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Prompts Used

Prompt 1: Context Setup

You are an expert data extractor tasked with analyzing a podcast transcript. 
I will provide you with part 1 of 1 from a podcast transcript. 
I will then ask you to extract different types of information from this content in subsequent messages. Please confirm you have received and understood the transcript content.

Transcript section:
[00:00:03.280 --> 00:00:11.200] Once again, we're going to correct some errors in past episodes in our never-ending efforts to keep Skeptoid as good a resource as possible.
[00:00:11.200 --> 00:00:26.960] Today, we've got some interesting corrections from recent episodes talking about cryptocurrency, early prizes for paranormal abilities, the difference between hazard and risk, how to stop a planet killer asteroid, and many more.
[00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:31.200] And they're all coming up right now on Skeptoid.
[00:00:37.600 --> 00:00:42.400] Join us for an exclusive three-day exploration of historic Death Valley.
[00:00:42.400 --> 00:00:49.680] From October 21st to 24th, we'll take you from Las Vegas deep into the heart of this rugged, otherworldly landscape.
[00:00:49.680 --> 00:00:53.600] All transportation, lodging, and meals are included.
[00:00:53.600 --> 00:00:56.240] Your guides will be Skeptoid's Brian Dunning.
[00:00:56.240 --> 00:00:57.760] Hey, I know that guy, he's me.
[00:00:58.080 --> 00:01:01.360] And Death Valley expert geologist Andrew Dunning.
[00:01:01.360 --> 00:01:10.160] Together, they'll lead you to world-famous sites like Badwater Basin and the Artist's Palette, plus hidden gems that you won't find in any guidebook.
[00:01:10.160 --> 00:01:14.720] This year's trip features all new destinations with minimal overlap from last year.
[00:01:14.720 --> 00:01:19.920] And here's a bonus: Skepticamp Las Vegas begins the same evening we return to Las Vegas.
[00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:25.120] Make it a two-for-one trip and stick around to hear me talk about my visit to Area 51.
[00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:28.640] Details at skeptoid.com/slash events.
[00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:30.400] Spots are very limited.
[00:01:30.400 --> 00:01:31.920] Secure yours today.
[00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:39.920] Email help at skeptoid.com with questions and join the conversation with fellow adventurers at skeptoid.com/slash discord.
[00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:41.920] Death Valley is calling.
[00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:44.480] Are you ready to answer?
[00:01:48.640 --> 00:01:50.240] You're listening to Skeptoid.
[00:01:50.240 --> 00:01:53.680] I'm Brian Dunning from Skeptoid.com.
[00:01:53.680 --> 00:01:56.800] Debugging done diligently.
[00:01:57.760 --> 00:02:02.840] This episode was sponsored by the Illuminati Quality Control Officer.
[00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:08.360] To sponsor your own episode, come to skeptoid.com/slash sponsor.
[00:02:09.960 --> 00:02:21.960] Welcome to the show that separates fact from fiction, science from pseudoscience, real history from fake history, and helps us all make better life decisions by knowing what's real and what's not.
[00:02:22.600 --> 00:02:32.920] In a 1957 book, author Orlando Aloisius Batista wrote, An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.
[00:02:32.920 --> 00:02:43.160] Well, it might take me a few months, or in some cases, a few years, but eventually I do try to get around to every error in Skeptoid and prevent them from becoming mistakes.
[00:02:43.160 --> 00:02:51.560] And that's what I have for you today, another episode of Corrections, as we do here on Skeptoid, and as we have always done since the very beginning.
[00:02:51.560 --> 00:02:58.760] Thus, although we're not always error-free, we do try to remain mistake-free.
[00:02:59.720 --> 00:03:08.760] We're going to get started with a correction pertaining to cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and generating the power that's needed to make them possible.
[00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:25.240] In episode number 994 on the challenge of making artificial intelligence environmentally friendly, as its infrastructure is such an incredible electricity hog, I happened to mention that Japan had been the first country to declare Bitcoin as legal tender.
[00:03:25.240 --> 00:03:30.680] Listener Ron wrote in with a seemingly minor, but actually quite important correction.
[00:03:31.000 --> 00:03:33.080] Technically, this isn't quite right.
[00:03:33.080 --> 00:03:42.680] In 2016, Bitcoin was classified or recognized in Japanese law as property or an asset, rather than simply a token.
[00:03:42.680 --> 00:03:48.720] In practice, this meant crypto asset exchanges would be regulated by Japan's Financial Services Agency.
[00:03:49.040 --> 00:03:52.960] Regulation should boost confidence and user protection.
[00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.840] This is not quite the same as becoming legal tender.
[00:03:55.840 --> 00:04:03.120] The term legal tender refers to money that must be accepted if offered in payment of a debt under a country's laws.
[00:04:03.120 --> 00:04:10.960] This means, for instance, you can pay your taxes using this money, or it must be accepted in a court of law for the repayment of debts.
[00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:21.600] In Japan, people can accept payment in Bitcoin if they want to, but they do not have to accept Bitcoin, nor can anyone pay their taxes in Bitcoin.
[00:04:21.600 --> 00:04:22.800] All the best, Brian.
[00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:26.320] Thanks for everything you do to promote scientific thinking.
[00:04:27.280 --> 00:04:31.280] I will confess that's a distinction I was not aware of, but there it is.
[00:04:31.280 --> 00:04:38.240] Japan was the first to recognize Bitcoin as an asset that can be regulated, but that's not the same as legal tender.
[00:04:38.240 --> 00:04:39.200] Thank you, Ron.
[00:04:39.200 --> 00:04:42.000] And the transcript has been duly updated.
[00:04:42.000 --> 00:04:47.760] Ron also provided a valid reference, which I always ask for with corrections.
[00:04:48.400 --> 00:04:59.120] In episode number 989, guest host Jeff Wagg talked about paranormal prizes, such as the great James Randy's famous million-dollar challenge.
[00:04:59.120 --> 00:05:14.640] In the show, Jeff said that such challenges have a history going all the way back to the first one, which was in the 1920s when magician Harry Houdini offered a prize of $10,000 to anyone who could demonstrate a paranormal ability.
[00:05:14.640 --> 00:05:19.680] Listener Richard wrote in, I have to tell you, that is not exact.
[00:05:19.680 --> 00:05:35.080] The first, to my knowledge, is that of Gustave Le Bon, who founded a prize for 500 French francs in 1905, raised to 1,000 by Prince Roland Bonaparte, member of the Academy of Sciences, then to 2,000 by Dr.
[00:05:35.080 --> 00:05:46.600] Xavier Dariex, director of the Annals of Psychic Sciences, to any medium who moves an object without touching it in broad daylight and under the control of two conjurers.
[00:05:46.600 --> 00:05:53.240] We spoke about it ourselves with Henri Brux in our book 50 Years of Zetique two years ago.
[00:05:53.240 --> 00:05:56.440] Bonjour, Brian, thanks for your amazing work.
[00:05:57.080 --> 00:06:04.520] And my thanks to Richard, not just for the correction, but also for introducing me to Le Bon, of whom I had not heard before.
[00:06:04.840 --> 00:06:08.600] Check out the Wikipedia page for Gustave Le Bon.
[00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:15.000] He wasn't a magician, but rather a polymouth with a surprisingly wide range of real expertise.
[00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:20.760] He was so accomplished that I'll say no more, but rather leave it to you to discover on your own.
[00:06:20.760 --> 00:06:23.640] That's Gustave Le Bon.
[00:06:25.240 --> 00:06:34.680] Episode number 985 was about supervolcanoes and super earthquakes, and in it, I discussed the important difference between hazard and risk.
[00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:43.640] The example I gave was that falling into the sun would be a very hazardous place to be, but your risk of that happening is very low.
[00:06:43.640 --> 00:06:51.320] However, I gave a wrongly incomplete definition of risk as simply being the likelihood of a hazard happening.
[00:06:51.320 --> 00:07:00.440] The correction came in quickly from John Sifling, Skeptoid's board chair, technically and currently my boss.
[00:07:00.760 --> 00:07:13.800] Actually, risk is the product of likelihood, probability of a hazard occurring, and the severity, potential impact or consequences of the hazard, i.e., R equals L times S.
[00:07:13.800 --> 00:07:18.880] There are more sophisticated formulations, but this is the basic one that is most often used.
[00:07:18.880 --> 00:07:32.800] This having been said, I thought your overall discussion of hazards and risk in the episode was excellent and a very good topic, as people tend to both over and underestimate actual risk based on various cognitive biases.
[00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:36.160] For example, the availability heuristic.
[00:07:36.480 --> 00:07:50.880] John has 35 years of emergency management expertise, including both formal training and practical experience in risk management during events like the Exxon Valdez oil spill, serving in many roles, including Coast Guard Incident Commander.
[00:07:50.880 --> 00:07:55.760] So we'll throw him a bone and give him the benefit of the doubt on this one.
[00:08:00.240 --> 00:08:03.280] Fall is here and Skeptoid has you covered.
[00:08:03.280 --> 00:08:12.000] Literally, our back to school sale is happening all September long, with 20% off everything in the Skeptoid store.
[00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:22.160] Grab a cozy hoodie for those chilly mornings, sip your favorite roast from a Skeptoid coffee mug, or sport one of our shirts that proudly promotes critical thinking.
[00:08:22.160 --> 00:08:28.720] Just use the code Skeptoid20 at checkout and save 20% on your entire order.
[00:08:28.720 --> 00:08:31.920] Don't wait, this sale ends September 30th.
[00:08:31.920 --> 00:08:37.600] Head to skeptoid.com/slash store and get your gear today.
[00:08:43.360 --> 00:08:54.800] Episode number 982 was about defending against the planet killers, all the various countermeasures we have against all the various ways the universe might try to kill us.
[00:08:54.800 --> 00:08:59.600] Spoiler alert, that's a battle we'll almost certainly lose if it win and happens.
[00:08:59.720 --> 00:09:07.000] I mentioned mass extinctions that happened 372 million years ago and 445 million years ago.
[00:09:07.000 --> 00:09:15.080] Listener Jeff, or in this case, reader Jeff, pointed out the following: Doesn't GA represent a billion years?
[00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:17.640] Feel like maybe you meant MA.
[00:09:18.280 --> 00:09:19.480] He's correct.
[00:09:19.480 --> 00:09:31.240] Although I correctly said millions in the podcast, anyone reading the transcript would have seen that I incorrectly wrote 372 GA and 445 GA.
[00:09:31.240 --> 00:09:35.800] GA standing for giga-anum, a billion years before today.
[00:09:35.800 --> 00:09:42.200] The transcript has been corrected to MA mega-anum, a million years before today.
[00:09:42.840 --> 00:09:45.560] We had a second correction on this same episode.
[00:09:45.560 --> 00:09:52.840] A lot of the methods discussed had to do with changing the orbit of planet-killing asteroids to make them miss the Earth.
[00:09:52.840 --> 00:09:57.080] And a lot of these had to do with adding or removing material from these objects.
[00:09:57.080 --> 00:10:01.800] And I said something like this change to the object's mass would change its orbit.
[00:10:01.800 --> 00:10:07.320] Listener Juan wrote, You made an error in your discussion of asteroid planet killers.
[00:10:07.320 --> 00:10:15.000] Changing the mass of anything orbiting anything else under the influence of gravity has absolutely zero effect on the orbit.
[00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:24.760] If the mass goes down, the gravitational force goes down in an exactly proportional way, meaning that there's absolutely no change in the acceleration on the asteroid.
[00:10:24.760 --> 00:10:38.920] All those methods that you described changing the mass of the asteroid, the important things that they are ablating or otherwise blasting material off the asteroid, which applies an additional force on the asteroid, changing its orbit.
[00:10:38.920 --> 00:10:46.720] I'll admit to it being somewhat of a detail, but as a former astrophysics professor, I care about these details.
[00:10:44.760 --> 00:10:50.080] Thanks for the podcast and keep up your efforts at fighting Wu.
[00:10:51.600 --> 00:10:56.480] Now, I've known for years that changing the mass of an orbiting body has no impact on its orbit.
[00:10:56.480 --> 00:11:06.160] I learned that when I first started studying exoplanets and learned that although we can sometimes detect the details of its orbit, that tells us nothing about its mass.
[00:11:06.160 --> 00:11:15.920] So when I was researching this episode, a couple of articles that I used for the source on this indicated that changing the object's mass was what would change their orbits.
[00:11:15.920 --> 00:11:24.240] I read them carefully and shook my head and decided these writers must know something I don't, or there must be some other effect at play or something I didn't understand.
[00:11:24.240 --> 00:11:28.400] I mean, come on, celestial mechanics is complicated stuff.
[00:11:29.040 --> 00:11:38.000] After getting Juan's email, I went back to the sources and reread them with the newly refocused context, and sure enough, I must have been misreading them or something.
[00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:44.000] It is indeed the force exerted by the ablation method itself that causes the change in orbit.
[00:11:44.000 --> 00:11:45.600] The sources are correct.
[00:11:45.600 --> 00:11:47.360] Juan is correct.
[00:11:47.360 --> 00:11:50.640] And now the skeptoid transcript is correct as well.
[00:11:53.200 --> 00:11:57.120] I threw a nice goof in episode number 980.
[00:11:57.120 --> 00:12:07.120] Plato's description of the size of the central plane of Atlantis converts to just about 150,000 square kilometers, which I said was bigger than Germany.
[00:12:07.120 --> 00:12:10.000] Listener David was quick to jump on that.
[00:12:10.000 --> 00:12:16.960] It seems you might have mixed up square kilometers with square miles regarding the size of Germany.
[00:12:17.280 --> 00:12:19.760] And it turns out that's exactly what I did.
[00:12:19.760 --> 00:12:24.880] I had a list of countries sorted by area and didn't notice that it was in square miles.
[00:12:24.880 --> 00:12:27.120] I just assumed it was in square kilometers.
[00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:32.520] That would be bigger than Germany, which is about 138,000 square miles.
[00:12:32.520 --> 00:12:36.120] But in square kilometers, it's 357,000.
[00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:45.320] So in the transcript, I replaced it with Illinois, a better comparison to Plato's description of Atlantis, at 150,000 square kilometers.
[00:12:45.640 --> 00:12:51.240] Work long enough, and you're going to make bonehead errors, just as I did here.
[00:12:53.160 --> 00:12:56.280] Next, we have a mistake that I caught on my own.
[00:12:56.280 --> 00:13:07.160] Episode number 873 was about earthquake prediction, a thing that's still impossible to do with any useful combination of accuracy and lead time.
[00:13:07.160 --> 00:13:20.520] You may recall a news story that after a major quake in Italy in 2009 that killed over 300 people, Italian prosecutors charged and convicted seven seismologists with manslaughter.
[00:13:20.520 --> 00:13:30.360] The way this was popularly characterized on social media and low-quality news sources was that they were convicted for failing to predict the earthquake and warn everyone.
[00:13:30.360 --> 00:13:32.520] A thing that's impossible to do.
[00:13:32.520 --> 00:13:40.120] But if you don't have a decent level of science literacy, as the Italian prosecutors likely did not, you might not know that.
[00:13:40.120 --> 00:13:44.920] This is the way I characterized the incident in my episode as well.
[00:13:45.880 --> 00:13:49.880] And as you may be able to guess, that's not what happened at all.
[00:13:49.880 --> 00:13:55.480] The situation was more nuanced and had nothing to do with failing to predict the earthquake.
[00:13:55.480 --> 00:14:05.400] The seismologists who were convicted had been charged with downplaying the likelihood of a deadly quake, which they did under instructions at a media event.
[00:14:05.400 --> 00:14:12.120] They stated that a series of smaller quakes meant energy had been released, minimizing the chances of a larger quake.
[00:14:12.120 --> 00:14:14.720] Though that's not how earthquakes work.
[00:14:14.280 --> 00:14:20.640] Also, their convictions have since all been overturned as the media event was done under orders.
[00:14:21.600 --> 00:14:26.880] It would be wrong to prosecute scientists for not knowing things we can't know yet.
[00:14:26.880 --> 00:14:32.480] And it's also wrong to tell people they don't have to worry because there will be no earthquake.
[00:14:33.440 --> 00:14:38.400] Well, that's all we have time for today, which is a bummer because I still have a few left.
[00:14:38.400 --> 00:14:41.360] But luckily, there's no end in sight for Skeptoid.
[00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:46.240] Thus, there's no upper limit on the number of errors we'll continue to make and to correct.
[00:14:46.240 --> 00:14:48.960] That number of errors can actually be computed.
[00:14:48.960 --> 00:15:02.320] Given n as the number of episodes, k as the frequency at which errors occur, and e as the total number of errors after n episodes, we have e of n equals the floor of n divided by k.
[00:15:02.640 --> 00:15:06.400] So, now you know that.
[00:15:06.400 --> 00:15:14.480] We continue with an example of the kind of error correction not likely to make it into one of these shows in the ad-free and extended premium feed.
[00:15:14.480 --> 00:15:20.720] To access it, become a supporter at skeptoid.com/slash go premium.
[00:15:25.200 --> 00:15:40.800] A great big skeptoid shout-out to our premium supporters, including Steve and his son Samuel, Doug with ham radio call sign K1DUG, I've cut it three times and it's still too short, and Kurt Steggy.
[00:15:40.800 --> 00:15:48.240] I'll be at both the Seattle and the Las Vegas Skepticamps in the coming months, as well as the next Skeptoid adventure to Death Valley.
[00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:53.600] Check the calendar at skeptoid.com/slash events for complete details.
[00:15:53.600 --> 00:15:59.360] And to book me for your own event, come to skeptoid.com/slash speaking.
[00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:03.560] You want to know what's really going on with UFOs and alien visitation?
[00:16:03.880 --> 00:16:08.200] You already know you can trust Skeptoid to bring you the verified facts.
[00:16:08.200 --> 00:16:16.600] So watch my latest feature documentary film right now, the multiple award-winning The UFO Movie They Don't Want You to See.
[00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:22.760] Available now on most major streaming platforms and on YouTube, movies, and TV.
[00:16:23.080 --> 00:16:25.560] Skeptoid is a production of Skeptoid Media.
[00:16:25.560 --> 00:16:29.560] Director of operations and tinfoil hat counter is Kathy Reitmeyer.
[00:16:29.560 --> 00:16:33.240] Marketing guru and Illuminati liaison is Jake Young.
[00:16:33.240 --> 00:16:37.160] Production management and all things audio by Will McCamblis.
[00:16:37.400 --> 00:16:39.800] Music is by Lee Sanders.
[00:16:39.800 --> 00:16:42.760] Researched and written by me, Brian Dunning.
[00:16:42.760 --> 00:16:50.120] Listen to Skeptoid for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or iHeart.
[00:16:51.720 --> 00:16:55.080] You're listening to Skeptoid, a listener-supported program.
[00:16:55.080 --> 00:16:59.000] I'm Brian Dunning from Skeptoid.com.
[00:17:01.880 --> 00:17:03.880] From PRX.

Prompt 2: Key Takeaways

Now please extract the key takeaways from the transcript content I provided.

Extract the most important key takeaways from this part of the conversation. Use a single sentence statement (the key takeaway) rather than milquetoast descriptions like "the hosts discuss...". 

Limit the key takeaways to a maximum of 3. The key takeaways should be insightful and knowledge-additive. 

IMPORTANT: Return ONLY valid JSON, no explanations or markdown. Ensure:
- All strings are properly quoted and escaped
- No trailing commas
- All braces and brackets are balanced
Format: {"key_takeaways": ["takeaway 1", "takeaway 2"]}

Prompt 3: Segments

Now identify 2-4 distinct topical segments from this part of the conversation.

For each segment, identify:
- Descriptive title (3-6 words)  
- START timestamp when this topic begins (HH:MM:SS format)
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Most important Key takeaway from that segment. Key takeaway must be specific and knowledge-additive.
- Brief summary of the discussion

IMPORTANT: The timestamp should mark when the topic/segment STARTS, not a range. Look for topic transitions and conversation shifts.

Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted, no trailing commas:
{
  "segments": [
    {
      "segment_title": "Topic Discussion", 
      "timestamp": "01:15:30",
      "key_takeaway": "main point from this segment",
      "segment_summary": "brief description of what was discussed"
    }
  ]
}

Timestamp format: HH:MM:SS (e.g., 00:05:30, 01:22:45) marking the START of each segment.

Prompt 4: Media Mentions

Now scan the transcript content I provided for ACTUAL mentions of specific media titles:

Find explicit mentions of:
- Books (with specific titles)
- Movies (with specific titles)  
- TV Shows (with specific titles)
- Music/Songs (with specific titles)

DO NOT include:
- Websites, URLs, or web services
- Other podcasts or podcast names

IMPORTANT: 
- Only include items explicitly mentioned by name. Do not invent titles.
- Valid categories are: "Book", "Movie", "TV Show", "Music"
- Include the exact phrase where each item was mentioned
- Find the nearest proximate timestamp where it appears in the conversation
- THE TIMESTAMP OF THE MEDIA MENTION IS IMPORTANT - DO NOT INVENT TIMESTAMPS AND DO NOT MISATTRIBUTE TIMESTAMPS
- Double check that the timestamp is accurate - a timestamp will NEVER be greater than the total length of the audio
- Timestamps are given as ranges, e.g. 01:13:42.520 --> 01:13:46.720. Use the EARLIER of the 2 timestamps in the range.

Return ONLY valid JSON. Ensure all strings are properly quoted and escaped, no trailing commas:
{
  "media_mentions": [
    {
      "title": "Exact Title as Mentioned",
      "category": "Book",
      "author_artist": "N/A",
      "context": "Brief context of why it was mentioned",
      "context_phrase": "The exact sentence or phrase where it was mentioned",
      "timestamp": "estimated time like 01:15:30"
    }
  ]
}

If no media is mentioned, return: {"media_mentions": []}

Full Transcript

[00:00:03.280 --> 00:00:11.200] Once again, we're going to correct some errors in past episodes in our never-ending efforts to keep Skeptoid as good a resource as possible.
[00:00:11.200 --> 00:00:26.960] Today, we've got some interesting corrections from recent episodes talking about cryptocurrency, early prizes for paranormal abilities, the difference between hazard and risk, how to stop a planet killer asteroid, and many more.
[00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:31.200] And they're all coming up right now on Skeptoid.
[00:00:37.600 --> 00:00:42.400] Join us for an exclusive three-day exploration of historic Death Valley.
[00:00:42.400 --> 00:00:49.680] From October 21st to 24th, we'll take you from Las Vegas deep into the heart of this rugged, otherworldly landscape.
[00:00:49.680 --> 00:00:53.600] All transportation, lodging, and meals are included.
[00:00:53.600 --> 00:00:56.240] Your guides will be Skeptoid's Brian Dunning.
[00:00:56.240 --> 00:00:57.760] Hey, I know that guy, he's me.
[00:00:58.080 --> 00:01:01.360] And Death Valley expert geologist Andrew Dunning.
[00:01:01.360 --> 00:01:10.160] Together, they'll lead you to world-famous sites like Badwater Basin and the Artist's Palette, plus hidden gems that you won't find in any guidebook.
[00:01:10.160 --> 00:01:14.720] This year's trip features all new destinations with minimal overlap from last year.
[00:01:14.720 --> 00:01:19.920] And here's a bonus: Skepticamp Las Vegas begins the same evening we return to Las Vegas.
[00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:25.120] Make it a two-for-one trip and stick around to hear me talk about my visit to Area 51.
[00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:28.640] Details at skeptoid.com/slash events.
[00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:30.400] Spots are very limited.
[00:01:30.400 --> 00:01:31.920] Secure yours today.
[00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:39.920] Email help at skeptoid.com with questions and join the conversation with fellow adventurers at skeptoid.com/slash discord.
[00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:41.920] Death Valley is calling.
[00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:44.480] Are you ready to answer?
[00:01:48.640 --> 00:01:50.240] You're listening to Skeptoid.
[00:01:50.240 --> 00:01:53.680] I'm Brian Dunning from Skeptoid.com.
[00:01:53.680 --> 00:01:56.800] Debugging done diligently.
[00:01:57.760 --> 00:02:02.840] This episode was sponsored by the Illuminati Quality Control Officer.
[00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:08.360] To sponsor your own episode, come to skeptoid.com/slash sponsor.
[00:02:09.960 --> 00:02:21.960] Welcome to the show that separates fact from fiction, science from pseudoscience, real history from fake history, and helps us all make better life decisions by knowing what's real and what's not.
[00:02:22.600 --> 00:02:32.920] In a 1957 book, author Orlando Aloisius Batista wrote, An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.
[00:02:32.920 --> 00:02:43.160] Well, it might take me a few months, or in some cases, a few years, but eventually I do try to get around to every error in Skeptoid and prevent them from becoming mistakes.
[00:02:43.160 --> 00:02:51.560] And that's what I have for you today, another episode of Corrections, as we do here on Skeptoid, and as we have always done since the very beginning.
[00:02:51.560 --> 00:02:58.760] Thus, although we're not always error-free, we do try to remain mistake-free.
[00:02:59.720 --> 00:03:08.760] We're going to get started with a correction pertaining to cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and generating the power that's needed to make them possible.
[00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:25.240] In episode number 994 on the challenge of making artificial intelligence environmentally friendly, as its infrastructure is such an incredible electricity hog, I happened to mention that Japan had been the first country to declare Bitcoin as legal tender.
[00:03:25.240 --> 00:03:30.680] Listener Ron wrote in with a seemingly minor, but actually quite important correction.
[00:03:31.000 --> 00:03:33.080] Technically, this isn't quite right.
[00:03:33.080 --> 00:03:42.680] In 2016, Bitcoin was classified or recognized in Japanese law as property or an asset, rather than simply a token.
[00:03:42.680 --> 00:03:48.720] In practice, this meant crypto asset exchanges would be regulated by Japan's Financial Services Agency.
[00:03:49.040 --> 00:03:52.960] Regulation should boost confidence and user protection.
[00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.840] This is not quite the same as becoming legal tender.
[00:03:55.840 --> 00:04:03.120] The term legal tender refers to money that must be accepted if offered in payment of a debt under a country's laws.
[00:04:03.120 --> 00:04:10.960] This means, for instance, you can pay your taxes using this money, or it must be accepted in a court of law for the repayment of debts.
[00:04:10.960 --> 00:04:21.600] In Japan, people can accept payment in Bitcoin if they want to, but they do not have to accept Bitcoin, nor can anyone pay their taxes in Bitcoin.
[00:04:21.600 --> 00:04:22.800] All the best, Brian.
[00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:26.320] Thanks for everything you do to promote scientific thinking.
[00:04:27.280 --> 00:04:31.280] I will confess that's a distinction I was not aware of, but there it is.
[00:04:31.280 --> 00:04:38.240] Japan was the first to recognize Bitcoin as an asset that can be regulated, but that's not the same as legal tender.
[00:04:38.240 --> 00:04:39.200] Thank you, Ron.
[00:04:39.200 --> 00:04:42.000] And the transcript has been duly updated.
[00:04:42.000 --> 00:04:47.760] Ron also provided a valid reference, which I always ask for with corrections.
[00:04:48.400 --> 00:04:59.120] In episode number 989, guest host Jeff Wagg talked about paranormal prizes, such as the great James Randy's famous million-dollar challenge.
[00:04:59.120 --> 00:05:14.640] In the show, Jeff said that such challenges have a history going all the way back to the first one, which was in the 1920s when magician Harry Houdini offered a prize of $10,000 to anyone who could demonstrate a paranormal ability.
[00:05:14.640 --> 00:05:19.680] Listener Richard wrote in, I have to tell you, that is not exact.
[00:05:19.680 --> 00:05:35.080] The first, to my knowledge, is that of Gustave Le Bon, who founded a prize for 500 French francs in 1905, raised to 1,000 by Prince Roland Bonaparte, member of the Academy of Sciences, then to 2,000 by Dr.
[00:05:35.080 --> 00:05:46.600] Xavier Dariex, director of the Annals of Psychic Sciences, to any medium who moves an object without touching it in broad daylight and under the control of two conjurers.
[00:05:46.600 --> 00:05:53.240] We spoke about it ourselves with Henri Brux in our book 50 Years of Zetique two years ago.
[00:05:53.240 --> 00:05:56.440] Bonjour, Brian, thanks for your amazing work.
[00:05:57.080 --> 00:06:04.520] And my thanks to Richard, not just for the correction, but also for introducing me to Le Bon, of whom I had not heard before.
[00:06:04.840 --> 00:06:08.600] Check out the Wikipedia page for Gustave Le Bon.
[00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:15.000] He wasn't a magician, but rather a polymouth with a surprisingly wide range of real expertise.
[00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:20.760] He was so accomplished that I'll say no more, but rather leave it to you to discover on your own.
[00:06:20.760 --> 00:06:23.640] That's Gustave Le Bon.
[00:06:25.240 --> 00:06:34.680] Episode number 985 was about supervolcanoes and super earthquakes, and in it, I discussed the important difference between hazard and risk.
[00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:43.640] The example I gave was that falling into the sun would be a very hazardous place to be, but your risk of that happening is very low.
[00:06:43.640 --> 00:06:51.320] However, I gave a wrongly incomplete definition of risk as simply being the likelihood of a hazard happening.
[00:06:51.320 --> 00:07:00.440] The correction came in quickly from John Sifling, Skeptoid's board chair, technically and currently my boss.
[00:07:00.760 --> 00:07:13.800] Actually, risk is the product of likelihood, probability of a hazard occurring, and the severity, potential impact or consequences of the hazard, i.e., R equals L times S.
[00:07:13.800 --> 00:07:18.880] There are more sophisticated formulations, but this is the basic one that is most often used.
[00:07:18.880 --> 00:07:32.800] This having been said, I thought your overall discussion of hazards and risk in the episode was excellent and a very good topic, as people tend to both over and underestimate actual risk based on various cognitive biases.
[00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:36.160] For example, the availability heuristic.
[00:07:36.480 --> 00:07:50.880] John has 35 years of emergency management expertise, including both formal training and practical experience in risk management during events like the Exxon Valdez oil spill, serving in many roles, including Coast Guard Incident Commander.
[00:07:50.880 --> 00:07:55.760] So we'll throw him a bone and give him the benefit of the doubt on this one.
[00:08:00.240 --> 00:08:03.280] Fall is here and Skeptoid has you covered.
[00:08:03.280 --> 00:08:12.000] Literally, our back to school sale is happening all September long, with 20% off everything in the Skeptoid store.
[00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:22.160] Grab a cozy hoodie for those chilly mornings, sip your favorite roast from a Skeptoid coffee mug, or sport one of our shirts that proudly promotes critical thinking.
[00:08:22.160 --> 00:08:28.720] Just use the code Skeptoid20 at checkout and save 20% on your entire order.
[00:08:28.720 --> 00:08:31.920] Don't wait, this sale ends September 30th.
[00:08:31.920 --> 00:08:37.600] Head to skeptoid.com/slash store and get your gear today.
[00:08:43.360 --> 00:08:54.800] Episode number 982 was about defending against the planet killers, all the various countermeasures we have against all the various ways the universe might try to kill us.
[00:08:54.800 --> 00:08:59.600] Spoiler alert, that's a battle we'll almost certainly lose if it win and happens.
[00:08:59.720 --> 00:09:07.000] I mentioned mass extinctions that happened 372 million years ago and 445 million years ago.
[00:09:07.000 --> 00:09:15.080] Listener Jeff, or in this case, reader Jeff, pointed out the following: Doesn't GA represent a billion years?
[00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:17.640] Feel like maybe you meant MA.
[00:09:18.280 --> 00:09:19.480] He's correct.
[00:09:19.480 --> 00:09:31.240] Although I correctly said millions in the podcast, anyone reading the transcript would have seen that I incorrectly wrote 372 GA and 445 GA.
[00:09:31.240 --> 00:09:35.800] GA standing for giga-anum, a billion years before today.
[00:09:35.800 --> 00:09:42.200] The transcript has been corrected to MA mega-anum, a million years before today.
[00:09:42.840 --> 00:09:45.560] We had a second correction on this same episode.
[00:09:45.560 --> 00:09:52.840] A lot of the methods discussed had to do with changing the orbit of planet-killing asteroids to make them miss the Earth.
[00:09:52.840 --> 00:09:57.080] And a lot of these had to do with adding or removing material from these objects.
[00:09:57.080 --> 00:10:01.800] And I said something like this change to the object's mass would change its orbit.
[00:10:01.800 --> 00:10:07.320] Listener Juan wrote, You made an error in your discussion of asteroid planet killers.
[00:10:07.320 --> 00:10:15.000] Changing the mass of anything orbiting anything else under the influence of gravity has absolutely zero effect on the orbit.
[00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:24.760] If the mass goes down, the gravitational force goes down in an exactly proportional way, meaning that there's absolutely no change in the acceleration on the asteroid.
[00:10:24.760 --> 00:10:38.920] All those methods that you described changing the mass of the asteroid, the important things that they are ablating or otherwise blasting material off the asteroid, which applies an additional force on the asteroid, changing its orbit.
[00:10:38.920 --> 00:10:46.720] I'll admit to it being somewhat of a detail, but as a former astrophysics professor, I care about these details.
[00:10:44.760 --> 00:10:50.080] Thanks for the podcast and keep up your efforts at fighting Wu.
[00:10:51.600 --> 00:10:56.480] Now, I've known for years that changing the mass of an orbiting body has no impact on its orbit.
[00:10:56.480 --> 00:11:06.160] I learned that when I first started studying exoplanets and learned that although we can sometimes detect the details of its orbit, that tells us nothing about its mass.
[00:11:06.160 --> 00:11:15.920] So when I was researching this episode, a couple of articles that I used for the source on this indicated that changing the object's mass was what would change their orbits.
[00:11:15.920 --> 00:11:24.240] I read them carefully and shook my head and decided these writers must know something I don't, or there must be some other effect at play or something I didn't understand.
[00:11:24.240 --> 00:11:28.400] I mean, come on, celestial mechanics is complicated stuff.
[00:11:29.040 --> 00:11:38.000] After getting Juan's email, I went back to the sources and reread them with the newly refocused context, and sure enough, I must have been misreading them or something.
[00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:44.000] It is indeed the force exerted by the ablation method itself that causes the change in orbit.
[00:11:44.000 --> 00:11:45.600] The sources are correct.
[00:11:45.600 --> 00:11:47.360] Juan is correct.
[00:11:47.360 --> 00:11:50.640] And now the skeptoid transcript is correct as well.
[00:11:53.200 --> 00:11:57.120] I threw a nice goof in episode number 980.
[00:11:57.120 --> 00:12:07.120] Plato's description of the size of the central plane of Atlantis converts to just about 150,000 square kilometers, which I said was bigger than Germany.
[00:12:07.120 --> 00:12:10.000] Listener David was quick to jump on that.
[00:12:10.000 --> 00:12:16.960] It seems you might have mixed up square kilometers with square miles regarding the size of Germany.
[00:12:17.280 --> 00:12:19.760] And it turns out that's exactly what I did.
[00:12:19.760 --> 00:12:24.880] I had a list of countries sorted by area and didn't notice that it was in square miles.
[00:12:24.880 --> 00:12:27.120] I just assumed it was in square kilometers.
[00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:32.520] That would be bigger than Germany, which is about 138,000 square miles.
[00:12:32.520 --> 00:12:36.120] But in square kilometers, it's 357,000.
[00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:45.320] So in the transcript, I replaced it with Illinois, a better comparison to Plato's description of Atlantis, at 150,000 square kilometers.
[00:12:45.640 --> 00:12:51.240] Work long enough, and you're going to make bonehead errors, just as I did here.
[00:12:53.160 --> 00:12:56.280] Next, we have a mistake that I caught on my own.
[00:12:56.280 --> 00:13:07.160] Episode number 873 was about earthquake prediction, a thing that's still impossible to do with any useful combination of accuracy and lead time.
[00:13:07.160 --> 00:13:20.520] You may recall a news story that after a major quake in Italy in 2009 that killed over 300 people, Italian prosecutors charged and convicted seven seismologists with manslaughter.
[00:13:20.520 --> 00:13:30.360] The way this was popularly characterized on social media and low-quality news sources was that they were convicted for failing to predict the earthquake and warn everyone.
[00:13:30.360 --> 00:13:32.520] A thing that's impossible to do.
[00:13:32.520 --> 00:13:40.120] But if you don't have a decent level of science literacy, as the Italian prosecutors likely did not, you might not know that.
[00:13:40.120 --> 00:13:44.920] This is the way I characterized the incident in my episode as well.
[00:13:45.880 --> 00:13:49.880] And as you may be able to guess, that's not what happened at all.
[00:13:49.880 --> 00:13:55.480] The situation was more nuanced and had nothing to do with failing to predict the earthquake.
[00:13:55.480 --> 00:14:05.400] The seismologists who were convicted had been charged with downplaying the likelihood of a deadly quake, which they did under instructions at a media event.
[00:14:05.400 --> 00:14:12.120] They stated that a series of smaller quakes meant energy had been released, minimizing the chances of a larger quake.
[00:14:12.120 --> 00:14:14.720] Though that's not how earthquakes work.
[00:14:14.280 --> 00:14:20.640] Also, their convictions have since all been overturned as the media event was done under orders.
[00:14:21.600 --> 00:14:26.880] It would be wrong to prosecute scientists for not knowing things we can't know yet.
[00:14:26.880 --> 00:14:32.480] And it's also wrong to tell people they don't have to worry because there will be no earthquake.
[00:14:33.440 --> 00:14:38.400] Well, that's all we have time for today, which is a bummer because I still have a few left.
[00:14:38.400 --> 00:14:41.360] But luckily, there's no end in sight for Skeptoid.
[00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:46.240] Thus, there's no upper limit on the number of errors we'll continue to make and to correct.
[00:14:46.240 --> 00:14:48.960] That number of errors can actually be computed.
[00:14:48.960 --> 00:15:02.320] Given n as the number of episodes, k as the frequency at which errors occur, and e as the total number of errors after n episodes, we have e of n equals the floor of n divided by k.
[00:15:02.640 --> 00:15:06.400] So, now you know that.
[00:15:06.400 --> 00:15:14.480] We continue with an example of the kind of error correction not likely to make it into one of these shows in the ad-free and extended premium feed.
[00:15:14.480 --> 00:15:20.720] To access it, become a supporter at skeptoid.com/slash go premium.
[00:15:25.200 --> 00:15:40.800] A great big skeptoid shout-out to our premium supporters, including Steve and his son Samuel, Doug with ham radio call sign K1DUG, I've cut it three times and it's still too short, and Kurt Steggy.
[00:15:40.800 --> 00:15:48.240] I'll be at both the Seattle and the Las Vegas Skepticamps in the coming months, as well as the next Skeptoid adventure to Death Valley.
[00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:53.600] Check the calendar at skeptoid.com/slash events for complete details.
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[00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:03.560] You want to know what's really going on with UFOs and alien visitation?
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[00:16:55.080 --> 00:16:59.000] I'm Brian Dunning from Skeptoid.com.
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