Shawn Ryan Show

#289 Michael Lester - Is the United States Going to War with Iran For Israel?

March 19, 2026

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  • The current conflict with Iran is framed by the guest as being driven by Israeli influence and lobbying, rather than an imminent threat to the United States, evidenced by the resignation statement of Joe Kent. 
  • The historical relationship between the U.S. and Iran is rooted in a 1953 CIA/MI6 orchestrated coup against the democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh, which installed the Shah and led to decades of animosity. 
  • The stated U.S. goals for the conflict, particularly the aim to 'ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon,' effectively commit the U.S. to a 'forever war' because this goal is never definitively achievable. 
  • The speaker believes the US Empire will eventually end, hoping it pulls back to being a strong country rather than collapsing entirely, citing current global conflicts (Ukraine, Venezuela, Gaza, Iran, Taiwan, Cuba) as evidence of overextension. 
  • A major economic threat to the US is the potential loss of the US dollar as the global standard for oil trade (the petrodollar system), which is being challenged by BRICS nations seeking alternative trading units. 
  • The speaker argues that regime change in foreign nations, particularly Iran, is historically ineffective and counterproductive, pointing to the US's own history and the Iranian perspective that US intervention is worse than the current government. 
  • The US Senate voted overwhelmingly (72 to 11) against even investigating whether Israel is violating human rights, which, under the Leahy Act, should halt US arms transfers. 
  • The Electoral College is rooted in a compromise over slavery (the three-fifths compromise) and results in votes in smaller states like Wyoming counting significantly more than votes in larger states like California. 
  • Current geopolitical events, particularly US involvement in the Middle East, risk depleting US military capability, potentially creating an opening for China to act against Taiwan, similar to how pre-WWI mobilization plans became unstoppable once set in motion (The Guns of August analogy). 

Segments

Introduction and War Context
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(00:00:00)
  • Key Takeaway: The episode immediately frames the discussion around the recent commencement of hostilities, Operation Epic Fury, and the potential for U.S. war with Iran driven by Israeli interests.
  • Summary: The episode opens with advertisements before introducing Michael Lester, noting his return to discuss the escalating geopolitical tensions. The host explicitly links the current situation to the themes in Lester’s book, We Are the Bad Guys, focusing on the possibility of U.S. involvement in a war with Iran due to Israeli influence.
Joe Kent Resignation Analysis
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(00:04:58)
  • Key Takeaway: Joe Kent resigned as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center citing his inability to support the Iran war, which he explicitly attributed to pressure from Israel and its American lobby.
  • Summary: The host reads excerpts from Joe Kent’s resignation letter, highlighting his conscience-driven decision to step down over the war in Iran. Kent stated the war was manufactured due to Israeli pressure and served no benefit to the American people, referencing his personal loss in a previous war linked to Israel.
Lindsey Graham’s Influence
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(00:07:10)
  • Key Takeaway: Senator Lindsey Graham’s direct lobbying of Israeli leaders and coaching Netanyahu on how to influence the U.S. President is presented as potentially treasonous behavior.
  • Summary: Evidence from a Wall Street Journal article is cited showing Senator Graham traveled to Israel, met with intelligence agencies, and coached Prime Minister Netanyahu on lobbying the U.S. President. The host argues that a U.S. Senator mentoring a foreign leader on how to lobby the American President for that foreign country’s benefit is an unacceptable breach of conduct.
Public Apathy and Information Sources
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(00:11:22)
  • Key Takeaway: The American public is divided into groups: those actively against the war, those apathetic and unwilling to engage with difficult truths like the Epstein files, and those misinformed by highly curated, single-source news organizations.
  • Summary: The guest suggests that while informed people oppose the current actions, a large segment of the population is apathetic or actively avoids uncomfortable information. He notes that many rely exclusively on partisan news sources, preventing them from seeing the full context of geopolitical events.
War Declaration Nuances
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(00:14:08)
  • Key Takeaway: The technical distinction between being ‘at war’ and engaging in conflict has severe, unfair consequences for service members regarding benefits and life insurance payouts.
  • Summary: The host points out that if the conflict is not officially declared a ‘war,’ service members injured or killed may be denied crucial benefits, such as life insurance payouts, which often exclude acts of war or aggression by the U.S.
Presidential Term Limits Trivia
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(00:16:47)
  • Key Takeaway: The maximum legal service time for a U.S. President is 12 years, achievable if a Vice President assumes the presidency mid-term and then wins two subsequent elections, or if a former President runs as VP and the sitting President resigns.
  • Summary: The discussion shifts to political hypotheticals, explaining that the 22nd Amendment limits election wins to two, not total time served. A scenario is detailed where a former President could legally serve a third term by running as Vice President and assuming the presidency after the elected President resigns shortly after inauguration.
Iran War Goals Analysis
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(00:41:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Three of the four stated U.S. goals for engaging Iran—destroying its missile program, annihilating its Navy, and severing proxy ties—primarily benefit Israel, while the fourth goal, ensuring no nuclear weapons, guarantees a perpetual conflict.
  • Summary: The guest outlines the four objectives for the conflict, noting that the first three are measurable but serve Israeli security interests rather than direct U.S. defense needs. The final goal regarding nuclear weapons is inherently open-ended, locking the U.S. into an indefinite military presence in the region.
Economic Fallout and Oil Supply
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(00:44:38)
  • Key Takeaway: The conflict has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel, forcing countries, including the U.S., to deplete strategic reserves, threatening the economic stability of wealthy Middle Eastern nations that rely on investment income.
  • Summary: The rising oil price is noted as a major economic consequence, impacting global trade and causing anger across the Middle East, with nations like the UAE potentially facing economic collapse if their business hubs become unsafe. Releasing strategic reserves provides only a temporary cushion against supply uncertainty.
Military Cost and Drone Warfare Economics
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(00:53:33)
  • Key Takeaway: Iran’s investment in low-cost drones (costing $20k-$35k) forces the U.S. to expend highly expensive Patriot missiles (costing $4 million each), creating a 200-to-1 economic imbalance that favors Iran’s attrition strategy.
  • Summary: The discussion highlights Iran’s strategic investment in asymmetric warfare technology, specifically drones, which are highly cost-effective compared to U.S. defensive munitions. The initial week of the war reportedly cost the U.S. $4 billion in munitions, benefiting the military industrial complex but offering no tangible benefit to the American public.
Iranian History and U.S. Involvement
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(01:01:35)
  • Key Takeaway: Iran’s current anti-American sentiment is largely a reaction to the U.S. orchestrating the 1953 coup that overthrew the democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh to secure oil concessions for the U.S. and Great Britain.
  • Summary: The guest details how Iran (formerly Persia) was once the U.S.’s primary Middle Eastern ally until the U.S. and MI6 installed the Shah in 1953 after Mossadegh nationalized oil. This U.S. interference fueled the 1979 revolution, leading to the current religious leadership and deep-seated distrust of American motives.
US Empire Trajectory
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(01:14:18)
  • Key Takeaway: The US Empire, like Great Britain and Rome, will eventually end, and the critical question is whether it ends by strategically pulling back or by collapsing completely.
  • Summary: Historical empires, such as Pax Britannica and the Roman Empire, eventually declined or imploded, setting a precedent for the US Empire’s eventual end. The speaker hopes the US has the intelligence to transition into a strong country without maintaining an imperial structure. Current global conflicts suggest the US is heavily involved, making a simple withdrawal difficult.
Global Conflict Overload
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(01:15:55)
  • Key Takeaway: The US is currently involved in numerous global conflicts, including Ukraine, Venezuela, Gaza, Iran, and Taiwan, with new areas like Cuba being mentioned shortly after.
  • Summary: The speaker lists several active or potential conflict zones the US is entangled in, highlighting the breadth of current foreign commitments. The rapid succession of these issues, such as mentioning Cuba only three weeks into the Iran conflict, suggests a pattern of overextension. This involvement is contrasted with the hope for the US to focus internally.
Dollar Devaluation Risk
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(01:16:52)
  • Key Takeaway: If the GCC countries cease trading oil in US dollars, the dollar’s value, which is currently backed only by collective belief, could plummet, severely impacting US retirement savings and purchasing power.
  • Summary: The US dollar’s value relies on the global agreement that it is worth something, especially since it is no longer gold-backed. Agreements, like those with Saudi Arabia mentioned in Confessions of an Economic Hitman, mandated oil trade in dollars, artificially sustaining its value. If major oil traders defect, the dollar could rapidly devalue, leading to a potential global depression.
Geopolitical Strategy Questioned
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(01:23:22)
  • Key Takeaway: The speaker questions whether recent global actions, including events in Venezuela and Iran, are part of a coordinated, albeit hidden, plan to contain China’s energy access.
  • Summary: The possibility is raised that recent military actions are not random but orchestrated to disrupt China, which relies heavily on oil from the Strait of Hormuz. However, the speaker notes that such a strategy might backfire, as the US consumes more oil per capita than China, and conflict could accelerate China’s pivot to nuclear capabilities. The overall conclusion is that there is likely no grand, positive plan visible to the public.
Critique of Regime Change
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(01:29:51)
  • Key Takeaway: Regime change is an ineffective and historically disastrous foreign policy goal, as demonstrated by the revolving door of leadership replacements in Afghanistan and the failed 1953 installation of the Shah in Iran.
  • Summary: The stated objectives for conflict in Iran (stopping missiles, preventing proliferation, destroying the navy, stopping proxy funding) do not necessitate regime change, which is a goal that has consistently failed. Forcibly changing a government should be called what it is, and historical precedent shows that installing US puppets ultimately leads to worse outcomes. The better approach involves respectful negotiation and shared resource agreements.
Iranian Public Viewpoint
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(01:34:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Contrary to the narrative often presented in US news, some Iranians are unhappy with their government but actively oppose US military intervention, fearing the aftermath of American involvement.
  • Summary: The speaker references an Iranian article suggesting that while citizens dislike their government, they fear US intervention more, having witnessed the outcomes in other countries. This contrasts with the media portrayal of oppressed citizens eagerly awaiting foreign liberation. The existence of social media showing Iranian youth enjoying modern life suggests a cognitive dissonance with official news reports.
Israeli Influence on US Policy
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(01:48:46)
  • Key Takeaway: US support for Israel is driven by powerful lobbying groups like APAC and the United Democracy Project, alongside the significant voting bloc of Christian Zionists who believe supporting Israel is a divine mandate.
  • Summary: Lobbying efforts include the American Israeli Education Foundation funding all-expense-paid trips for Congress members to Israel, ensuring pro-Israel alignment among legislators. Furthermore, Christian Zionists, comprising about 25% of the US population, heavily influence politicians like Ted Cruz and Joe Biden due to their belief that Jewish control of Jerusalem is necessary for the Second Coming, as interpreted through the influential 1909 Schofield Bible.
Congressional Abdication of War Powers
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(02:32:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Congress has abdicated its constitutional duty to declare war by voting against invoking the War Powers Act following the US attack on Iran, allowing the President unilateral authority.
  • Summary: The War Powers Act mandates that the President must report to Congress within 48 hours for any military engagement not involving a declaration of war or direct attack on the US. Congress recently voted overwhelmingly against invoking this act regarding the Iran strikes, effectively surrendering their constitutional check on executive war-making power. This failure to hold the President accountable undermines the system of checks and balances.
Leahy Act Violation Allegations
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(02:32:54)
  • Key Takeaway: The Senate refused to even investigate allegations that Israel is violating human rights, which, if proven, would legally require the US to halt all weapons transfers under the Leahy Act.
  • Summary: The Leahy Act prohibits the US from providing military aid or arms to any foreign entity found to be violating human rights. Given the genocide charges leveled against Israel by multiple countries, a Senate bill was introduced merely to investigate these claims. The Senate voted 72 to 11 against initiating this investigation, suggesting an unwillingness to confront findings that would necessitate stopping weapons transfers.
Leahy Act and Israel Funding
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(02:32:49)
  • Key Takeaway: The Leahy Act prohibits selling arms to countries violating human rights, yet the Senate refused to investigate Israel despite genocide charges.
  • Summary: The Leahy Act makes it illegal to sell munitions to any group or country violating human rights. Israel has faced genocide charges from multiple countries, yet the Senate voted 72 to 11 against even investigating these potential violations. Failure to investigate means the US avoids having to stop weapon transfers and payments to Israel.
Fixing American Governance
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(02:34:56)
  • Key Takeaway: Systemic change requires both constitutional amendments and immediate actions like joining the Popular Vote Compact.
  • Summary: Michael Lester is developing a second book outlining 19 points for necessary change, categorized by difficulty. One proposed immediate change is eliminating the Electoral College via the Popular Vote Compact, an agreement where states pledge their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner. Lester cites scholars like John Mearsheimer whose critical analyses are being drowned out by propaganda.
Electoral College History and Impact
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(02:37:07)
  • Key Takeaway: The Electoral College originated as a compromise during the Constitutional Convention based on counting enslaved people as three-fifths of a person.
  • Summary: The Electoral College was established as a compromise between Northern and Southern states regarding voting power, specifically incorporating the three-fifths compromise for enslaved populations. This system leads to undemocratic outcomes where a vote in a low-population state like Wyoming counts 15 times more than a vote in California. This disparity forces presidential campaigns to focus only on ‘swing states’ that hold disproportionate electoral weight.
Citizen Action and Political Influence
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(02:44:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Citizens must actively track foreign influence, such as PAC funding, and use physical letters to bypass digital aggregation of constituent feedback.
  • Summary: Voters should use tools like APAC Tracker to see which candidates receive funding from foreign entities like AIPAC, as this dictates who the representative will serve. Physical letters are suggested over emails to ensure representatives manually process constituent opinions, as emails are often aggregated without individual review. Citizens must hold representatives accountable for upholding American values rather than succumbing to foreign influence.
Military Disillusionment and Draft Concerns
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(02:49:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Younger generations are less willing to serve in a military deployed for foreign interests that do not directly support American life or beliefs.
  • Summary: The speaker believes military recruitment suffers when service members are sent on missions that do not clearly benefit the US way of life, citing personal disillusionment in the Gulf War. The possibility of a draft is questioned, especially given low current recruitment numbers and the public’s skepticism regarding foreign interventions. Young people are increasingly aware of how overseas conflicts negatively impact domestic issues like pocketbook economics.
Resignation vs. Being Fired
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(02:52:30)
  • Key Takeaway: In the current political climate, resigning on principle, like Joe Kent did, is often more powerful than staying to fight and being fired.
  • Summary: Resigning for principle allows an individual to control the initial narrative, whereas being fired often results in the narrative being dominated by the person who initiated the termination (e.g., the President). While fighting from within is laudable, a resignation provides a clear, self-sacrificial statement that garners public attention. The speaker notes that politicians generally suffer from extremely low public trust ratings (around 7-10%).
Navigating Online Misinformation
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(02:58:10)
  • Key Takeaway: Bandolini’s Law states that refuting nonsense requires twice the effort it took to post it, making engagement with bots and trolls counterproductive.
  • Summary: When engaging with false posts online, the effort required to refute them is significantly higher than the effort needed to create the initial falsehood. This dynamic is exploited by actors, potentially including Israeli bots, who aim to tie up critics in endless refutations so they cannot focus on other actions. The principle advises against wrestling with pigs because one only gets dirty while the pig enjoys the interaction.
Israel-China Alliance Potential
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(03:00:20)
  • Key Takeaway: An alliance between Israel and China is unlikely because Israel’s influence over the US relies on exploiting American governmental freedoms, which China’s system does not allow.
  • Summary: Israel’s strong alliance with the US is predicated on its ability to influence US government systems due to American freedoms, which China lacks. China and Russia are currently sharing intelligence and imagery with Iran, making a formal Israeli-Sino agreement counterintuitive. China would likely avoid overt alliance with Iran as it would constitute a de facto war against America, preferring subtle support.
1913 vs. 1939 Conflict Analogy
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(03:02:48)
  • Key Takeaway: The current situation is closer to 1913 than 1939 because interconnected obligations and pre-planned military mobilizations create an unstoppable domino effect, regardless of diplomatic efforts.
  • Summary: Focusing on 1939 (defined villain, territorial expansion goals) obscures the current reality; the situation mirrors 1913 where interconnected European defense obligations triggered a massive war from a single event. Once military mobilization begins, as seen with NATO agreements involving Turkey, Bahrain, and Kuwait being attacked by Iran, the process becomes irreversible, overriding last-minute peace agreements. The danger lies in the hubris that conflicts will remain quick and contained, as seen with Germany’s Schlieffen Plan.
US Military Readiness Concerns
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(03:23:28)
  • Key Takeaway: Political decisions regarding budget allocation led to critical shortages in ammunition and engine spares during the Gulf War, threatening combat effectiveness.
  • Summary: During the Gulf War, the speaker witnessed the US military being sent into combat with limited small arms ammunition because funds were diverted to cover cost overruns on ‘Star Wars’ technology programs. Turbine engine degradation due to fine desert sand caused frequent compressor stalls, yet spare engines were unavailable due to years of under-stockpiling ammunition and parts. This highlights how political financial decisions directly degrade warfighting capability and citizen safety.
China Exploiting Middle East Focus
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(03:19:25)
  • Key Takeaway: China is likely exploiting US military focus on the Middle East to normalize military pressure on Taiwan using gray zone tactics while the US is resource-strained.
  • Summary: The US currently has three carriers deployed, two in the Gulf region, stretching its force projection capabilities globally. China can allow the US to deplete its warfighting resources in the Middle East, making it harder for the US to rapidly respond to a Taiwan contingency later. This strategy aligns with Xi Jinping’s stated goal of taking Taiwan by 2027, leveraging the current crisis as a distraction.
Ironclad Family Security Services
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(03:38:40)
  • Key Takeaway: Ironclad Family provides ultra-secure digital vaults using zero-knowledge end-to-end encryption to ensure critical personal and financial data is delivered only upon validation of the owner’s incapacitation.
  • Summary: The company uses a process where data is encrypted locally on the user’s computer before being sent to their servers, meaning Ironclad Family cannot access the clear text information. Validation of the owner’s status involves automated checks followed by human contact before encrypted files and decryption keys are released to designated recipients. Vault contents range from wills and birth certificates to final messages for children, protecting assets like cryptocurrency from being lost upon death.
Data Security App Development
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(03:48:02)
  • Key Takeaway: A new application is being built to secure approximately 99% of user phone data from being extracted.
  • Summary: The application aims to prevent data siphoning, contrasting with the perceived insecurity of standard American VPNs. The speaker performs monthly factory resets due to the volume of unknown software loaded onto phones. A beta version of this application is currently available for testing.
Burner Number Service Launch
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(03:48:42)
  • Key Takeaway: A burner number service is offered, allowing users to obtain temporary numbers with any area code for sensitive interactions like hotel bookings or political discussions.
  • Summary: This service addresses concerns about personal numbers being compromised after one-time uses, preventing subsequent spam texts and emails. The speaker expressed concern over reports that Signal may have provided text message data to external parties, undermining its secure reputation. The burner number service is expected to cost $14.99 per month, with numbers purchased separately.
Product Pricing and Future Plans
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(03:50:08)
  • Key Takeaway: The annual pricing for the main security system is set at a reasonable $189 per year because the product is based on computer code rather than physical machinery.
  • Summary: The host immediately agreed to test the beta version, and the speaker offered to set up a complimentary account for review. They planned to dedicate a full segment in a future episode to promote the company’s offerings, moving the discussion from the tail end of the interview to the front. The host humorously suggested co-writing a book with Michael Lester titled “It Ain’t Necessarily So” based on their shared skepticism.
Podcast Promotion and Sponsor Read
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(03:52:11)
  • Key Takeaway: Listeners are strongly urged to engage with the Shawn Ryan Show content by liking, commenting, subscribing, sharing widely, and leaving reviews on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
  • Summary: Dry air can begin harming skin in as little as 30 minutes, necessitating the use of humidifiers for healthy skin and wellness. The Canopy Humidifier is recommended by dermatologists as a sleek, easy-to-clean alternative to traditional, mold-prone models. Listeners can save $25 on a Canopy Humidifier purchase at getcanopy.co, plus an additional 10% off using the code ‘Podcast’ at checkout.