Intelligence Squared

Are Lithium and Cobalt the New Oil? The Elements of Power, with Nicolas Niarchos

February 25, 2026

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  • The global green transition, while necessary to combat climate change, is currently built upon "incredibly dirty" supply chains characterized by deep human rights abuses, corruption, and environmental destruction in resource-rich nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 
  • The historical pattern of colonial extraction continues in the modern battery metal industry, where wealthy nations push the human and environmental costs onto miners and polluted communities in producer countries, despite efforts by NGOs to clean up the supply chain. 
  • The supply chain for cobalt, which sees 70% of the world's current supply originating from the DRC, involves artisanal miners working for less than a dollar a day, followed by complex refining processes primarily centered in China before reaching global tech and auto manufacturers. 

Segments

Introduction and Episode Context
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: Decarbonization drives a great-power race for critical battery metals like cobalt and lithium, creating significant human and environmental costs.
  • Summary: The episode introduces Nicolas Niarchos discussing his book, The Elements of Power, which investigates the war for battery metal supply chains. The core issue is that the push for green technologies is built upon rapacious colonial legacies and current exploitation. Host Atossa Araxia Abrahamian sets the stage by noting the battle between Washington and Beijing for control over these essential elements.
Motivation for Battery Investigation
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(00:02:58)
  • Key Takeaway: The author’s investigation into the DRC’s resource wealth paradox, sparked by meeting Congolese refugees, led directly to uncovering the dark side of the battery supply chain.
  • Summary: The author’s interest began while reporting on the European refugee crisis, leading him to question why resource-rich countries like the DRC produced such poor populations. This led to investigating figures like Dan Gertler and uncovering severe issues including child labor and pregnant women mining radioactive ore for less than a dollar a day.
Shortcomings in Supply Chain Cleanup
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(00:06:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Efforts to clean up critical mineral supply chains often fail due to a lack of consistency and the obscuring nature of global networks driven by cost exigencies.
  • Summary: Nonprofit and agency efforts lack consistency, as demonstrated when Apple removed a cobalt supplier only to see it creep back into the chain later. The obscurity of the global supply chain, similar to how capital flows are hidden, obscures the origin of the final products.
Cobalt Supply Chain Mapping
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(00:07:44)
  • Key Takeaway: Seventy percent of the world’s cobalt supply originates in the DRC, where it is partially refined before being shipped via circuitous land routes to China for final battery refining.
  • Summary: After mining in the DRC, cobalt is turned into hydroxide (a bright blue powder) and shipped to Chinese refining plants in cities like Kyuzhu or Shenzhen. These refiners are directly linked to major battery assemblers like CATL and BYD, who supply companies such as Tesla and Apple.
Green Transition’s Environmental Cost
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(00:10:49)
  • Key Takeaway: Electric vehicles are significantly more environmentally polluting during production than commonly perceived, relying on supply chains rife with human rights abuses and corruption.
  • Summary: While the technology itself could be clean, the current supply chain for producing electric cars is undeniably dirty, involving massive amounts of copper, cobalt, and lithium extraction. The author argues the green transition is built on shaky fundamentals, necessitating a return to focus on environmental mining practices and supply chain shortening.
Colonial Echoes in Resource Extraction
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(00:13:22)
  • Key Takeaway: The current extractive industries in resource-rich areas like the DRC (cobalt), Indonesia (nickel), and Western Sahara (phosphate) echo the historical patterns established by European colonial powers.
  • Summary: The DRC was historically targeted for resources ranging from ivory and rubber to copper and uranium, mirroring the Dutch exploitation of Indonesia and Spanish involvement in Western Sahara. While modern Chinese investment differs from historical European brutality, it still echoes mercantilist colonialism in its mercantile focus.
US Policy and DRC Corruption
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(00:19:41)
  • Key Takeaway: The US government’s expediency in dealing directly with the widely viewed as illegitimate DRC President Felix Tshisekedi risks emboldening corrupt actors and undermining long-term stability for critical mineral investments.
  • Summary: The author worries that high-level expediency ignores the basic facts on the ground in the DRC, where the president does not control vast territories and faces legitimacy issues from rigged elections. This approach risks future renegotiations that fail to benefit the impoverished population, as investments only serve to line the pockets of the corrupt.
Artisanal Miner’s Struggle
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(00:22:24)
  • Key Takeaway: Artisanal miners like Odilonka Drumba Kilanga are trapped in the industry because the southern DRC offers mining as virtually the only viable economic activity, despite their desire to leave.
  • Summary: Odilonka, an intelligent artisanal miner, is repeatedly sucked back into the dangerous work because he cannot secure capital to pursue other ventures, such as opening a restaurant. The region’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on mining, leaving those not involved in large industrial operations in a difficult position.
Journalistic Challenges and Detainment
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(00:25:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Reporting in the DRC is extremely difficult due to government restrictions, lack of public documents, and the necessity of rigorous fact-checking against widespread rumors and conspiracy theories.
  • Summary: The author faced detention and obstruction while reporting, noting that Congolese journalists often face far worse treatment, including torture. The environment requires constant verification of information, as the public discourse is heavily influenced by half-truths due to unstable relationships with authority.
Phosphate and the ‘No Free Lunch’ Principle
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(00:33:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Even alternative, cobalt-free battery technologies like LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) rely on scarce resources like phosphate, sourced from disputed territories like Western Sahara, proving there is no ‘free lunch’ in technology.
  • Summary: While LFP batteries are safer and cobalt-free, they utilize phosphate, a scarce resource used heavily in agriculture. Morocco’s phosphate supply includes material from Western Sahara, leading to international trade disputes, illustrating that every clean technology has associated extractive implications.
Worth of the Green Transition
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(00:35:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The green transition is absolutely worth pursuing, provided it is done intelligently by addressing the entire supply chain and the welfare of people at the extraction end, not just focusing on cleaner cities.
  • Summary: The author emphasizes that the planet’s heating and climate change impacts, such as intensifying farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel, necessitate action. The goal should be intelligent implementation that considers the whole supply chain, rather than simply shifting pollution from one area (like a city) to another (like an Indonesian island).