Freakonomics Radio

Why Don’t Running Backs Get Paid Anymore? (Update)

February 4, 2026

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  • The decline in running back salaries is primarily driven by the increased marginal value of the passing game, supported by analytics and NFL rule changes favoring passing, rather than a decline in the inherent ability of running backs. 
  • The 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) significantly devalued the position by locking rookies into five-year, cost-controlled contracts, meaning running backs often don't reach their second contract until an age (27) when their career longevity is statistically declining. 
  • The running back position is considered the most physically punishing in the NFL, leading teams to adopt a 'running backs by committee' approach, prioritizing a strong offensive line and scheme over paying a single running back superstar wages. 

Segments

Running Backs’ Historical Star Power
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(00:01:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Running backs were historically the biggest stars in the NFL, ranking second in average salary behind quarterbacks 30 years ago, contrasting sharply with their current 15th rank.
  • Summary: For older football fans, running backs like Tony Dorsett and Barry Sanders were childhood idols, overshadowing quarterbacks and receivers. This era reflected their high status in the league’s economy. Today, running backs rank 15th in average salary among positions, a significant drop from their historical standing.
Fryer’s Economic Analysis Introduction
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(00:05:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Economist Roland Fryer is fascinated by the running back decline because intuition often conflicts with the data regarding positional value in complex systems like football.
  • Summary: Fryer views the running back issue as an intriguing case where human intuition about player value may be inconsistent with actual economic data. He is interested in applying economic principles to understand positional valuation in football. The episode aims to explore these inconsistencies using data.
Analytics Guru Explains Passing Superiority
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(00:07:05)
  • Key Takeaway: The analytics revolution, spearheaded by figures like Brian Burke, clearly demonstrated that passing plays are mathematically far superior to running plays in terms of expected points.
  • Summary: Brian Burke developed an expected points model that aggregated data by play type, revealing passing’s superiority over running. This finding suggested teams were running the ball too often relative to the optimal mix (Nash equilibrium). This analytical shift has been a core driver in devaluing the running game.
Running Back’s Physical Role and Value
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(00:15:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Running backs must perform multiple critical duties every play—running, blocking, and receiving—making it a uniquely demanding position where natural instinct must be balanced with studying defensive weaknesses.
  • Summary: Former running back LaShawn McCoy describes the position as requiring constant engagement, unlike receivers who can take plays off. He emphasizes that success requires both innate skill and deep study of the game to find defensive weak points. McCoy strongly feels the current market undervalues running backs who are not quarterbacks.
Supply vs. Demand in RB Market
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(00:13:22)
  • Key Takeaway: Data confirms that the supply side (running back talent, measured by combine stats) has not changed, meaning the decline in value is a demand story driven by the increased expected value of passing plays.
  • Summary: Roland Fryer tested supply-side theories by examining combine statistics, finding no change in running back athletic ability over the years. The primary shift is the increased expected value derived from passing plays compared to running plays. Teams prioritize passing because it maximizes points and revenue.
Impact of the 2011 CBA on Rookies
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(00:31:05)
  • Key Takeaway: The 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) mandated a rookie wage scale, handcuffing players to five-year, cost-controlled contracts, which disproportionately harms running backs whose prime years are often over by the time they earn a second contract.
  • Summary: Before 2011, drafted players could negotiate freely, but the CBA established fixed rookie contract terms based on draft order. Robert Turbin notes that running backs often reach peak wear-and-tear before age 27, when they finally become eligible for a second contract. This structure forces executives to question how much durability a running back has left after five years.
Physicality and Career Length
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(00:35:16)
  • Key Takeaway: The average career length for an NFL running back has plummeted from about five and a half years to roughly two and a half years, coinciding with the 2011 CBA, illustrating the position’s extreme perishability.
  • Summary: Robert Smith detailed the severe physical punishment, including multiple knee surgeries, that running backs endure, making health a major factor in early retirement calculations. He retired before 29, realizing the risk of losing health outweighed potential future earnings. The league’s salary cap allocation reflects this low expected career value.
Agent Perspective on Market Shift
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(00:39:30)
  • Key Takeaway: Agencies once known specifically for representing running backs have reduced their focus on the position because the market has spoken, leading to fewer agents willing to represent running backs.
  • Summary: Jeffrey Whitney’s agency, formerly known as the ‘running back agency,’ has pared down its roster due to the dramatic market change. This created a supply-and-demand issue where new agents often pick up the slack for dissatisfied players. The devaluation is also linked to running quarterbacks absorbing yardage previously attributed to running backs.
Cyclical Nature and Future Outlook
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(00:54:46)
  • Key Takeaway: While the running game has seen a slight uptick in usage recently, this is likely cyclical, and the success of elite backs like Saquon Barkley is often attributable to superior offensive lines, not just individual talent.
  • Summary: LaShawn McCoy remains optimistic, believing the league will copycat the Super Bowl-winning Eagles’ success, which featured a strong running game. However, Robert Smith argues that outliers like Barkley and Henry prove the point: their success is amplified by great offensive lines, meaning teams must still invest heavily in blocking first.