All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Inside the Iran War and the Pentagon's Feud with Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael

March 6, 2026

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  • The current US military actions against Iran are framed by the administration as a limited operation focused on disarming the regime's terror sponsorship and nuclear capabilities, explicitly ruling out a protracted 'boots on the ground' scenario. 
  • The recent successful, swift military operations in Iran and Venezuela suggest a new, technologically advanced approach to warfare characterized by relaxed rules of engagement and overwhelming force, minimizing US casualties. 
  • The Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk due to the company's refusal to grant 'all lawful use' terms for military applications, particularly concerning autonomous weapons and surveillance, highlighting a fundamental philosophical conflict between AI developers and defense needs. 
  • Anthropic's leadership, particularly Dario, appears to be alienating both Republicans and progressive Democrats by attempting to dictate usage terms beyond lawful use and by avoiding political engagement that other major tech companies participate in. 
  • The rapid revenue growth of Anthropic, potentially adding $6 billion in ARR in a month, suggests that investors on the board might be overlooking governance issues due to the product's immediate success, especially with tools like Claude. 
  • Under Secretary of War Emil Michael detailed efforts to onshore critical defense supply chains, such as minerals and batteries, away from China dependency, and is actively reforming contracting bureaucracy to favor innovative, fixed-cost defense tech startups over traditional primes. 

Segments

Introduction of Guest Emil Michael
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(00:00:04)
  • Key Takeaway: Under Secretary of War Emil Michael, formerly of Team Uber, joins the ‘Besties’ for an emergency podcast.
  • Summary: Emil Michael, Undersecretary of War for Research and Engineering, is introduced as a guest. He previously worked closely with Travis Kalanick at Uber, where he was described as a fixer and rainmaker. The episode is framed as an emergency podcast requiring immediate release.
Current State of Iran War
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(00:02:30)
  • Key Takeaway: The US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and 40 senior officials, alongside a US submarine sinking an Iranian ship.
  • Summary: The joint US-Israel attack on Iran is on day six, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and significant Iranian casualties. A US submarine achieved the first torpedo kill since WWII off Sri Lanka. The stated goal is to stop terrorism and ICBM development, not regime change, though Hegseth noted the regime ‘sure did change’.
War Rationale and Duration
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(00:04:21)
  • Key Takeaway: The operation is expected to last weeks, not months, aiming to disarm Iran’s sponsorship of terror groups and nuclear development without a protracted occupation.
  • Summary: President Trump clarified the operation’s goal is disarmament of terror-sponsoring capabilities, not regime change, and anticipates it concluding in weeks. Emil Michael confirmed there is no scenario for a protracted ‘Afghanistan, Iraq II-like’ boots-on-the-ground conflict.
Geopolitical Context and China Deal
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(00:06:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Actions against Iran and Maduro are interpreted as creating maximal leverage for a ‘grand bargain’ negotiation with China regarding trade and semiconductors.
  • Summary: Friedberg posits that the timing of these conflicts aligns with upcoming high-stakes meetings with China in April. Disrupting oil supply chains (90% of which goes to China from Iran) provides the US leverage for negotiating better trade parity. A successful deal with China could be the administration’s crowning achievement.
New Approach to Warfare Technology
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(00:14:03)
  • Key Takeaway: Recent successful operations relied on highly trained military personnel and advanced technology, enabled by relaxed rules of engagement compared to past conflicts.
  • Summary: The smooth execution of operations like the one in Venezuela is attributed to lessons learned from the Global War on Terror and superior technology integration across space, air, land, sea, and cyber domains. Rules of engagement have been relaxed to allow commanders to use judgment to win, moving away from overly restrictive policies that hampered past efforts.
Drone Warfare and AI Fidelity
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(00:18:05)
  • Key Takeaway: The future of warfare is drone-on-drone combat, requiring AI for tasks like automatic target recognition and swarm control, though high-risk civilian targeting still requires human oversight.
  • Summary: The US deployed more drones in the past week than in its entire military history, signaling a shift toward unmanned systems. While AI is crucial for tasks like target recognition and managing drone swarms, the technology is not yet trusted for high-risk civilian targeting, requiring a scenario-by-scenario approach to autonomy.
Israel’s Influence and Defense Tech
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(00:28:55)
  • Key Takeaway: The US benefits from Israeli intelligence in Operation Epic Fury, and directed energy laser technology is rapidly improving for multi-layered defense against hypersonic threats.
  • Summary: The US decision-making is not seen as being captured by Israel; rather, Israeli intelligence capabilities are valuable allies in operations like the one against Iran. Directed energy lasers, which are improving rapidly, are part of a multi-layered defense strategy aimed at intercepting threats like hypersonic missiles at greater standoff distances.
Anthropic Conflict and Supply Chain Risk
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(00:41:19)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic was designated a supply chain risk after refusing to remove contractual restrictions on kinetic strike planning and mass surveillance, culminating after an executive inquired about Palantir’s involvement in the Maduro raid.
  • Summary: Anthropic, previously designated a winner under the Biden AI executive order, resisted terms allowing ‘all lawful use’ by the Department of War, citing concerns over autonomous weapons and surveillance. The trigger for the supply chain designation was Anthropic attempting to enforce its terms by inquiring about classified raid information, raising fears of model poisoning or service denial during critical moments.
AI Vendor Landscape and Risk
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(00:51:51)
  • Key Takeaway: Unlike Anthropic, Grok and Google have agreed to ‘all lawful use’ terms, while OpenAI is attempting to mediate, emphasizing that relying on a single vendor with subjective moral constraints poses an existential business risk.
  • Summary: Grok supports all lawful use cases, and Google is being integrated across unclassified and classified networks. Sam Altman of OpenAI attempted to negotiate on Anthropic’s behalf, highlighting the competitive dynamic among AI firms for talent. The core lesson is that relying on a single AI provider whose philosophy can change risks jeopardizing critical operations.
Anthropic’s Political Missteps
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(00:59:43)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic’s leadership is exhibiting irrational behavior by demanding exceptions for ‘black swan’ events, suggesting a desire for ultimate control over their technology’s use.
  • Summary: The discussion highlights that if a company does not want its products used by the Department of War, it should not sell to them, referencing Google’s past stance. A specific anecdote suggests Anthropic’s leadership required clearance for exceptions, even for hypothetical 9/11-like events, which the hosts found irrational. This posture is seen as potentially alienating all political constituents, including Democrats who fundamentally distrust Silicon Valley.
Valuing Anthropic Post-Controversy
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(01:02:22)
  • Key Takeaway: Despite the governance crisis, investors on the board might remain silent because Anthropic’s recent, absurdly fast revenue growth indicates ‘something’ is working, making it a ‘multiple bet’ rather than a ‘market value creation bet’ like Google.
  • Summary: If an investor were on Anthropic’s board, they would likely advise silence because the company added $6 billion in ARR in a month, which is absurdly successful. The hosts differentiate between Google as a market value creator (trillion-dollar base) and Anthropic as a multiple bet, projecting Anthropic could reach a $1.5 trillion market cap unless the current situation destroys the company. Anecdotal evidence suggests Anthropic’s Cowork product is fulfilling the promise of AI, though Google is expected to integrate similar capabilities soon.
AI Model Asymptote and Competition
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(01:05:07)
  • Key Takeaway: If all major AI models become functionally equivalent by October, the Department of War would prioritize price competition and rely on providers that offer reliability, likely excluding Anthropic due to its current posture.
  • Summary: If models asymptote, the Department of War would seek indifference to compete on price, requiring at least two reliable main providers. Emil Michael stated Anthropic would likely not be one of them given their current stance, leaving three other major players. Google holds a long-term strategic advantage because they do not have to pass on cloud margin costs, unlike Anthropic.
Anthropic’s Political Allegations
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(01:07:06)
  • Key Takeaway: Anthropic’s CEO claimed the Pentagon’s actions were due to not donating to the Trump administration, an accusation Emil Michael dismissed as internal psychosis, noting that other major tech firms have engaged politically.
  • Summary: The accusation was that Anthropic is being singled out for not ‘genuflecting’ or paying a ‘cover charge’ to the administration, unlike Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA. Emil Michael found this claim absurd, stating his priority is winning wars, not tracking political donations. He suggested the conflict stemmed from Anthropic’s internal antagonism toward the administration, possibly driven by their own AI strategy.
Defense Supply Chain & DARPA
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(01:11:14)
  • Key Takeaway: The US defense industrial base is in early days of domesticating critical mineral and battery supply chains, with the Office of Strategic Capital deploying $200 billion in lending authority to incentivize this shift away from China.
  • Summary: The US is early in reducing dependency on Chinese manufactured components, focusing first on critical minerals and then batteries, which are heavily outsourced. DARPA is exploring using biology to synthesize critical minerals to bypass messy refining processes, which could significantly speed up access to necessary materials. Warfare is shifting from large, expensive platforms to mass-attributable, low-cost systems, requiring the success of innovative defense tech startups.
Reforming Defense Contracting
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(01:16:05)
  • Key Takeaway: The Department of War is actively trying to dismantle the competitive advantage held by large primes by reforming requirements to be minimal and shifting contracts toward commercial, fixed-cost pricing models.
  • Summary: The traditional cost-plus contracting model incentivized contractors to fulfill overly complex requirements, leading to delays and cost overruns. Emil Michael is pushing for requirements reform, focusing on operational problems (e.g., missile range) and encouraging creative solutions from smaller firms. This shift aims to adopt fixed-cost and performance-based contracts, similar to commercial practices, to speed up innovation delivery.
China Threat Assessment
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(01:19:21)
  • Key Takeaway: China has executed the greatest military buildup in history over the last 15 years while the US was focused on counter-terrorism, but the US maintains a superior operational expertise and the best space layer technology.
  • Summary: While China has advanced significantly in areas like small mobile navies and hypersonics, the US has not been complacent regarding its core technological advantages. The US space layer remains the best in the world, but the gap must not be allowed to narrow. The hosts concluded that strong defense is critical for maintaining the freedom to pursue other goals, appreciating the protection provided by the defense apparatus.