Unexplainable

The Codfather

February 25, 2026

Key Takeaways Copied to clipboard!

  • The central conflict of the episode revolves around the deep mistrust between New Bedford fishermen and the government/scientific community regarding cod population assessments, which allowed figures like Carlos Rafael, "The Codfather," to operate outside the established system. 
  • The official method for counting fish stocks, the NOAA trawl survey, is heavily criticized by fishermen for using outdated gear (like the net in the 2002 Trawlgate incident) and methodology, leading to quotas that fishermen felt were inaccurate and economically devastating. 
  • Carlos Rafael, "The Codfather," exploited the strict cod quotas by vertically integrating his business (owning boats and the processing plant) to illegally misreport low-quota fish like cod and sole as high-quota fish like haddock, a fraud many locals were ambivalent toward due to their own distrust of the regulations. 

Segments

Introduction of The Codfather
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(00:01:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Ian Coss, host of “Catching the Codfather,” introduces Carlos Rafael, the controversial fishing mogul from New Bedford, Massachusetts.
  • Summary: The episode focuses on Carlos Rafael, known as “The Codfather,” a divisive figure in the New Bedford fishing port. Rafael thrived around 2013 when fishing regulations were tight and fish stocks were scientifically deemed poor. His continued success and ability to buy more boats raised significant intrigue about his operations.
IRS Undercover Investigation
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(00:03:13)
  • Key Takeaway: IRS investigators posed as Russian businessmen to uncover the source of Carlos Rafael’s wealth, leading to the discovery of a secret cash ledger.
  • Summary: Undercover agents, adopting elaborate disguises including Rolexes and Versace, approached Carlos Rafael to buy his business, Carlos Seafood. They found his office decorated with ‘Scarface’ memorabilia, and Rafael eventually revealed a second set of books detailing cash transactions. This ledger, surprisingly, listed only fish, not drugs or arms, redirecting the investigation toward fishing fraud.
Fish Counting Methodology Explained
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(00:07:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Counting ocean fish is inherently difficult due to their movement, depth, and mixing with other species, necessitating systematic trawl surveys.
  • Summary: Fish counting is complicated because cod travel hundreds of miles to spawn and hide in deep, rocky areas. Since the 1960s, the federal government has used trawl surveys, dropping nets in computer-selected quadrants to sample fish populations over time. Marine biologist Linda Despray spent over a thousand days at sea collecting these samples, often pulling up debris like anchors and unexploded bombs.
Fishermen Skepticism of Trawl Surveys
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(00:11:41)
  • Key Takeaway: Fishermen universally distrust the trawl survey data because the government’s research nets are outdated compared to commercial gear, leading to perceived inaccurate stock assessments.
  • Summary: Fisherman Tony Alvernez, who worked on NOAA boats, found the survey gear extremely lacking, noting the net was outdated by commercial standards and could miss significant amounts of cod. This outdated gear determined quotas, which Alvernez described as the ‘voice of God’ setting ‘scripture’ for the industry. This lack of trust was cemented by the 2002 Trawlgate scandal, where mismatched net lines caused the gear to collapse for over two years.
Quota Cuts and Choke Species
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(00:23:20)
  • Key Takeaway: Severe quota cuts, such as a 77% reduction in Gulf of Maine cod in 2013, forced fishermen into illegal practices like discarding valuable fish to avoid hitting their quota limits.
  • Summary: Following the introduction of a new survey boat, cod quotas were dramatically cut, leading to massive economic shock for fishermen. When cod was caught as a ‘choke species’ after a boat used up its small quota, fishermen faced three options: buy expensive quota, or illegally discard the excess cod overboard. Discarding fish resulted in pure waste, as the stressed fish often died, killing the very species the regulations aimed to conserve.
Codfather’s Fraudulent Solution
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(00:28:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Carlos Rafael’s third option was to commit fraud by ‘painting the fish,’ misreporting low-quota cod and sole as high-quota haddock throughout the supply chain.
  • Summary: Rafael avoided the quota restrictions by bringing undocumented fish ashore and falsifying paperwork to label them as haddock, a species with a higher quota. His success was due to vertical integration, controlling the process from the ocean catch to the processing plant, allowing him to control the paperwork at every stage. He openly admitted to the undercover agents that the more rules imposed, the more colors he would paint the fish.
Deep Mistrust and Accountability
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(00:32:31)
  • Key Takeaway: The widespread ambivalence toward Rafael’s crimes stems from a deep, generational mistrust of government science, suggesting that scientific data alone cannot overcome community skepticism.
  • Summary: Many people in the industry expressed sympathy for Rafael, viewing him as a necessary hero who kept people employed despite questionable science. This situation highlights a breakdown of trust where fishermen, with their intense lived experience at sea, feel their knowledge is ignored by scientists using different methodologies. Overcoming this requires incorporating the fishermen’s worldview rather than just presenting data to prove the science is right.