Freakonomics Radio

649. Should Ohio State (and Michigan, and Clemson) Join the N.F.L.?

October 10, 2025

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  • The American sports model, characterized by segregated amateur and professional leagues (like the NFL feeder system), fundamentally differs from the European soccer model, which integrates amateurs and professionals within a promotion-and-relegation pyramid structure. 
  • Promotion and relegation systems in sports leagues, as seen in European soccer, incentivize competition even among lower-tier teams and create a broader economic footprint for the sport, unlike the closed, monopolistic structure of the NFL. 
  • While merging top college football programs into the NFL structure with promotion/relegation is conceptually appealing for increased competition, it is considered highly impractical because current NFL owners would never surrender the guaranteed, multi-billion dollar value of their closed-system franchises. 

Segments

Listener Question on NFL/College Merger
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(00:01:03)
  • Key Takeaway: A listener from Scotland proposed comparing the NFL’s monopoly system to European soccer’s pyramid system, questioning if the NFL should adopt promotion/relegation.
  • Summary: The episode addresses a listener’s query about whether the NFL should abandon its monopoly structure for a promotion/relegation system similar to European soccer. This system would allow top college teams to potentially join the professional league, while the worst pro teams could be demoted. This concept moves the discussion from a closed system toward a more open, competitive market structure.
US vs. UK Sports Evolution
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(00:04:55)
  • Key Takeaway: The fundamental difference between US and European sports models stems from the 1870s/1880s decision to segregate or integrate amateur and professional athletes.
  • Summary: In the US, the 1871 split between professional baseball players and amateurs established a principle that professionals and amateurs do not mix, leading to the current closed league structure. Conversely, English soccer integrated professionals into the national association in 1885, allowing amateurs to play alongside pros, which fostered the development of prominent collegiate sports abroad. This historical divergence explains why the US lacks a high-profile collegiate sports parallel to European soccer.
NFL Player Career Trajectory
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(00:11:42)
  • Key Takeaway: The NFL’s structure offers high initial earnings for rookies but little financial security, as contracts are often not guaranteed and career length averages only 3.3 years.
  • Summary: Former NFL player Dominique Foxworth described his rookie contract as financially significant for a 22-year-old but lacking security, as it could end immediately due to injury. Success often hinges on securing a second contract, and players who don’t achieve this face a significantly challenging path afterward. Foxworth noted that securing his second major contract provided essential financial relief, which is a primary motivator for many players.
Promotion/Relegation Upsides and Downsides
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(00:17:46)
  • Key Takeaway: Promotion/relegation creates competitive balance by making games matter at all levels, but it causes roster turnover as relegated teams often fire-sale players.
  • Summary: A major upside of promotion/relegation is that games involving lower-ranked teams remain meaningful, unlike in US minor leagues where there is nothing to play for. However, teams relegated from the top tier, like the English Premier League, often face a ‘fire sale’ of players, though ‘parachute payments’ soften the immediate revenue blow. This system also discourages long-term infrastructure investment by teams that frequently move between tiers.
Geographic Footprint and Career Opportunities
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(00:23:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The closed NFL structure limits the sport’s footprint to 32 teams across the US, whereas a European pyramid system supports hundreds of professional teams and vastly more career opportunities.
  • Summary: The NFL maintains a scarcity of teams, often enforcing geographic restrictions, resulting in only about 1,700 active players annually. In contrast, Spain alone has over 8,000 professional soccer players across its pyramid structure. Adopting a pyramid model would significantly expand the sport’s footprint, creating economic and social benefits for smaller cities and college towns.
Value of High-Stakes Soccer Games
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(00:26:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The final playoff game determining promotion or relegation in English soccer can be the most valuable single game globally, potentially increasing a team’s revenue by $50 million or more.
  • Summary: Games determining league status generate immense financial stakes, exemplified by a 2013 playoff match where the outcome was worth tens of millions of dollars to the involved clubs. The emotional resonance of this system is highlighted by Leicester City’s journey from near-relegation to winning the Premier League title the following season. This hope of ascension is what promotion/relegation sustains in communities, unlike the static nature of US closed leagues.
NFL/NCAA Merger Feasibility
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(00:31:41)
  • Key Takeaway: While the NCAA could benefit from a promotion/relegation structure to sort its hierarchy, NFL owners are unlikely to agree to a merger that risks relegating their multi-billion dollar assets.
  • Summary: The concept of merging the NFL with top NCAA football teams is seen as ‘motherhood and apple pie’ by those outside the US system but is viewed as horrible by those raised in the US model. The primary obstacle is that NFL owners prioritize profitability and guaranteed asset value, making them resistant to any system that introduces the possibility of relegation. The NCAA, however, could use the threat of playing on Sundays to pressure the NFL into negotiations.
College vs. Pro Financial Disparity
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(00:41:10)
  • Key Takeaway: Top college football teams currently spend about one-tenth the amount on player compensation (via NIL) compared to the $250 million salary cap spent by the lowest-ranked NFL teams.
  • Summary: The economic gap between the top college teams and the worst NFL teams is vast, with Ohio State spending an estimated $20 million in NIL money versus the Browns’ $250 million salary cap commitment. While money doesn’t guarantee wins, this disparity suggests top college teams are not yet competitive with the worst NFL teams on the field. This financial imbalance reinforces why NFL owners have little incentive to embrace a system that could introduce relegation.
Likelihood of US Promotion/Relegation
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(00:57:37)
  • Key Takeaway: The likelihood of any US major league adopting a merger with college sports or implementing promotion/relegation within the next 20 years is estimated to be less than 5%.
  • Summary: Despite the theoretical benefits for fan engagement and competition, the entrenched financial interests of current league owners make radical structural changes like promotion/relegation highly improbable. The European Super League attempt demonstrated that powerful clubs prefer closed, cartel-like structures over open competition. However, the historical survival of European soccer clubs despite television competition, due to promotion/relegation, offers a glimmer of hope for maintaining community ties in lower leagues.