Shawn Ryan Show

#281 Jeremy Slate - The Fatal Decisions That Doomed the Entire Roman Empire

February 19, 2026

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  • Societal collapse, as seen in the Roman Empire, follows a predictable pattern involving the mismanagement of currency (inflation), porous border control, and short-sighted political decision-making. 
  • Roman history, like modern history, is heavily influenced by the power structure of the time, meaning historical accounts often serve as propaganda to protect those in authority. 
  • The Crisis of the Third Century, marked by transactional military loyalties, rapid emperor turnover, and the devaluation of citizenship, was a more pivotal period in Rome's decline than the commonly cited fall in the fifth century. 
  • The disintegration of the Roman Republic into Empire was driven by internal political conflict, the breakdown of norms (like term limits and office requirements), and the creation of an environment where powerful individuals like Julius Caesar felt they had no choice but to seize power. 
  • The Roman Empire's decline involved recurring patterns of monetary debasement leading to massive inflation (up to 15,000% by the 280s), which destroyed trust in currency and fueled black markets, mirroring concerns about modern economic stability. 
  • The Roman system's reliance on an unwritten, tradition-based constitution meant that once norms were broken by ambitious figures like Marius and Sulla, the system became highly susceptible to collapse under crisis, leading to the centralization of power in the executive/military (culminating in the Praetorian Guard's influence). 
  • Addressing modern societal decay requires focusing on bringing industry back, stabilizing currency (potentially via precious metals), and fundamentally reforming education to emphasize practical skills and apprenticeships. 
  • The Roman Empire's expansion was highly strategic, driven by the need to secure vital resources like grain (Egypt/Asia) and minerals (Dacia's silver mines), rather than merely acquiring land. 
  • The collapse of the Roman Empire was likely a gradual fade away, where the average citizen noticed the loss of functional civilization (like infrastructure maintenance) before recognizing a formal political end date. 

Segments

Host and Guest Connection
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(00:00:50)
  • Key Takeaway: The host and guest connected through social media commentary comparing current events to the fall of Rome.
  • Summary: The host and guest discovered each other after the guest wrote a thread on X (formerly Twitter) relating the fall of Rome to contemporary issues like government fraud, waste, and abuse. This connection was established through the guest’s analysis of the host’s pinned post on the current socio-political scene. Both recognized the recurring patterns in societal collapse.
Inflation and Fiat Currency
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(00:02:25)
  • Key Takeaway: Inflation is fundamentally the dollar’s decreasing purchasing power, evidenced by gold prices rising significantly faster than historical norms since the US left the gold standard.
  • Summary: The discussion highlighted that rising prices are a symptom of the dollar’s reduced value, not necessarily the intrinsic value increase of goods. Since leaving the gold standard, the money supply (M2) has seen 80% printed since COVID, illustrating massive quantitative easing. Gold’s rapid price increase from $2,000 to $5,000 an ounce in a few years demonstrates the dollar has lost approximately 2.5 times its value relative to gold over six years.
Roman Christianity and Persecution
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(00:07:41)
  • Key Takeaway: Early Roman authorities initially viewed Christianity as a minor Jewish sect, only persecuting Christians when societal distress (like climate change or disaster) led emperors to enforce the ‘peace of the gods.’
  • Summary: Initially, Romans struggled to distinguish Christianity from Judaism, viewing it as a small sect, and Roman historians rarely mentioned Christ. Persecutions, such as those under Nero (64 AD) and Decius (250/251 AD), were triggered when emperors sought scapegoats to restore the perceived ‘peace of the gods’ during times of crisis. Constantine legalized Christianity with the Edict of Milan in 313 AD, and it became the official religion under Theodosius in 380 AD.
Roman Empire Timeline and Structure
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(00:24:14)
  • Key Takeaway: The Roman Empire’s history spans nearly 2,000 years, evolving from a Kingdom (753 BC) to an Oligarchic Republic (509 BC) before becoming an Empire (31 BC).
  • Summary: The Kingdom phase ended in 509 BC due to the populace’s hatred of kingship following the actions of Tarquin the Proud. The Republic phase was effectively an oligarchy where the richest 10% controlled 90% of the vote. The Imperial period, which began in 31 BC, saw the Western Empire fall in 476 AD, while the Eastern (Byzantine) Empire continued until 1453 AD.
Historical Accuracy and Bias
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(00:27:21)
  • Key Takeaway: Ancient historical accounts must be critically assessed based on the writer’s contemporary power structure, as literacy rates were low and writers often tailored narratives to appease emperors.
  • Summary: The reliability of Roman history is limited by missing primary sources, such as those lost in the burning of the Library of Alexandria. Emperor Augustus commissioned literature, like the Aeneid and Livy’s histories, to promote the vision of a restored Republic, demonstrating historical curation. Historians writing under emperors like Nero often provided glowing accounts while alive, only for negative records to surface after the emperor’s death.
The Downfall Spark: Commodus
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(00:39:17)
  • Key Takeaway: The adoption of qualified successors by the ‘Five Good Emperors’ ended when Marcus Aurelius named his unqualified natural son, Commodus, as emperor, marking the true beginning of the empire’s disintegration.
  • Summary: The period from 93 AD to 180 AD, known as the Pax Romana, was characterized by emperors adopting the most qualified successor rather than relying on heredity. Marcus Aurelius broke this tradition by naming his son Commodus, whom he knew was unqualified, to avoid civil war. Gibbon cited this transition as the point where Rome moved ‘from a society of marble to one of steel and rust.’
Crisis of the Third Century
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(00:41:44)
  • Key Takeaway: The assassination of Pertinax led to the Praetorian Guard auctioning the emperorship, initiating the era of Barracks Emperors whose loyalty was transactional, fueling massive inflation.
  • Summary: Following Commodus’s death, the Praetorian Guard auctioned the emperorship, leading to a ‘year of five emperors’ until Septimius Severus took control and doubled legionary pay. This practice of large military bonuses (donatives) became standard, causing inflation to reach 15,000% by 284 AD, reducing silver coinage to only 5% purity. This period saw the rise of Barracks Emperors, whose power derived solely from military backing rather than political office.
Immigration and Citizenship Value
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(00:53:52)
  • Key Takeaway: Roman citizenship held immense value as a pathway to advancement until Emperor Caracalla devalued it overnight by granting it to 30 million people to access their inheritance and death taxes.
  • Summary: Initially, non-Romans sought citizenship through military service (25 years) because it conferred valuable rights, such as the ability to appeal directly to the emperor, as seen with St. Paul. The Gracchi brothers’ grain dole further increased the value of citizenship by guaranteeing food for citizens. In 212 AD, Caracalla bankrupted the treasury and issued the Edict of Caracalla, massively expanding citizenship primarily to collect taxes, thereby eroding its inherent worth.
Roman Empire’s 3rd Century Collapse
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(00:58:52)
  • Key Takeaway: Internal political fighting and propaganda wars in the 3rd century distracted Roman leadership, leading to uncontrolled border breaches and mass immigration.
  • Summary: During the third century, Rome experienced disintegration as internal political fighting mirrored modern partisan conflict, causing leaders to neglect border security. This distraction allowed tribes to pour across the borders, exacerbating existing problems. The influx of people motivated by material benefits, rather than loyalty, created societal strain and inflation.
Republic to Empire Timeline
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(01:01:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The transition from the Roman Republic to Empire was a gradual process spanning a century, marked by key figures breaking established political norms.
  • Summary: Rome traditionally progressed from Kingdom to Republic, with the Republic’s final century characterized by the ‘Roman Revolution’ as described by Ronald Syme. Figures like the Gracchi brothers, Marius, and Sulla initiated the breakdown of military and political traditions. Sulla’s unprecedented actions, such as marching on Rome and holding the dictatorship for four years, set dangerous precedents.
Caesar’s Rise and Political Pressure
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(01:06:26)
  • Key Takeaway: Julius Caesar’s path to supreme power was catalyzed by political maneuvering, specifically Cato the Younger’s relentless obstruction and the threat of prosecution upon returning to Rome.
  • Summary: Julius Caesar survived Sulla’s proscriptions due to his mother’s influence, later taking the consulship in 59 BC alongside Marcus Bibulus, who was effectively sidelined. Cato the Younger’s opposition forced Caesar into a position where returning to Rome meant certain arrest, leading him to cross the Rubicon in 49 BC. This act of civil war resulted in the flight of his opponents and Caesar gaining control of the city.
Transition to Empire and Augustus
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(01:11:14)
  • Key Takeaway: The Roman Empire was not established by a single coup but resulted from a century of civil war, culminating in Augustus being formally asked by the Senate to retain power after bringing peace.
  • Summary: Caesar was named dictator and later dictator for life, echoing the hated title of King, leading to his assassination by Brutus and Cassius, who felt a duty to prevent monarchy. Augustus emerged after 100 years of civil war, bringing peace, and then ostensibly retired, only for the Senate to demand he stay, granting him the title Augustus.
Modern Republic Erosion
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(1913)
  • Key Takeaway: The year 1913 marked a pivotal shift away from the American Republic through the establishment of the Federal Reserve, the income tax (16th Amendment), and the direct election of Senators (17th Amendment).
  • Summary: The Federal Reserve Act was passed over Christmas break, establishing a central bank cartel owned by member banks. Simultaneously, the 16th Amendment introduced the income tax to fund this new structure. The 17th Amendment shifted Senate selection from state legislatures to popular vote, aligning the Senate’s representation method with the House and reducing state influence.
Imperial Presidency and Executive Overreach
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(01:15:48)
  • Key Takeaway: Executive power has dramatically outweighed the other branches of government, particularly since FDR’s New Deal, with modern presidents increasingly ruling by executive order, which constitutes a form of mandate dictatorship.
  • Summary: FDR’s four-term presidency and reliance on executive orders significantly expanded executive authority beyond constitutional norms. This trend of ruling by mandate, rather than legislation, has continued across subsequent administrations, including Trump’s. Woodrow Wilson’s Alien and Sedition Acts during WWI also demonstrated an early crisis-driven expansion of executive control over speech.
Monetary Collapse and Black Markets
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(01:20:33)
  • Key Takeaway: The Roman Empire’s monetary crisis involved the physical debasement of coinage (silver becoming bronze), causing people to hoard gold and revert to barter systems, breaking down trade.
  • Summary: The loss of trust in Roman currency was tangible, as citizens could see the poor quality of the debased coins. This led to the rise of black markets where people traded goods directly, bypassing official currency. Hoarding of precious metals like gold occurred because the official silver coinage was known to have little intrinsic value.
Constitutional Tradition and Office Norms
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(01:23:02)
  • Key Takeaway: Rome operated on an unwritten, tradition-based constitution, which held for centuries until figures like Gaius Marius deliberately broke established norms regarding term limits and the required sequence of political offices (Cursus Honorum).
  • Summary: The Roman Constitution was oral, relying heavily on tradition, though the Twelve Tables provided basic laws for the early Republic. The Cursus Honorum dictated the required sequence of offices before one could become Consul, ensuring seasoned politicians held power. Pompey the Great became Consul without holding the prerequisite offices, demonstrating the initial erosion of these traditional checks.
Emperor Power and Praetorian Guard
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(01:26:13)
  • Key Takeaway: Once emperors held power for life, the Praetorian Guard—the emperor’s personal bodyguard—became the ultimate power broker, capable of assassinating rulers (like Caligula) based on political positioning rather than the will of the people.
  • Summary: The shift to lifetime rule meant that a bad emperor could remain in power until death or assassination, making the Praetorian Guard crucial as they were close to the source of power. The Guard acted as a shadow government, removing emperors like Caligula when their rule threatened the Guard’s future positioning. They were selected by the Emperor, and their loyalty was to political advantage, not necessarily the populace.
Roman Daily Life and Sanitation
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(01:32:26)
  • Key Takeaway: The daily life of the average Roman citizen in the later empire was dominated by basic survival, characterized by squalor in tenement buildings (insulae) where sanitation was poor, leading to streets filled with waste.
  • Summary: For the common people, life was focused on survival, dealing with issues like flooding from the Tiber River and disease. They lived in massive apartment buildings called insulae, which lacked proper sanitation for all residents. Citizens often dumped chamber pots into the streets, necessitating the use of litters to avoid stepping in excrement and urine.
Crisis Management Becomes Permanent
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(01:34:25)
  • Key Takeaway: Rome’s tendency to alter its oral constitution to handle immediate crises, such as the 9/11-era Patriot Act in the US, resulted in those emergency measures becoming permanent fixtures that fundamentally changed society.
  • Summary: When crises arose, Rome would temporarily alter its traditions to cope, but these changes rarely reverted once the immediate threat passed. Emperors in the 3rd century, facing short reigns, focused only on immediate survival, leading to dramatic, long-term shifts in governance, such as military control becoming the primary basis for emperorship.
Diocletian’s Late Empire Reforms
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(01:39:37)
  • Key Takeaway: Diocletian attempted to stabilize the late Empire by creating the Tetrarchy (rule by four), dividing administration into military dioceses, and locking social positions, inadvertently laying the groundwork for the Middle Ages.
  • Summary: Diocletian divided the empire into administrative units called dioceses, appointing military leaders (dukes) and border commanders (comites/counts) to stabilize the frontiers. He instituted the Tetrarchy to manage the vast territory, but his price controls fueled the black market, and locking professions (like farming) to fathers’ trades began resembling feudal structures.
Constantine’s Successful Stabilization
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(01:43:12)
  • Key Takeaway: Constantine successfully stabilized the Eastern Empire by implementing monetary reform (gold standard) and leveraging Christianity as a cohesive spiritual and political force.
  • Summary: Constantine’s successful reforms contrasted with Diocletian’s, focusing first on monetary stability by returning to a gold standard, which greatly aided the East. He recognized the need for societal cohesion and strategically promoted Christianity, which was a minor religion at the time, into a unifying element for the empire.
Defining Roman Immigrants
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(01:47:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Defining a Roman immigrant is difficult because the empire was cosmopolitan, with emperors born in Spain and North Africa; the distinction shifted in the 3rd century to refer to non-assimilating peoples living near the borders.
  • Summary: Early in its history, Rome offered pathways to citizenship and high office for conquered peoples, exemplified by emperors born outside Italy like Hadrian (Spain) and Septimius Severus (North Africa). The nature of ‘immigration’ changed in the 3rd century when the military needed more men, and groups like the Goths began living within the borders without fully integrating into Roman culture.
Declining Birth Rates and Cultural Loss
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(01:53:57)
  • Key Takeaway: Declining birth rates among the wealthy elite were an early Roman problem under Augustus, and this demographic shift, combined with massive cultural influx, led to a loss of the shared ethos that held the civilization together.
  • Summary: Augustus attempted to legislate against the trend of rich Romans ceasing to have children, indicating this was an early imperial concern. Low birth rates, coupled with high infant mortality, necessitated continuous recruitment from outside the core population. When a new culture overwhelms the original, the shared cultural glue dissolves, leaving only the pursuit of money and power.
Loss of Legitimacy and Political Disconnect
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(01:57:46)
  • Key Takeaway: The final centuries of the Western Roman Empire saw emperors lose legitimacy because they became completely disconnected from the populace, prioritizing personal interests (like Emperor Honorius and his chickens) over governance.
  • Summary: In the late Western Roman Empire, emperors were often figureheads controlled by barbarian generals, demonstrating a complete lack of popular legitimacy. Emperor Honorius famously prioritized raising chickens over addressing the sack of Rome, illustrating the ruling class’s indifference to the people they were supposed to protect. This separation between decision-makers and the governed became a critical failure point.
Path to Modern Recovery
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(01:59:08)
  • Key Takeaway: Fixing modern economic decline requires restoring meaning to currency, bringing industry back to the US, and fundamentally reforming education to emphasize practical skills and apprenticeships.
  • Summary: The primary solution discussed for modern issues is fixing the currency, which necessitates money having intrinsic value again, possibly through a precious metals standard. Rebuilding industry and manufacturing capacity is crucial, as the US has become overly reliant on services. Furthermore, education must shift focus from debt-laden, non-utilitarian degrees toward trades and apprenticeship models.
Economic Revival Needs Industry
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(02:00:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Revitalizing the Rust Belt requires bringing back domestic industry and manufacturing capabilities.
  • Summary: The Rust Belt’s hollowing out necessitates bringing industry back so the nation can produce tangible goods again. Control over currency is also vital, suggesting a need to base money on something tangible, like precious metals, though returning to gold might be too ambitious now. A major missing component is education, which is currently producing graduates with debt but lacking practical, useful skills.
Value of Apprenticeships
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(02:01:13)
  • Key Takeaway: The historical apprenticeship model is crucial for providing necessary experience and helping individuals confirm vocational suitability.
  • Summary: The trades still utilize apprenticeships, a system that was common before the 1900s. This model serves two purposes: providing direct experience and allowing the apprentice to determine if they are suited for the work. Without fixing education and restoring this know-how, societies risk losing the ability to maintain complex systems, similar to how the Romans lost the knowledge to maintain aqueducts.
Modern Production vs. Manufacturing
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(02:02:09)
  • Key Takeaway: The US still produces significant value through technology and software, but lacks essential physical manufacturing autonomy.
  • Summary: While the narrative that the US makes nothing is false—as the country excels in tech and software—the critical issue is the loss of production and manufacturing in many small towns. This decline leads to economic degradation, increased drug issues, and reliance on foreign sources like Mexico for essential goods like automobiles. Autonomy is gained by bringing manufacturing back.
Roman Conquest Strategy
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(02:04:01)
  • Key Takeaway: Roman expansion was highly strategic, targeting locations rich in essential resources like grain and precious metals.
  • Summary: Roman expansion was not random; it focused on securing strategic resources necessary to sustain the empire. For instance, Egypt and Asia were conquered because they were the best grain-growing regions, feeding Rome’s large population. The conquest of Dacia under Trajan was motivated by the presence of silver mines, demonstrating a clear focus on resource acquisition.
Parallels to Roman Collapse
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(02:05:52)
  • Key Takeaway: Current political dysfunction prevents fixing core issues like currency and borders, mirroring systemic failures that precede empire decline.
  • Summary: Key issues mirroring Roman decline include the inability to handle currency, fix borders, and a lack of political care. Electoral politics has devolved into team loyalty, preventing necessary fixes for the economy and infrastructure. The Roman Empire’s collapse was a slow fade rather than a sudden event, making it difficult for contemporaries to pinpoint the exact moment civilization ended.
Identifying Tyranny and Fall
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(02:07:17)
  • Key Takeaway: Identifying the onset of tyranny or societal collapse is difficult until the ability to dissent or act freely is lost.
  • Summary: Recognizing a tyrant is hard until freedoms are actively suppressed, as seen in 1930s Germany when citizens could no longer voice opposition to Hitler. The speaker hopes the US is not falling, but warns that economic instability, especially if the petrodollar system shifts, could cause rapid, severe inflation overnight. The conversation concludes with recommendations for future guests focused on child protection, security, and cyclical history.