800] This is how deep truths are winnowed from deep nonsense.
[02:07:14.800 --> 02:07:17.360] Carl Sagan from The Demon Haunted World.
[02:07:17.360 --> 02:07:17.840] Very nice.
[02:07:18.400 --> 02:07:19.360] Love that quote.
[02:07:28.400 --> 02:07:30.800] That essence right there, that was Carl Sagan, right?
[02:07:30.800 --> 02:07:38.320] That two worlds living together, the excitement over new possibilities married to ruthless skepticism.
[02:07:38.320 --> 02:07:40.000] We try to capture that.
[02:07:40.000 --> 02:07:41.680] It's hard to convey sometimes.
[02:07:42.240 --> 02:07:44.880] That's why I get so annoyed when people say, You're closed-minded.
[02:07:44.880 --> 02:07:46.000] Like, no, we're not.
[02:07:46.000 --> 02:07:47.440] You have no idea what you're talking about.
[02:07:47.440 --> 02:07:48.640] We are open to everything.
[02:07:48.640 --> 02:07:50.320] We just follow the evidence.
[02:07:50.320 --> 02:07:53.920] You're closed to the evidence because you have a true belief system.
[02:07:53.920 --> 02:07:55.600] That's closed-minded.
[02:07:56.080 --> 02:07:57.840] This is the model that we follow, right?
[02:07:57.840 --> 02:08:02.760] It's like we're open to, and I could be convinced of anything if the evidence is proportionate to the claim.
[02:08:02.760 --> 02:08:03.400] That's it.
[02:08:03.800 --> 02:08:04.680] That's all it takes.
[02:07:59.840 --> 02:08:07.080] And the world is amazing enough.
[02:08:07.320 --> 02:08:08.200] It's amazing.
[02:08:08.200 --> 02:08:11.960] Reality is so stupidly amazing.
[02:08:11.960 --> 02:08:13.240] Like, it's enough.
[02:08:13.560 --> 02:08:14.280] Enjoy it.
[02:08:14.280 --> 02:08:15.480] Like, dive into it.
[02:08:15.480 --> 02:08:16.120] Find it.
[02:08:16.120 --> 02:08:16.920] Discover it.
[02:08:16.920 --> 02:08:19.480] And he's so right that this is, it's a process.
[02:08:19.640 --> 02:08:27.080] We're slowly, slowly winnowing something that's more accurate than not from utter nonsense.
[02:08:27.080 --> 02:08:31.320] And if you don't do that process, you are left wallowing in utter nonsense.
[02:08:31.960 --> 02:08:32.920] Let's face it.
[02:08:32.920 --> 02:08:36.920] If you want to live in a fantasy world, why pick some shitty religion?
[02:08:36.920 --> 02:08:39.400] What about Lord of the Rings or Star Trek?
[02:08:39.400 --> 02:08:40.040] Yeah.
[02:08:40.360 --> 02:08:41.400] So much better.
[02:08:41.400 --> 02:08:43.240] There are better fantasy worlds out there.
[02:08:43.800 --> 02:08:44.440] Right?
[02:08:45.880 --> 02:08:51.000] So you're saying you would rather role play tabletop than join a religion?
[02:08:51.000 --> 02:08:54.200] I just want to know what reality is and then pick my fantasy.
[02:08:54.200 --> 02:08:54.520] Yeah.
[02:08:54.520 --> 02:08:56.120] I don't want someone to tell me what my fantasy is.
[02:08:56.360 --> 02:09:03.880] We often do say that, though, like when we're talking, like we're reviewing people who are in a cult or in like a UFO thing or whatever.
[02:09:04.440 --> 02:09:06.360] That's their entertainment, right?
[02:09:06.360 --> 02:09:08.680] And we often say, these people need to play a LARP.
[02:09:08.840 --> 02:09:09.320] Yeah.
[02:09:09.320 --> 02:09:09.800] Right?
[02:09:09.800 --> 02:09:11.160] They need to play tabletop or whatever.
[02:09:11.240 --> 02:09:11.880] Yeah, they need to play Dablet.
[02:09:11.960 --> 02:09:13.080] They met the novellas.
[02:09:13.080 --> 02:09:13.800] LARP.
[02:09:14.120 --> 02:09:22.520] Yeah, seriously, they need a fantasy life for entertainment that they know is fantasy and keep that separate from reality.
[02:09:22.520 --> 02:09:28.680] But they mix the two and to, you know, which creates a lot of nonsense, a lot of mischief.
[02:09:28.680 --> 02:09:29.240] Here, here.
[02:09:29.480 --> 02:09:29.880] Here, here.
[02:09:30.040 --> 02:09:30.440] Yeah, there.
[02:09:30.680 --> 02:09:31.080] All right.
[02:09:31.080 --> 02:09:34.920] So thank you all for joining us for our thousandth episode.
[02:09:34.920 --> 02:09:35.560] Yeah.
[02:09:52.160 --> 02:09:56.640] And until next week, this is your Skeptics Guide to the Universe.
[02:10:04.320 --> 02:10:11.040] Skeptics Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking.
[02:10:11.040 --> 02:10:15.680] For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org.
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