All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot

February 28, 2026

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  • The market is shifting from debating *when* AI will impact cash flows to debating *if* those cash flows will remain durable, leading to a massive required margin of safety (lower multiples) for software stocks. 
  • The viral Citrini substack report, which predicted an AI-driven economic death spiral, is being treated with skepticism due to potential short-fund authorship and is viewed as a compelling but ultimately unproven science fiction narrative. 
  • The intense political polarization was highlighted during the State of the Union when Democrats refused to applaud President Trump on several widely popular, common-sense issues, such as prioritizing American citizens over illegal aliens. 
  • The effectiveness of President Trump's State of the Union address was attributed to his focus on 80-20 issues where the majority of Americans agree with his policy positions, contrasting sharply with Democratic opposition. 
  • The Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's emergency tariffs is viewed as a non-partisan affirmation of the judicial branch's role, though the administration is expected to immediately pursue tariffs under alternative legal bases like Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. 
  • A significant portion of the political dysfunction stems from both sides engaging in 'lawfare' and extremism, necessitating a return to bipartisan collaboration on core issues like border security and fiscal responsibility. 

Segments

AI Impact on Software Stocks
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(00:01:20)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic’s product announcements are directly causing market shocks across legal, cybersecurity, and legacy software sectors.
  • Summary: Anthropic’s legal plug-in announcement caused stocks like Thomson Reuters and LexisNexis to drop over 10% since February 3rd. Subsequent announcements regarding code security and COBOL modernization led to further sector-specific stock declines. IBM stock fell 13% following the COBOL announcement, reflecting fears about AI obsolescence in legacy systems.
Market Shift: When to If
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(00:03:08)
  • Key Takeaway: The market has fundamentally shifted from debating when AI will erode cash flows to debating if those cash flows will exist at all, demanding higher risk premiums.
  • Summary: When cash flows were considered confident, valuation was debated based on timing (the ‘when’ conversation). Now, due to event risk from AI, the market is in an ‘if’ mindset, questioning the durability of future earnings. This uncertainty forces investors to drastically lower P/E multiples, revenue multiples, and increase the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to demand a larger margin of safety.
Citrini Report Fallout and Analysis
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(00:07:38)
  • Key Takeaway: The viral Citrini report’s market impact is complicated by potential short-fund co-authorship, and the broader AI debate is characterized by competing, unproven science fiction narratives.
  • Summary: The fictional 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis report caused financial stocks to drop after speculating on AI agents eliminating interchange fees. A counter-argument suggests that the conversation around AI is currently more literary than analytical due to high uncertainty, referencing William Goldman’s adage that ‘Nobody knows anything.’ Prediction markets show low belief (around 12%) in the Citrini scenario actually materializing.
SaaS Predictability Erosion by AI
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(00:12:00)
  • Key Takeaway: AI erodes the historical predictability of SaaS metrics like Net Dollar Retention, transforming the sector from a ‘growth annuity’ to an uncertain category.
  • Summary: SaaS businesses were previously graded on predictable metrics like ARR and high Net Dollar Retention (e.g., 120%), making them reliable growth annuities. AI introduces unknowns regarding market disruption and pricing model changes, forcing investors to re-evaluate high multiples previously assigned to these companies. This uncertainty is why SaaS stocks are being compressed, even if the technology ultimately leads to abundance.
AI Productivity vs. Consumption Limits
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(00:14:23)
  • Key Takeaway: A profound economic question is whether the capacity to produce goods and services via AI will eventually exceed humanity’s inherent capacity to consume them.
  • Summary: Technological leverage usually lowers costs and increases consumption, but AI’s productivity shift might create a situation where production capacity outstrips consumer demand. Knowledge work itself might be a transitory phenomenon existing only between the advent of computing and the rise of AI. Jason Calacanis demonstrated personal productivity gains by deploying custom agents to automate SDR tasks and internal software builds.
Data Center Opposition and Energy Pledges
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(00:40:27)
  • Key Takeaway: President Trump’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge aims to ensure AI data center power needs are paid for by tech companies, mitigating local rate hikes and countering ‘BANANAS’ opposition.
  • Summary: The pledge requires major tech companies to fund their own power needs or utilize behind-the-meter generation, preventing residential electricity rates from increasing. This approach counters the ‘Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone’ (BANANAS) movement hindering infrastructure buildout. If US localities block data centers, the economic value and job creation will accrue to other nations, such as those in the Middle East.
State of the Union Reactions
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(00:52:12)
  • Key Takeaway: The State of the Union was highly effective because President Trump focused on 80-20 issues where the public overwhelmingly agrees, yet Democrats refused to applaud on nearly every point.
  • Summary: The 108-minute address focused on themes of strength, prosperity, and respect, with Trump claiming victories on inflation and border security. Democrats’ refusal to stand for common-sense measures, such as prioritizing American citizens over illegal aliens or acknowledging victims of crime, demonstrated extreme polarization. The speech’s effectiveness was reflected in high approval ratings among viewers polled by CNN and CBS.
SOTU Effectiveness and Polarization
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(00:58:34)
  • Key Takeaway: Trump’s State of the Union resonated because he focused on 80-20 issues where the public overwhelmingly agrees with his stance.
  • Summary: High effectiveness ratings for the State of the Union were reported by CNN and CBS viewers, driven by the President addressing issues where most Americans agree with the proposed policy. Democrats’ refusal to applaud these popular points is framed as evidence of their radicalism and extremism. The counter-punching philosophy of Trump is identified as a contributor to political breakdown, hindering bipartisan cooperation.
Science Corner: Reversing Aging
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(01:04:02)
  • Key Takeaway: The first human clinical trial using Yamanaka factors to rejuvenate retinal cells for blindness treatment has been approved by the FDA.
  • Summary: Yamanaka factors, Nobel Prize-winning proteins that reset the epigenetic clock in cells, are being delivered via AAV viruses into the eye to treat blindness from conditions like glaucoma. The production of these rejuvenating factors can be precisely controlled using the antibiotic doxycycline as an on/off switch. This trial marks the beginning of a major therapeutic revolution aimed at reversing aging by restoring the epigenome in human cells.
SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Analysis
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(01:10:14)
  • Key Takeaway: The Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs is unlikely to end tariff policy, as the Kavanaugh dissent provided a roadmap for using existing statutes like Section 122.
  • Summary: The 6-3 SCOTUS decision rebuked the specific executive action but did not address the refunding of $175 billion in collected duties, suggesting the policy itself may continue. Trump immediately invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act for temporary tariffs, buying time to substantiate claims under Sections 301 and 338. The hosts argue that the tariff experiment proved successful in exposing structural trade imbalances and should be implemented permanently.
Judicial Review and Executive Power
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(01:15:34)
  • Key Takeaway: The non-partisan nature of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling provides assurance that the system of checks and balances is functioning against executive overreach.
  • Summary: The court’s decision against the President, despite perceived political alignment of appointees, validates the judicial branch’s role in adjudicating law against the executive branch. This ruling underscores the importance of limiting unilateral executive power, whether concerning tariffs or student loan policies. The hosts advocate for Congress to ratify trade policies thoughtfully rather than allowing chaotic unilateral action by the executive.